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  • Iran Not Iraq

    Just finished Bob Woodward's latest, which is all about Bush's decision to fight Iraq. One of the more interesting criticisms that I've noticed, from both far left and far right politicians, is that the Wrong County was invaded...

    Should have been Iran.

    Here's the case that these politicians make:

    (1) Turns out that Iran is much, much further along the Nuclear- Weapons-Launched-From-Strategic-Missiles route than Iraq has proven to be. As in, the Iranians have probably made enough fissile materials for a bomb or so; and, they might have grown their own rocket industry to the point they could launch nuclear strikes several hundred miles distant.

    (2) Well known for many years; Iran actively trains and funds Hezbollah as well as other Islamist terrorist groups that actively carry out atrocities. The link between al-Qaeda and Iraq does exist, but there is serious debate about whether that was a truly operational relationship or just exploratory.

    (3) Iran appears to have harbored leaders of al-Qaeda and the Taliban within its borders. At the very least, they have allowed (tolerated?) movement by those leaders across its borders; and, they refuse to allow any country access to the terrorist leaders that they are holding. (They have kicked about 500 low-level terrorist grunts out of their country.)

    (4) Iran has been labeled as a prime enemy of America by President Bush. In turn, Iran's government has linked America with Israel - as an enemy.

    (5) America has accused Iran of funding and harboring terrorists currently active in Iraq.

    SO, given all that -- combined with the fact that Iran has both an effective conventional military, and a sizeable elite unit "Revolutionary Guard" - what would 2003 & 2004 be like, if instead of invading Iraq (assume that Saddam gave up and fully cooperated with the UN inspectors), America had blown into Iran?

    Would that even have been possible? Let's also assume that as part of capitulating, Saddam allowed the US military to attack through Iranian ports such as Um Qasr and Basra...
    -Love Protects-

  • #2
    I don't know that I'd call the Revolutionary Guard the elite, they're more the 16 year olds with AKs being tough....
    “To discriminate against a thoroughly upright citizen because he belongs to some particular church, or because, like Abraham Lincoln, he has not avowed his allegiance to any church, is an outrage against that liberty of conscience which is one of the foundations of American life.”

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    • #3
      Iran has always been an issue since '79. We've just never had the political chips to cash in and do something about it... kinda like North Korea. Saddam was our punching bag to use whenever we needed or wanted a sound bite or to remind the world we're still running the show... not so with Iran.

      There's several board games dealing with this, but they're all set in the '80s with a supposed attack by the Soviets to reach the Persian Gulf and a counter-invasion by the US to stop them. Harold Coyle also did a book about it (Bright Star I think).

      I think we'd be up to our eyeballs in finatics and militia in Iran. The level of hate for the governing mullahs is nowhere near the level it was against Saddam... or us. Given that, we would not be met with open arms... more like small arms and anything else people could find to throw, attack, bomb, or otherwise go after us with. Also, there are more religious zealots... the suicide bombings in Israel and Iraq would pale in numbers compared to the irrationality displayed by 'righteous youth defending their Islamic homeland'. Add to that, the complete and utter denial of support by even our staunchest allies, and we truly have found a dragon we cannot slay without great cost... one the American public would never agree to pay. By invading Iran, we truly would turn the Muslim world against us as they are seen as one of the least Western-corrupted societies left... and here we would be trying to remove that society. Not a pretty picture at all.

      So Iran, temporarily, gets away with being the new ME regional power... and hopefully, the moderates can win out over the 'revolutionary guards' in a generation or two.
      If voting could really change things, it would be illegal.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by chrisvalla
        Iran has always been an issue since '79. We've just never had the political chips to cash in and do something about it... kinda like North Korea. Saddam was our punching bag to use whenever we needed or wanted a sound bite or to remind the world we're still running the show... not so with Iran.

        There's several board games dealing with this, but they're all set in the '80s with a supposed attack by the Soviets to reach the Persian Gulf and a counter-invasion by the US to stop them. Harold Coyle also did a book about it (Bright Star I think).

        I think we'd be up to our eyeballs in finatics and militia in Iran. The level of hate for the governing mullahs is nowhere near the level it was against Saddam... or us. Given that, we would not be met with open arms... more like small arms and anything else people could find to throw, attack, bomb, or otherwise go after us with. Also, there are more religious zealots... the suicide bombings in Israel and Iraq would pale in numbers compared to the irrationality displayed by 'righteous youth defending their Islamic homeland'. Add to that, the complete and utter denial of support by even our staunchest allies, and we truly have found a dragon we cannot slay without great cost... one the American public would never agree to pay. By invading Iran, we truly would turn the Muslim world against us as they are seen as one of the least Western-corrupted societies left... and here we would be trying to remove that society. Not a pretty picture at all.

        So Iran, temporarily, gets away with being the new ME regional power... and hopefully, the moderates can win out over the 'revolutionary guards' in a generation or two.

        Although the other Muslim nations don't necessarily love Iran all that much. Don't forget every other muslim nation is Sunni, whereas Iran is Shia (although in most cases their hatred for each other would be overwhelmed by their hatred for us).
        “To discriminate against a thoroughly upright citizen because he belongs to some particular church, or because, like Abraham Lincoln, he has not avowed his allegiance to any church, is an outrage against that liberty of conscience which is one of the foundations of American life.”

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        • #5
          Probibly should take out the whole middle east...
          PvtJohnson

          Hold your ground men, hold your ground!

          Don't be a fool, wrap your tool.

          If your not mad enough to bare nuckel box, your not mad at all.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by PvtJohnson
            Probibly should take out the whole middle east...
            “To discriminate against a thoroughly upright citizen because he belongs to some particular church, or because, like Abraham Lincoln, he has not avowed his allegiance to any church, is an outrage against that liberty of conscience which is one of the foundations of American life.”

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            • #7
              I disagree with Johnson. We have strong ties with Isreal and a few other countries.
              Govenour Of Texas and all southern provinces. Kepper Of The Holy Woodchipper.

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              • #8
                If we had invaded Iran, we’d have thousands more casualties and people would be asking why we didn’t invade Iraq. After all, Saddam has a brutal regime, chemical weapons and a history of aggression. Additionally, he ignored a slew of UN resolutions. Same story, same second-guessing, just a different country.

                Originally posted by Jeremy Scott
                I disagree with Johnson. We have strong ties with Isreal and a few other countries.
                Israel is the only real tie that we have. The other relationships are either for oil or to give us a strategic location in case the **** hits the fan with one of the other nations that we have a "relationship" with.
                Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated... again...

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                • #9
                  Iran would have been a nightmare. With the exception of Afganistan the only route into the country would be through Southern Iraq or an amphibious invasion (most likely in the vacinity of Bandar Abbas/Jask in Hormuz or far east near Char Bahar). Both would have been expensive in terms of logistics and casualities. However, looking at a map and dispositions now the situation is more favorable if the contingency arises.

                  MM

                  Developer of Command Modern Air and Naval Operations
                  WarfareSims LTD.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by MikMyk
                    Iran would have been a nightmare. With the exception of Afganistan the only route into the country would be through Southern Iraq or an amphibious invasion (most likely in the vacinity of Bandar Abbas/Jask in Hormuz or far east near Char Bahar). Both would have been expensive in terms of logistics and casualities. However, looking at a map and dispositions now the situation is more favorable if the contingency arises.
                    MikMyk,
                    I agree with what you say and would add.....create 3 seperate countries from Iraq...

                    1. Northern Iraq - Governed by Kurd majority and supported
                    by NATO "humanitarian" force.
                    2. Central Iraq - Governed by Sunni majority and supported by UN "humanitarian" force.
                    3. Southern Iraq - Governed by Shiite majority and supported by
                    American led Coalition force.

                    this would give the US sufficient manuever areas along the Iran border in close proximity to populated territory, if necessary to occupy.This also includes the Afghan front....uhh..border. I believe we would both be thinking ahead! I agree that invading southern Iran would be a waste....there is a good reason why no one lives there!...it is the butt-hole of the earth! and it would take weeks to get to where the people are. As for offending the arab world,
                    collectively...they would just as soon see us all dead...I say screw um..we have alot of oil and coal and ALL the food on the planet....
                    let them eat sand and give our regards to ALLAH!

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                    • #11
                      I seriously doubt that many of the opponents of "Iraqi Freedom" would have supported invasions of Iran or North Korea.

                      We have been at war with the Jihadists since at least 1979. We just never fully realized it until after 9-11.

                      There are three courses of action:

                      1) Fortress America: Build a wall around the country and tell the rest of the world to go to h___!

                      2) Annihlate Islam: Jihad is part of their creed. The Infidels must convert to Islam or die. If we don't kill them, they'll eventually kill us.

                      3) Change the Islamic world: Reward those regimes that cooperate; remove those that don't. Hunt down and kill the terrorists, wherever they are. We have removed two of the most misbehaving regimes - the Taliban and Sadam. We did it in the order of our capability. Afghanistan was the most do-able, Iraq was next. We must democratize these countries and apply pressure to Iran, Syria and even the Saudis. If we can't succeed with this option we must either build Fortress America or wipe out Islam. We have to make option #3 work; #1 will eventually fail and #2 goes against the very principles that make our country the greatest nation in the history of the world.
                      Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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