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  • Wheat: The Goldilocks Crop and the Impending Extinction of Pasta



    Here's the [email protected]*%ed Enviromarxist non sequitor of the day...
    Bakken Oil Boom and Climate Change Threaten the Future of Pasta

    Dec 10, 2012 12:00 AM EST

    Temperatures are rising. Rainfalls are shifting. Droughts are intensifying. What will we eat when wheat won’t grow.

    A world without pasta seems inconceivable. Mac-and-cheese-loving children across the United States would howl in protest. Italy might suffer a cultural heart attack. Social unrest could explode in northern China, where noodles are the main staple.

    But if humans want to keep eating pasta, we will have to take much more aggressive action against global warming. Pasta is made from wheat, and a large, growing body of scientific studies and real-world observations suggest that wheat will be hit especially hard as temperatures rise and storms and drought intensify in the years ahead.

    [...]

    Three grains—wheat, corn, and rice—account for most of the food humans consume. All three are already suffering from climate change, but wheat stands to fare the worst in the years ahead, for it is the grain most vulnerable to high temperatures. That spells trouble not only for pasta but also for bread, the most basic food of all. (Pasta is made from the durum variety of wheat, while bread is generally made from more common varieties, such as red spring.)

    “Wheat is a cool-season crop. High temperatures are negative for its growth and quality, no doubt about it,” says Frank Manthey, a professor at North Dakota State University who advises the North Dakota Wheat Commission. Already, a mere 1 degree Fahrenheit of global temperature rise over the past 50 years has caused a 5.5 percent decline in wheat production, according to David Lobell, a professor at Stanford University’s Center on Food Security and the Environment.

    [...]

    Newsweek
    "[A] mere 1 degree Fahrenheit of global temperature rise over the past 50 years has caused a 5.5 percent decline in wheat production."


    Yet wheat and cereal production flourished during the Medieval Warm Period, when "temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than they are today"...
    Little Ice Age

    by Edna Sun

    February 15 , 2005 — It was only a few hundred years ago that the earth experienced its last ice age. Global temperatures started falling during the 1300s and hit their lowest points in the late 1700s and early 1800s. New Yorkers could walk from Manhattan to Staten Island across a frozen harbor, while Londoners held "Frost Fairs" on a solid Thames River. Glaciers advanced in China, New Zealand, and Peru, and snow covered Ethiopian peaks. Diseases, aided by the change in climate, spread quickly throughout Europe and Asia. Iced waters delayed shipping from ports, growing glaciers engulfed farms and villages, tree lines receded, and agriculture deteriorated, leading to centuries of poor harvests, famine, and social unrest. Though the average global temperature dropped only one to two degrees Celsius below what they are today, the cold spell nevertheless drastically affected life at this time.

    - - - - - - - - - - - -

    Global temperatures naturally fluctuate slightly from year to year. However, in the past 10,000 years, there have been three relatively long global cold spells. The Little Ice Age (LIA) is the most recent and best documented, especially in Europe

    It may have had a greater effect on history than its predecessors because it immediately followed several centuries of unusually warm temperatures. Between 800 and 1200, Europe basked in a warm spell known as the "Medieval Warm Period" (MWP); temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than they are today.

    [...]


    Fatal Harvest

    During the LIA, summers were wet and unusually cold and the growing season was shortened. Widespread crop failure resulted in famine that killed millions of people. To avoid starvation, people would eat the planting seed for next season, which created more of a shortage the following year.

    During the MWP European farmers primarily grew cereal grains such as wheat, barley, and rye, which flourished. But the long thin stalks of these crops made them vulnerable to the strong winds and heavy rainfall that came during the LIA. The temperature drop in northern Europe made it difficult to raise these grains and many farmers gave up trying. Less grain was produced, creating a severe shortage and raising prices.

    [...]

    PBS
    Obviously wheat can't handle any temperature. The LIA was too cold. Today it's too warm for wheat, even though the wheat flourished during the warmer MWP.

    Whenever I run into a [email protected]*%ed Enviromarxist non sequitor, I always check the math.

    Wheat production data for the period 1961-2010 are available from FAOSTAT and temperature data can be easily downloaded from Wood For Trees.



    This explains why wheat liked the Medieval Warm Period and disliked the Little Ice Age. The only explanation for this sort of nonsense, is mental [email protected]*%ation...
    “Wheat is a cool-season crop. High temperatures are negative for its growth and quality, no doubt about it,” says Frank Manthey, a professor at North Dakota State University who advises the North Dakota Wheat Commission. Already, a mere 1 degree Fahrenheit of global temperature rise over the past 50 years has caused a 5.5 percent decline in wheat production, according to David Lobell, a professor at Stanford University’s Center on Food Security and the Environment.
    Wheat yield and production have more than doubled over the past 50 years.
    Last edited by The Doctor; 10 Dec 12, 15:57.
    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

  • #2

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    • #3
      Evolution. Rice noodle vs wheat noodle.
      Flag: USA / Location: West Coast

      Prayers.

      BoRG

      http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/8757/snap1ws8.jpg

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PtsX_Z3CMU

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Salinator View Post
        Evolution. Rice noodle vs wheat noodle.
        That's right. Everything that can be made from wheat can be made from the other two staple grain crops: rice and maize.

        As well as noodles, here in Laos, our bread is made from rice. It's OK. Major alcoholic beverages such as Lao whisky and Japanese sake are also made from rice.

        Those are OK, too.


        Philip
        "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."— Bertrand Russell

        Comment


        • #5
          In the US there are three classifications of types of wheat. Spring, Winter and Durum Wheat. Triticum durum is the variety of wheat the article is concerned with most, which is a tetraploid species. Common wheat or bread wheat is the variety where Spring and Winter wheat comes from which is Triticum aestivum, a hexaploid species.

          Durum and Spring wheat are planted in April May and harvested August September. Winter wheat is planted from September through early November and harvested in June/July. There are soft and hard wheat varieties of both winter and spring wheat, which basically means how much protein content that wheat has and what it's suited for. Soft wheat is better for pastries and hard wheat is better for bread.

          http://www.thefreshloaf.com/node/463...reference-maps

          Durum wheat is grown in two primary areas: North Dakota/Eastern Montana and some down in southern California/Arizona


          Spring wheat is grown in a similar region with Durum; Montana, eastern Washington, Idaho, South Dakota, and western Minnestoa. It is not grown in California.


          Winter wheat is grown mainly in the Midwest, although some is grown in eastern Washington.


          So why did I post this? Well take a look at the regions. Winter wheat is planted in the areas that usually have hotter summers. They also have longer growing seasons allowing for better fall growth before winter, as well as a earlier last frost date. Spring and Durum wheat are planted in coolers areas where this type of wheat actually likes cool weather for growth but warmer and drier weather for seed production.

          What does a warmer climate have to do with this? Well it would be good for winter wheat but it could affect Spring and Durum wheat which the article claims where it is grown currently. Why? Well because the summers may get too hot, which is bad for a plant that evolved in cooler parts of the world. But what warming does is open up the norther areas of Canada up for more Spring and Durum wheat growing. I think wheat will only grow up to the 60th parallel north or south, however growing up to that latitude is not easy as the growing seasons are very short and the nights really cold. This may be why the Vikings were able to grow and explore so much in the medieval warming period. Once they had the surpluses of wheat thanks to warming and grew in population, they needed room to expand and had the money to build ships, train men, and fund expeditions to far off places.

          Warm weather will also affect the areas where other temperate growing grains grow, like Oats, Rye and Barley, but like wheat, warming will open it up to new cultivation areas. Of course there are other grains that can tolerate warm places. Take a look at African grains, Sorghum, Millet, Teff, and the South American grain Amaranth.
          The Europa Barbarorum II team [M2TW] needs YOUR HELP NOW HERE!

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Frtigern View Post
            [...]

            So why did I post this? Well take a look at the regions. Winter wheat is planted in the areas that usually have hotter summers. They also have longer growing seasons allowing for better fall growth before winter, as well as a earlier last frost date. Spring and Durum wheat are planted in coolers areas where this type of wheat actually likes cool weather for growth but warmer and drier weather for seed production.

            What does a warmer climate have to do with this? Well it would be good for winter wheat but it could affect Spring and Durum wheat which the article claims where it is grown currently. Why? Well because the summers may get too hot, which is bad for a plant that evolved in cooler parts of the world. But what warming does is open up the norther areas of Canada up for more Spring and Durum wheat growing. I think wheat will only grow up to the 60th parallel north or south, however growing up to that latitude is not easy as the growing seasons are very short and the nights really cold. This may be why the Vikings were able to grow and explore so much in the medieval warming period. Once they had the surpluses of wheat thanks to warming and grew in population, they needed room to expand and had the money to build ships, train men, and fund expeditions to far off places.

            Warm weather will also affect the areas where other temperate growing grains grow, like Oats, Rye and Barley, but like wheat, warming will open it up to new cultivation areas. Of course there are other grains that can tolerate warm places. Take a look at African grains, Sorghum, Millet, Teff, and the South American grain Amaranth.
            The article said,
            “Wheat is a cool-season crop. High temperatures are negative for its growth and quality, no doubt about it,” says Frank Manthey, a professor at North Dakota State University who advises the North Dakota Wheat Commission. Already, a mere 1 degree Fahrenheit of global temperature rise over the past 50 years has caused a 5.5 percent decline in wheat production, according to David Lobell, a professor at Stanford University’s Center on Food Security and the Environment.


            Wheat yield and production have more than doubled over the past 50 years.

            However, if we want to limit it to North Dakota durum production, we have a slight problem. North Dakota summers have not gotten warmer over the last 50 years.



            North Dakota durum production did increase from 1961-1981 and it has declined back to about where it was in 1961. However, this has nothing do do with warming summers in North Dakota. It has to do with acreage planted. The yield has increased from 26.6 bushels per acre (1961-70) to 30.5 bushels per acre (2001-10).
            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

            Comment


            • #7
              Although the message of the article is very pro-global warming, anti-fossil fuels, pro-sustainable agriculture. The tone of it is very arrogant. When they ask the farmers if they think it's global warming they won't say yes or no right away. Farmers are usually quite conservative but they know weather and follow it closely over the course of their lifetime. If there is anyone we should trust as to whether the weather the changing, a farmer would be the one. I always hear, "This is unusual this time of year." or "Last year we had this weather at this time." Comparing past weather with current weather is their occupation. One farmer was aware that those who say global warming is real and that we have to do something believes that will mean more government regulation, and he's spot on with that. But the article also mentions some other important agricultural things.

              http://www.thedailybeast.com/newswee...-of-pasta.html

              ...
              Durum used to be grown throughout North Dakota, but over the past 30 to 40 years, the growing zone has shifted farther west as weather conditions have changed. “Rainfall patterns have shifted,” explains Professor Manthey. “It’s become too wet in eastern North Dakota for durum.”
              ...
              Extreme and volatile weather patterns are especially threatening to durum, which is more finicky than conventional wheat varieties. If too much rain falls at the wrong time, durum’s quality can be ruined. Too little rain isn’t good either. Because durum is trickier to grow, farmers require a price premium over what conventional wheat earns. Already, Opland and other farmers complain, grain companies have been shrinking these premiums to boost their own profit margins.
              This is one of the main reason why there has been a decline in durum production. Not climate change. If a farmer is going to get little return for a hard to grow crop, he ain't going to grow it.

              ...
              Informed that scientists at both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency linked the record heat and drought of summer of 2012 with man-made climate change, Schulz says this is news to him. Nevertheless, he holds firm to his conviction that climate change is a ruse to justify greater government regulation: “I just don’t think we’ve got enough data to say climate change is real.”
              This is still my belief about the topic.

              ...
              spokesperson Marina Morsellino, Barilla is globally diversifying its supply chain so that bad weather in one region does not leave the company without adequate supplies of durum. It is also “developing new varieties more resistant to ... extremely dry or wet conditions,” she adds, while encouraging farmers to employ such traditional practices as rotating durum with numerous other crop.
              This just makes good economic sense for any business to diversify its sources. It also makes good sense for farmers to develop seed that is adapted to their land. I don't believe we should only give the responsibility of breeding or engineering seed to agribusinesses that have an agenda to sell chemicals, and prohibit any independent breeding with their seeds. Farmers need to relearn how to breed their own seed and replant it.

              ...
              “When we get hotter, drier weather, no till makes a big difference,” Bauer says, his thick-fingered hand reaching down to scrape snow from a field of durum harvested in August. “This cover crop is keeping moisture in the soil for next year.” Pointing across the field through swirling snow, he adds, “If you went to my neighbor’s field, where he tills the conventional way, the soil would be bare. When temperatures warm up in the spring, his soil will dry up real quick, which can become a problem in July.” By improving the soil’s drainage, the use of no till and multiple-crop rotation also provides resilience to the very wet weather that punished North Dakota durum growers in 2011.
              The fall of past civilizations has been attributed to the loss of it's topsoil. Rome for instance pushed the plow onto every farmable region within its borders after it had exhausted all of its domestic soil resources. We need to see soil as a non-renewable resource and treat it's loss as a something we'll never get back. Humus rich topsoil takes centuries to form. It's what makes crops more resilient to climate, weather and disease, as well as needing less water. Development should take into account the quality of soil and whether that land is suited for farming. A mixed use rural/suburban zoning that combines the best of both could be adopted.
              The Europa Barbarorum II team [M2TW] needs YOUR HELP NOW HERE!

              Comment


              • #8
                It's nothing to do with climate. Doc just likes to manufacture crises where none really exist.

                Gee...I think that's what's called a "strawman", which is what Doc accuses everyone else of doing.

                Comment


                • #9
                  North Dakota production and yield data are available from the North Dakota Wheat Commission.

                  A cross-plot of North Dakota durum yield vs. seasonal temperatures does support the claim that warmer summers could cause a drop in durum yield...



                  A 1 °F rise in average summer temperature could reduce durum yield by 1.6 bushels per acre. That's in the neighborhood of a 5.5% decline.

                  However, all of the global warming in North Dakota over the past 50 years has occurred in winter...



                  Winter warming has no correlation to durum yield (R² = 0.0194).

                  Durum production and acreage planted increased from 1961-1981 and then have decreased since 1981, while yield has steadily increased.

                  Total North Dakota wheat production has increased over the last 50 years.

                  Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I remember back in the 80's. I read an article in a magazine (Newsweek?) about non-traditional areas going to wheat. I was talking to a friend at the ballpark and he was talking about farming soybeans. I told him that it could be that optimal growing conditions for soybeans may be past in SW Louisiana. I told him he should look at other crops like Wheat! I saw him again the next Summer at the ballpark and he walked up and thanked me! He said he had planted wheat and done very well!

                    Southwest Louisiana is not the the furtherest South you can plant wheat, but using Winter Wheat avoids the hot Summer temps. Soybeans farming has spread greatly in the US since introduced. For a number of years Louisiana did quite well growing them. The 80's saw a decline in soybean sales in Louisiana.

                    Interestingly, Kirby-Smith tasked Farmers in North Texas during the Civil War to supply a certain amount of potatoes and wheat to feed his command! Since much of North Texas was deserted at this time due to Comanches and such, I was amazed there was that much produce being grown! Arkansas, Oklahoma and Louisiana were disrupted quite badly and hardly producing any crops for Kirby-Smith.

                    Pruitt
                    Pruitt, you are truly an expert! Kelt06

                    Have you been struck by the jawbone of an ASS lately?

                    by Khepesh "This is the logic of Pruitt"

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      commendable,Mr Frtigen!

                      Originally posted by Frtigern View Post
                      Although the message of the article is very pro-global warming, anti-fossil fuels, pro-sustainable agriculture. The tone of it is very arrogant. When they ask the farmers if they think it's global warming they won't say yes or no right away. Farmers are usually quite conservative but they know weather and follow it closely over the course of their lifetime. If there is anyone we should trust as to whether the weather the changing, a farmer would be the one. I always hear, "This is unusual this time of year." or "Last year we had this weather at this time." Comparing past weather with current weather is their occupation. One farmer was aware that those who say global warming is real and that we have to do something believes that will mean more government regulation, and he's spot on with that. But the article also mentions some other important agricultural things.

                      http://www.thedailybeast.com/newswee...-of-pasta.html





                      This is one of the main reason why there has been a decline in durum production. Not climate change. If a farmer is going to get little return for a hard to grow crop, he ain't going to grow it.



                      This is still my belief about the topic.



                      This just makes good economic sense for any business to diversify its sources. It also makes good sense for farmers to develop seed that is adapted to their land. I don't believe we should only give the responsibility of breeding or engineering seed to agribusinesses that have an agenda to sell chemicals, and prohibit any independent breeding with their seeds. Farmers need to relearn how to breed their own seed and replant it.



                      The fall of past civilizations has been attributed to the loss of it's topsoil. Rome for instance pushed the plow onto every farmable region within its borders after it had exhausted all of its domestic soil resources. We need to see soil as a non-renewable resource and treat it's loss as a something we'll never get back. Humus rich topsoil takes centuries to form. It's what makes crops more resilient to climate, weather and disease, as well as needing less water. Development should take into account the quality of soil and whether that land is suited for farming. A mixed use rural/suburban zoning that combines the best of both could be adopted.
                      the economics of oil seed crops have overtaken Wheat in North Dakota- and new varieties of Canola can be grown in Hotter summer areas.

                      Durum Wheat is now used as the 'fallow crop', as it allows for the use of broadleaf herbicides to clean up fields.

                      Wheat is susceptible to grade loss due to early frosts, making it riskier than oilseeds.
                      Garnet style wheat can be grown further north, as it matures in ninety or less days. It requires special milling steps. Garnet created a lot of controversy in the 1930's , as it could be mixed in with bread wheat and was not , at the time, detectable in samples..

                      http://www.mhs.mb.ca/docs/mb_history...netwheat.shtml

                      In the late 1930's a lot of the 'reserve garnet' ended up - in Siberia
                      http://www.mhs.mb.ca/docs/mb_history...netwheat.shtml

                      Traded for minerals...
                      Last edited by marktwain; 28 Jun 14, 23:02.
                      The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I remember talking to a guy at the ball fields in Sulphur in the mid 80's. He was a farmer and the subject came up of how Soybeans were getting harder to grow and get a good price on. I told him how the climate had been changing over the years and where Southwest Louisiana might have had good growing seasons in the past for soybeans, the time may be right to make a change. I told him I had read about how Louisiana farmers were now growing Wheat and other crops. I then went about my business but I ran into the same guy the next summer and he told me he wanted to thank me. This puzzled me and I asked why? He said he had planted Wheat instead of Soybeans that year and he had made more money! I hope he continued to do well.

                        Pruitt
                        Pruitt, you are truly an expert! Kelt06

                        Have you been struck by the jawbone of an ASS lately?

                        by Khepesh "This is the logic of Pruitt"

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by PhilipLaos View Post
                          That's right. Everything that can be made from wheat can be made from the other two staple grain crops: rice and maize.




                          Philip
                          No it can't, starting with Scotch whiskey.


                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by The Doctor View Post


                            Here's the [email protected]*%ed Enviromarxist non sequitor of the day...


                            "[A] mere 1 degree Fahrenheit of global temperature rise over the past 50 years has caused a 5.5 percent decline in wheat production."


                            Yet wheat and cereal production flourished during the Medieval Warm Period, when "temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than they are today"...


                            Obviously wheat can't handle any temperature. The LIA was too cold. Today it's too warm for wheat, even though the wheat flourished during the warmer MWP.

                            Whenever I run into a [email protected]*%ed Enviromarxist non sequitor, I always check the math.

                            Wheat production data for the period 1961-2010 are available from FAOSTAT and temperature data can be easily downloaded from Wood For Trees.



                            This explains why wheat liked the Medieval Warm Period and disliked the Little Ice Age. The only explanation for this sort of nonsense, is mental [email protected]*%ation...
                            “Wheat is a cool-season crop. High temperatures are negative for its growth and quality, no doubt about it,” says Frank Manthey, a professor at North Dakota State University who advises the North Dakota Wheat Commission. Already, a mere 1 degree Fahrenheit of global temperature rise over the past 50 years has caused a 5.5 percent decline in wheat production, according to David Lobell, a professor at Stanford University’s Center on Food Security and the Environment.
                            Wheat yield and production have more than doubled over the past 50 years.
                            Wrong again .

                            Wheat acreage has been increasing, hence the rise in wheat production, but returns per acre is reducing.

                            Check Missouri as an example: http://crops.missouri.edu/audit/wheat.htm .

                            This is why all your info is suspect because you do not state the whole picture, just one that supports your political agenda.
                            How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
                            Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
                              Wrong again .

                              Wheat acreage has been increasing, hence the rise in wheat production, but returns per acre is reducing.

                              Check Missouri as an example: http://crops.missouri.edu/audit/wheat.htm .

                              This is why all your info is suspect because you do not state the whole picture, just one that supports your political agenda.
                              See the blue curve in the chart on the left...


                              Whatever is or isn't happening in Missouri is irrelevant to the fact that global wheat yields and production are increasing and the area under harvest isn't.

                              The only things that are suspect are your logic and perception of context and scale.
                              Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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