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  • 125-year mini ice

    125-year mini ice age linked to the plague and fall of empires

    Winter was coming. In AD 536, the first of three massive volcanic eruptions ushered in a mini ice age. It coincided with an epidemic of the plague, the decline of the eastern Roman Empire, and sweeping upheavals across Eurasia.
    Now we have the first evidence that the disruption to climate continued a lot longer than a decade, as was previously thought. The extended cold period lasted until around 660, affecting Europe and Central Asia, and perhaps the rest of the world too.
    The work builds on research that used ice cores to identify three significant volcanic eruptions in the years 536, 540 and 547. Now Ulf Büntgen at the Swiss Federal Research Institute in Birmensdorf and his colleagues have used tree ring data from Europe and Central Asia to show that decades of cooler summers – in some cases 4 °C cooler – ensued, probably caused by volcanic particulates in the atmosphere.
    Over this time, average summer temperatures would have been roughly 2 °C below those from 1961 to 1990, the standard reference period for studies of this kind.

    This long cold spell coincided with a period of widespread social turmoil across Eurasia, including the plague sweeping across Eastern Europe, Chinese dynasties changing, the Slavs expanding across Europe, and the transformation of the eastern Roman empire into the Byzantine empire.
    “There was dramatic social, cultural, and political change in this period,” says Shaun Tougher, a historian at Cardiff University, UK, who was not involved in the research. “Perhaps aspects of the changes were exacerbated by a colder period.”
    Stress on societies

    “Suggesting climate caused complex events in human history like the fall of empires is controversial,” says geographer Francis Ludlow of Trinity College Dublin in Ireland. “Ultimately [though], there can be very little doubt that these sorts of abrupt climatic events place great stress on societies, and can sometimes tip them over the edge.”
    This could have helped speed the demise of what remained of the Roman empire, by then restricted to the Mediterranean, which lost land and power during the mini ice age. The shorter growing season would have affected crops, and this could have led to famine and made people more vulnerable to disease.
    “Such climatic disruption could have contributed to the movement of plague-bearing rodents into the empire,” says historian Doug Lee of the University of Nottingham, UK.
    It wasn’t just the Romans who suffered – the eastern Türk empire around modern-day Mongolia and the Northern Wei and Sui dynasties in China also fell during this time.
    ....
    https://www.newscientist.com/article...ll-of-empires/


    When climate isn't warming, it's cooling, which would you prefer?
    Last edited by G David Bock; 09 Feb 16, 15:40. Reason: fix title
    TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
    “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz
    Present Current Events are the Future's History

  • #2
    So, one Krakatoa and Gorebal Warming is toast...

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by G David Bock View Post
      125-year mini ice age linked to the plague and fall of empires

      Winter was coming. In AD 536, the first of three massive volcanic eruptions ushered in a mini ice age. It coincided with an epidemic of the plague, the decline of the eastern Roman Empire, and sweeping upheavals across Eurasia.
      Now we have the first evidence that the disruption to climate continued a lot longer than a decade, as was previously thought. The extended cold period lasted until around 660, affecting Europe and Central Asia, and perhaps the rest of the world too.
      The work builds on research that used ice cores to identify three significant volcanic eruptions in the years 536, 540 and 547. Now Ulf Büntgen at the Swiss Federal Research Institute in Birmensdorf and his colleagues have used tree ring data from Europe and Central Asia to show that decades of cooler summers – in some cases 4 °C cooler – ensued, probably caused by volcanic particulates in the atmosphere.
      Over this time, average summer temperatures would have been roughly 2 °C below those from 1961 to 1990, the standard reference period for studies of this kind.

      This long cold spell coincided with a period of widespread social turmoil across Eurasia, including the plague sweeping across Eastern Europe, Chinese dynasties changing, the Slavs expanding across Europe, and the transformation of the eastern Roman empire into the Byzantine empire.
      “There was dramatic social, cultural, and political change in this period,” says Shaun Tougher, a historian at Cardiff University, UK, who was not involved in the research. “Perhaps aspects of the changes were exacerbated by a colder period.”
      Stress on societies

      “Suggesting climate caused complex events in human history like the fall of empires is controversial,” says geographer Francis Ludlow of Trinity College Dublin in Ireland. “Ultimately [though], there can be very little doubt that these sorts of abrupt climatic events place great stress on societies, and can sometimes tip them over the edge.”
      This could have helped speed the demise of what remained of the Roman empire, by then restricted to the Mediterranean, which lost land and power during the mini ice age. The shorter growing season would have affected crops, and this could have led to famine and made people more vulnerable to disease.
      “Such climatic disruption could have contributed to the movement of plague-bearing rodents into the empire,” says historian Doug Lee of the University of Nottingham, UK.
      It wasn’t just the Romans who suffered – the eastern Türk empire around modern-day Mongolia and the Northern Wei and Sui dynasties in China also fell during this time.
      ....
      https://www.newscientist.com/article...ll-of-empires/
      No apologies for cutting out the political part of your post .

      This is actually old news. Tree ring analysis could have confirmed that, which was done by 1980 at the latest.

      I first heard about this eruption with relation to King Arthur. A Byzantine author, by the name of Procopius, first mentioned the skies going dark, with the resulting Plague of Justinian starting 541AD. Oddly enough, this is one of the very few external events that gives the KA myths a grain of plausibility. This is due to the date of his death around 540AD, and the preceding stated events of disease and darkness being actually true.
      How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
      Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

      Comment


      • #4
        Wasn't political, is a scientific fact. Climate is not stagnant, there is no "thermostat" that can be set to an ideal temperature range.

        This might be "old news", but relevant since there are factors of major climatic consequence outside of human influence or control.
        TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
        “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz
        Present Current Events are the Future's History

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
          So, one Krakatoa and Gorebal Warming is toast...
          Big enough rocks falling in from space can have a similar effect ...
          Comets and the Bronze Age Collapse

          http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/bronze.html
          TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
          “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz
          Present Current Events are the Future's History

          Comment


          • #6
            The Climatology conspiracists are getting desperate.
            Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
              The Climatology conspiracists are getting desperate.
              They have been ever since they foisted the ACC/AGW Ponzi scheme. They have no science nor meaningful data to stand upon, and a political (socialist) agenda to advance, using "the environment" concern as a tool of socialist restructuring that degrades the economy and lifestyle of the developed nations while hampering that of the developing nations. A very anti-life agenda claiming to be for life.

              Classic of the marxist~socialist "do gooders" to actually pursue a course that degrades human lifestyle quality while claiming to improve it.

              TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
              “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz
              Present Current Events are the Future's History

              Comment


              • #8
                I think the evidence is pretty clear that past climate events have been minimized to not distract from AGW.
                We hunt the hunters

                Comment


                • #9
                  I think the current issue and debate/heated argument is not merely about the natural fluxes of climate change, which for most rational folks is a given historical reality, BUT that for the first time in the earth's history and 'experience' it has to contend with the additional input from a populous and increasingly industrial urban humanity.

                  ps. A couple of my pagan Scandinavian 'king' ancestors are recorded as having been sacrified to the gods of the harvest at that time.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Wooden Wonder View Post
                    I think the current issue and debate/heated argument is not merely about the natural fluxes of climate change, which for most rational folks is a given historical reality, BUT that for the first time in the earth's history and 'experience' it has to contend with the additional input from a populous and increasingly industrial urban humanity.

                    ps. A couple of my pagan Scandinavian 'king' ancestors are recorded as having been sacrified to the gods of the harvest at that time.
                    The fact that we.only have high resolution instrumental data over the period of human industrialization also plays a factor in this.

                    Proxy data, like ice cores, tree rings, sediment cores, etc can only resolve climate change at decadal to centennial scales. Instrumental data can resolve climate change at monthly scales.

                    When you filter out higher frequency content, you attenuate the amplitude of the signal. This fact is routinely ignored when comparing modern to past climate changes. In the case of "hockey stick" climate reconstructions it is intentionally and willfully ignored. His is called fraud in the private sector.
                    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                      The fact that we.only have high resolution instrumental data over the period of human industrialization also plays a factor in this.

                      Proxy data, like ice cores, tree rings, sediment cores, etc can only resolve climate change at decadal to centennial scales. Instrumental data can resolve climate change at monthly scales.

                      When you filter out higher frequency content, you attenuate the amplitude of the signal. This fact is routinely ignored when comparing modern to past climate changes. In the case of "hockey stick" climate reconstructions it is intentionally and willfully ignored. His is called fraud in the private sector.
                      I don't think this can be stressed too much. Most people are really bad at statistical analysis including many scientist. When it comes to evaluating risk they are even worse. Studies have shown that people worry about things they can't not control more than those things like falling down stairs that are much more likely to kill them but are completely under their control. Their are risks with AGW but I don't think they are ever put in proper perspective.

                      AGW is real and it is very likely to get worse and will have negative consequences for the planet. For many people however the increased cost of energy that are presented as solutions poses a much more serious risk. Those people are of course the poor and low income segments of society. For most of the people who propose the solutions there is no risks associate with higher energy cost because they will not have to choose between paying the heating bill or going to the doctor. The vast majority of people however are totally oblivious to the relative risks.

                      The main reason that practical solutions like natural gas and nuclear are not looked at is that they require little government involvement. People who are attracted to the environmental movement are in general the same people who want an extensive government safety net. While it is true that industry has a terrible track record when it comes to providing safe environments the government has a terrible track record at prioritizing the risks it protects us from. Certainly we need regulation to protect us from irresponsible corporation but we also need a realistic understanding of which risks are relatively more important. Since the risks are not distributed uniformly the public policy debate becomes highly distorted.

                      The average middle class liberal has very little risk from increased energy cost and the average wealthy conservative has zero risk from AGW. Both however are at considerable risk of destabilizing society one by ignoring the dangers of economic hardship and the other by ignoring environmental policy.
                      We hunt the hunters

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by wolfhnd View Post
                        I don't think this can be stressed too much. Most people are really bad at statistical analysis including many scientist. When it comes to evaluating risk they are even worse. Studies have shown that people worry about things they can't not control more than those things like falling down stairs that are much more likely to kill them but are completely under their control. Their are risks with AGW but I don't think they are ever put in proper perspective.

                        AGW is real and it is very likely to get worse and will have negative consequences for the planet. For many people however the increased cost of energy that are presented as solutions poses a much more serious risk. Those people are of course the poor and low income segments of society. For most of the people who propose the solutions there is no risks associate with higher energy cost because they will not have to choose between paying the heating bill or going to the doctor. The vast majority of people however are totally oblivious to the relative risks.

                        The main reason that practical solutions like natural gas and nuclear are not looked at is that they require little government involvement. People who are attracted to the environmental movement are in general the same people who want an extensive government safety net. While it is true that industry has a terrible track record when it comes to providing safe environments the government has a terrible track record at prioritizing the risks it protects us from. Certainly we need regulation to protect us from irresponsible corporation but we also need a realistic understanding of which risks are relatively more important. Since the risks are not distributed uniformly the public policy debate becomes highly distorted.

                        The average middle class liberal has very little risk from increased energy cost and the average wealthy conservative has zero risk from AGW. Both however are at considerable risk of destabilizing society one by ignoring the dangers of economic hardship and the other by ignoring environmental policy.
                        Spot on, apart from this: "AGW is real and it is very likely to get worse and will have negative consequences for the planet."

                        Human activities do affect climate change and our net effect has been on the warming side over the past 100-200 years. However, there is no evidence that our net effect has been significant, likely to get worse or bad for the "planet." That said, we are altering the carbon cycle by releasing CO2 from geologic sequestration. We don't know if this will be good, bad or indifferent to our future well being. Gradually switching from coal to natural gas and nuclear will drastically reduce our impact on the carbon cycle without killing millions of poor people.
                        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                          Spot on, apart from this: "AGW is real and it is very likely to get worse and will have negative consequences for the planet."

                          Human activities do affect climate change and our net effect has been on the warming side over the past 100-200 years. However, there is no evidence that our net effect has been significant, likely to get worse or bad for the "planet." That said, we are altering the carbon cycle by releasing CO2 from geologic sequestration. We don't know if this will be good, bad or indifferent to our future well being. Gradually switching from coal to natural gas and nuclear will drastically reduce our impact on the carbon cycle without killing millions of poor people.


                          Exactly but I bet you don't belong to the Pickings Plan movement

                          http://www.pickensplan.com/
                          We hunt the hunters

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by wolfhnd View Post


                            Exactly but I bet you don't belong to the Pickings Plan movement

                            http://www.pickensplan.com/
                            The Pickens Plan is a gimmick from a guy with a lot of natural gas to sell.

                            Wind works well where it works well... The Llano Estacado is the main reason wind works well in Texas.

                            I'm all for natural gas powered vehicles. At $2/MCF natural gas in the Gulf of Mexico is worthless. They just don't make sense when oil is below $70/bbl.
                            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                              The Pickens Plan is a gimmick from a guy with a lot of natural gas to sell.

                              Wind works well where it works well... The Llano Estacado is the main reason wind works well in Texas.

                              I'm all for natural gas powered vehicles. At $2/MCF natural gas in the Gulf of Mexico is worthless. They just don't make sense when oil is below $70/bbl.
                              Politics is full of gimmicks. I don't know about Pickens himself but I don't see the oil companies or anyone else who has a grass roots effort to provide alternatives to wind and solar.

                              I don't like wind it's ugly, noisy, and requires backup.
                              We hunt the hunters

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