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Nicholas II dies in Otsu

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  • Nicholas II dies in Otsu

    The sword of the policeman guarding Nicholas II in Otsu in 1891 severs the Tsarevich's jugular. The policeman then kills his startled cousin, prince George of Greece and Denmark.

    Russia, Greece and Denmark declare war on Japan. China seizes the opportunity to stop Japanese expansionism in Korea and joins them.

    Japan needs Korean soy and produce, so when Chinese and Russian troops occupy Korea and stop trade with Japan, the latter experiences a food shortage. The Japanese fleet is no match for the combined fleets. Japanese industry is still in its infancy, so Japan relies on imports, but its weak economy and fleet cannot secure them.

  • #2
    The only one of that bunch that is any sort of real threat to Japan is Russia. The result of this scenario is the Russo-Japanese war and Japan wins. Japan stomps China's little navy and then invades taking what becomes Manchukuo much earlier and with less opposition from the US since China started the war.
    Denmark has no navy, no army... Well, none to speak of... and Greece is incapable of operating outside Greece so those two are no threat.
    Worse, none of this has any effect on the Japanese economy. Japan tries and then executes the policeman along with others as "conspirators" claiming it was a rogue act. That puts the ball in Russia's (and her allies) court to explain why they went to war.

    Japan comes out way ahead. Russia gets a new Czar. Denmark's government gets tossed out of office and the new government immediately sues for peace.
    Greece's government collapses amid protests over the stupidity of going to war with a nation half the around the world. Same thing.

    China gets kicked to the curb by Japan.

    Japan wins.

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    • #3
      TAG nails it.

      Denmark & Greece has no ability. China should know better-its not in any shape to go to war in 1891 with any power, as the Boxer Rebellion will shortly demonstrate.

      Russia might, but the outcome won't be any better than it was in RL.

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      • #4
        Since Japan didn't had a navy comparable with Russian in 1891, things could be bad for them without hte possibility to project power on continent.
        There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Idiots

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        • #5
          Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
          The only one of that bunch that is any sort of real threat to Japan is Russia. The result of this scenario is the Russo-Japanese war and Japan wins. Japan stomps China's little navy and then invades taking what becomes Manchukuo much earlier and with less opposition from the US since China started the war.
          Denmark has no navy, no army... Well, none to speak of... and Greece is incapable of operating outside Greece so those two are no threat.
          Worse, none of this has any effect on the Japanese economy. Japan tries and then executes the policeman along with others as "conspirators" claiming it was a rogue act. That puts the ball in Russia's (and her allies) court to explain why they went to war.

          Japan comes out way ahead. Russia gets a new Czar. Denmark's government gets tossed out of office and the new government immediately sues for peace.
          Greece's government collapses amid protests over the stupidity of going to war with a nation half the around the world. Same thing.

          China gets kicked to the curb by Japan.

          Japan wins.
          Please check out the IJN and IJA at the time of the assassination.
          Japan defeated China (alone) a few years later, when its navy was much ctronger and China weaker. Japan was so weak that it could not respond even to the the Nagasaki incident, a few years before.
          Last edited by Draco; 01 May 15, 13:04.

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          • #6
            In 1891 the Greek navy had several cruisers and received the French built 4,800 t battleship Spetsai with 10" guns and the following year 2 sister ships.

            Check out the 3,000 t Danish cruiser Hekla, which could have sunk cruisers being delivered to Japan in Britain that year and the Japanese commercial fleet.

            Greece, Denmark, China and Russia benefit greatly from establishing strong cooperation, which will ensure rapid destruction of the Japanese navy and commercial fleet and eventual destruction of the Ottoman fleets.
            Last edited by Draco; 01 May 15, 13:32.

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            • #7
              Let me guess, you've realized the impracticability of a Russian war against Japan in 1938, so you've decided to re-do the scenario 50 years earlier?

              The Russians also didn't have a Trans-Siberian Railway at this time either. It was started in 1891 and completed in 1916.
              Last edited by BobTheBarbarian; 01 May 15, 15:32.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Draco View Post
                In 1891 the Greek navy had several cruisers and received the French built 4,800 t battleship Spetsai with 10" guns and the following year 2 sister ships.

                Check out the 3,000 t Danish cruiser Hekla, which could have sunk cruisers being delivered to Japan in Britain that year and the Japanese commercial fleet.

                Greece, Denmark, China and Russia benefit greatly from establishing strong cooperation, which will ensure rapid destruction of the Japanese navy and commercial fleet and eventual destruction of the Ottoman fleets.
                Check out the 3,000 t Danish cruiser Hekla, which could have sunk cruisers being delivered to Japan in Britain that year and the Japanese commercial fleet.

                If you check out the 3000 ton Hekla, you will search in vain. Hekla displaced 1322 tons, was capable of a maximum speed of 17 knots, and had a main armament of either two or three 15 cm guns, each with a rate of fire of one shot per minute.

                According to British records, three cruisers had been built for the Japanese navy by British yards by 1891, these being Chiyoda (commissioned January, 1891), Naniwa, and Takachino (both commissioned in December 1885).

                All three were protected cruisers. Chiyoda displaced 3615 tons and was armed with 10 x 4.7 inch guns, maximum speed 19 knots.

                The other two were sisters, each displacing 3650 tons, armed with 2 x 10 inch and 6 x 6 inch guns, and capable of 18.5 knots.

                Do you really think Hekla could have sunk any of these?

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Draco View Post
                  In 1891 the Greek navy had several cruisers and received the French built 4,800 t battleship Spetsai with 10" guns and the following year 2 sister ships.

                  Check out the 3,000 t Danish cruiser Hekla, which could have sunk cruisers being delivered to Japan in Britain that year and the Japanese commercial fleet.

                  Greece, Denmark, China and Russia benefit greatly from establishing strong cooperation, which will ensure rapid destruction of the Japanese navy and commercial fleet and eventual destruction of the Ottoman fleets.
                  Sure, let's...

                  First trying to "sink" a Japanese cruiser being delivered from Britain is likely to get the Danish navy sunk by the Royal Navy as they aren't going to be too keen on the Danes having a war in their home waters.
                  The RN nearly opened up on the Russian fleet leaving the Baltic for it's 'world tour' to the Pacific because the Russians opened fire on fishing vessels in the Channel in a fog.

                  But, then there's the POS ships you mention.

                  The Spetsai, a Hydra class casemate ironclad, not a "battleship" is a piece of junk. The operative number is 500 which is the tonnage of coal it carries. It couldn't get out of the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean without coaling.
                  The main battery is 3 10" / L27 Black powder breech loaders of which only 2 can bear on a target. I'd guess the ROF at about 1 round every 2 or 3 minutes per gun. Hardly a really dangerous ship.




                  The Danish cruiser Hekla is a joke too. It is a 3rd or 4th class cruiser to begin with that has a crew of 156 officers and men. It has just some protective plating no thicker than 1" (25mm). The main armament is a mere 2 15 cm BL cannon that have a very slow rate of fire.
                  It has a listed range of 1,800 NM which means it's barely able to get into the Atlantic before having to head back to Denmark.
                  She's low freeboard and designed for coastal defense.





                  When you add that most European countries and their colonies won't allow warships of a nation at war to even dock (they did that to the Russians too), that means having to have merchant ships that can go in for coal and then coal the warships at sea.
                  Neither the Greek or Danish navy has any experience doing that. The Russians don't either and it was like a Three Stooges comedy the first few times they tried. By the time they made the IO they'd gotten better at it but that was all they did. Steam and coal. The crews didn't get much combat practice as a result.
                  Last edited by T. A. Gardner; 01 May 15, 16:04. Reason: added pictures

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                  • #10
                    Valkyrien was the 3,000 t Danish cruiser

                    http://www.navalhistory.dk/english/T...%281890%29.htm

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                    • #11
                      TAG, You mention breechloaders as if it was a disadvantage, did You want muzzle loaders? Black powder was the standard in 1891.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Draco View Post
                        TAG, You mention breechloaders as if it was a disadvantage, did You want muzzle loaders? Black powder was the standard in 1891.
                        Breech loaders are at a disadvantage to QF guns. For example, the cruiser Chidoya was mentioned. She has 10 4.7" QF guns. She'd pummel the Helka in a one on one fight. For every 15cm shell the Helka fired the Chidoya would return with greater accuracy 20 or 30 rounds that would tear the Danish ship apart.

                        Breech loaders are a big disadvantage.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Draco View Post
                          Valkyrien was the 3,000 t Danish cruiser

                          http://www.navalhistory.dk/english/T...%281890%29.htm
                          She's also station ship in what has become the US Virgin Islands at the time... Denmark sold them the US....

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
                            Let me guess, you've realized the impracticability of a Russian war against Japan in 1938, so you've decided to re-do the scenario 50 years earlier?

                            The Russians also didn't have a Trans-Siberian Railway at this time either. It was started in 1891 and completed in 1916.
                            Excellent point-that would have created a serious check on Russian rage. The single biggest argument against the 1905 war, which they lost, was by officers citing the railway's incomplete state.

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                            • #15
                              Even when it was first completed, there were several points in the system where the trains had to be unloaded and then loaded for the next section along with several ferry points like Lake Baikal.

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