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Peak Oil and the Bundeswehr

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  • Peak Oil and the Bundeswehr

    The German blogosphere has been active following the leak of a confidential report by a think tank of the Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces). The Future Analysis Department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center’s report deals with the issue of peak oil, and if was probably withheld from publication due to its potentially explosive analysis.

    The concept of “peak oil” refers to the point at which oil production reaches its maximum and then levels off followed by a gradual decline. Because so much of the world’s reserves are in Saudi Arabia, and the Saudis are tight-fisted with precise information on those reserves, it’s hard to calculate when the world will hit the peak oil line. There is growing concern in official circles that we are approaching that point. For example, the British government has recently labeled concerns about peak oil as being alarmist, while the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has privately been canvassing experts for opinions and advice on peak oil contingency plans.

    Contingency planning is in order, if the Bundeswehr is right. The report suggests that the likely peak oil date is 2010 – right now – and that the effects of peak oil on market and prices will begin to show in ten to fifteen years. One of the reasons the effect will be delayed will be the difficulty in separating short term market ups and downs from the long-term structural tightening of supplies. Once that begins however, the Germans expect some dire results.

    Reduction in International Trade: The movement of the overwhelming majority of ...




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  • #2
    This section's name should be changed from “Great History” to “Left Wing Crackpot Conspiracy Theories.”

    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
      This section's name should be changed from “Great History” to “Left Wing Crackpot Conspiracy Theories.”
      The study mentioned really existis. That is no conspiracy or theory.
      But it is based on a worst case scenario.

      The bottom line of the study is that Germany should readjust its foreing politics so it can secure the supply of recources. As a short and mid term measure.
      The long term measure would be to get more or completly independant to foreign oil imports.

      Nothing we haven't seen from other sources allready.

      New is only the fact that something like this paticular study originates from an official part of the German administration.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by schnuersi View Post
        The study mentioned really existis. That is no conspiracy or theory.
        But it is based on a worst case scenario.

        The bottom line of the study is that Germany should readjust its foreing politics so it can secure the supply of recources. As a short and mid term measure.
        The long term measure would be to get more or completly independant to foreign oil imports.

        Nothing we haven't seen from other sources allready.

        New is only the fact that something like this paticular study originates from an official part of the German administration.
        My comment was directed at the general theme of the "Great History" section. One author, in particular, spews out a steady stream of idiotic left-wing nonsense about impending disasters like oil tsunamis.

        M. King Hubbert's "Peak Oil" theory and its counterpart, Limitless Abiogenic Oil, are the twin darlings of Internet Armchair Petroleum Engineers... And both theories are almost as bogus as anthropogenic global warming.

        Peak Oil is another one of those "Bear in the Woods" theories. The "bear" is always just out of sight in the "woods." If people don't conform to the demands of the Enviromarxist nitwits some disaster is just around the corner. As years and decades go by... That disaster is always just around the corner. The "bear" is always just out of sight in the "woods." Peak Oil resides exclusively in the delusional world of Malthusians.

        That said... The Earth's crust contains a finite, but very large, volume of sedimentary rock. And a finite, but very large, portion of those sedimentary rocks comprise sedimentary basins in which oil and natural gas formed, matured and migrated into reservoir rocks suitable for oil and gas extraction. There will come a time when alternatives to oil become economically superior to oil. I have no idea when that will occur; but I am certain that the free market will have already delivered that alternative by the time these trends begin to reverse...

        Proved oil reserves minus annual production have almost doubled since 1980 and the trend-line has a strong positive slope (R^2=0.93, +20.5 Bbbl/yr)...



        Apart from periodic spikes, the inflation-adjusted price of oil will be somewhere between $20 to $50 per barrel in 2008 dollars for the foreseeable future. The current price would be about $50 instead of $70 to $80, if the dollar had not nose-dived in response to Obamanomics.



        The big spikes are caused by two things: Supply disruptions (1973-1979) and demand surges (2003-2008). It is possible that the long-term inflation-adjusted price of oil will stabilize above $50/bbl; but this will more likely be the result of the emergence of Red China, India and other developing economies than it will be due to "Peak Oil."

        However, there is something even more important than the price of oil...

        Despite the climb in oil prices over the last 35 years, the US derives almost three times as much inflation-adjusted GDP per barrel of oil consumed now than it did in 1973.



        The United States is currently deriving three times as much wealth per barrel of oil consumed than it did in 1973. That could not happen if we were approaching some sort of Peak Oil disaster.

        The "energy density", portability, transportability, extant infrastructure and relative abundance of hydrocarbons is not matched by any other source of energy...



        The answer is not in using less energy. The answer is in deriving more wealth from the energy that we do use and in expanding the amount of energy that we can exploit in generating even more wealth. Gov'ts cannot deliver energy sources from which the marketplace can create more wealth. Only the free market can deliver energy sources from which the marketplace can create more wealth.
        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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