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Second Gulf War 1990 ( without US and NATO)

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  • Second Gulf War 1990 ( without US and NATO)

    Saddam invades Kuwait like in the OTL and threatens KSA.US and NATO condemn the invasion and offer military aid to the gulf states ( primarily KSA) but do not commit their forces

    What would be the likely outcome ?

    Will KSA and Egypt gather enough support in the arab/gulf states to counter saddam?

    How will Iran react to this ?

    Will Pakistan send more troops to support KSA ?

    How much could the arab gulf states benefit from the arms US and NATO could sell them ?

  • #2
    Originally posted by nastle View Post
    Saddam invades Kuwait like in the OTL and threatens KSA.US and NATO condemn the invasion and offer military aid to the gulf states ( primarily KSA) but do not commit their forces

    What would be the likely outcome ?

    Will KSA and Egypt gather enough support in the arab/gulf states to counter saddam?

    How will Iran react to this ?

    Will Pakistan send more troops to support KSA ?

    How much could the arab gulf states benefit from the arms US and NATO could sell them ?
    I would guess that Sadaam would consolidate his power base and absorb Kuwait as his "19th Province" and leave it at that. In spite of what has been written about the Iraqi's plans to invade Saudi Arabia, I don't believe they would be any more successful against them than they were against Iran during the Iran-Iraq War. They simply didn't have the transport and logistics train necessary that would have made such a major invasion possible.

    I don't see Iran doing anything worth mentioning. They were still recovering from their recent war with Iraq and had no desire for a rematch.
    "Profanity is but a linguistic crutch for illiterate motherbleepers"

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    • #3
      If the Cold War had gone on any longer, something like this might have happened. The US troops in Europe would not have been able to leave.

      But I don't see the US staying out of it entirely. Aircraft, the 82nd and the 24 Div would have made a contribution.

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      • #4
        If NATO and the US offer only Military aid and condemnation, and no forces, then Kuwait is known as the 19th Iraqi province.

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        • #5
          well the saudis are not going to let a rabid dog like saddam ravage their neighborhood.
          Most likely the saudis will turn to egyptians and pakistanis to provide the manpower while KSA and other gulf states will provide the dollars.

          It will be an arms bonanza and lots of opportunities for western pilots to fly latest airplanes as mercenaries.This will bolster the already considerable saudi and egyptian airforces.

          The superpowers will definately put sanctions on iraq, syria will cut its pipelines and the other gulf navies will blockade him in the persian gulf.

          if Iran is wise it will cooperate with the gulf states and remain neutral.

          jordan's stance is problematic but I dont see what support they can give the iraqis apart from diplomatic.

          The majority of the manpower will be like I said egyptians and pakistanis,both have substantial armies and will be more than willing for saudi money to fight for their kingdom.

          Regarding saddam's armies ; their strength is definately OVERRATED
          They did very well against the iranians in 1987-88 because of several factors ;

          1- kuwaiti and saudi money, in 1990 he is bankrupt. His army can hardly sustain prolonged operations

          2-western and soviet weapons, now with the inevitable embargo the usefulness and servicability of his major weapons will suffer.This will be critical esp in a long war of attrition.

          3-Morale of his armies, versus iran it was atleast the struggle against the hated persians.Here the arabs are being forced to fight arabs.Even the sectarian card is not valid since gulf states contain sizable populations of both 12er shias and sunnis.A very real danger of mutiny in his army.

          4-Saudi and Egyptian led coalition will be equipped with some of the most modern weapons unlike the iranians.To put things in perspective, during the operations of 1988 iranian army had less than 500 tanks and fewer than 50 combat aircraft.while Iraq easily outnumbered the iranians 10 to 1 in tanks and aircraft.
          Last edited by nastle; 01 Jul 10, 13:17.

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          • #6
            no USA in KSA to threaten Iraq...

            well, Iraq consolidates Kuwait... angers KSA, gulf states and IRan (perhaps this will get these closer). but Saddam becomes the people's hero (even more so than in reality) of the arab street.

            Iraq keeps beeing the most advanced arab state.

            sooner or later Saddam goes on another agression (Syria, Iran again?) and thus sooner or later he gets slammed!

            piero
            "Freedom cannot exist without discipline, self-discipline, and rights cannot exist without duties. Those who do not observe their duties do not deserve their rights."--Oriana Fallaci

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            • #7
              I'm unsure Iraq could have supported the logisitcs of such a move, but Saddam's best gamble in late 1990 would have been to attempt the capture of the Arabian oil fields on the south side of the Persian Gulf. With a couple army corps planted in that area the poltical/economics of Iraq's position are vastly more complicated.

              In the months preceeding the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait I had been examining exactly that possibility. The ability of the Saudi National Guard to resist anything larger that a tank division was problematic. Neither were the gulf states able to mount more that a token if spirited defense. The constraint we identified was the apparent inability of the Iraqi army to sustain supply to its field armies more than a few hundred kilometers from its established logisitcs base. Perhaps the supply base for a attack into the Arabian pennensula would have been possible in 1991. I dont know. But, by then the Saud regime would have reinforced its military with whatever it could purchase.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by piero1971 View Post
                no USA in KSA to threaten Iraq...

                piero
                I don't get this part. Are you saying that the US had a sizable military presence in Saudi Arabia, and that's why Iraq invaded Kuwait? Or are you saying that since the US has no forces in SA that Iraq will invade (which is what happened anyways)

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                • #9
                  Carl is right.
                  IF, as this thread supposes, there had been no US or NATO involvment possible, for whatever reason, Then Iraq could have gone anywhere in the Gulf that it wanted to.

                  If they had any airborne ability at all, they should have taken Riyadh on day one and caused unimaginable havoc. The Republican Guard itself could have swept all before it and then retired to let the regular forces consolidate.

                  And where to they get the idea that the Iraqis didnt have a logistics establishment? They had a big stockpile of tank transporters, FAUN trucks that were very impressive (I torched a few) and even after the month of air bombardment the front lines were stocked impressively.

                  I'm not sure how the combined Arab world could have stopped them short of Mecca, or even Yemen. And even in Kuwait, the Palestinians came right out on the Iraqi side. That would be bound to make things very complicated.

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                  • #10
                    It would of came down to Jordan and Eygpt to launch a counter offensive not sure back if they had the ability. No I think they could or at least make a decent effort at it.

                    Would Syria joined in.

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                    • #11
                      Jordan was allied with Iraq at the time. The best the West could hope for is neutrality.

                      Egypt could hurt them, but could they get the men and material across the Red Sea in time to do something?

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Exorcist View Post
                        Carl is right.
                        IF, as this thread supposes, there had been no US or NATO involvment possible, for whatever reason, Then Iraq could have gone anywhere in the Gulf that it wanted to.

                        If they had any airborne ability at all, they should have taken Riyadh on day one and caused unimaginable havoc. The Republican Guard itself could have swept all before it and then retired to let the regular forces consolidate.

                        And where to they get the idea that the Iraqis didnt have a logistics establishment? They had a big stockpile of tank transporters, FAUN trucks that were very impressive (I torched a few) and even after the month of air bombardment the front lines were stocked impressively.

                        I'm not sure how the combined Arab world could have stopped them short of Mecca, or even Yemen. And even in Kuwait, the Palestinians came right out on the Iraqi side. That would be bound to make things very complicated.
                        Pakistanis and Egyptians would prove to be the most staunch allies of Saudis.They certainly have the trained manpower to make life very difficult for the iraqis.
                        The Syrians if they get involved will probably open a seperate front, logistically I dont see how they could combine their forces with those in KSA.
                        Iranians are a spent force in 1990, but if the iraqis meet some stiff resistence in KSA they might be tempted to attack the iraqis from the rear.

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                        • #13
                          Another twist is that saddam opens hostilities with israel if egyptians and pakistanis support KSA making the situation even more complicated.Without NATO and US reassurances israel will surely fight back !

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                          • #14
                            Iraq would have no reason to attack Isreal if the US was not part of the coalition, and your scenario has us laying back.

                            Yes, Egypt and Pakistan have big armies, but can they transport them over the water in large numbers?
                            I kinda doubt it.
                            And Iran doing anything at all to help the Kingdom is just as unlikely.

                            But just imagine the panic when Saddam claims all that oil... the game changes instantly.

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                            • #15
                              I'm not seeing how the US could sit there and do nothing with most of the oil in the middle east threatened. Do you really think the US and Europe would let the Arabs defend their own oil?

                              Even if the Cold War is still going thick, the Soviets probably don't want to see Iraq controlling all the oil in the Middle East. Though Iraq probably doesn't have the ability to push to the Red Sea and be able to hold, due to the logistical issues Carl already brought up. Best bet for them is to take the oil fields on the eastern side of the Kingdom and consolidate.
                              Кто там?
                              Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
                              Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

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