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Renewables overtaking fossil fuels in new power generation

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  • #16
    Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post

    In Germany, who like Oz, where solar has taken over a large part of the market, the commercial price has risen substantially due to the variability of solar power delivery. Too much solar being delivered forces conventional plants off line at serious cost, particularly large coal and oil fired ones. Idling a coal plant that takes days to start up or shut down is a tremendous cost.
    Then there's the amount of power delivered. It can often be more than the market can bear so the price is driven into the negative. Power companies make up the loss by charging more other times when there is a shortage.

    Using solar for base loading and having more than about 15% solar in your energy mix is a sure way to drive electrical prices sky high as has happened in Germany, Spain, Italy, and Australia.
    You've ignored my post, renewables have driven prices down... it's the reliance on coal and gas that keeps the prices up. It's that simple.
    It's become increasingly evident that coal generation is antiquated and cannot cope with the fluctuating energy demands, it takes them hours to meet the extra demand and they cannot shut down when demand drops...thus becoming expensive to run and maintain. Gas generation needs 20 to 30 minutes to generate demand, but it's very expensive to run. Pumped hydro takes less than 2 minutes, and large batteries less than a second. So if you want true flexible power, renewables can do that quite well. It's clear which one works more efficiently, but our government is lacking the foresight to invest in allowing greater capacity to transmit power across the grid.
    "In modern war... you will die like a dog for no good reason."
    Ernest Hemingway.

    Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, Or what's a heaven for?

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Achtung Baby View Post
      You've ignored my post, renewables have driven prices down... it's the reliance on coal and gas that keeps the prices up. It's that simple.
      It's become increasingly evident that coal generation is antiquated and cannot cope with the fluctuating energy demands, it takes them hours to meet the extra demand and they cannot shut down when demand drops...thus becoming expensive to run and maintain. Gas generation needs 20 to 30 minutes to generate demand, but it's very expensive to run. Pumped hydro takes less than 2 minutes, and large batteries less than a second. So if you want true flexible power, renewables can do that quite well. It's clear which one works more efficiently, but our government is lacking the foresight to invest in allowing greater capacity to transmit power across the grid.
      Which renewables specifically? Hydro isn't avialable everywhere. Solar is undependable in most areas and requires huge "sun arms" to produce anything useful, and wind power doesn't meet the needs of a heavily industrialized nation, either.

      Beyond that, none of them will keep the nations cars, trucks, aircraft, ships and railways moving, nor can they even begin to power and army, air force and navy.
      Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Achtung Baby View Post
        You've ignored my post, renewables have driven prices down... it's the reliance on coal and gas that keeps the prices up. It's that simple.
        It's become increasingly evident that coal generation is antiquated and cannot cope with the fluctuating energy demands, it takes them hours to meet the extra demand and they cannot shut down when demand drops...thus becoming expensive to run and maintain. Gas generation needs 20 to 30 minutes to generate demand, but it's very expensive to run. Pumped hydro takes less than 2 minutes, and large batteries less than a second. So if you want true flexible power, renewables can do that quite well. It's clear which one works more efficiently, but our government is lacking the foresight to invest in allowing greater capacity to transmit power across the grid.
        You're wrong. What's driving prices down is the government is massively subsidizing solar to the tune of about $2.8 billion a year.

        https://www.afr.com/news/politics/re...0170313-guwo3t

        https://stopthesethings.com/2018/06/...alth-transfer/

        http://catallaxyfiles.com/2018/02/07...mpetitiveness/

        You are correct, coal is on it's way out. Natural gas is far cheaper and cleaner to use. Natural gas peaking plants typically go on or off line in about 10 minutes. They are also anywhere from 5 to 15 times more efficient than solar with storage simply because solar has such a low efficiency overall. In Arizona, arguably one of the best places for solar, the typical capacity factor (that is the amount of power per day the plant can generate per rated capacity) is around 20 to 25%. That is, a 100 MW solar plant generates 20 to 25 MW of power per day. Therefore, to supply 100 MW days of power you need 400 to 500 MW of installed solar. Then you need a storage system that can hold about 200 to 250 MW of that power for use when the plant isn't producing minimum. That's when the weather cooperates.

        Solar is expensive, and compared to natural gas or nuclear it's horribly inefficient.

        Here in the US I've compared the largest solar plant to the largest nuclear plant: Ivanpah California v. Palo Verde Nuclear Arizona. Palo Verde on an annual basis is 45 times more efficient. Palo Verde cost about five times as much to build as Ivanpah, but its efficiency is so much higher that it blows Ivanpah away completely on low cost energy.
        Natural gas to solar is the same way. It's about ten times more efficient and natural gas plants are cheaper to build than the equivalent in solar and storage, even with the lowest available prices.

        Another thing is that with reliable generation you don't need a massive "Smart" grid costing tens to hundreds of billions of dollars either.

        Comment


        • #19
          Gas is not cheaper here in Australia, in order to meet export targets the suppliers have left us chronically short on supply, thus sending the price of it into ridiculous levels. It got to the point where the government had to intervene and potentially impose export restrictions if they continue to drain the national domestic market. Now we are in the ludicrous position where a couple of import terminals have been contemplated to sure up supplies.

          I'll throw in a graph too, seems to be the flavour for such discussions.

          gas-retail-price-index-data.jpg
          "In modern war... you will die like a dog for no good reason."
          Ernest Hemingway.

          Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, Or what's a heaven for?

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post

            You're wrong. What's driving prices down is the government is massively subsidizing solar to the tune of about $2.8 billion a year.

            https://www.afr.com/news/politics/re...0170313-guwo3t

            https://stopthesethings.com/2018/06/...alth-transfer/

            http://catallaxyfiles.com/2018/02/07...mpetitiveness/

            You are correct, coal is on it's way out. Natural gas is far cheaper and cleaner to use. Natural gas peaking plants typically go on or off line in about 10 minutes. They are also anywhere from 5 to 15 times more efficient than solar with storage simply because solar has such a low efficiency overall. In Arizona, arguably one of the best places for solar, the typical capacity factor (that is the amount of power per day the plant can generate per rated capacity) is around 20 to 25%. That is, a 100 MW solar plant generates 20 to 25 MW of power per day. Therefore, to supply 100 MW days of power you need 400 to 500 MW of installed solar. Then you need a storage system that can hold about 200 to 250 MW of that power for use when the plant isn't producing minimum. That's when the weather cooperates.

            Solar is expensive, and compared to natural gas or nuclear it's horribly inefficient.

            Here in the US I've compared the largest solar plant to the largest nuclear plant: Ivanpah California v. Palo Verde Nuclear Arizona. Palo Verde on an annual basis is 45 times more efficient. Palo Verde cost about five times as much to build as Ivanpah, but its efficiency is so much higher that it blows Ivanpah away completely on low cost energy.
            Natural gas to solar is the same way. It's about ten times more efficient and natural gas plants are cheaper to build than the equivalent in solar and storage, even with the lowest available prices.

            Another thing is that with reliable generation you don't need a massive "Smart" grid costing tens to hundreds of billions of dollars either.
            You will never win the argument because most people believe in global warming and if you factor in the cost based on what the global warming experts predict there are no practical alternatives to "renewables". It doesn't help that the majority of people still see big oil the way they hated Rockefeller and Standard Oil. It's a long standing tradition for americans to hate the people that provide them with cheap and efficient energy :-)

            Conservatives have lost the battle to the cultural Marxists. Every institution has been thoroughly compromised. In the case of the environmental movement is is much like when George Orwell said that socialist "don't love the poor they just hate the rich" only in the case of the environmental movement they don't love people they just hate corporations.
            We hunt the hunters

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by wolfhnd View Post

              You will never win the argument because most people believe in global warming and if you factor in the cost based on what the global warming experts predict there are no practical alternatives to "renewables". It doesn't help that the majority of people still see big oil the way they hated Rockefeller and Standard Oil. It's a long standing tradition for americans to hate the people that provide them with cheap and efficient energy :-)

              Conservatives have lost the battle to the cultural Marxists. Every institution has been thoroughly compromised. In the case of the environmental movement is is much like when George Orwell said that socialist "don't love the poor they just hate the rich" only in the case of the environmental movement they don't love people they just hate corporations.
              Well, when Tom Steyer, a billionaire into Progressive environmentalism, tried to get Arizona to go "green" with solar his multimillion dollar investment in Prop 127 was soundly defeated by over 70% of Arizona voters. He lost and lost decisively. The only way the environmentalists can win is to force this crap on people against their will or to bribe them with lots of OPM. Outside that, they stand no chance of winning the debate on solar and wind.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post

                Well, when Tom Steyer, a billionaire into Progressive environmentalism, tried to get Arizona to go "green" with solar his multimillion dollar investment in Prop 127 was soundly defeated by over 70% of Arizona voters. He lost and lost decisively. The only way the environmentalists can win is to force this crap on people against their will or to bribe them with lots of OPM. Outside that, they stand no chance of winning the debate on solar and wind.
                I hope you are right. Certainly the revolt in France is a good sign in some ways.
                We hunt the hunters

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by wolfhnd View Post

                  You will never win the argument...
                  ...
                  It's not an argument, coal is on the way out because it's uneconomical and we are investing in alternatives. Gas would be nice if it wasn't so expensive to buy. The ineptitude of the federal government has driven people to invest in alternatives to ease the burden, and we see the benefits in doing so. Economics is at work here, not ideology.
                  "In modern war... you will die like a dog for no good reason."
                  Ernest Hemingway.

                  Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, Or what's a heaven for?

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Achtung Baby View Post

                    It's not an argument, coal is on the way out because it's uneconomical and we are investing in alternatives. Gas would be nice if it wasn't so expensive to buy. The ineptitude of the federal government has driven people to invest in alternatives to ease the burden, and we see the benefits in doing so. Economics is at work here, not ideology.
                    I accept TAG's arguments on the economic issues. A lot of data today is compromised by people with an ideological agenda so you have to be careful.

                    It is also possible that more co2 is a good thing, I don't think the jury is out on that because the climate is basically not being studied only AGW.
                    We hunt the hunters

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by wolfhnd View Post

                      I accept TAG's arguments on the economic issues. A lot of data today is compromised by people with an ideological agenda so you have to be careful.

                      It is also possible that more co2 is a good thing, I don't think the jury is out on that because the climate is basically not being studied only AGW.
                      You two are the only ones here talking about agendas and ideology. The economic reality here in Australia is that coal is fast becoming a dinosaur and no longer an attractive investment.
                      "In modern war... you will die like a dog for no good reason."
                      Ernest Hemingway.

                      Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, Or what's a heaven for?

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Achtung Baby View Post

                        You two are the only ones here talking about agendas and ideology. The economic reality here in Australia is that coal is fast becoming a dinosaur and no longer an attractive investment.
                        I don't disagree, but solar isn't a substitute for it unless you are willing to pay on the order of $ .35 a KWH or about triple what you should for electricity.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Achtung Baby View Post

                          You two are the only ones here talking about agendas and ideology. The economic reality here in Australia is that coal is fast becoming a dinosaur and no longer an attractive investment.
                          Coal is poised to overtake iron ore as Australia's biggest export, already worth $61 billion in 2017-18. Australia produces 17 per cent of the world's metallurgical coal. Australia's economy will depend on coal even if it doesn't use it itself.

                          There have been a few hiccups on the way to a coal free power grid in Australia. In 2017 an eight hour blackout in South Australia left 2 million people in the dark and disrupted industry for two weeks. That comes on top of the fact that Australian Steel makers pay 5 to 10 times as more for electricity than their U.S. competition. Of course it isn't just industry. No coal policies has been expensive for Australian families. Household electricity prices have roughly tripled since 2000 in Australia.

                          Don't trust the media!

                          We hunt the hunters

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post

                            I don't disagree, but solar isn't a substitute for it unless you are willing to pay on the order of $ .35 a KWH or about triple what you should for electricity.
                            Solar will only do so much, that is reality. There is growing consensus for pumped hydro here, good thing is this is old tech... solar can make it even cheaper when combined. Coal was good while it lasted, gas cannot save us because we sell most of it overseas. Renewables is set to take up 80% of the electricity market by 2030 here if the growth continues at the current rate. People are seeing the savings and embracing it.
                            "In modern war... you will die like a dog for no good reason."
                            Ernest Hemingway.

                            Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, Or what's a heaven for?

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Achtung Baby View Post

                              Solar will only do so much, that is reality. There is growing consensus for pumped hydro here, good thing is this is old tech... solar can make it even cheaper when combined. Coal was good while it lasted, gas cannot save us because we sell most of it overseas. Renewables is set to take up 80% of the electricity market by 2030 here if the growth continues at the current rate. People are seeing the savings and embracing it.
                              Pumped hydro is not really cost effective compared to natural gas or nuclear. The problems with it are:

                              1. You need water. Most of the best places for solar are in deserts...
                              2. You don't get something for nothing. You use a big chunk of your generated electricity pumping water.
                              3. Solar is still horribly inefficient. As I pointed out to get 1 KW day of power (24 hours at 1 KW) you need an installed capacity of 4 to 5 KW.

                              When solar rises above about 30 to 40% of generation capacity you also get an unstable grid as Germany has learned.

                              As I pointed out, Australia has some of the highest electricity rates on the planet. So, people aren't getting a "savings." They're getting raped on the price of electrical power just as people in Germany, Italy, and Spain are. California has some of the highest rates in the US now thanks to heavy investment in solar.

                              http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-850419.html

                              http://notrickszone.com/2018/01/26/u...-to-blackouts/

                              https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...of-renewables/

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post

                                Pumped hydro is not really cost effective compared to natural gas or nuclear. The problems with it are:

                                1. You need water. Most of the best places for solar are in deserts...
                                2. You don't get something for nothing. You use a big chunk of your generated electricity pumping water.
                                3. Solar is still horribly inefficient. As I pointed out to get 1 KW day of power (24 hours at 1 KW) you need an installed capacity of 4 to 5 KW.

                                When solar rises above about 30 to 40% of generation capacity you also get an unstable grid as Germany has learned.

                                As I pointed out, Australia has some of the highest electricity rates on the planet. So, people aren't getting a "savings." They're getting raped on the price of electrical power just as people in Germany, Italy, and Spain are. California has some of the highest rates in the US now thanks to heavy investment in solar.

                                http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-850419.html

                                http://notrickszone.com/2018/01/26/u...-to-blackouts/

                                https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...of-renewables/
                                Up is down and left is right the ministry of truth is alive and well.
                                We hunt the hunters

                                Comment

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