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What If They Sign A Peace Treaty And Don?t Invite Us?

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  • What If They Sign A Peace Treaty And Don?t Invite Us?

    Events are taking some interesting and unexpected turns in the Afghan-Pakistan area. First, some background.

    Waziristan is the Pakistani western border region largely dominated by various tribal factions including a lot of Taliban and al-Qa’ida sympathizers. When some of the gangs in South Waziristan got uppity last year, Pakistan ran an offensive into the Swat Valley which slapped them around pretty convincingly. Thus year we were hoping for a similar offensive into North Waziristan, but Pakistan has nixed the idea, to our displeasure.

    One of the strongest Taliban groups active in North Waziristan and southern Afghanistan is that run by Siraj Haqqani. Pakistan has supported Haqqani for years, using him and his network as an intelligence-gathering and irregular combat counter-balance to Indian influence in Afghanistan and the India-Pakistani border region. Pakistan still considers India its principal threat and sees the growing influence of India in Afghanistan as worrisome in the extreme.

    Pakistan doesn’t want to invest the resources in a campaign against North Waziristan because:
    It will weaken the Pakistani Army units facing India.
    It will destroy an asset (the Haqqani network) Pakistan has worked hard to develop.
    It will leave Pakistan without the means to influence affairs in Afghanistan after a US departure.

    So instead, Pakistan is trying to broker a deal reconciliation between Haqqani and Karzai’s government in Kabul in return for Haqqani severing ties with al-Qa’ida. This would involve some pretty tricky side-negotiations, like where to relocate the al-Qa’ida fighters currently in North Waziristan. (They would probably be removed from ...


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