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Russo-Japanese War 1992

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  • Russo-Japanese War 1992

    Soviet Union collapses , its armed forces in a state of turmoil

    Japan seizes this opportunity to attack kuril Islands, assuming the war does not go nuclear what is the likely outcome

    japan has a strong airforce 130 F-15J and 72 F-4s, navy has several excellent destroyers and frigates.No bombers though and no strategic submarines

    Russian forces in the far eastern command have ( according to Military balance 1990-91)

    60 Su-27 , 120 Mig-31 , 200 Mig-23
    several modern subamrines, and destroyers/cruisers that outnumber the japanese.Plus about 100 bombers for naval strike missions.

  • #2
    On the one hand, it's impossible, the Japanese themselves would find such an action incomprehensible.

    On the other hand, I don't see how such an operation could have failed, militarily. Unless the Russians used nukes, they would have been over-whelmed. All those ships in Vladivostok would have been little help, most had already been laid up for months with crews more interested in selling what bits they could sell on the balck market than anything else.

    But... what on those islands are worth fighting for ?
    "Why is the Rum gone?"

    -Captain Jack

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    • #3
      Yeah I don't see any reason for this happening, or politically any reason for it. Japan starting a war of aggression in the Pacific, breaking so many treaties they signed to gain land they lost in those same treaties would bring them far more trouble than anything on those islands is worth.
      Кто там?
      Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
      Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

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      • #4
        I can see this happening under a circumstance where the social order of the former USSR had dissolved completely. The Japanese might make such a move as part of a UN mandate to restore order ect... In that case any resistance would be so completely disorganized there would not be much of a war.

        However nearly two decades ago there was a study of war breaking out between China & the US with assorted Allies were China to invade Siberia in response to a complete collapse of government there.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
          I can see this happening under a circumstance where the social order of the former USSR had dissolved completely. The Japanese might make such a move as part of a UN mandate to restore order ect... In that case any resistance would be so completely disorganized there would not be much of a war.
          I hardly think the UN would give that mandate to Japan, as that is beyond the scope of what the JSDF is legally allowed to do. Especially into territory that is disputed, and Russia would still have some sort of veto vote.
          Кто там?
          Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
          Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

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          • #6
            Guys lets talk more about the military aspect of this scenario rather than the political and legal aspects

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            • #7
              Yeah, it is not much of military scenario. As stated if the state of turmoil degraded to a point where Japan would act, coupled with the state of the Russian military at that time, any coordinated defense would be lacking.

              Although the military scenario could get more interesting when the world condemns Japan for an unprovoked act of aggression. Of course Japan would then have to decide if the Kuril Islands really were worth fighting over.

              The negative political and economic ramifications of such an action by far outweigh any possible positives from forcefully pressing their (legally) weak claim to that territory.
              Кто там?
              Это я - Почтальон Печкин!
              Tunis is a Carthigenian city!

              Comment


              • #8
                Playing along.

                The Kuriles would fall, but Japan would be condemned and offered no assistance from her (possibly about-to-be former) allies. Indeed, Japan becomes a pariah. Its already reeling economy takes a further hit following US and European sanctions. Taking heed from the US, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States begin an oil embargo. Only Iran and Libya are willing to sell.

                The invasion rallies the Russian people and military. Personnel who had mustered out quickly rejoin the armed forces. Black market sales stop immediately after a few hastily arranged and very public trials. No expense is spared to bring equipment back to operational status. Russian boomers are refit as quickly as possible and sent under the Pole. Attack boats are sent to isolate the Kuriles and prepare for a blockade of Japan. And with assurances from George Bush (or Bill Clinton, depending on the time frame) that their western borders will be secure (and acquiescing to the blockade, although it will be called a quarantine for legal reasons), Russia feels able to transfer signficant air assets from western Russia.

                Following the buildup, Japan is quickly overwhelmed in the air over the Kuriles and Hokkaido. The Japanese have no US support, and the Russians go after Japan's AWACS right away. If there is any capability to do it, Japanese satellites would also be targetted. Once the AWACs are gone, the Japanese tech edge is minimized. The creme of the Japanese air units are wiped out. Meanwhile, Russian submarines enforce the quarantine. Iranian and Libyan oil shipments are stopped. Japanese industry, already without customers, now grinds to a halt.

                Yeltsin then issues an ultimatum that unless Japan withdraws and pays reparations, industrial facilities in Japan will become targets. It may be a bluff, but its a risk the Japanese can't take. The LDP government falls and the party that has ruled Japan for decades is forever disgraced. Yeltsin becomes a bigger hero. After that, I can't speculate.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Stryker 19K30 View Post
                  Yeah, it is not much of military scenario. As stated if the state of turmoil degraded to a point where Japan would act, coupled with the state of the Russian military at that time, any coordinated defense would be lacking.

                  .
                  defence might be difficult but as mentioned by Ibis, the russians are certainly not lacking in military power in the far east to counter the japanese.
                  It would be interesting to see the duel of some weapon systems like Mig-31 vs F-15, would anyone want to comment on it ?
                  The latter could be tasked with strike and escort missions over russian bases in the far east, while the former will be the primary interceptor.

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                  • #10
                    I think one major and complicating factor (in both the short and long term)
                    hasn't been mentioned, the Chinese. By giving assistance to the Russians they improve their diplomatic and strategic situation in the region, and
                    the Chinese leadership become popular at home by being aggrssively
                    anti-Japanese.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Tuor View Post
                      I think one major and complicating factor (in both the short and long term)
                      hasn't been mentioned, the Chinese.
                      Actually I did early this morning. You must have been in bed?

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                      • #12
                        Plotted this scenario out on the 'Red Dragon Rising' game board. The 1992 OB of the Russians looks very tough on paper, but if the state is in disarray then how operational will those forces be? Even at a fair state of readiness a 'Japanese Suprise Attack' rule has a lot of potiential. That is a big chunk of the Soviet naval forces can be taken out If Japan pulls off another big sneak attack.

                        The down side is the Japanese Ground Self Defense Force had zero expeditionary capability back then. I trained with those guys in the 1980s & while they were really good at some things they were grossly unprepared for crossing the water & fighting on someone else's turf. The JGSDF was trained, organized, and supplied for defeating a small to mid size Soviet invasion. They were flat out incapable of sending effective expeditionary corps much further than Hokkaido.

                        Amoung other things the sort of combined operations needed between the Naval SDF, Air SDF, & Ground SDF were not in the Japanese military repitoire. To send one of their "armies" of a dozen or so US Army size battalions to Kuril Islands or to Vladivostok would require coordination at a level they did not practice or study. So yes the Naval SDF & Air SDF could get in some nasty licks on the Russians, then it would require a extensive ammount of preperation to mount a even half assed invasion by ground forces.

                        A second problem is the Japanese SDF lacked any depth of reserves. Their organized reserves were very small, and there was little in the way of replacement equipment. A few weeks of sustained combat in the air or on land would see a shortage of aircraft, ground weapons, and trained soldiers emerging.

                        The best I can see Japan doing is stunning the Russian air and sea forces with several rapid hammer blows. Then mounting some sort of invasion of Sakhalin/Kuril Islands. If the Russian air and naval forces remain in dissarray then maybe the defenders throw in the towel. But, if the Russians put of a stiff ground defense & their air forces recover Japan is in liable to lose face.
                        Last edited by Carl Schwamberg; 23 Jun 10, 20:57.

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                        • #13
                          Sounds like a Tom Clancy plotline.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by coltshooter1 View Post
                            Sounds like a Tom Clancy plotline.
                            Matbe this is a TC idea being floated for feedback?

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                            • #15
                              Like your ideas Carl, I would be interested if you could talk a little more in detail about what you would except would be the outcome of the air war between JSDAF and soviet far eastern air command

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