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South Pole Has Warmest Year on Record -- Averaging -54.2 F

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  • South Pole Has Warmest Year on Record -- Averaging -54.2 F

    Yet another reason to stop getting hysterical about the climate:

    The South Pole experienced its warmest year on record in 2009, according to newly released data from the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station: a bone-chilling minus 54.2 degrees Fahrenheit.
    This makes it the warmest year on record since 1957, when temperature [COLOR=blue ! important][COLOR=blue ! important]records[/COLOR][/COLOR] began at the South Pole, as was reported by Peter Rejcek, an editor for The Antarctic Sun, a part of the U.S. Antarctic Program funded by the National Science Foundation. The previous record high was minus 54 F, recorded in 2002, according to Tim Markle, senior meteorologist at the South Pole Station in Antarctica.
    http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/...-warmest-year/
    Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

  • #2
    Why do the Gorebots make this so easy?

    Amundsen-Scot Station (90.0S, 0.0E AKA The South Pole)...



    All you have to do, is to look up the data... GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, Station List Search: (90.0 S,0.0 E)... More often than not, these people are massaging the data to get the result they want; or just making things up.

    The average annual temperature at the South Pole was warmer in 2002 than it was in 2009...
    2002: -47.66 C -53.79 F
    2009: -47.93 C -54.274 F

    The coldest annual average annual temperature at the South Pole was recorded in 1983 (-50.84 F, -59.51 F).

    The record only goes back to 1957. Does anyone know how often record highs and record lows should be broken in such a short time series?
    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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    • #3
      Not only is the warmest year of record false, but the linear trend-line is negative...

      Last edited by The Doctor; 11 May 10, 19:49.
      Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
        [...]

        The record only goes back to 1957. Does anyone know how often record highs and record lows should be broken in such a short time series?
        At a record length of 53 years, there is a 2% chance of setting a new record high in the 53rd year.

        The cumulative probability says that 5 record highs should have been set between 1957 and 2009.

        Only four record highs were actually set during that period...
        1957 -48.92 C (1 record statistically expected)
        1958 -48.35 C (2 records statistically expected)
        1988 -46.90 C (4 records statistically expected)
        2002 -47.66 C (4 records statistically expected)

        The 1988 record was late (statistically speaking). The 3rd record high "should" have occurred between 1963 and 1974. A fifth record high has been "statistically expected" since 2007. So, even if the claim in the article was true, it wouldn't have been statistically significant.
        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

        Comment


        • #5
          I can't believe I didn't catch this before...

          I didn't even have to look the data up...
          The South Pole experienced its warmest year on record in 2009, according to newly released data from the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station: a bone-chilling minus 54.2 degrees Fahrenheit.

          This makes it the warmest year on record since 1957, when temperature records began at the South Pole, as was reported by Peter Rejcek, an editor for The Antarctic Sun, a part of the U.S. Antarctic Program funded by the National Science Foundation. The previous record high was minus 54 F, recorded in 2002, according to Tim Markle, senior meteorologist at the South Pole Station in Antarctica...
          -54 is warmer than -54.2.

          I checked the Live Science article. It has different numbers than the Fox News article. So I checked the original source. It had different numbers than Live Science.
          Fox News: 2002/-54 F 2009/-54.2 F
          Live Science: 2002/-54.4 F 2009/-54.2
          Antarctic Sun: 2002/-54.3 2009/-54.2

          All of which are wrong.
          The Actual Data: 2002/-53.8 F 2009/-54.3 F

          2009 was 0.1 F cooler than all three articles indicate and 2002 was 0.2 to 0.6 F warmer than the three articles indicate.

          Fox News actually came closest to the real numbers and actually showed 2002 being warmer than 2009; yet still reported the original article's erroneous claim.
          Last edited by The Doctor; 12 May 10, 06:17.
          Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

          Comment


          • #6
            A proper debunking of the original source...

            This is from the Antarctic Sun, a publication of the United States Antarctic Program and the National Science Foundation...
            Highs and lows
            South Pole experiences warmest year on record in 2009

            By Peter Rejcek, Antarctic Sun Editor
            Posted April 30, 2010

            The average temperature at the South Pole was a bone-chilling minus 47.9 degrees Celsius (minus 54.2 Fahrenheit) in 2009. It was also the warmest year on record since 1957, when temperature records began at South Pole.

            Last year beat out the previous record in 2002 by one-tenth of a degree centigrade, according to Tim Markle, senior meteorologist at the South Pole Station...

            [...]

            LINK
            Why do the Gorebots make this so easy?

            Amundsen-Scot Station (90.0S, 0.0E AKA The South Pole)...



            All you have to do, is to look up the data... GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, Station List Search: (90.0 S,0.0 E)... More often than not, these people are massaging the data to get the result they want; or just making things up.

            The average annual temperature at the South Pole was warmer in 2002 than it was in 2009...
            2002: -47.66 C -53.79 F
            2009: -47.93 C -54.27 F
            The coldest annual average annual temperature at the South Pole was recorded in 1983 (-50.84 F, -59.51 F).

            The record only goes back to 1957. Does anyone know how often record highs and record lows should be broken in such a short time series?

            At a record length of 53 years, there is a 2% chance of setting a new record high in the 53rd year...
            The probability, pn(1), that the nth observation of a series xm= x1, x2, … xn has a higher value than the previous observations [pn(1) = Pr(xn > xi |i < n)] can be expressed as:
            pn(1)= 1/n
            provided the values in series are iid random variables.
            (Benestad, 2003)
            The cumulative probability says that 5 record highs should have been set between 1957 and 2009.
            Only four record highs were actually set during that period...
            1957 -48.92 C (1 record statistically expected)
            1958 -48.35 C (2 records statistically expected)
            1988 -46.90 C (4 records statistically expected)
            2002 -47.66 C (4 records statistically expected)
            The 1988 record was late (statistically speaking). The 3rd record high "should" have occurred between 1963 and 1974. A fifth record high has been "statistically expected" since 2007. So, even if the claim in the article was true, it wouldn't have been statistically significant. Four record lows were also set during this period (1957, 1959, 1976 and 1983)... Pretty well right on statistical schedule. The South Pole is actually due for its 5th record high and low.



            Probability of Annual Record Temperatures at Amundsen-Scott Station.

            Here's another kicker... Not only is the warmest year of record false, but the linear trend-line is negative...




            And the Gorebots accuse us of cherry-picking!!!

            Doesn't anyone ever check their work before publishing?

            Reference:
            R. E. Benestad. How often can we expect a record event? CLIMATE RESEARCH. Vol. 25: 3–13, 2003
            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

            Comment


            • #7
              Now where did I put that SPF 100 seal oil? I need some Vitamin Dee!
              Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

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