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Alternate WW2 Timelines, Japan, Germany, ROC, USSR

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  • Alternate WW2 Timelines, Japan, Germany, ROC, USSR

    1. What if Japan or Germany did not enter the war against the US during WW2? If they remained as totalitarian oligarchies, instead of being defeated by the Allies and then reconstructed as a liberal democracies with massive US economic aid - what would their country, economy, etc look like today?

    2. What if the Chinese Nationalists had defeated the Chinese Communists in the Chinese civil war around 1949 - with the Republic of China surviving as/becoming a democratic, pro-western, pro-capitalist nation that would've started modernizing in the 50's?

    2. What would the Soviet Union become if the Trotsky's faction had defeated Stalin's faction, and the USSR never became the repressive totalitarian nation under Stalin? What would their fate be if they were invaded by Nazi Germany OR what would their fate be after WW2 if we assume they defeated the Nazis similar to the USSR under Stalin?
    Surrender? NutZ!
    -Varro

    Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valleys; look on them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death. -Sun Tzu

  • #2
    Originally posted by Intranetusa View Post
    1. What if Japan or Germany did not enter the war against the US during WW2? If they remained as totalitarian oligarchies, instead of being defeated by the Allies and then reconstructed as a liberal democracies with massive US economic aid - what would their country, economy, etc look like today?

    2. What if the Chinese Nationalists had defeated the Chinese Communists in the Chinese civil war around 1949 - with the Republic of China surviving as/becoming a democratic, pro-western, pro-capitalist nation that would've started modernizing in the 50's?

    2. What would the Soviet Union become if the Trotsky's faction had defeated Stalin's faction, and the USSR never became the repressive totalitarian nation under Stalin? What would their fate be if they were invaded by Nazi Germany OR what would their fate be after WW2 if we assume they defeated the Nazis similar to the USSR under Stalin?
    That's three different threads mon ami. I'll give you my take on the first, though others will disagree with me.

    If the Axis do not declare war on the US, it means Japan has a good supply of oil or then just attacked the Dutch and British in December of 41. Lend Lease will still be at 41 levels, but I do not think Roosevelt could get a DoW out of Congress. In all likelihood, the Ost Front would rage for a long time, like 44 and then Hitler and Stalin would go back to the M-R Pact lines, maybe with the Germans retaining the Baltics. The British could not conduct strategic air warfare on their own and cripple Germany's already shoddy logistic train. The Japanese war effort in China would succeed, but only insofar that China would be puppetted, and a cantankerous puppet nonetheless. The British Empire would collapse after the war as in real life and Britain would become the ward of the US, and the US would be solely responsible for maintaining what was left of the free world against the Axis AND the Soviet Union, though the USSR might make a good unholy ally in keeping Germany in check.

    Germany would be in a lot of trouble under sustained Nazi rule as the Nazis were horrible crony capitalists, and the Nazis would probably completely exterminate all Europe's Jews and the Poles for being Slavic (the Checks and Yugoslavs were too, but not quite in the same way.) Best to hope for is a military coup and quick death of Hitler. Military Junta is usually not the hope of a civilized country, but yeah, it would be far and a way better.

    The USSR would lack the vast tracks of Eastern Europe it got but it would still be dangerous to the Free World, especially if they wanted to export revolution in Nazi Europe or Latin America. Nonetheless the USSR might not do this to have a powerful ally in the US to keep the Axis encirclement from constricting them.

    Japan would fare worse. There would have been no post war industrialization. Japan makes a lot today, in the 30s they had a third of the production of Germans, about 3% of the world's GDP. The military would suck up resources and the Zimbatus would still rule unquestioned in Japan's industrial sector. Japan would be a paper tiger for holding too much without the ability to defend it properly, without an industrial base, which the Generals would see no use in.
    How many Allied tanks it would take to destroy a Maus?
    275. Because that's how many shells there are in the Maus. Then it could probably crush some more until it ran out of gas. - Surfinbird

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    • #3
      1. Read Tooze. Germany was going bankrupt real quick. Without war and plunder there would have been an economic crisis that lead to the overthrow of the Nazis. Germany has to go off the gold standard and drastically devalue their currency to compete economically on the world stage. France and Britian had taken this step. Any Germany that doesn't go to war will also have to do this and will face severe unrest at the time. One possiblity is a coup by the army, sponsored in part by the industrialists in 1940.

      2. As I understand it, even if the nationalists had won they would have been fractured into various cliques. It is unlikely that the kleptocrats would have been turfed for some time. Thus it is unlikely that they be farther ahead economically. The Korean war would have been won outright by the west. Tibet and Mongolia would be independent countries today.

      3. Without Stalin's forced industrialization of the USSR, they might not have had the industry needed to be victorious. However without Stalin's purges the Red army might have been much better in 1941 and stuffed the Germans at the border. Nazi Germany's systemic flaws mean that there is no way they were ever going to be capable of beating the USSR.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by AdrianE View Post
        1. Read Tooze. Germany was going bankrupt real quick. Without war and plunder there would have been an economic crisis that lead to the overthrow of the Nazis. Germany has to go off the gold standard and drastically devalue their currency to compete economically on the world stage. France and Britian had taken this step. Any Germany that doesn't go to war will also have to do this and will face severe unrest at the time. One possiblity is a coup by the army, sponsored in part by the industrialists in 1940.
        2. As I understand it, even if the nationalists had won they would have been fractured into various cliques. It is unlikely that the kleptocrats would have been turfed for some time. Thus it is unlikely that they be farther ahead economically. The Korean war would have been won outright by the west. Tibet and Mongolia would be independent countries today.
        3. Without Stalin's forced industrialization of the USSR, they might not have had the industry needed to be victorious. However without Stalin's purges the Red army might have been much better in 1941 and stuffed the Germans at the border. Nazi Germany's systemic flaws mean that there is no way they were ever going to be capable of beating the USSR.
        1. Yes, that's pretty much what I was getting at. Under their fascist governments, Germany and Japan were both self destructive and going downhill fast. Being defeated and rebuilt by the Allies was a good in the long run.

        2. Tibet would not be independent. After the overthrow of the Qing, both Mongolia and Tibet still fell within ROC territory. Tibet, along with other regions did assert they wanted independence, none of which were accepted by the ROC. The ROC claimed sovereignty over Tibet, which was accepted as legitimate by the UN. The PRC doesn't control Mongolia today either. The ROC would not have been able to prevent Mongolia's rebellion since they were supported by the Soviets?

        3. How would the USSR be different under Trotseky's leadership? Lenin was vehemently opposed to Stalin becoming the leader and had already mended his relationship (for the most part) with Trotseky.

        Not 100% sure, but I think I've read somewhere that Trotseky even wanted a "democratic" state.
        Surrender? NutZ!
        -Varro

        Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valleys; look on them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death. -Sun Tzu

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        • #5
          1. If USA never entered WW2 then Germany wins, if Japan didn't attack USA they probably would have taken out the Aussies, then India and China.

          2. See above, Japan defeats China.

          3. Doubt the USSR would have been as powerful, but maybe I'm wrong about that. I think Germany would have won.

          Overall, Japan comes out with most of the Pacific and East Asia, including India. Germany comes out with Europe to the Urals, Middle East, they might try another BoB after USSR gone.

          British Empire collapses, the British either sign peace with Germany or just get crushed eventually.

          Japan might suffer because of lack of trade with USA, but with Chinese and Indian land they might be ok.
          A wild liberal appears! Conservative uses logical reasoning and empirical evidence! It's super effective! Wild liberal faints.

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          • #6
            About a Trotsky U.S.S.R., or for that matter a Kerensky polity:

            I'm not at all sure, although it's possible, that Stalin's forced
            industrialization was a/the deciding factor in a stronger Soviet
            resistance to Hitler. A more western European development
            model, a more thriving agricultural sector, and not losing the
            enormous human capital caused by Stalin's purges and
            terror might have led to a stronger overall Soviet state by
            the late '30s. After all, such a development was one of the
            fears (the chief?) of Imperial Germany by the early 20th
            Century.

            And, as noted above, without Stalin's military purges you have
            a much stronger, and better concerning morale, military,
            especially if the "Stalin Line" (the Trotsky Line ) isn't
            abandoned for forward defense in 1941.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Destroyer25 View Post
              1. If USA never entered WW2 then Germany wins, if Japan didn't attack USA they probably would have taken out the Aussies, then India and China.
              2. See above, Japan defeats China.
              3. Doubt the USSR would have been as powerful, but maybe I'm wrong about that. I think Germany would have won.
              Overall, Japan comes out with most of the Pacific and East Asia, including India. Germany comes out with Europe to the Urals, Middle East, they might try another BoB after USSR gone.
              British Empire collapses, the British either sign peace with Germany or just get crushed eventually. Japan might suffer because of lack of trade with USA, but with Chinese and Indian land they might be ok.
              What are your thoughts on the Germany/Japan victory in the long run though? I think we've so far agreed they were on the path to self destruction with a failing economy and overly high military expenditures. Do you think Japan and Germany would've eventually fought each other?

              I was asking #2 and #3 in a way that they were meant to be stand alone scenarios, ceteris paribus with the Allies winning WW2 as in actual history.
              Surrender? NutZ!
              -Varro

              Regard your soldiers as your children, and they will follow you into the deepest valleys; look on them as your own beloved sons, and they will stand by you even unto death. -Sun Tzu

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Intranetusa View Post
                What are your thoughts on the Germany/Japan victory in the long run though? I think we've so far agreed they were on the path to self destruction with a failing economy and overly high military expenditures. Do you think Japan and Germany would've eventually fought each other?

                I was asking #2 and #3 in a way that they were meant to be stand alone scenarios, ceteris paribus with the Allies winning WW2 as in actual history.
                Germany didn't have the military strength to occupy the world. They needed Japan, If USA never entered WW2 I suspect the world world look like this.

                Black is area under German-Italian-Other European Axis Power control.

                Red is Area under Japanese control/influence. They probably wouldn't occupy Russia but they'd patrol it. Obviously occupying all of this is rather difficult, Germany and Japan would have to set up puppet states and keep a division or 2 in each state. But its manageable if they sign a peace treaty with England and Canada. If USA ain't in it its over.
                Attached Files
                Last edited by Destroyer25; 11 Mar 10, 12:19.
                A wild liberal appears! Conservative uses logical reasoning and empirical evidence! It's super effective! Wild liberal faints.

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