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November 8, 1923: Ludendorff tells Hitler-Don't forget US is key

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  • #31
    I also assume in this scenario that the Germans go to a total war footing in 1938 once the war with the Soviets start.

    I also assume that Japan will still attack the Soviets as they in fact did in 1938 (Lake Khasan) and 1939 (Khalkhin Gol). I would assume they would have a good chance at having more success with the USSR fighting Germany adjacent to the USSR heartland. Also, I would assume the Japanese would be more aggressive in 1938 ie they would put more resources with the USSR engaged on two fronts.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Lake_Khasan
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Khalkhin_Gol

    In the West, I think the Germans plan only an "active defense" they will try to refight WW I if attacked, trying to win a war of attrition. They will move into the low countries if necessary (which it probably would be)

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    • #32
      Originally posted by lakechampainer View Post
      I think that if Hitler and the other German leadership had altered their thinking based upon "not fighting the USA no matter what" they might have arrived at a plan to move East and seize some land, but with limited objectives the first year. I think 1938 would have been the time to do this, as the US had non yet begun its great re-armament, most significantly it had not built up army to about two million men yet.
      I don't think you understand the state of the German Army in 1938. They weren't even close to ready. Halder was ready to stage a coup in 1938 because he knew the German army wasn't ready for war with Czechoslovakia let alone Russia.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by AdrianE View Post
        I don't think you understand the state of the German Army in 1938. They weren't even close to ready. Halder was ready to stage a coup in 1938 because he knew the German army wasn't ready for war with Czechoslovakia let alone Russia.
        I am by no means a German Army expert. However, what countries were ready for ground war in 1938? Did the condition of the German Army justify marching into the Rhineland into 1936?

        I start from the assumption that in the event in 1941 the USSR Army performed poorly, mainly because of Stalin's crazy orders and the purge. Also, they had to throw huge resources into the war with Finland, a much smaller country. i see no reason to expect different initial results, given those actual events and the just-ending Purge.

        Was the state of the German Army such that attacking in late June, 1941, with the stated goal of reaching the Urals, a reasonable chance of success existed? At that point the US industrial base was engaged supplying Britain.

        German army strength 1938 and Red Army and info relating to invasion of Poland.

        http://www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/2WWgermanA.htm
        http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtop...113663&start=0
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland
        Last edited by lakechampainer; 24 Aug 11, 11:14.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by lakechampainer View Post
          I think your links prove my point:
          Germany 36 Infantry divisions/600,000 men
          Soviet Union 96 Divisions/1.5million men/16000 tanks and tankettes (plus 5miilion men in the reserves)

          I doubt the German even had 1000 tanks in 1938. Almost all of them would have been PzIs.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by AdrianE View Post
            I think your links prove my point:
            Germany 36 Infantry divisions/600,000 men
            Soviet Union 96 Divisions/1.5million men/16000 tanks and tankettes (plus 5miilion men in the reserves)

            I doubt the German even had 1000 tanks in 1938. Almost all of them would have been PzIs.
            I suppose drawing a very long bow, the Germans did have the Luftwaffe, but at that stage in 1938 the Germans would have copped a smackdown from a fully mobilized Czechoslovakia, let alone from the Soviets.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by AdrianE View Post
              I think your links prove my point:
              Germany 36 Infantry divisions/600,000 men
              Soviet Union 96 Divisions/1.5million men/16000 tanks and tankettes (plus 5miilion men in the reserves)

              I doubt the German even had 1000 tanks in 1938. Almost all of them would have been PzIs.
              But they Had Germans.
              Task Force Regenbogen- Support and Paras

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              • #37
                Originally posted by AdrianE View Post
                I think your links prove my point:
                Germany 36 Infantry divisions/600,000 men
                Soviet Union 96 Divisions/1.5million men/16000 tanks and tankettes (plus 5miilion men in the reserves)

                I doubt the German even had 1000 tanks in 1938. Almost all of them would have been PzIs.
                I understand that. But the figures are at least as lopsided in 1941, and there was ongoing fighting in North Africa, which required not only manpower but required more logistical support per man.

                There was no time that Germany had or could have had a larger army than the USSR. It could not have the economic resources of the USSR.

                In the event, Hitler/Germany chose to attack the UK (and hence the Commonwealth) and France. He caused the US to fight him in all but name.

                In my view, the only way it is at all logical to attack the USSR is if the analysis is made that war is inevitable and the attack must be made at the German's choice and the other power powers, most especially the US, are not engaged. The second link shows populations at the start of the war of about 73 million Germans, 190 million Soviets, 132 million Americans, The UK 48 million, Canada Australia New Zealand 20 million in total, France 41 million, plus many other countries and colonies.

                I
                http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_United_States_Census
                http://www.worldwar-2.net/casualties...ties-index.htm

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                • #38
                  German Relations with Spain 1937-1938 in this scenario

                  Hitler and the Germans could have dealt differently with Franco and the Spanish (and perhaps likewise the Portugeuese.) In the event, Hitler supported Franco as the clear leader of the victorious Fascists/Right. It may have served Hitler's purposes better in this scenario to not give such clear support to Franco as ruler/dictator. Continuing strife in an area not vital to Germany would have "muddied the waters" which could have given the Germans another variable to attempt to manipulate.

                  Perhaps most importantly, a move by the US into Spain, with Latin American Countries, could very well have been in Germany's interest, in the sense that it could work towards the goal of "Germany being more or less allied with the US."

                  Link to wikipedia article on Franco, with excerpts:


                  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Franco

                  Military command

                  From that time until the end of the war, Franco personally guided military operations. After the failed assault on Madrid in November 1936, Franco settled to a piecemeal approach to winning the war, rather than bold maneuvering. As with his decision to relieve the garrison at Toledo, this approach has been subject of some debate; some of his decisions, such as, in June 1938, when he preferred to head for Valencia instead of Catalonia, remain particularly controversial from a military viewpoint. It was however, in Valencia, Castellon and Alicante where the last troops were defeated by Franco.
                  Franco's army was supported by Nazi Germany in the form of the Condor Legion, infamous for the bombing of Guernica on 26 April 1937. These German forces also provided maintenance personnel and trainers, and some Germans and Italians served over the entire war period in Spain. Principal assistance was received from Fascist Italy (Corpo Truppe Volontarie), but the degree of influence of both powers on Franco's direction of the war seems to have been very limited. Nevertheless, the Italian troops, despite not being always effective, were present in most of the large operations in big numbers, while the CTV helped the Nationalist airforce dominate the skies for most of the war. António de Oliveira Salazar's Portugal also openly assisted the Nationalists from the start, contributing some 20,000 troops.
                  It is said that Franco's direction of the Nazi and Fascist forces was limited, particularly in the direction of the Condor Legion, however, he was officially, by default, their supreme commander and they rarely made decisions on their own. For reasons of prestige, it was decided to continue assisting Franco until the end of the war, and Italian and German troops paraded on the day of the final victory in Madrid.[32]
                  [edit] Political command

                  In April 1938, Franco managed to fuse the ideologically incompatible national-syndicalist Falange ("phalanx", a far-right Spanish political party founded by José Antonio Primo de Rivera) and the Carlist monarchist parties under a single-party under his rule, dubbed Falange Española Tradicionalista y de las Juntas de Ofensiva Nacional-Sindicalista (FET y de las JONS), which became the only legal party in 1939. The Falangists' hymn, Cara al Sol, became the semi-national anthem of Franco's not yet established regime.
                  This new political formation appeased the pro-Nazi Falangists while tempering them with the anti-German Carlists. Franco's brother-in-law Ramón Serrano Súñer, who was his main political advisor, was able to turn the various parties under Franco against each other to absorb a series of political confrontations against Franco himself. At a certain moment he even expelled the original leading members of both the Carlists (Manuel Fal Conde) and the Falangists (Manuel Hedilla) to secure Franco's political future. Franco also appeased the Carlists by exploiting the Republicans' anti-clericalism in his propaganda, in particular concerning the "Martyrs of the war". While the loyalist forces presented the war as a struggle to defend the Republic against Fascism, Franco depicted himself as the defender of "Catholic Spain" against "atheist Communism."

                  Link to Wikipedia article on Spanish Civil War

                  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Civil_War

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                  • #39
                    Below is a link to the Wikipedia article on foreign intervention during the Spanish Civil War. I have excerpted the section on US involvement, to show that there was no lack of pro-nationalists in the US.

                    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign...nish_Civil_War

                    United States


                    American veterans displaying the brigade's banner in 2002


                    The U.S. saw Soviet involvement in the 1931 ouster of the Spanish monarchy, though there is little evidence of significant involvement. In 1931, Herbert Hoover was President of the United States. The U.S. was thus hostile to the new Republican government. Tensions escalated when the Manuel Azaña government expropriated the pro-fascist[citation needed] ITT Corporation. When the Civil War erupted after the failed right-wing coup, Secretary of State Cordell Hull moved quickly to ban arms sales to the Spanish government, forcing the Popular Front to turn to the Soviet Union for support. From the outset the Nationalists received important support from some elements of American business. The American-owned Vacuum Oil Company in Tangier, for example, refused to sell to Republican ships and at the outbreak of the war, the Texas Oil Company rerouted oil tankers headed for the republic to the Nationalist controlled port of Tenerife,[62] and supplied gasoline on credit to Franco until the war's end.
                    On 5 August 1936, the United States had made it known that it would follow a policy of non-intervention, but did not announce it officially.[9] This isolationism on the Spanish war would later be identified as disastrous by Under-Secretary of State Sumner Welles.[63] Five days later, the Glenn L. Martin Company enquired whether the government would allow the sale of eight bombers to the Republicans; the response was negative. It also confirmed it would not take part in several mediation attempts, including by the Organization of American States.[9] Roosevelt ruled out US interference with the words '[there should be] no expectation that the United States would ever again send troops or warships or floods of munitions and money to Europe'.[64]
                    On 6 January, the first opportunity after the winter break, both houses of Congress in the United States passed a resolution banning the export of arms to Spain.[65][nb 4] Those in opposition to the bill, including American socialists, communists and many liberals, suggested that the export of arms to Germany and Italy should be halted also under the Neutrality Act of 1935, since foreign intervention constituted a state of war in Spain. Cordell Hull, continued to doubt the extent of German and Italian operations, despite evidence to the contrary.[66] At the same time, the automakers Ford, Studebaker, and General Motors provided a total of 12,000 trucks to the Nationalists. After the war was over, José Maria Doussinague, who was at the time undersecretary at the Spanish Foreign Ministry said, "without American petroleum and American trucks, and American credit, we could never have won the Civil War."[62]

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                    • #40
                      Something out of left field at the time of 1938

                      Germany seeks and alliance with a fellow country ran by a dictator and that is Poland.

                      Germany and Poland become firm allies sharing a common goal of ridding itself of a Communist neighbour, this could have lead to an earlier tripartite pact amongst the Slavic nations, nations such as Roumania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Jugoslavia signing the Anti-Commintern agreement.

                      Hitler has no interest in the west. Would Britain and France give war assurnaces to the Soviets if a groundswell of anti-communist sympathies grows in Eastern Europe, would Chamberlain and Lebrun declare war on half of Europe to bail out the Soviets?

                      Finally in June 1940 the Axis invades Soviet Union and 12 months later Japan launches and all out assault on Eastern Soviet Union. Britain and France have to make a call to go to war against the whole Axis (now including Japan), not only this but how the US responds.

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                      • #41
                        It might work, but for the shrill anti-Slav and revanchist rhetoric spouting from der Fuehrer's lips. But Hitler was a bit of a gambler and he might be able to work a win-win compromise with the Poles (win-win from Hitler's PoV anyway).

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