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Plausible late war AH based on early war changes

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  • Wolery
    replied
    The Germans let it leak through Red Orchastra they are going nuke Moscow to eliminate the Politburo so someone sensible will make peace. In practice, Stalin and co retreat to his dacha, the German planes fly over Moscow and nuke the dacha. With Stalin dead and the USSR in chaos, the Red Army makes peace to fight the NKVD for control. The Germans overplay theiir hand, and help the RA win in only a few weeks, and they threaten to rejoin the war just as the Axis deploy their units westward

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  • Karri
    replied
    Originally posted by Wolery View Post
    Because I want him too. More than that, in this timeline the USSR has bled more, for less and Stalin is of the mind that making a peace will make him look weak, and in his paranoia someone might look to overthrow him. He wants eastern Europe but thinks crushing the fascists totaly will make him unassailable. He will destroy the USSR to make he and he alone rules it.

    Sorry, wrong question. I ment how does Stalin die?

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  • Wolery
    replied
    Originally posted by Destroyer25 View Post
    Jesus Christ, you have seriously fcked up history.
    It wasn't my intent, but I have like six or seven timelines going on at once, wrapping them up in one nice package took some work, but I like what I've done. Plus I figure if I want to write a story, I've got to make it MY OWN. And that's what I have done.

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  • Destroyer25
    replied
    Jesus Christ, you have seriously fcked up history.

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  • Wolery
    replied
    Originally posted by Destroyer25 View Post
    (Just putting this out there, you said Rommel is holding the Suez Canal, which means Britain would have its entire army defending Palestine, there would have been no Invasion of Italy, no experience in naval landings, no D-Day. The situation you have fabricated could have never happened. Its just totally insane.)
    Actually, Britain and the US are not trying to defend the Middle East;, they are trying to take it back from the Germans. By the by of Torch, the entire British Middle East was overrun, and the Allies came in from Morocco and have pushed the Germans completely out of Africa (while taking time to invade Italy, an attempt CRUSHED by the Axis), and so it's the Allies advancing out of Cairo and Rommel using the Suez Canal as a choke point to keep them out of Palestine and going onto Iraq. Here's the map:



    Yes, Italy is much bigger. The brown area is Italy BEFORE World War II began. The Libya area is occupied by the US, and is part of Italy. The Italian military pioneered modern amphibious assault and the military was one of the best in WWI, but Mussolini left it the military to rot as it turned into a giant occupation force. The dark blue is Sweden, in union with a Norway that was not stripped of Greenland and Iceland after the Napoleonic Wars.

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  • Destroyer25
    replied
    Did you say that the Netherlands are neutral and Germany took Antwerp? If so then the Allies would be in a very bad strategic situation. No forward supply base. And I also believe you said that the 3rd army got destroyed. So the Allies are in France and Belgium, they have no fuel, running out of other supplies, they have a gap in their line because of the 3rd armies destruction. So now they are spread thin. They are in a more or less static position do to the lack of fuel.

    All Germany needs to do is break through in several points on the allied line. Forcing them to retreat on foot. Chase them down, take prisoners, etc. From there you can get them to sue for peace. Do a prisoner exchange, all the prisoners in Germany for large amounts of supplies.

    Germany can then shift its full strength against Russia.


    (Just putting this out there, you said Rommel is holding the Suez Canal, which means Britain would have its entire army defending Palestine, there would have been no Invasion of Italy, no experience in naval landings, no D-Day. The situation you have fabricated could have never happened. Its just totally insane.)

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  • Wolery
    replied
    Originally posted by craven View Post
    I am guessing your stopping short of limited nuclear war. Otherwise Germany having nukes about a month or two weeks before the use by US. Considering Russia does not have any using them against them may force them to fall back and sue for peace while the US and UK knowing they have some in the pipe may be able to hold out or negotiate from a stronger position.
    Yes, that is something of the idea. The nukes scare the crap out of everyone, even the US as the Germans have a small set of bombers capable of reaching the US mainland. If it makes any sense, the reason they are not destined to go into nuclear war as they would have with Hitler at the helm, is because the Germans, if not always guilt tripped about Nazism's misdeeds (and this varies person to person), they are pulling themselves out of the moral abyss Hitler was dragging them into. The focus of the story is not about the tactics, or even the politics, but about personal and national redemption. That's why I'm making this a VERY late WWII story instead of saying the Krauts win decisively at Kursk and Stalin appeals for a ceasefire and Europe remains under German boot and Nazi madness. A story like that is a lot more plausible with fewer changes, but doesn't do what I want to do.

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  • craven
    replied
    Originally posted by Wolery View Post
    Hitler is dead at this point. The military overthrew him in Feb. 1945. They act brave but they acted only when it became apparent Hitler made any prospect of peace with the Allies impossible. Now in our world, this is FAR FAR too late. Here, there is enough wiggle room, if I set it up properly. I put myself into the mind of the officers and concluded they will fight a primarily defensive war in the east, and try to drive the Allies back in France as the Russians have ample room for retreat and maneuver, but the Western Allies have much less so. The lead officer wants to kill Stalin, believing the Western Allies cannot make a peace that appears to sell out the Russians, and Stalin will not make that peace when he's been offered eastern Europe in a victory. Therefore the USSR must withdraw FIRST and then the Allies can make peace, and accuse the Soviets of backstabbing them if need be. At least that's how I'd think they'd do it.
    I am guessing your stopping short of limited nuclear war. Otherwise Germany having nukes about a month or two weeks before the use by US. Considering Russia does not have any using them against them may force them to fall back and sue for peace while the US and UK knowing they have some in the pipe may be able to hold out or negotiate from a stronger position.

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  • Wolery
    replied
    Originally posted by craven View Post
    Ok i missed it but is Hitler still alive or was he ever in charge.
    Hitler is dead at this point. The military overthrew him in Feb. 1945. They act brave but they acted only when it became apparent Hitler made any prospect of peace with the Allies impossible. Now in our world, this is FAR FAR too late. Here, there is enough wiggle room, if I set it up properly. I put myself into the mind of the officers and concluded they will fight a primarily defensive war in the east, and try to drive the Allies back in France as the Russians have ample room for retreat and maneuver, but the Western Allies have much less so. The lead officer wants to kill Stalin, believing the Western Allies cannot make a peace that appears to sell out the Russians, and Stalin will not make that peace when he's been offered eastern Europe in a victory. Therefore the USSR must withdraw FIRST and then the Allies can make peace, and accuse the Soviets of backstabbing them if need be. At least that's how I'd think they'd do it.

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  • craven
    replied
    Ok i missed it but is Hitler still alive or was he ever in charge.

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  • Wolery
    replied
    Because I want him too. More than that, in this timeline the USSR has bled more, for less and Stalin is of the mind that making a peace will make him look weak, and in his paranoia someone might look to overthrow him. He wants eastern Europe but thinks crushing the fascists totaly will make him unassailable. He will destroy the USSR to make he and he alone rules it.

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  • Karri
    replied
    So why does Stalin die?

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  • Wolery
    replied
    Mr. Gardner!

    I thank you for your analysis, because it is useful. But only to a point, and I'm not blaming you, it's just my baby needs it to be possible for the Germans to win a late war encounter (but both sides realize that in a fight to thr finish the Germans will lose and lose badly). I'm going to give them whatever they need to win, and I'm willing to change anything to make it happen. In most counterfactuals here, the object is to change one thing and see where others think it will go. Mine is I want this to happen, how do I make it so. In my story the Germans have 500 operational Me-262s, which are a generation better than the Allied Jets, although the Germans have simply opted to manufacture low quality engines instead of more Me-262s. At the start of the story the Germans have invented the afterburner, and decide not to use it because the sonic boom would destroy the craft. A wide variety of rocket assisted early war models flex out the field aircraft. And lest I forget, the Wasserfall rocket program came online mid war, and this is very, very BAD for anything unfriendly in German airspace.

    But as much as the info is useful, I was not asking could the Germans win, that has already been decided. America WILL make a peace, because it will be in their political best interest, nuclear showdown or not. What I asked is would a sensible group of men in the Germans place do what I think they would do? The issue here is not the military situation, for want of a horse I can save the Kingdom or destroy it in a thousand ways, the issue is the POLITICAL maneuverings. My job is not to show you how the Kraut can trounce the Yank or the Ruskie in the field, my job is to show how the Alliance can be broken, and how Germany can avoid destruction with pluck, luck, repentance and enough nukes to level the eastern seaboard. That is provided the Anti-Nazis can hold it together.

    I do like some of the stuff coming through here, but it's important to remember that very little, if any thing is fore-ordained, and as such, anything is possible. I could probably assemble a small library of books written by various historians on how the Japanese could have won against the United States in WWII. I have trouble believing Japan would be anything but meat for a hungry dog, but students of the theater say otherwise. The fact these counterfactuals exist is not just to sell books, but to remind us that most of what we might call inevitable history is the result of happenstance, and we rightly remember Einstein's dictum that imagination is more important than knowledge. This is doubly true for any student of history because unlike the hard sciences, there is no way repeat the crucible of time and space where the moment happens and changes the world. But I do like to be challenged, so don't think I'm trying to discourage discussion.

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  • T. A. Gardner
    replied
    Here's the reality of what Germany in February 1945 would be facing using your scenario:

    The Me 262 is flying to the tune of a couple hundred servicable aircraft at most. Most of the time it is less than 100 air worthy. Why? Engines. The Jumo 004 had a service life of just 5 to 10 hours at most. This means that it needs changing after just a couple of sorties. Nothing in this scenario will change that as the necessary strategic metals to make high temperature engine parts still don't exist for the Germans.

    The Allies meantime are starting to deploy their own jet fighters. The British have the Meteor and Vampire entering quantity service and both are a match for the 262. The US has pushed their production ahead too. They have the P-80 in service and the P-84 and P-86 that are superior to the 262 following shortly.

    The B-29D (aka postwar B-50) is now in service and only a 262 can reliably intercept these. But, because of the previous losses the .50 was replaced with 20mm cannon and the gyroscopic / radar fire control system is more than capable of tracking and sawing a 262 down well before its short ranged slug throwers can take out a B-29.

    Worse, the Germans would have still had the V-1 and 2 programs I assume. Because of the aerial losses these two programs boomerang badly on the Germans. The USAAF decides to launch its own V-1 program as the JB-2. Having the first example flying 60 days after the first German launch the US sets out to produce 5000 per month (this is historical fact the USAAF just cancelled the project as unnecessary... here they don't) and begin firing thousands of V-1's into German territory in short order. Göring now has to explain to Hitler why for every V-1 they fire the Allies send back 10.

    With the V-2 the USAAF presses much more ardently for their MX 774 project to get completed. Convair and Rocketdyne with more funding and urgency produce a working model that has test flown successfully. The US is now about to enter production of their own version of the V-2 only theirs flys twice as far and carries three times the payload.

    The British are about to put the Centrurian in service. The US has the M-26 entering serivce with the M 29 and 32 close on its heels. This new generation of tanks outclasses the German stuff completely.

    At sea, the U-boat campaign is still crushed.

    The US gearing for a longer war has produced an extra 25 or so divisions and is shipping them overseas as well. Since the Allies are on the continent, they simply dig in for a war of attrition. Come August, the Germans get their first taste of nuclear power as the US vaporizes one of their cities; say Hamburg. A week later one of the major Ruhr industrial cities goes up in mushroom cloud.

    On the ground, the news of this is demoralizing and Allied propaganda says the Wehrmacht is getting the next one special delivery...

    The Germans lose.

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  • Wolery
    replied
    Originally posted by the ace View Post
    Errrrrm, after Trafalgar, the RN owned the Med. The chances of a hostile force threatening that just don't hold water.

    Relations between the UK and the united Italy were always cordial, so the Italians wouldn't have the motivation to challenge a naval power that could obliterate them in an afternoon anyway.
    In a fair fight, I would agree. Heartily. However, the bulk of the RN spent the whole war in the Atlantic combating the U-boats. If the RN owned the Med historically, they would have been able to cut off the supply lines to Libya with or without Malta. As it was the lines of supply were never cut until AFTER the Afrika Corps surrendered in Tunisia. In speaking of an Italian and Vichy French presence in the Med, they can't threaten the Allies, BUT such a force would be enough to scare off another invasion attempt at Europe's "soft underbelly." Bluntly, the landing craft were so rare and wanted everywhere, and that was why Allied planners INSISTED on total air superiority at Normandy and went right back to the Pacific when done. At least this is how I am to understand things.

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