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OT: The President of Poland died in air crash

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  • OT: The President of Poland died in air crash

    As you could hear, today the President of Poland and many highest polish officials died in a horrible air catastrophe near Smolensk.
    I want to present deepest condolences to all our Polish friends. Loss of life is tragedy, lost of many lives is a great tragedy, loss of high rank leaders lives is national tragedy...
    Let them rest in peace....



    Alex

    If you fire a rifle at the past, the future will fire a cannon at you.....

  • #2
    This is REALLY, REALLY bad!!!
    Such place, such time, such victims...
    My deepest condolances to the relatives and whole Poland.
    Kind regards
    Igor

    * My grandfathers WW2 memoirs - Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Hungary, 1944-1945.
    * On the question of "2 mil. rapes" by RKKA
    * Verdicts of RKKA Military Tribunals for crimes against civilians in 1945

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    • #3
      This was clearly pilot error but it also means a speedy withdrawal of old Russian equipment from Polish government service. Those 1960s Tupolevs have antiquated cockpit environments imposing excessive pilot workload with too many switches to set, too many instruments to monitor, too many checklists. The crews spend too much time going through checklists and throwing switches and not enough time looking out the window to watch for terrain and traffic.

      "Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a ugly brawl."
      --Frederick II, King of Prussia

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      • #4
        Speaking with a acquaintance of mine who spent much of his early career investigating fatal crashes of the Tu-154 he can assure that there is nothing wrong with the aircraft itself


        Recent events involving Tu-154:

        Donetsk (2006) - gross pilot error which lead to the aircraft stalling into the flat spin;
        Switzerland (2002) - controller mistake which lad to mid air collision;
        Irkutsk (2001) - pilot error (very similar circumstances on the currently available facts) on approach (it must be said that Tolmachevo approach is very tricky and it is probably the worst airfield in Russia by safety record);
        Black Sea (2001) - shot down by a Ukrainian missile;
        Moscow (2004) - blown up by suicidal bombers
        China (1999) - a Chinese licence built Tu154 blew up in mid air due to a fire in a fuel tank.

        As seen, one of them was because of a technical malfunction

        The Smolensk airfield where the runway is shared between an aircraft repair factory and the Russian air force base. The Airfield Approach has no modern ILS guidance system (to which the crew of the Presidential jet is used to) and is based on two directional radio beacons. The vertical limit of automatic approach is 60 meters with horisontal being 200 m. The aircraft in question was retrofitted (as the majority of Tu154Ms) with the automatic landing system allowing it to land in "the hands free" mode.

        Speaking of safety records, as it might be relevant. The B737 for example has a much worse safety record, but it does not show up , simply because each modification is deemed to be a separate type of aircraft. I have no idea whether anyone have done a calculation for the whole of 737 "family" in the same way as the Tu154
        Last edited by Erkki; 10 Apr 10, 20:11.
        “For there is nothing more serious than a lunatic when he comes to the central point of his lunacy.”

        Max Sterner

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        • #5
          The Smolensk/Katyn region is cursed. It's a vampire that even today calls for the blood of the best people that Poland has to offer. I wish a hole in the earth opened up so that hell could swallow it without a trace.

          "Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a ugly brawl."
          --Frederick II, King of Prussia

          Comment


          • #6
            Horrible tragedy and all my sympathy to the Polish nation.

            I have to wonder whose idea it was to have so many top people in the SAME plane!
            Last edited by joea; 10 Apr 10, 20:34.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by MonsterZero View Post
              The Smolensk/Katyn region is cursed. It's a vampire that even today calls for the blood of the best people that Poland has to offer. I wish a hole in the earth opened up so that hell could swallow it without a trace.
              Hoping that was a joke.
              "The first time those bastards encounter US Marines, I want it to be the most traumatic experience of their miserable lives."
              -Gen. James Mattis, USMC

              Psalms 144.1

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Erkki View Post
                The B737 for example has a much worse safety record, but it does not show up , simply because each modification is deemed to be a separate type of aircraft. I have no idea whether anyone have done a calculation for the whole of 737 "family" in the same way as the Tu154
                Compare the figures:

                Tu-154: 1015 total ships built, 66 ships or 0.7% of the total fleet involved in serious incidents


                B-737: 6,285 total ships built, 295 ships or 0.4% of the total fleet involved in serious incidents

                It is fair to say, according to aviation experts, that the Tu-154 has an average safety record, but I doubt it will be a better record than of the B-737, however you do the math. Your numbers don't add up.

                "Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a ugly brawl."
                --Frederick II, King of Prussia

                Comment


                • #9
                  What an awful tragedy...My deepest sympathy for all the families and friends involved and my deepest condolences to Polish nation...RIP and Godspeed
                  "Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few."- Sir Winston Churchill, about R.A.F. fighter pilots."
                  "It is well that war is so terrible, else we grow to fond of it." - Robert E. Lee

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by MonsterZero View Post
                    Compare the figures:

                    Tu-154: 1015 total ships built, 66 ships or 0.7% of the total fleet involved in serious incidents


                    B-737: 6,285 total ships built, 295 ships or 0.4% of the total fleet involved in serious incidents

                    It is fair to say, according to aviation experts, that the Tu-154 has an average safety record, but I doubt it will be a better record than of the B-737, however you do the math. Your numbers don't add up.

                    As my acquaintance is something of a expert himself

                    Where does your numbers come from?

                    For your entertainment

                    Are Russian planes more dangerous than Western ones? In the past 10 days, two Russian-built jets have crashed in Iran, killing a total of 185 people. On July 24, 17 people died when an Aria Airlines Ilyushin-62 skidded off the runway while landing at the city of Mashhad. On July 15, a Tupolev Tu-154 operated by Caspian Airlines crashed enroute from Tehran to Yerevan, Armenia, killing all 168 aboard. It was the fourth Tu-154 crash in Iran since 2002.

                    ....

                    using data from Ascend, a British outfit that advises the insurance industry. The plane with the worst ranking – that is, the most fatal accidents per number of hours flown – was not Russian. It was the earliest version of the Boeing 737. (Another Ilyushin plane, the Il-76, was second, and the Tu-154 was third)

                    http://www.businessweek.com/globalbi...ssian-mad.html

                    http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09...aircraft/1.htm

                    '
                    On the Guidance systems:

                    http://rt.com/Top_News/2010-04-10/la...ski-crash.html
                    Last edited by Erkki; 11 Apr 10, 03:25.
                    “For there is nothing more serious than a lunatic when he comes to the central point of his lunacy.”

                    Max Sterner

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                    • #11
                      Lets wait for official investigation of this crash. But what we have for now:
                      1. The airplane was thoroughly repaired 3 months ago. It got the most modern equipment (including navigation)
                      2. The weather was horrible for landing (strong fog coupled with light smoke). Visibility didn't exceed 500 m
                      3. The Polish crew was informed about weather conditions flying far away from the airfield
                      4. They decided to land in spite of it.
                      5. They made at least 3 attempts
                      6. During the last attempt a traffic controller saw their altitude to be lower than recommended glide path and told the crew to stop descend, but got no reply
                      7. A military transport plane trying to land there under the same weather conditions after 2 unsuccessful attempts went to the reserve airfield. If the polish crew did the same, you'd never read this thread....
                      8. As far as I know, the airfield has no enough equipment for safe landing under such a conditions and it was not a secret for the crew...

                      So, lets wait for official versions of this crash....

                      P.S. A twist of fate - today in Russia a day of Antiaircraft forces is celebrated
                      If you fire a rifle at the past, the future will fire a cannon at you.....

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Amvas, there are suspicions the crew was being pressured to land by the big shot politicians aboard who didn't want to be late for the Katyn event.

                        Also, I don't understand why the plane was flying with a wing pointed at the ground. The possibility of a mechanical failure should not be dismissed. Yes, I realize the plane had been overhauled but an overhaul guarantees nothing. On overhaul is a point by point inspection that's very tedious but it guarantees nothing. Factory new equipment has failed and will fail, it's just very unlikely in a well-maintained plane.
                        Last edited by MonsterZero; 11 Apr 10, 04:15.

                        "Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a ugly brawl."
                        --Frederick II, King of Prussia

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by MonsterZero View Post
                          Amvas, there are suspicions the crew was being pressured to land by the big shot politicians aboard who didn't want to be late for the Katyn event.
                          I gave facts, but not guesses.
                          Yes, I also heard this version, but lets wait until records of talks in the cockpit will be decrypted.

                          Also, I don't understand why the plane was flying with a wing pointed at the ground. The possibility of a mechanical failure should not be dismissed. Yes, I realize the plane had been overhauled but an overhaul guarantees nothing. On overhaul is a point by point inspection that's very tedious but it guarantees nothing. Factory new equipment has failed and will fail, it's just very unlikely in a well-maintained plane.
                          I think such a list could be seen because the pilot
                          a) lost orientation for a while (that usually can occur when visibility is poor enough)
                          b) the pilot tried to catch a landing ground direction.
                          In this case when an airplane tried to make a turn in such a manner (using ailerons instead of rudder) it causes airplane to list and loose altitude.

                          But all of this is only my guess...
                          If you fire a rifle at the past, the future will fire a cannon at you.....

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Satellite photo of the place

                            Marked first touch, wing touch and full touch of the earth

                            Regards
                            Alex
                            If you fire a rifle at the past, the future will fire a cannon at you.....

                            Comment


                            • #15


                              Mystery in the sky today in Smolensk!
                              Landing Tu-154...

                              I'm speechless
                              If you fire a rifle at the past, the future will fire a cannon at you.....

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