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  • SWAGGING Pandora

    SWAG: Scientific Wild Assed Guess.

    Some people sit around thinking about meaningless trifles like their mortgage or their golf scores. When I;m working around the house, I think about the logistical considerations of supplying Cameron's world of Pandora.

    We only really know four things for certain:
    1. The Earth is out of energy sources.

    2. Unobtainium now keeps the Earth going.

    3. It takes six years to get from Earth to Pandora.

    4. Pandora is the site of a large and robust operation with a great deal of heavy machinery, military weapons systems and a lots of staff.

    From this we posit that Pandora requires fairly frequent deliveries, although we do not know how much unobtainium one of the supply vessels carries back with it.

    Figuring on a supply ship arriving and departing every six months carrying parts, foodstuffs, lubricants, clothing, ammo and all of the other consumables needed, the corporation needs a fleet of 24 ships operating in an endless daisy chain back and forth to the Pandora. In addition, they need a spare or two to allow for maintenance downtime and unforeseen problems, so twenty six ships minimum for that plan.

    It could be done with fourteen if yearly trips are logistically acceptable, but that seems like a fairly long time without anything coming in by way of replenishment, and requires Pandora to expend a lot of resources storing up at least two years worth of everything to allow for the huge delay if a ship doesn't make the scheduled run and the yearly supply run doesn't show up. So i'm going with the twenty-six ship fleet.

    Might just be me, but that seems like a huge amount of resources tied to a signle operation, and a lot of work just so Cameron could remake "John Smith and Pochahontas" in 3D.

    There are some very good minds on this forum, so I'm hoping to hear whatever theories or SWAG's you come up with!

    Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

  • #2
    Hmmm...

    Looks like this is too cerebral for this crowd. Funny, really, because they believe in fantasies like global warming, ghosts and UFO's, but...
    Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

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    • #3
      Umm, it's blatantly obvious that the cost of obtaining unobtainium would be more than the price paid for it. So either it's not something where cost matters, or they've found a way to build spaceships and colonies for ten cents on the dollar.

      OR it's a 3D comic book and we don't have to worry about that kind of thing.

      (I watched it again just last week to refresh myself on the creationist aspects.)
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      • #4
        Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
        Umm, it's blatantly obvious that the cost of obtaining unobtainium would be more than the price paid for it. So either it's not something where cost matters, or they've found a way to build spaceships and colonies for ten cents on the dollar.

        OR it's a 3D comic book and we don't have to worry about that kind of thing.

        (I watched it again just last week to refresh myself on the creationist aspects.)
        The economics of this mining operation don't merit investment yet...


        Return to the Moon: Exploration, Enterprise, and Energy in the Human Settlement of Space
        by Harrison Schmitt

        Former NASA Astronaut Harrison Schmitt advocates a private, investor-based approach to returning humans to the Moon―to extract Helium 3 for energy production, to use the Moon as a platform for science and manufacturing, and to establish permanent human colonies there in a kind of stepping stone community on the way to deeper space. With governments playing a supporting role―just as they have in the development of modern commercial aeronautics and agricultural production―Schmitt believes that a fundamentally private enterprise is the only type of organization capable of sustaining such an effort and, eventually, even making it pay off.

        http://www.amazon.com/Return-Moon-Ex.../dp/0387242856

        Since real resources on a real planetary body only 240,000 miles away are currently economically unobtainable... No amount of SWAG'ing can make fictional resources on a fictional planetary body 258,659,523,814,930 miles away economically viable.
        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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        • #5
          Given the premise and the technology, I'd say "Dances with Aliens" would have followed a totally different outcome.

          The survey people show up, discover this wondrous element in abundance. The corporation keeps things quiet, there's no other colonization in the system going on. They set up a "mining town" on a nearby planet other than the one with the unobtainum.

          Then they bring in mining ships to collect the unobtainum after which they hit Pandora with several large asteroids killing all life on it, smashing it into large chunks that can then be easily collected and refined. They finish and leave, announcing there's "Nothing to see in that system..."

          Then the do-gooder bleeding heart researchers find out that the company did that and try to sue or something. The courts say that the system is outside their jurisdiction and the corporation was free to do whatever they wanted there...
          There are loud protests that the government puts down with lots of gas and clubbing because they really wanted the unobtanium for stuff too.
          Last edited by T. A. Gardner; 01 Dec 15, 15:46.

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          • #6
            The thing about the unobtanium is that it is a room temp superconductor, necessary for antimatter reactors. The pre unobtanium antimatter drives used cryogenic superconductor containment, so the unobtanium is useful mostly for spacecraft, and the more unobtanium, the more spacecraft you get.
            One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions - Admiral Grace Hopper

            "The eunuch should not take pride in his chastity."
            Wu Cheng'en Monkey

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Chukka View Post
              The thing about the unobtanium is that it is a room temp superconductor, necessary for antimatter reactors. The pre unobtanium antimatter drives used cryogenic superconductor containment, so the unobtanium is useful mostly for spacecraft, and the more unobtanium, the more spacecraft you get.
              And you still have to build them. The one in the movie was a Robert Redford-model, pretty to look at but not very practical.
              Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
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              • #8
                Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
                And you still have to build them. The one in the movie was a Robert Redford-model, pretty to look at but not very practical.
                Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
                It's always about the money.
                Resource economics always are about the money.
                Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                  Resource economics always are about the money.
                  Gee, I didn't know that.
                  Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
                  Hyperwar, Whats New
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                  The best place in the world to "work".

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                  • #10
                    So where is "Unobtainium" on the Periodic Table of Elements? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periodic_table

                    OR, if it is a compound molecule it's formula is .... ???

                    Like most of what is called "science fiction" out of HollowWood the past few decades, Camaron's pile is high on the fiction, negative on the science and a pile of crap!
                    My first clue was how my many 'libtard" acquaintances were creaming their shorts/panties over this being the best product of humankind since 'sliced bread', or the bong ...
                    So how much is someone willing to pay me to endure watching this piles of stink a second time ??? !!!
                    So-called special effects and scenary-sets might have had a slight owh-ah factor, but over all, waste in terms of real mental meat. But the libtard-gorebots love the pseudo-enviro, anti-military, anti-corporate, yeah indigenous peoples claptrap of memes, ...
                    ... so I endured a first viewing. Meanwhile trying to figure out how to write this sort of trash that seems to sell in HollowWoods and makes megabuck$
                    Oh yeah ... MM, seems a plausible but I'd lean towards a one in five ratio on "out of service" versus "in use" so would consider a fleet of about thirty vessels a more workable fleet.

                    Normally this topic would get a quick review and pass on my part ...
                    Last edited by G David Bock; 03 Dec 15, 00:14.
                    TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
                    “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz
                    Present Current Events are the Future's History

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by G David Bock View Post
                      So where is "[FONT=Lucida Sans Unicode]Unobtainium" on the Periodic Table of Elements? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periodic_table
                      You were using the wrong table. It's right there between OM from Star Trek and Ha from a novel...

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by G David Bock View Post
                        Like most of what is called "science fiction" out of HollowWood the past few decades, Camaron's pile is high on the fiction, negative on the science and a pile of crap!
                        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unobtainium

                        Since the late 1950s,[a][1] aerospace engineers have used the term "unobtainium" when referring to unusual or costly materials, or when theoretically considering a material perfect for their needs in all respects, except that it does not exist. By the 1990s, the term was in wide use, even in formal engineering papers such as "Towards unobtainium [new composite materials for space applications]."[2][3] The word unobtainium may well have been coined in the aerospace industry to refer to materials capable of withstanding the extreme temperatures expected in re-entry.[1] Aerospace engineers are frequently tempted to design aircraft which require parts with strength or resilience beyond that of currently available materials.
                        By now I would think that you'd not post drunk.
                        Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
                        Hyperwar, Whats New
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                        The best place in the world to "work".

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
                          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unobtainium



                          By now I would think that you'd not post drunk.
                          IIRC, the implication in the movie was that this was a natural resource/substance, not an artificial construct fabricated by technology, which your links point out.

                          From your wiki link;
                          "More recently, the term was used in James Cameron's 2009 movie Avatar, as a substance that was named (in the film's dialog) unobtanium (note the slightly different spelling). In the film, it was mined on the fictional moon Pandora, and was described as key to human space exploration and survival.[7][13]"

                          Sounds like this movie is a fav of yours.
                          TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
                          “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz
                          Present Current Events are the Future's History

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            You can tell that from a Wiki quote?
                            Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
                            Hyperwar, Whats New
                            World War II Resources
                            The best place in the world to "work".

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
                              You can tell that from a Wiki quote?
                              No, from your ad homineum;

                              "By now I would think that you'd not post drunk."

                              TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
                              “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz
                              Present Current Events are the Future's History

                              Comment

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