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  • State of the Climate: Hurricanes & Tropical Storms

    I was watching the PBS program NOVA the other day and the program was about hurricane Sandy. I like Nova as it relates to me in terms that I can easily understand. I explained in graphics and narration the reason for its strange storm track and its strengthening. One item the really caught my attention was that statement that the Gulf Stream at the time was 3 to 5 degrees above average.

    Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (3-5°F above average) allowed Sandy to retain tropical characteristics much farther north than what is typical this late in the North Atlantic Hurricane Season.
    I don't know whether 'Global Warming" is real or just hype. And to be quite honest, I don't have the educational background to arrive at a informed opinion on it either. So I depend upon the opinions of experts.

    My questions, in all seriousness, are: Is the temperature anomaly within the Gulf Stream within the accepted limits and have there been any prior deviations that exceed the current one?

  • #2
    Unfortunately, the problem of global warming (a minor natural phenomenon exacerbated by human intervention) is real, only in the US are people thick enough to try and make political capital out of it.

    However, some of the events attributed to it are entirely natural, El Nino changing direction (a rare event, but not unknown) the Boxing-Day Tsunami (the result of an underwater earthquake), Hurricane Sandy (an unusual, northward drift of a hurricane) and, of course, the breakup of the Arctic Ice Sheet (this spectacular event happens every spring).

    While Global Warming wasn't responsible for Sandy, its long-term effects are a cause for concern - despite what the Republicans tell you.
    Indyref2 - still, "Yes."

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by the ace View Post
      Unfortunately, the problem of global warming (a minor natural phenomenon exacerbated by human intervention) is real, only in the US are people thick enough to try and make political capital out of it.

      .
      This is wrong on nearly every level. You may have heard of the U.N. and the IPCC? No political capital there...or in Australia! No politics there.

      The lethal politics of climate change:

      "To deploy an Americanism, climate change has become the third rail of Australian politics: treacherous, untouchable and normally lethal. Over the past five years, no leader on either side has come up with an environmental policy that is politically sustainable. Quite the opposite is true. Climate change has contributed already to the downfall of three Liberal leaders and a Labor Prime Minister.

      Green politics contributed to the downfall of John Howard. His refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol ahead of the 2007 election became emblematic"

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...f_climate.html
      "A common thug can kill someone, but it takes the talents of an intelligence service to make a murder appear to be a suicide or accident death." -- James Angleton, CIA, Chief of Counterintelligence.

      Comment


      • #4
        My Fingerspitzengefühl tells me that charts and/or graphs are on the way.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by unclefred View Post
          This is wrong on nearly every level. You may have heard of the U.N. and the IPCC? No political capital there...or in Australia! No politics there.

          The lethal politics of climate change:

          "To deploy an Americanism, climate change has become the third rail of Australian politics: treacherous, untouchable and normally lethal. Over the past five years, no leader on either side has come up with an environmental policy that is politically sustainable. Quite the opposite is true. Climate change has contributed already to the downfall of three Liberal leaders and a Labor Prime Minister.

          Green politics contributed to the downfall of John Howard. His refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol ahead of the 2007 election became emblematic"

          http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...f_climate.html
          The problem is that reducing carbon emissions costs both money and jobs - so while targets can be set, any government which attempts to implement such measures becomes unpopular, often with the same people who howl for something to be done. That's why that pillock, Salmond is frothing at the mouth over more wind farms - despite the fact they don't work.

          To be honest, I don't envy any government caught in such a dilemma, but pretending it isn't happening does no good at all.
          Indyref2 - still, "Yes."

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Gorque View Post
            I was watching the PBS program NOVA the other day and the program was about hurricane Sandy. I like Nova as it relates to me in terms that I can easily understand. I explained in graphics and narration the reason for its strange storm track and its strengthening. One item the really caught my attention was that statement that the Gulf Stream at the time was 3 to 5 degrees above average.



            I don't know whether 'Global Warming" is real or just hype. And to be quite honest, I don't have the educational background to arrive at a informed opinion on it either. So I depend upon the opinions of experts.
            My questions, in all seriousness, are: Is the temperature anomaly within the Gulf Stream within the accepted limits and have there been any prior deviations that exceed the current one?
            Where did the NOAA report say that the Gulf Stream was 3-5 °F above normal? This is what I see…

            Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (3-5°F above average) allowed Sandy to retain tropical characteristics much farther north than what is typical this late in the North Atlantic Hurricane Season.


            There was an area of unseasonably warm water off the coast of New England in late October. However, the sea surface temperature anomaly (2-3 °C above the 1971-2000 mean) at the time Sandy was rolling up the East Coast was actually in the Grand Banks area...


            The warm water anomaly was not along Sandy's track. Most of the water along Sandy's track was slightly cooler than normal. Sandy barely grazed the edge of the warm water anomaly just before landfall.

            Here is the sea surface temperature anomaly map...


            Here is the storm track map…


            Over the next three slides, I will merge the storm track with the SST map…






            Sandy didn’t encounter the unseasonably warm waters off New England until just before landfall. Sea surface temperatures of at least 28 °C are required to sustain a hurricane. The unseasonably high SST’s off New England were only 21-26 °C. The hurricane-sustaining SST’s along most of Sandy’s track were at or slightly below average for this time of year.

            Deviations of this magnitude occur quite often somewhere in the world…

            October 2007, North Pacific and Chukchi Sea…


            October 2010, Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay…


            October 2005, North Pacific and Grand Banks…


            October 2008, Chukchi Sea, Sea of Ohotsk and North Pacific…



            Sandy was a weak hurricane that just happened to collide with a Nor’Easter.

            Have the waters of the North Atlantic have ever been warmer?

            The answer to that is: Yes, the North Atlantic has been much warmer (and cooler) over the recent (geologically recent) past. If a climatologically warm Atlantic was the cause of these monster storms, the Medieval Warm Period must have been a veritable hurricane nightmare…



            HadSST, Sargasso Sea (Keigwin, 1996) and Major New England Hurricanes (Donnelly, 2001)


            And the Minoan Warm Period must have been an absolute hurricane apocalypse, even though the Atlantic was only about 2 °C warmer than when I was born (1958).

            The real global warming since about 1600 AD has caused the average sea surface temperature of the Northern Hemisphere to rise by about 0.6 °C since 1850.
            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by The Ibis View Post
              My Fingerspitzengefühl tells me that charts and/or graphs are on the way.
              And maps... Lots of maps...
              Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

              Comment


              • #8
                Bonus charts...



                Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                  Where did the NOAA report say that the Gulf Stream was 3-5 °F above normal? This is what I see…




                  Sandy didn’t encounter the unseasonably warm waters off New England until just before landfall. Sea surface temperatures of at least 28 °C are required to sustain a hurricane. The unseasonably high SST’s off New England were only 21-26 °C. The hurricane-sustaining SST’s along most of Sandy’s track were at or slightly below average for this time of year.

                  Deviations of this magnitude occur quite often somewhere in the world…

                  Sandy was a weak hurricane that just happened to collide with a Nor’Easter.

                  Have the waters of the North Atlantic have ever been warmer?

                  The answer to that is: Yes, the North Atlantic has been much warmer (and cooler) over the recent (geologically recent) past. If a climatologically warm Atlantic was the cause of these monster storms, the Medieval Warm Period must have been a veritable hurricane nightmare…


                  And the Minoan Warm Period must have been an absolute hurricane apocalypse, even though the Atlantic was only about 2 °C warmer than when I was born (1958).

                  The real global warming since about 1600 AD has caused the average sea surface temperature of the Northern Hemisphere to rise by about 0.6 °C since 1850.
                  My bad Dave. I could have sworn that it was reported that the Gulf Stream was 5 degrees warmer than normal. Here at the 8 minute mark. Thanks for taking the time to explain this.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by the ace View Post
                    The problem is that reducing carbon emissions costs both money and jobs - so while targets can be set, any government which attempts to implement such measures becomes unpopular, often with the same people who howl for something to be done. That's why that pillock, Salmond is frothing at the mouth over more wind farms - despite the fact they don't work.


                    There's another problem on top of those...

                    The warming effect of CO2 is a logarithmic function. Each additional unit of CO2 added to the atmosphere causes less heat to be retained than the previous unit.

                    So, minor reductions in CO2 emissions will have no effect at all on global temperatures.

                    The net impact (GHG's, aerosols, land-use changes, etc.) of humans on the average global surface temperature is currently about +0.2-4 °C. By the end of this century, atmospheric CO2 levels might be approaching roughly twice the pre-industrial level of 275 ppmv. This could add an additional +0.2-4 °C. In order to back off a significant fraction of that effect, we would have to cut per capita CO2 emissions back about what they were in the 1860's. Barring the un-discovery of fire, there's not a whole lot that can be done to alter this in any measureable way.

                    Now for the "good news"... The climate fluctuates on a couple of cycles that are relevant to humans (~60- and ~1,000-yr preiods). We are currently in the cool phase of the ~60-yr cycle (hence no global warming since about 1998) and the warm phase of the 1,000-yr cycle. The current warm phase of the millennial cycle started in about 1600 AD (the coldest bit of the Little Ice Age). We will hit the cool phase of the millennial cycle sometime between now and the end of this century. Our minuscule anthropogenic effect should make the next Little Ice Age a bit more tolerable than the last Little Ice Age.

                    It would be nice if we could anthropogenically prevent the next stage of glaciation... But, we might, at best only delay it for a few centuries. But, that's not something we'll have to worry about for at least a couple of thousands of years.

                    Originally posted by the ace
                    To be honest, I don't envy any government caught in such a dilemma, but pretending it isn't happening does no good at all.
                    I'd rather have a gov't pretending that it isn't happening, rather than one believing it can legislate and regulate climate change.
                    Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Gorque View Post
                      My bad Dave. I could have sworn that it was reported that the Gulf Stream was 5 degrees warmer than normal. Here at the 8 minute mark. Thanks for taking the time to explain this.
                      Here's a velocity map of the Gulf Stream for late October...



                      Sandy tracked seaward of the Gulf Stream until it veered landward, crossing the Gulf Stream just south of the warm water anomaly...



                      Sandy and the Gulf Stream were in cooler than average SST's from Florida almost all the way to New England.
                      Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by The Doctor View Post
                        Here's a velocity map of the Gulf Stream for late October...

                        Sandy tracked seaward of the Gulf Stream until it veered landward, crossing the Gulf Stream just south of the warm water anomaly...

                        Sandy and the Gulf Stream were in cooler than average SST's from Florida almost all the way to New England.
                        Thanks again Dave. So basically, the Nova presentation about Sandy tracking across warmer than normal waters was, at a minimum, in error.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Gorque View Post
                          I was watching the PBS program NOVA the other day and the program was about hurricane Sandy. I like Nova as it relates to me in terms that I can easily understand. I explained in graphics and narration the reason for its strange storm track and its strengthening. One item the really caught my attention was that statement that the Gulf Stream at the time was 3 to 5 degrees above average.



                          I don't know whether 'Global Warming" is real or just hype. And to be quite honest, I don't have the educational background to arrive at a informed opinion on it either. So I depend upon the opinions of experts.

                          My questions, in all seriousness, are: Is the temperature anomaly within the Gulf Stream within the accepted limits and have there been any prior deviations that exceed the current one?
                          New York has suffered many hurricanes before.

                          Before 1800

                          • between 1278 and 1438 — A major hurricane struck the modern-day New York/New Jersey area, probably the strongest in recent millennium.
                          • August 25, 1635 — A hurricane that is reported to have tracked parallel to the East Coast impacts New England and New York, although it remains unknown if any damage occurred.
                          • September 8, 1667 — A 'severe storm' is reported in Manhattan and is reported to be a continuation of a powerful hurricane which affected the Mid-Atlantic.[2]
                          • October 29, 1693 — The Great Storm of 1693 causes severe damage on Long Island, and is reported to create the Fire Island Cut as a result of the coast-changing storm surge and waves.[2][3]
                          • September 23, 1785 — Several large ships crash into Governors Island as a result of powerful waves which are reported to have been generated by a tropical cyclone.[3]
                          • August 19, 1788 — A hurricane strikes New York City or Long Island and is reported to have left the west side of the Battery "laid in ruins" after severe flooding occurs.[3]

                          1800–99


                          Estimated track of the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane


                          • October 9, 1804 — Heavy snow falls in Eastern New York peaking at 30 inches (75 cm) as a hurricane tracks northward along the East Coast and becomes extratropical, as cold air fed into the system.[4]
                          • September 5, 1815 — A hurricane tracks over North Carolina and parallels the East Coast before producing a heavy rainstorm in New York.[5]
                          • September 24, 1815 — Several hundred trees fall and the majority of the fruit was stripped off apple trees just prior to harvesting time after a hurricane makes landfall on Long Island.[6]
                          • September 16, 1816 — A possible hurricane strikes New York City, but damage remains unknown.[2]
                          • August 9, 1817 — A tropical storm produces heavy rainfall in New York City and Long Island.[2]
                          • September 3, 1821 — The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane results in severe damage on Long Island and is accompanied by storm surge of 13 feet (4 m). High wind causes a ship to crash on Long Island killing 17 people.[7]
                          • June 4, 1825 — A hurricane moves off the East Coast and tracks south of New York causing several ship wrecks, and killing seven people.[3]
                          • August 27, 1827 — High tides are reported in New York City which are caused by a hurricane offshore.[8]
                          • August 1, 1830 – A hurricane passes to the east of New York and produces gale-force winds to New York City and Long Island.[9]
                          • October 4, 1841 — Gale–force winds affect New York City as a hurricane tracks north along the East Coast of the United States. Damage is estimated at $2 million (1841 USD, $41 million 2007 USD).[10]

                          • October 13, 1846 — The Great Havana Hurricane of 1846 tracks inland, causing some damage to New York City.[3]
                          • October 6, 1849 — Severe structural damage occurs in New York City and Long Island with the passage of a hurricane to the east.[3]
                          • July 19, 1850 — A hurricane destroys a Coney Island bath house and causes heavy rain, although damage is unknown.[3] This storm destroyed the ship Elizabeth off Fire Island and drowned American transcendentalist Margaret Fuller.
                          • August 24, 1850 — A storm that is reported to be a hurricane affects New York and New England although there is no known damage.[2]
                          • September 9, 1854 — A hurricane brushes the East Coast from Florida to New England causing rain on Long Island.[3]
                          • September 16, 1858 — Low barometric pressure of 28.87 inches mercury at Sag Harbor is reported, and is thought to be associated with a tropical cyclone which causes no known damage.[3]
                          • September 6, 1869 — A category 3 hurricane makes landfall in Rhode Island and brushes Long Island, which is affected by rain, although minimal damage resulted from the storm.[3]
                          • October 28, 1872 — A tropical storm passes over New York City and Long Island.[11]
                          • October 1, 1874 — New York City and the Hudson Valley receives rainfall after a minimal tropical storm tracked over Eastern New York.[11]
                          • September 19, 1876 — The remnants of the San Felipe hurricane track over western New York State, although damage is unknown.[11]
                          • October 24, 1878 — The state is affected by tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain with the passage of a hurricane, which made landfall in Virginia.[11][12]
                          • August 22, 1888 — A tropical storm tracks over New York City before tracking north along the East Coast of the United States.[11]
                          • August 24, 1893 — Hog Island is washed away by strong storm surge associated with a tropical storm of unknown strength.[3] According to HURDAT, this was a Category 1 hurricane that struck the western end of the Rockaway Peninsula, passing through Brooklyn as a weakening hurricane. Manhattan Island saw gale force winds to 56 mph.
                          • October 10, 1894 10 People were killed and 15 injured at 74 Monroe Street in Manhattan when winds blew a building under construction onto a tenement crushing it. Extensive damage in the NYC and Long Island to telegraph lines, trees and boats docked on shore. Storm formed over Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 weakened over land in the Southeast and re strengthened to a Category 1 over the Chesapeake Bay before striking Long Island.[13][14]

                          1900–49


                          Storm surge from the 1938 New England hurricane


                          • September 17, 1903 — The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane produces wind gusts in excess of 65 mph (105 km/h) and 3 inches (75 mm) of rain in Central Park.[15]
                          • August 15, 1904 — A Category 2 hurricane skirts the East Coast of the United States producing gale-force winds and heavy rain in Eastern New York and Long Island.[16]
                          • August 2, 1908 — A hurricane develops near North Carolina and moves northward along the coast, brushing Long Island.[17]
                          • July 21, 1916 — Strong winds are reported on Long Island as a category 3 hurricane passes to the east.[3]
                          • August 25, 1933 — The 1933 Chesapeake Potomac Hurricane produces up to 6 inches (150 mm) of rain in Southeast New York State; other damage is unknown.[18]
                          • September 8, 1934 — A strong tropical storm makes landfall on Long Island.[19]
                          • September 20, 1936 — Strong waves and storm surge associated with a powerful hurricane floods much of Long Beach Island and causes severe beach erosion along the coast.[20]
                          • September 21, 1938 — The New England Hurricane of 1938 (Also Called "The Long Island Express") makes landfall on Suffolk County (Long Island) as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.[21] Wind gusts of 125 mph (200 km/h) and storm surge of 18 feet (5 m) washes across part of the island.[22] In New York 60 deaths and hundreds of injuries were attributed to the storm.[23] In addition, 2,600 boats and 8,900 houses are destroyed.[24] Throughout New England the hurricane killed over 682 people,[25] damaged or destroyed over 57,000 homes, and caused property losses estimated at $4.7 billion (2005 US dollars).[26]
                          • September 14, 1944 — The 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane makes landfall on Long Island as a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale at a high forward speed of 40 mph (64 km/h). Wind gusts of well over 100 mph (160 km/h) breaks previous wind records in New York City, while a minimum pressure reading of 28.47 inches is recorded on Long Island. 117 homes are completely destroyed, while 2,427 are severely damaged and almost 1000 businesses are destroyed or damaged. In all, six people are killed, and one person is injured.[27]
                          • September 18, 1945 — A weak tropical depression crosses into Southeastern New York.[11]
                          • August 29, 1949 — A tropical storm tracks into Central New York causing no known damage.[11]

                          1950–74


                          Rainfall from Hurricane Agnes (1972)


                          • 1954 — Hurricane Hazel - wind gust of 113 mph at Battery Park, highest ever recorded in New York City.
                          • August 31, 1954 — Hurricane Carol makes landfall on Long Island and produces wind gusts of 120 miles per hour (190 km/h) on Montauk Point.[3] On eastern Long Island near where Carol made landfall, a pressure of 960 mbar is recorded.[28] Winds on the island gust to 120 mph (195 km/h). The hurricane's storm surge covers the Montauk Highway in Montauk, effectively isolating eastern Long Island for a period of time. Due to the compact nature of the storm, most of Long Island is largely unaffected by the hurricane.[28] Specific damage totals for New York are unknown, although the storm in its entirety causes $460 million (1954 USD) in damage.[28]
                          • September 10, 1954 — Hurricane Edna tracks to the east of Long Island producing 9 inches (230 mm) of rain.[3] Prior to the storm, New York City orders an emergency standby for the majority of its hospitals, and subways.[29]
                          • August 13, 1955 — Hurricane Connie produces 13.24 inches (370 mm) of rain in Southeast New York, although damage is unknown.[30]
                          • September 28, 1956 — Hurricane Flossy tracks to the south of Long Island, brushing it with light rainfall.[31]
                          • October 1, 1959 — The remnants of Hurricane Gracie track into Central New York and drops up to 6 inches (150 mm) of rain.[32]
                          • September 11, 1960 — Hurricane Donna makes landfall on Long Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Sustained winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) on eastern Long Island and 70 mph (110 km/h) winds on western Long Island are reported, and tides are 6 feet (2 m) above normal along most of the coast. Strong waves also cause beach erosion and several homes along the shore to be destroyed. Due to well-executed warnings, damages are extremely low, and it is reported that no deaths result from the storm.[33]
                          • September 21, 1961 — Hurricane Esther causes $3 million (1961 USD, $20 million 2007 USD) in damage in Suffolk County as it tracks to the east of Long Island. Coastal areas of Long Island were flooded, as well as storm surge and wind gusts of 108 mph (173 km/h), which causes 260,000 homes to be left without power.[34]
                          • October 8, 1962 — Hurricane Daisy tracks east of New England, producing light rainfall in extreme eastern portions of Upstate New York.[35]
                          • September 23, 1964 — Beach erosion and moderate wind gusts are reported on Long Island as Hurricane Gladys tracks a couple hundred miles south of New York.[36]
                          • October 19, 1964 — Light rainfall is reported as Hurricane Isbell tracks off the coast.[37]
                          • September 10, 1969 — Rainfall up to 3 inches (75 mm) is reported on Long Island and in portions of Southeastern New York associated with Hurricane Gerda.[38]
                          • August 28, 1971 — Tropical Storm Doria produces up to 8 inches (200 mm) of rain in New York City and Upstate New York causing moderate to severe flooding and floods subways in New York City.[39][40]
                          • June 22, 1972 — Hurricane Agnes makes landfall near New York City and produces up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain in Southeastern New York State and much of Western New York, with locally higher amounts. Storm tides of 3.1 feet (1 m) and wind gusts of 55 miles per hour (89 km/h) occur in New York City, and severe river flooding causes six deaths.[41]
                          • September 4, 1972 — Tropical Storm Carrie produces light rainfall on the eastern end of Long Island.[42]

                          1975–99

                          • August 11, 1976 — Hurricane Belle makes landfall on Long Island as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, producing up to 6 inches (150 mm) of rain.[43] 30,000 people are evacuated in New York in anticipation of Belle. Wind gusts of up to 70 mph and tides of 7.2 feet (2.3 m) above normal are reported in New York City and Long Island. Moderate river flooding occurs, as well as minor crop damage. In all, one person is killed by a falling tree, and damage is reported at $257 million (1976 USD, $980 million 2007 USD).[44]
                          • September 1, 1978 — The remnants of Tropical Storm Debra produces light rainfall along the southern edge of New York State.[45]
                          • September 7, 1979 — The remnants of Hurricane David produce light to moderate rainfall up to 3 inches (75 mm) in much of New York State.[46]
                          • September 2, 1983 — Tropical Storm Dean produces light rain near New York City[47] and causes minor beach erosion.[48]
                          • Late October, 1984 — The remnants of a tropical depression track just north of New York City, producing extremely light showers.[49]
                          • July 1985 — The remnants of Hurricane Bob produce light rainfall in Southeastern New York.[50]
                          • September 25, 1985 — The remnants of Tropical Storm Henri produce light rain in isolated areas.[51]


                          Hurricane Gloria to the south of New York (1985)


                          • September 27, 1985 — Hurricane Gloria makes landfall on Long Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Wind gusts of up to 100 mph (135 km/h) and 3.4 inches (86 mm) of rain [52] contribute to $300 million (1985 USD, $591 million 2007 USD) in damage, and one fatality.[53] In addition, 48 homes on Long Island were destroyed, and hundreds more were damaged.[53]
                          • September 10, 1987 — Tropical Depression Eleven produces rainfall up to 3 inches (75 mm) in much of New York State.[54]
                          • August 30, 1988 — Tropical Storm Chris produces moderate rainfall in Upstate New York.[55]
                          • September 24, 1989 — The remnants of Hurricane Hugo produce light rain and gusty winds in Central and Eastern New York.[56]
                          • August 28, 1991 — Hurricane Bob comes within a short distance of making landfall on the eastern tip of Long Island as a category 2 hurricane. Heavy rainfall up to 7 inches (175 mm) and high wind gusts causes two deaths and $75 million (1991 USD, $117 million 2007 USD), as well as severe beach erosion which came as a result of storm surge up to 6 feet (2 m) above average.[57]
                          • October 30, 1991 — The 1991 Perfect Storm kills one man when he is swept off a bridge, and causes moderate to severe beach erosion.[58]
                          • August 28, 1992 — The remnants of Hurricane Andrew produce light rainfall in the western portions of the state.[59]


                          Hurricane Floyd produced heavy rain in New York (1999).


                          • September 27, 1992 — Tropical Storm Danielle produces light rain in Western New York.[60]
                          • July 22, 1994 — Tropical Depression Two produces light rain in isolated areas of the state and generates thunderstorms which down several trees.[61]
                          • August 18, 1994 — Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants produce up to 3 inches (75 mm) of rain in Central New York[62] causing moderate flooding which causes two fatalities and $1.5 million (1994 USD, $21 million 2007 USD) in damage, and 14 homes are damaged or destroyed. In addition, State Route 7 was closed for several hours due to flooding.[63]
                          • July 13, 1996 — Hurricane Bertha makes landfall on Long Island as a tropical storm, producing heavy rainfall which caused moderate flooding in the lower Hudson Valley in addition to tropical storm-force winds.[64]
                          • July 24, 1997 — Hurricane Danny causes light rainfall over New York City and Long Island.[65]
                          • September 8, 1999 — The remnants of Hurricane Dennis produce bands of heavy rain which caused some flooding, especially in Rockland County where three feet of flood water accumulated in some locations.[66]
                          • September 16, 1999 — Hurricane Floyd produces rainfall up to 13 inches (325 mm) and wind gusts of up to 60 mph (95 km/h) affect Southeastern New York. Severe flooding results from the storm, killing two people and causing an early estimate of $14.6 million (1997 USD, $18 million 2007 USD), although it is reported that damage could total to far more than that. One of the deaths occurred when a person was swept into a flooded river.[67][68]

                          2000 and after


                          The outer rainbands of Hurricane Isabel affected the state in 2003.


                          • September 20, 2000 — The remnants of Hurricane Gordon produce light rainfall in Southeastern New York State.[69]
                          • June 17, 2001 — The remnants of Tropical Storm Allison produce moderate rainfall up to 3 inches (75 mm), although it fell in just a couple hours causing minor to moderate flash flooding.[70]
                          • August 10, 2002 — Tropical Storm Cristobal generates rip currents which drown three people on the coast of Long Island.[71]
                          • September 28, 2002 — The remnants of Hurricane Isidore produce widespread light rainfall over much of the state and moderate wind gusts.[72] Some small trees are blown down, and minor power outages are reported.[73]
                          • September 21, 2003 — Hurricane Isabel affects the state with high winds and flooding. Damage in New York totals to $90 million (2003 USD, $98 million 2006 USD).[68] In and around New York City, about 1.1 million customers were left without power, though most outages were fixed by the day after the hurricane passed through the region.[74] Offshore of Long Beach, rough waves killed a man while bodysurfing.[75]
                          • August 4, 2004 — Hurricane Alex drops 2.83 inches (70 mm) of rain on Long Island.[76]
                          • August 13, 2004 — Tropical Storm Bonnie produces rainfall peaking at 4 inches causing several rivers to swell to at or slightly above flood stage.[77]
                          • August 14, 2004 — Hurricane Charley brushes Long Island and produces light rainfall.[76]
                          • September 4, 2004 — Hurricane Gaston produces light rainfall on Long Island.[78]
                          • September 9, 2004 — The remnants of Hurricane Frances produces heavy rainfall up to 7 inches (175 mm) which causes extensive flooding in central New York. One death, a drowning, and $6 million (2005 USD, $6.5 million 2007 USD) in damage results from the flooding.[79][80]
                          • July 9, 2005 — The remnants of Hurricane Cindy produce moderate rainfall in Upstate New York causing light damage due to flooding and gusty winds, which downed some trees.[81]
                          • August 30, 2005 — The remnants of Hurricane Katrina produce heavy rainfall up to 5 inches (125 mm) of rain in the western portion of the state. High winds also affect the state, with 4,500 people in Buffalo left without power after high winds downed trees and power lines.[82]
                          • October 5, 2005 — Tropical Storm Tammy's remnants contribute to a rainstorm which turns into the Northeast U.S. flooding of October 2005. Up to 13 inches (325 mm) of rain cause severe flooding throughout the Hudson Valley, killing 10 and causing millions of dollars in damage.[83][84]
                          • September 2, 2006 — The remnants of Hurricane Ernesto produce light to moderate rainfall over much of the state and wind gusts of up to 60 miles per hour (97 km/h).[85] Numerous trees and powerlines are reported fallen, and several thousand people are left without power, primarily in the New York City area.[86]
                          • June 5, 2007 — Tropical Storm Barry produces 3.91 inches (99 mm) of rain in New York City.[87] The heavy rainfall leads to flooding in the Finger Lakes region of New York State, washing out roads and driveways. Roads and several driveways were washed out.[88]
                          • September 6, 2008 — Hurricane Hanna strikes Long Island with gusts of winds of 52 mph (84 km/h) at Shinnecock Inlet. Aside from numerous downed trees, damage is minimal.[89]
                          • August 22, 2009 — Offshore Hurricane Bill causes severe beach erosion and coastal damage on the southern shore of Long Island.[90]

                          • August 27–28, 2011 — Hurricane Irene makes landfall on Coney Island as a Category 1 hurricane and immediately weakens to a tropical storm shortly thereafter. Storm surge reaches underneath the boardwalks in both Coney Island and Long Beach. The Hudson River flooded, inundating parts of lower Manhattan. Top recorded winds reach 70 mph at the height of the storm and causes parts of New York City and Metropolitan areas to evacuate; the city shuts down including MTA, and mass transit. Wind gusts topped 91 mph (146 km/h) in Sayville, NY. There were 2 EF0 tornadoes that were confirmed by the National Weather Service, although the damage caused by these tornadoes were minimal. Also Irene caused many power outages and trees down. It was reported that LIPA The Long Island Power Authority had over 400,000 power outages. The storm killed five people in the state. The storm also had major impact on Upstate NY, including the Capital District Region. Severe flooding was widespread, with the Mohawk River rising 3.2 feet above flood stage in Schenectady, NY's historical Stockade district. Schenectady County Community College was severely flooded, causing upwards of $1 million in damage. Parts of Greene, Schoharie, and Delaware Counties were nearly unreachable. This storm was also historic in another way, in that it caused the National Weather Service in Albany, NY to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for the local forecast area. This had never been done before, and actually required a breach in protocol to achieve. Prior to this event, the Albany, NY forecast area was considered outside of the valid area for Tropical Storm warnings.

                          • October 28-29, 2012- Hurricane Sandy makes landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey with 85 m.p.h. winds. Sandy causes a 13.7 foot storm surge at Battery Park, New York City, flooding parts of lower Manhattan. The immediate aftermath includes widespread power outages and a system-wide disruption of mass transit service. Hurricane Sandy wasn't selective in her savage sweep across the northeast, among effected New Yorkers, many fashion folk in New York City were forced out of their apartments [91]. Sandy has a significant effect on the digital world. 1/4 of cable, Internet, and wireless providers were unable to properly operate following the storm.
                          Last edited by Mountain Man; 21 Nov 12, 08:35.
                          Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by the ace View Post
                            The problem is that reducing carbon emissions costs both money and jobs - so while targets can be set, any government which attempts to implement such measures becomes unpopular, often with the same people who howl for something to be done. That's why that pillock, Salmond is frothing at the mouth over more wind farms - despite the fact they don't work.

                            To be honest, I don't envy any government caught in such a dilemma, but pretending it isn't happening does no good at all.
                            The real problem is that "reducing carbon emissions" is ridiculous and useless unless everyone in the entire world also does it just it rigorously...and they do not.

                            China and Japan are two of the worst polluters in modern history, and continue to be.


                            As for wind farms, when the White House receives all of it's electrical power from wind turbines set up in the Rose Garden and the front lawn, I'll start believing it might be useful technology.

                            Politicians always talk the the talk, but they don't walk the walk.
                            Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Who is watching the watchers?

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Gorque View Post
                              Thanks again Dave. So basically, the Nova presentation about Sandy tracking across warmer than normal waters was, at a minimum, in error.
                              I don't watch Nova... The only science fiction I watch on PBS is Doctor Who and Blake's 7...

                              I think Nova was probably over-simplifying things. They may also have been relying on Kevin Trenberth, rather than actual hurricane experts.

                              As best as I can tell, this is the original source of the 5 °F claim...
                              Opinion: Super Storm Sandy
                              What role did climate change play in this week’s massive hurricane?

                              By Kevin Trenberth | October 31, 2012


                              [...]

                              The sea surface temperatures just before the storm were some 5°F above the 30-year average, or “normal,” for this time of year over a 500 mile swath off the coastline from the Carolinas to Canada, and 1°F of this is very likely a direct result of global warming.

                              [...]

                              Kevin Trenberth is a distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). He has been heavily engaged in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), where he currently chairs the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program, as well as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for which he shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.


                              The Scientist
                              This claim was further misinterpreted by quite a few people. I skewered one of those misinterpretations in this WUWT article.

                              The claim in and of itself was obviously wrong, if not an intentional lie. The sea surface temperature maps clearly show that SST's along most of Sandy's path were at or slightly below climatology (the 30-yr reference period). The only waters approaching +5 °F anywhere near Sandy was off New England, primarily in the Grand Banks area.

                              Trenberth asserts, without any evidence, that 80% of those +5 °F were due to natural weather patterns and climatic oscillations and 20% were "very likely a direct result of global warming." His assertion is kind of bizarre. I have to assume that he meant to say that 1 °F of the 5 °F was due to anthropogenic global warming. And that's not unreasonable.

                              SST's in the North Atlantic have warmed by ~1.5 °C since ca. 1600 AD. All of that increase in temperature is due to global warming. Is some of it due to human activities? Most likely some of it (0.2-0.4 °C) is due to human activities. Mankind has been reshaping the physical geography of the Earth for a very long time. Land-use changes, agriculture, urbanization and industrialization all affect the climate. So, it's quite possible that 20% of the warming since the coldest part of the Little Ice Age is related to anthropogenic activities; although, it is impossible to differentiate the anthropogenic change from the natural change. Of course, since humans are naturally occurring organisms, our effect on the climate is just as natural as that of trees.
                              Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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