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  • Originally posted by hairog View Post

    There is not one credible historian who has disagreed with the premise that in May 1946 the Red Army could have conquered all of continental Europe and Scandinavia in less than 3 months. Find me one and we can talk more about it until then I consider the case closed.
    Not this again.

    Details already provided to you several times, but you don't want to talk about it. Your story uses the US war plans, based on US intelligence assessments from the time, which greatly over-estimated Soviet strength and aggressiveness.

    That's fine if you want to write "extreme alternative history" but don't try to claim it is realistic.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Aber View Post
      Not this again.

      Details already provided to you several times, but you don't want to talk about it. Your story uses the US war plans, based on US intelligence assessments from the time, which greatly over-estimated Soviet strength and aggressiveness.

      That's fine if you want to write "extreme alternative history" but don't try to claim it is realistic.
      Precisely, all the while exaggerating the capacity of the Red Army while simultaneously using the worst possible cases for the Western militaries, most of which are too, exaggerated by an order of magnitude or greater.

      Comment


      • Do not try and get around closed threads by introducing arguments elsewhere. That is one of the fastest route to a vacation you can find

        - The Staff
        Last edited by The Purist; 17 Jan 15, 16:26.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Aber View Post
          Not this again.

          Details already provided to you several times, but you don't want to talk about it. Your story uses the US war plans, based on US intelligence assessments from the time, which greatly over-estimated Soviet strength and aggressiveness.

          That's fine if you want to write "extreme alternative history" but don't try to claim it is realistic.
          You have not provided any so far. Please provide the historians or quotes or anything you contend to have.

          Very interesting Video I found.

          Video link

          Published on Mar 2, 2014
          This powerful documentary explores the condition of Germany when the fighting stopped in 1945 and the subsequent four years of occupation and reconstruction. Views are taken from all sides, but German voices are given predominance. With some remarkable footage and moving testimony, this film is an important addition to the history of post-war Europe. Uploaded for educational purposes only.
          It is interesting that the real story of 1946-48 is finally being told. Prior to a few years ago this time in history was roundly rejected and ignored. It was like it was erased from our collective memory. Man's inhumanity to man continued long after the end of the war.

          Many myths have been perpetrated on this time period of the benevolent conquers saving Europe from itself. It took two full years and the introduction of the Marshal plan to make this truly a reality and even then the main reason for our benevolence was to stop the spread of communism. What was going on in Germany after the war was widely known yet ignored until another enemy raised its frightening head and we were forced to change our course.

          The images of GIs handing out chocolate bars to children were publicized and not the massive amounts of looting, pillaging, physical abuse, torture and raping going on by the occupation forces.

          My point is that the Us, French and British troops that were in Western Europe in May 1946 were ill trained, ill led and out of control and would have been no match for the Red Army. They had other things on their mind than standing guard and training for combat.

          Watch the video and you'll see what they really were doing.
          www.wwiii1946.blogspot.com
          http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00...pf_rd_i=507846

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Aber View Post
            It deserves a forum of its own.

            I think it could be close:

            Draco's shotgun posting, and rapid change of point of attack vs Hairog's very narrow focus, and careful blanking of inconvenient facts

            It will come down to speed of posting where I think Draco has the edge...
            Do we want to run a pool as to who has the greater staying power?

            Comment


            • Originally posted by broderickwells View Post
              Do we want to run a pool as to who has the greater staying power?
              I've already bet on Hairog... But, if he gets gnarly we can always revisit operation Louisville Slugger...

              Comment


              • Or we could talk about non-existent ELINT flights over the Soviet Union before May, 1946.
                www.wwiii1946.blogspot.com
                http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00...pf_rd_i=507846

                Comment


                • Or we could talk about non-existent ELINT flights over the Soviet Union before May, 1946.
                  www.wwiii1946.blogspot.com
                  http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00...pf_rd_i=507846

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
                    I've already bet on Hairog... But, if he gets gnarly we can always revisit operation Louisville Slugger...
                    Are you proposing Fraxinus americana? Because Leptospermum scoparium makes a better thwack, especially if we want to know which of the two can handle the jandal.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by broderickwells View Post
                      Are you proposing Fraxinus americana? Because Leptospermum scoparium makes a better thwack, especially if we want to know which of the two can handle the jandal.
                      Sorry, I only speak two languages... English and bad English...



                      Musical accompaniment courtesy of Taieb el-Okbi...
                      Last edited by T. A. Gardner; 18 Jan 15, 03:03.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by hairog View Post
                        You have not provided any so far. Please provide the historians or quotes or anything you contend to have.
                        And round we go again...

                        A hint for you of what I have provided before: Cornell; 1946 Soviet army operational plans from the Russian archives

                        As I said earlier:

                        Hairog's very narrow focus, and careful blanking of inconvenient facts

                        Comment


                        • Any others on your "list" that you've never presented because the one you have is irrelevant out of the box...

                          This study attempts to refute the common perception or an overwhelming Soviet conventional threat to Western Europe during the early postwar period by assessing the military capabilities of Stalin's army for launching a successful invasion. The analysis focuses on the period 1947-1948, which coincides with the completion of Soviet demobilization and the beginning of discussions in the West leading to the formation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 1949. It seems now that the Soviet military threat was considerably exaggerated during this period. Indeed, the notion of an overwhelmingly large Soviet army facing only token Western forces was inaccurate. Moreover, it appears that Soviet troops were not capable of executing the kind of invasion feared in the West during the late 1940s, due in part to strictly military considerations, and also to the fact that many of them were engaged in nonmilitary tasks instead of in training for an offensive.
                          I believe we’ve discussed this paper before…

                          Anyway: So your one paper you hinted at from your “list” studies the Red Army after 1946 and not before and after it was demobilized, before my timeline and without the premise that Stalin was planning to attack. It is not a study of the time period in question. There is no mention of the situation in May, 1946 or even before 1948. All his figures on force structure come from 1948 or after. Once again this is not relevant for a scenario in 1946.

                          Further his logic is very shoddy and inconsistent to say the least. Example: he discussed the state of the rail and road network in Russian and Eastern Europe. He uses as his source the same JCS studies that he denigrated throughout the paper. On one hand he tells us how inaccurate the information the JCS was in regards to troop levels and readiness of the Soviets forces and on the other he declares the same studies gospel on the state of the logistics system in Eastern Europe. In addition, his citations are from studies and papers that concern the Soviet forces after 1948. After they had systematically ripped up all the rail lines in Eastern Europe, as reparations, to repair the greater USSR.

                          If Stalin was going to attack in May, 1946 would he have ripped up all rail lines leading up to his combat units?...of course not!

                          Instead of looking at possible misinformation and bad statistics let’s use the method I prefer and I believe is much more accurate. Let’s look at precedence or what has happened before. In other words can an army repeat what it has already done previously given similar circumstances?

                          The author uses the statistics to claim that the Soviets could not logistically support a large scale invasion. This is obviously false since they had just done exactly that when they invaded Germany. In addition, when the famine does become apparent they were able to ship enough grain and food to Poland to feed the entire country within months.

                          Then we have the often ignored fact that these same incompetent Slavs were able to move and supply and army of close to 2 million, using a single track railroad, over 3000 miles from its supply source, and then launched an attack, against opposition, that advanced 500 miles in 10 days. Then of course we have the fact that 6 months earlier the Soviets had moved and supplied 196 division in the Battle of Berlin through this even more damaged transportation system. This along negates his assertions.

                          So his premise that the Soviets could not supply a force of 60 division up to the border of East and West Germany is easily refuted by precedence of what they had been done previously.

                          Now let’s look at the problem of logistics and the transportation network from the front line in Germany to Southern France and even Spain. 80% of all the bridges and roads leading up to the front lines in Germany had been repaired and had just been used to supply 70+ combat divisions of the US/FR/BR armies 6 months earlier going east. The roads were repaired, the trains were running and the trucks, RR engines and rail cars were there to be confiscated and used. There were even plenty of unwilling workers to do the labor of repairing or driving the trains etc.

                          If you can supply 70 combat divisions going east over a logistics network you can certainly supply 60 combat divisions going west after an additional 6 months of unimpeded repair. Then you add in the fact that the Soviets used 30% less supplies per soldier than the typical, Yank, Tommy or Frog combat unit and you have answered the questions at hand.
                          www.wwiii1946.blogspot.com
                          http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00...pf_rd_i=507846

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by hairog View Post
                            I believe we’ve discussed this paper before…
                            Really??

                            For those who are interested, the paper that hairog is now addressing after 5 years of "detailed research" and a few hints is here:

                            http://government.arts.cornell.edu/assets/faculty/docs/evangelista/Stalin's%20Postwar%20Army.pdf

                            This is from 1983 and was not actually the most relevant paper. It does not benefit from information from the Russian archives post 1992 about the actual Soviet deployment and operational plans in 1946. However it does highlight that the Soviet Union demobilised 33 classes of conscripts in 1945.

                            Comment


                            • I like on how page 116 the above paper confirms my earlier assertions that Eastern European countries were unreliable and would have almost certainly risen up in revolt with large resistance movements against the Soviets in the event of a war on the West.
                              It also confirms my assertion that large garrisons of Soviet troops would be necessary to keep this problem under control not to mention having to potentially fight and disarm those nation's organized militaries.

                              That is something dismissed as either irrelevant or having no potential to happen in Hairog's scenario.

                              Comment


                              • Just a quick note.

                                I'm working on a complete review of this paper as it concerns conditions in May 1946.

                                Just to show how certain parties are cherry picking.

                                The citations for the conclusions T.A. mentions are the following.

                                20. JWPC. May 15, 1947, p. 62.
                                21. Brassev's Annual: The Armed Forces Yearbook (london; William Clowes and Sons, 1951), p.265. The JWPC Report, May 15, 1947, p. 36. expresses the same opinion in much the same words.

                                Both written in 1947 after demobilization of the Soviet troops and during the full effects of the oft mentioned famine. Stalin would not have demobilized and the famine was not know or relevant in May 1946.
                                www.wwiii1946.blogspot.com
                                http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00...pf_rd_i=507846

                                Comment

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