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  • Originally posted by Pirate-Drakk View Post
    Models (even climate models) are useful tools. They can help find interrelationships between diverse factors. You change one thing or more things, and stuff happens. HOWEVER, a model always has some number of assumptions built in, which have varying degrees of accuracy. There are limitations of input data and noise in that data. The results should be used as a "guide to understanding", not taken literally.

    I have worked with many complex experimental physics machines and in no case could we precisely model ANY of these integrated systems! If a "not so simple" human built machine can't be precisely modeled, doing it with the Earth's climate is seriously impossible. There are too many unknowns and the complexity is beyond what any model can be made.

    To even think science has discovered, and accurately measured, all the factors effecting the Earth's climate is laughable. And you can't model what you don't know.

    Given our limited knowledge of outer space, I highly suspect there are interstellar, and even galactic effects on the Earth/Solar weather. Stars interact over very long time periods. It could take centuries for us to get the technology to discover and measure these effects, which are external to our Solar system.
    Speaking of "models" and science ...
    Scientists predict 'mini ice age' could hit UK by 2030

    A model of the Sun's magnetic activity suggests the River Thames may freeze over within two decades, experts say.
    ...
    A mathematical model of the Sun's magnetic activity suggests temperatures could start dropping here from 2021, with the potential for winter skating on the River Thames by 2030.

    A team led by maths professor Valentina Zharkova at Northumbria University built on work from Moscow to predict the movements of two magnetic waves produced by the Sun.

    It predicts rapidly decreasing magnetic waves for three solar cycles beginning in 2021 and lasting 33 years.

    Very low magnetic activity on the Sun correspond with historically documented cold periods on Earth.

    Professor Zharkova claims 97% accuracy for the model which dovetails with previous mini ice ages, including the Maunder Minimum period from 1645 to 1715 when frost fairs were held on the frozen Thames.
    ...
    https://news.sky.com/story/scientist...-2030-11186098
    TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
    “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz
    Present Current Events are the Future's History

    Comment


    • Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
      Good fracking grief...
      High-altitude clouds like cirrus warm the planet by trapping heat. Contrail “cirrus” does the same thing, but the question is: how much? We know that contrails trap some extra energy in the atmosphere; their radiative forcing trapped 10 milliwatts per square metre (mW/m2) in 2005, according to an estimate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That compares with 28 mW/m2 trapped by all of the CO2 released by aircraft engines since the start of aviation.
      https://www.newscientist.com/article...ion-emissions/

      Thin, high clouds trap more heat than they reflect sunlight. Low, thick clouds block more sunlight than they trap heat... Meteorology 101.
      FFS. There is so much wrong with the pretend science above, its made my day .

      Contrails are not like clouds. Contrails are extremely short lived events, and if aircraft flights were fewer in number, these vapours would have next to no impact on the climate. Contrails do not exist long enough to trap heat, they simply create a short lived 'mirror' that reflects sunlight. With the 'mirrors' removed, this is why temperatures rose after 911, ie civilian aircraft stopped flying.

      Meteorology 101. Try it .
      How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
      Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
        FFS. There is so much wrong with the pretend science above, its made my day .

        Contrails are not like clouds. Contrails are extremely short lived events, and if aircraft flights were fewer in number, these vapours would have next to no impact on the climate. Contrails do not exist long enough to trap heat, they simply create a short lived 'mirror' that reflects sunlight. With the 'mirrors' removed, this is why temperatures rose after 911, ie civilian aircraft stopped flying.

        Meteorology 101. Try it .

        I got an A in it.

        Contrails form anthropogenic cirrus clouds. That's a simple fact.
        A homogenitus, anthropogenic or artificial cloud, is a cloud induced by human activity.

        [...]

        by far the greatest number of anthropogenic clouds are airplane contrails (condensation trails) and rocket trails.[3][4]

        [...]

        Despite the fact that the three genera of high clouds, Cirrus, Cirrocumulus and Cirrostratus, form at the top of the troposphere, far from the earth surface, they may have an anthropogenic origin. In this case, the process that causes their formation is almost always the same: commercial and military aircraft flight. Exhaust products from the combustion of the kerosene expelled by engines provide water vapor to this region of the troposphere.

        In addition, the strong contrast between the cold air of the high troposphere layers and the warm and moist air ejected by aircraft engines causes rapid sublimation of water vapor forming small ice crystals.

        [...]
        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropogenic_cloud
        Cirrus clouds: These clouds are wispy and feathery, and positioned up to 20 kilometers above the Earth's surface. Cirrus clouds let much sunlight pass through them and may also trap the Earth's heat, just as greenhouse gases do. Therefore, they have a net warming effect that helps magnify warming.
        https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_rep...s/question.jsp

        Contrails are induced cirrus clouds. Anthropogenic cirrus clouds could account for all of the warming from 1975-1994...
        NASA scientists have found that cirrus clouds, formed by contrails from aircraft engine exhaust, are capable of increasing average surface temperatures enough to account for a warming trend in the United States that occurred between 1975 and 1994.

        "This result shows the increased cirrus coverage, attributable to air traffic, could account for nearly all of the warming observed over the United States for nearly 20 years starting in 1975, but it is important to acknowledge contrails would add to and not replace any greenhouse gas effect," said Patrick Minnis, senior research scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Va. The study was published April 15 in the Journal of Climate. "During the same period, warming occurred in many other areas where cirrus coverage decreased or remained steady," he added.
        https://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/200...s_climate.html
        Besides natural cirrus clouds, contrails resulting from jet aircraft exhausts have become of considerable interest with respect to the question whether and in which way aviation emissions could modify upper-tropospheric ice cloud microphysics on regional and global scales (e.g., Friedl 1997; Brasseur et al. 1998). Aircraft exhaust may trigger cloud formation in two ways, either directly or indirectly. In the direct case, a contrail forms immediately behind the aircraft. This requires a special thermodynamic state of the atmosphere, especially low (<230 K) temperatures at typical flight altitudes (∼250 hPa) (e.g., Schumann 1996). After a short (about 1 s) initial growth stage (Kärcher et al. 1996), the contrail will evaporate within tens of seconds if the air is dry. In contrast, contrail growth will continue in background air that is supersaturated with respect to ice. Eventually, the line-shaped contrail may transform into a cirrus cloud, as demonstrated by satellite observations (Schumann and Wendling 1990...
        http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0469%282000%29057<0464%3AOTTOCI>2.0.CO%3B2
        Last edited by The Doctor; 28 Dec 17, 16:45.
        Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

        Comment


        • At least the UK isn't going to boil according to the latest weather predictions

          https://news.sky.com/story/scientist...-2030-11186098

          Paul
          ‘Tis said his form is tiny, yet
          All human ills he can subdue,
          Or with a bauble or medal
          Can win mans heart for you;
          And many a blessing know to stew
          To make a megloamaniac bright;
          Give honour to the dainty Corse,
          The Pixie is a little shite.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Dibble201Bty View Post
            At least the UK isn't going to boil according to the latest weather predictions

            https://news.sky.com/story/scientist...-2030-11186098

            Paul
            Also shown in post #1006 above ....

            Key take-away here is that we are far from understanding* the energy and cycles of the Sun as well as we like, and that it remains the key driver of Climate here on Earth. Whether UK (and rest of planet) "boils" or "freezes" in next 2-3 decades will depend largely upon energy output of the Sun.

            * Over the past five decades our instruments and satellites have improved in what they can measure and the precision of such regarding Solar energy output, but the record remains too short to make comprehensive and long term cycles and effects known with any exactness for the sort for climate models and predictions advanced by the ACC/AGW advocates. Variations and ranges of actual energy output in the eleven year sunspot cycle have barely begun to get a reliable energy output range~gauge for the past half century, let alone for the flux range over centuries of time-span.
            TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
            “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz
            Present Current Events are the Future's History

            Comment


            • Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
              I got an A in it.

              Contrails form anthropogenic cirrus clouds. That's a simple fact.
              A homogenitus, anthropogenic or artificial cloud, is a cloud induced by human activity.

              [...]

              by far the greatest number of anthropogenic clouds are airplane contrails (condensation trails) and rocket trails.[3][4]

              [...]

              Despite the fact that the three genera of high clouds, Cirrus, Cirrocumulus and Cirrostratus, form at the top of the troposphere, far from the earth surface, they may have an anthropogenic origin. In this case, the process that causes their formation is almost always the same: commercial and military aircraft flight. Exhaust products from the combustion of the kerosene expelled by engines provide water vapor to this region of the troposphere.

              In addition, the strong contrast between the cold air of the high troposphere layers and the warm and moist air ejected by aircraft engines causes rapid sublimation of water vapor forming small ice crystals.

              [...]
              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropogenic_cloud
              Cirrus clouds: These clouds are wispy and feathery, and positioned up to 20 kilometers above the Earth's surface. Cirrus clouds let much sunlight pass through them and may also trap the Earth's heat, just as greenhouse gases do. Therefore, they have a net warming effect that helps magnify warming.
              https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_rep...s/question.jsp

              Contrails are induced cirrus clouds. Anthropogenic cirrus clouds could account for all of the warming from 1975-1994...
              NASA scientists have found that cirrus clouds, formed by contrails from aircraft engine exhaust, are capable of increasing average surface temperatures enough to account for a warming trend in the United States that occurred between 1975 and 1994.

              "This result shows the increased cirrus coverage, attributable to air traffic, could account for nearly all of the warming observed over the United States for nearly 20 years starting in 1975, but it is important to acknowledge contrails would add to and not replace any greenhouse gas effect," said Patrick Minnis, senior research scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Va. The study was published April 15 in the Journal of Climate. "During the same period, warming occurred in many other areas where cirrus coverage decreased or remained steady," he added.
              https://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/200...s_climate.html
              Besides natural cirrus clouds, contrails resulting from jet aircraft exhausts have become of considerable interest with respect to the question whether and in which way aviation emissions could modify upper-tropospheric ice cloud microphysics on regional and global scales (e.g., Friedl 1997; Brasseur et al. 1998). Aircraft exhaust may trigger cloud formation in two ways, either directly or indirectly. In the direct case, a contrail forms immediately behind the aircraft. This requires a special thermodynamic state of the atmosphere, especially low (<230 K) temperatures at typical flight altitudes (∼250 hPa) (e.g., Schumann 1996). After a short (about 1 s) initial growth stage (Kärcher et al. 1996), the contrail will evaporate within tens of seconds if the air is dry. In contrast, contrail growth will continue in background air that is supersaturated with respect to ice. Eventually, the line-shaped contrail may transform into a cirrus cloud, as demonstrated by satellite observations (Schumann and Wendling 1990...
              http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0469%282000%29057<0464%3AOTTOCI>2.0.CO%3B2
              The actual evidence is that when flights were stopped over the USA, in the wake of 911, temperatures rose, and substantially.

              The IPCC and NASA have yet to get their models completely right.
              How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
              Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Dibble201Bty View Post
                At least the UK isn't going to boil according to the latest weather predictions

                https://news.sky.com/story/scientist...-2030-11186098

                Paul
                Oddly enough, global warming will make Britain cooler in the short term. The diversion of the Gulf Stream will be very noticeable.
                How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
                Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
                  Oddly enough, global warming will make Britain cooler in the short term. The diversion of the Gulf Stream will be very noticeable.
                  How does that diverted Gulf Stream affect the frigid weather currently affecting most of the USA?

                  Record Breaking Winter Cold? Don’t Worry, the Climate Explainers Have it Covered

                  EXCERPT:
                  ...
                  Global warming is an infinitely flexible, unscientific, unfalsifiable theory which can be stretched to accommodate any observation. Some Climate Scientists even shamelessly reject the very concept of scientific falsification with regard to the conduct of climate science.
                  ...
                  https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/...ve-it-covered/
                  TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
                  “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” - von Clausewitz
                  Present Current Events are the Future's History

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
                    The actual evidence is that when flights were stopped over the USA, in the wake of 911, temperatures rose, and substantially.

                    The IPCC and NASA have yet to get their models completely right.
                    Abject nonsense. US temperatures steadily fell from 1999-2006...



                    Average US temperatures in 2001, 2002 and 2003 were almost identical...



                    The net effect of contrails on the climate is slight warming, because contrails form cirrus clouds. The flight ban's theoretical effect would have been cooling. However, there is no evidence that the brief flight ban had any effect on US temperatures.

                    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/space/contrail-effect.html
                    Last edited by The Doctor; 29 Dec 17, 20:07.
                    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by G David Bock View Post
                      Also shown in post #1006 above ....
                      Oh yes! I am sorry I must have ignored your rantings due to tin-foil, UFO's, tic-tacs, squished blow flies and funny flowers....

                      Paul
                      Last edited by Dibble201Bty; 30 Dec 17, 02:10.
                      ‘Tis said his form is tiny, yet
                      All human ills he can subdue,
                      Or with a bauble or medal
                      Can win mans heart for you;
                      And many a blessing know to stew
                      To make a megloamaniac bright;
                      Give honour to the dainty Corse,
                      The Pixie is a little shite.

                      Comment


                      • Oddly enough, global warming will make Britain cooler in the short term. The diversion of the Gulf Stream will be very noticeable.
                        Originally posted by G David Bock View Post
                        How does that diverted Gulf Stream affect the frigid weather currently affecting most of the USA?
                        Er.. read my post? I was talking about a shift in the Gulf Stream. A hotter planet will shift the Gulf Stream further north, thus making Britain colder. It is a relatively local effect, that proves that Global warming can make some locations colder.
                        How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
                        Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                          Abject nonsense.
                          .
                          .
                          <snip>
                          .
                          .
                          Absolutely Total Claptrap.

                          We are talking about the few weeks after 911, not an extended period when aircraft were flying over years. Temperatures rose due to a lack of flights over the USA, and up to 1 degree C. That might not sound like much, but in meteorological terms, a sudden shift of that magnitude is a big deal.
                          How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
                          Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
                            Absolutely Total Claptrap.

                            We are talking about the few weeks after 911, not an extended period when aircraft were flying over years. Temperatures rose due to a lack of flights over the USA, and up to 1 degree C. That might not sound like much, but in meteorological terms, a sudden shift of that magnitude is a big deal.
                            You're talking about three days and there was no evidence of warming or cooling.

                            One paper suggested that there was an increase in the differential between daily highs and lows. However, all subsequent studies refuted this.



                            The above graph is the differential between daily high and low temperatures, not an increase in temperature. The highs were higher, the lows were lower, the average didn't rise or fall.

                            http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedb...st_1.html#more

                            September 2001 was cooler than the 1998-2007 September average.



                            "A sudden shift of that magnitude" for 10% of the month would have left a mark.

                            Please carry on with your total ignorance of the subject matter.
                            Last edited by The Doctor; 31 Dec 17, 06:38.
                            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                            Comment


                            • Edited post.

                              Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                              You're talking about three days and there was no evidence of warming or cooling.
                              Wrong. Lack of flights, ie contrails, led to massive warming over the USA. If you had real evidence you would have posted it already.

                              Contrails are not cirrus cloud.

                              Fuerther, using your example, when contrails are compared to Cirrus clouds, it is like comparing Silicon to Carbon. Or perhaps Carbon to Silicon.
                              How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
                              Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
                                Edited post.



                                Wrong. Lack of flights, ie contrails, led to massive warming over the USA. If you had real evidence you would have posted it already.

                                Contrails are not cirrus cloud.

                                Fuerther, using your example, when contrails are compared to Cirrus clouds, it is like comparing Silicon to Carbon. Or perhaps Carbon to Silicon.
                                I've provided references from NASA, NSF, BAMS and Nature... You've provided nothing but abject ignorance and your own delusions.

                                No one measured any warming during the 3-day air travel shut down. No one expected to measure any warming.

                                Travis et al., postulated that the daily temperature range (DTR) broadened from 9/11-14 relative to the 3 days before and after, and this was related to the lack of contrails (anthropogenic cirrus clouds).
                                Air-traffic moratorium opened window on contrails and climate
                                Clouds formed by the water vapour in the exhaust from jet planes have a small but significant effect on daily temperatures, a new study confirms.


                                The grounding of commercial flights for three days after last September's terrorist attacks in the United States gave David Travis at the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater and colleagues a chance they never thought they'd have: to study the true impact that contrails from jet engines have on our climate1.

                                "It was a tarnished golden opportunity," recalls Patrick Minnis, an atmospheric scientist at NASA'a Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. Despite a wealth of experiments, it had been virtually impossible to gauge the effect of contrails because air traffic, particularly over regions such as Europe and North America, never stopped. Until 11 September 2001, that is.

                                Contrails left high in the atmosphere spread out into cirrus-like clouds under the right atmospheric conditions. Natural cirrus clouds - thin layers of wispy water vapour that often resemble fish scales - trap heat being reflected from the ground and, to a lesser extent, reflect some of the Sun's rays.

                                Travis's team compared the average daily high and low temperatures over North America from 11 to 14 September 2001, with climatic records from 1977 to 2000, matching the weather over those three days with similar weather in September from historical records.

                                They found that the difference between daily high and nightly low temperatures in the absence of contrails was more than 1 °C greater than in the presence of contrails. Comparing the three-day grounding period with the three days immediately before and after, the impact was even larger - about 1.8 °C.

                                [...]
                                http://www.nature.com/news/2002/0208...s020805-7.html

                                Subsequent papers shot this down by demonstrating that the broadening of the DTR was not unusual and more likely due to changes in low cloud cover.
                                Two studies1,2 noted that when planes stopped flying on 11–14 September 2001, the average daily temperature range in the United States rose markedly, exceeding the three-day periods before and after by an average of 1.8 °C. The unusual size of the shift, says David Travis of the University of Wisconsin–Whitewater, who led both of the earlier studies, implied that an absence of contrails gave the temperature range a significant boost. But that idea, he says, was "more like a hypothesis" than a firm conclusion.

                                Research led by Gang Hong, an atmospheric scientist at Texas A&M University in College Station, now suggests that this hypothesis is wrong3. Examining patterns of cloud cover and temperature in early September at US weather stations from 1971 to 2001, Hong and his colleagues found that thicker, low clouds are the dominant influence on temperature extremes, whereas high clouds such as contrails have a minor effect at most. They add that the 2001 temperature swings seem to be within the range of natural variability over those decades.

                                Hong's work doesn't prove that the contrails have no effect on temperature, just that they are unlikely to have a major role, says Ulrich Schumann, director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the German Aerospace Center in Oberpfaffenhofen, near Munich.

                                But that contrail effect, Schumann cautions, has been exaggerated in public discussions because the events of 2001 were so shocking. "Some not very good scientific arguments were misused," he says.

                                Up in the air

                                The research by Hong and his colleagues, published in Geophysical Research Letters, follows other studies arguing that the September 2001 temperature variations can be explained by the clear, dry weather on the crucial days4, and that climate-modelling results do not support the contrail effects claimed by Travis's group5.
                                http://www.nature.com/news/2008/0812...2008.1335.html

                                Please carry on with your total ignorance of the subject matter.
                                Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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