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  • No "statistically significant" global warming since 1995...

    A couple of weeks ago, Dr. Phil Jones, the former director of the East Anglia University Climatic Research Unit and central figure in the Climategate scandal, made a few interesting comments to the press...
    Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995

    By Jonathan Petre
    Last updated at 5:12 PM on 14th February 2010

    [...]

    He further admitted that in the last 15 years there had been no ‘statistically significant’ warming, although he argued this was a blip rather than the long-term trend.

    The Daily Mail
    The no "statistically significant" warming since 1995 comment certainly was a bombshell... But, what exactly does he mean by "statistically significant"?

    A plot of the HadCRUT3 temperature series since 1995 certainly seems to show a warming trend...



    Fig. 1: HadCRUT3 1995-2009

    However, this trend is not "statistically significant." The correlation coefficient (or r-squared) value is only 0.13. This means that only 13% of the data fit the linear trend.Since 1998, the data show no trend at all...



    Fig. 2: HadCRUT3 1998-2009

    Since 2003, HadCRUT3 shows a statistically insignificant cooling trend...



    Fig. 3: HadCRUT3 2003-2009

    One of the "problems" with the way climate data are handled is in the obsession with applying linear trend lines to non-linear data.

    A Sine wave has no linear trend...



    Fig. 4: Sine Wave (From Wood For Trees)

    But... What happens if my data represent only a portion of a Sin wave pattern?



    Fig. 5: A partial Sine wave apparently has a very significant secular trend.

    The r-squared of a linear trend line of this partial Sine wave is 0.88... 88% of the data fit the trend line. This implies a very strong secular trend; yet, we know that in reality Sine waves do not have secular trends.

    If we take the entire HadCRUT3 series and apply a linear trend line, we get an apparent secular trend...



    Fig. 6: HadCRUT3 Temperature Anomaly 1850-2009

    The r-squared is 0.55... 55% of the data fit the secular trend. This implies that there is a real long-term warming trend.

    What happens to that secular trend if we expand our time series like we did with the Sine wave?

    The apparent secular trend vanishes in a puff of mathematics...



    Fig. 7: Moberg et al., 2005 Climate Reconstruction

    How can such a clear secular trend vanish like that? The answer is easy. Each "up hill" and each "down hill" leg of a Sine wave has a very strong secular trend. Unless you have enough data to see several cycles, you don't know if you are looking at a long-term trend or an incomplete cycle.

    If we take the HadCRUT3 series and compare the the period from 1912-1945 to the period from 1975-2009, we find that they are statistically indistinguishable (a fact Dr. Jones acknowledged in the Mail article)...



    Fig. 8: HadCRUT3 1912-1945 vs. 1975-2009

    We also find that Moberg's Medieval Warm Period reconstruction is very similar to the HadCRUT3 series...



    Fig. 9: HadCRUT3 vs. Moberg Medieval Warm Period Reconstruction
    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

  • #2
    Now let's expand our time series out even farther. Using the GISP2 ice core data from central Greenland we can see that over the last 50,000 years, there have been statistically significant warming trends...



    Fig. 1: GISP2: 50 kya to 1855 AD




    Fig. 2: GISP2: 1540 AD to 1855 AD




    Fig. 3: GISP2: 1778 AD to 1855 AD

    And there have been cooling trends ov varying statistical significance...



    Fig. 4: GISP2: 10 kya to 1855 AD




    Fig. 5: GISP2: 3.3 kya to 1855 AD

    What does all of this mean?

    It means that the Earth's climate is cyclical. It means that the climate changes we've experienced over the last 150 years are not anomalous in any way, shape, fashion or form.
    Last edited by The Doctor; 04 Mar 10, 15:58.
    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

    Comment


    • #3
      Love the graphs.

      Comment


      • #4
        Dagnabit! I have been trying to get this Earth warm since the global cooling scare of the 70's. So you mean to tell me all this time my efforts were wasted?

        Comment


        • #5
          Some would say you were more than successful.

          Confronting the Climate Challenge

          Quote:

          "The question is no longer whether global warming is upon us … but how we can rise to its challenge."

          "Our latest studies are helping the U.S. Congress weigh the pros and cons of bills that propose to set different limits on greenhouse gases. The Joint Program’s sophisticated number crunching and analyses show legislators to what extent their emission targets will slow global warming and how associated rules may affect the economy. Our analyses provide detailed scenarios describing the impacts on different segments of society resulting from different costs of controlling emissions of greenhouse gases."

          End Quote. Link: http://globalchange.mit.edu/cover/cl...challenge.html

          And this from the Washington Post.

          MIT Group Increases Global Warming Projections
          Report: High odds of warming over 5°C (9°F) if no action


          Quote:

          New research from MIT scientists shows that in the absence of stringent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, 21st century climate change may be far more significant than some previous climate assessments had indicated.

          The new findings, released this month by MIT's Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, showed significantly increased odds that by the end of the century warming would be on the high end of the scale for a so-called "no policy scenario" as compared with similar studies completed just six years ago. The main culprits: the cycling of heat and carbon dioxide in the climate system are now better understood and projections of future greenhouse gas emissions have increased.

          The results also showed that even if nations were to act quickly to reduce emissions, it is more likely that warming would be greater than previous studies had shown. However, the increase in projected temperatures under the "policy scenario" was not as large as for the no policy scenario.

          End Quote. Link: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/cap..._scientis.html

          The Post even included a nice graph to illustrate our impending doom.

          Comment


          • #6
            Oh no!

            It's the "MIT... Wheel...of... Misfortune"!!!

            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

            Comment


            • #7
              Global Warming is simply nonsense. It is junk science and the recent scandals on data only validate this. In my lifetime alone I have witnessed fictional global crises come and go. These are (1) Malthusian Food Shortage, (2) Global Cooling, (3) Depletion of the Ozone, (4) and now Global Warming. There have been other comical sidebars such as the elimination of DDT via Rachel Carson's Silent Spring, all of which proved to be false, as well as the comical Y2K Bug.

              These crises form out of a psychosis of man in that he must always be in rebellion so that he can feel that he is not captive to his current condition. While this behavior is warranted for true captivity, it is not warranted when there is no actual captivity. I encourage others to read The Rebel by Albert Camus for a simple treatise of this psychosis.

              What many do not realize is how self-destructive this behavior is to our (the US economy) in terms of our global competitiveness. In order for an economy to produce it has to produce real things. That means working industries that either (1) manufacture something, (2) grow something, or (3) get something out of the ground. All other industries are simply overhead to those basic functions. Hysteria like Global Warming, Silent Spring, etc. are simply self-destructive in that we capitulate to countries like China and hence hasten our own decline.

              Saludos,

              Alatriste
              Last edited by Alatriste; 04 Mar 10, 16:43.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Alatriste View Post
                Global Warming is simply nonsense. It is junk science and the recent scandals on data only validate this. In my lifetime alone I have witnessed fictional global crises come and go. These are (1) Malthusian Food Shortage, (2) Global Cooling, (3) Depletion of the Ozone, (4) and now Global Warming. There have been other comical sidebars such as the elimination of DDT via Rachel Carson's Silent Spring, all of which proved to be false, as well as the comical Y2K Bug.

                These crises form out of a psychosis of man in that he must always be in rebellion so that he can feel that he is not captive to his current condition. While this behavior is warranted for true captivity, it is not warranted when there is no actual captivity. I encourage others to read The Rebel by Albert Camus for a simple treatise of this psychosis.

                What many do not realize is how self-destructive this behavior is to our (the US economy) in terms of our global competitiveness. In order for an economy to produce it has to produce real things. That means working industries that either (1) manufacture something, (2) grow something, or (3) get something out of the ground. All other industries are simply overhead to those basic functions. Hysteria like Global Warming, Silent Spring, etc. are simply self-destructive in that we capitulate to countries like China and hence hasten our own decline.

                Saludos,

                Alatriste
                You bring up some really good points. To maybe add a little bit from my small bag of observations-

                Envirowhackos are the worlds biggest hypocrites. Here in the Pacific Northwest, we have seen an ongoing struggle against the logging industry for many years now. As has been chronicled on the show 'Axemen', competition is fierce amongst the still active logging companies for scarce territory to harvest. Many have long since thrown in the towel and it is rediculous that the US imports lumber from other countries such as Russia (milled in Austria and Germany! Seeing all the inactive mills here, that one really burns me.). A quick trip here will soon prove to anyone that there is no shortage of good timber. In the meantime, the upper-middle class yuppies, who largely support the anti-logging activists, build 5,000 sqft McMansions and take day trips through the Mt. Hood National Forest in thier H2 and comment on how lovely it is and how grateful they are that it has not been logged.

                You see, they do not care if Siberia gets clear cut. They don't care if some factory in China spews pollutants. They don't live there, they don't have to see it and of course, it is not thier job on the line.

                It is the worst form of emotional displacement and utter hypocricy.
                Beware the man of one book.
                --Thomas Aquinas

                http://www.clementsmb.com

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Totenritter View Post
                  You bring up some really good points. To maybe add a little bit from my small bag of observations-

                  Envirowhackos are the worlds biggest hypocrites. Here in the Pacific Northwest, we have seen an ongoing struggle against the logging industry for many years now. As has been chronicled on the show 'Axemen', competition is fierce amongst the still active logging companies for scarce territory to harvest. Many have long since thrown in the towel and it is rediculous that the US imports lumber from other countries such as Russia (milled in Austria and Germany! Seeing all the inactive mills here, that one really burns me.). A quick trip here will soon prove to anyone that there is no shortage of good timber. In the meantime, the upper-middle class yuppies, who largely support the anti-logging activists, build 5,000 sqft McMansions and take day trips through the Mt. Hood National Forest in thier H2 and comment on how lovely it is and how grateful they are that it has not been logged.

                  You see, they do not care if Siberia gets clear cut. They don't care if some factory in China spews pollutants. They don't live there, they don't have to see it and of course, it is not thier job on the line.

                  It is the worst form of emotional displacement and utter hypocricy.
                  You are of course correct. And the logging industry is a perfect example of this. Others of less notoriety: (1) Machine shops in the US are closing at record rates due to regulation. (2) Half of the chrome shops in the US have closed over the last ten years due to regulation. None of this makes it to the media.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    So Doc, who did you **** off?

                    I mean, why are you here shouldn't you have a nice cozy job somewhere?

                    Great thread by the way.
                    Life is change. Built models for decades.
                    Not sure anyone here actually knows the real me.
                    I didn't for a long time either.

                    Comment

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