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No Communist government in Viet Nam.

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  • No Communist government in Viet Nam.

    Nguyễn Sinh Cung does not buy off on Communist ideology & Veit Nam leaves the French colonial system with a non communist government in the early 1960s. Not much incentive then for the US to get involved in a anticommunist war in SE Asia, but what are the other changes? Were local boundary disputes & ethnic conflicts likely then?

  • #2
    Without Uncle Ho, why would the French let Indochina go? France is still realing form decolonization in Algeria, why give the not-resisting Viets and such go at all?

    Unless some other factor is wheighed in I see a brighter future for all SE Asia, which may or may not be complicated by new tin pot despots who would probably have slowly modernized the area only to be swept up in the late 70s or 80s by the nacent middle classes they helped create to stabilize their rule in the first place. Kinda like S. Korea.
    How many Allied tanks it would take to destroy a Maus?
    275. Because that's how many shells there are in the Maus. Then it could probably crush some more until it ran out of gas. - Surfinbird

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    • #3
      Pol Pot's regime would have spread its tentacles over much of SE Asia and the results may have been almost the same.
      ARRRR! International Talk Like A Pirate Day - September 19th
      IN MARE IN COELO

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Wolery View Post
        Without Uncle Ho, why would the French let Indochina go? France is still realing form decolonization in Algeria, why give the not-resisting Viets and such go at all?
        Lack of communist ideology does not preclude a Vietnamese independance movement. Ireland and India achieved independance without Maoist style communist leadership. The Viet Minh used traditional Vietnamese nationalist sentiment to make a broad appeal and undercut pro French feelings amoung the population. Without communist leadership a Vietnamese independance movement would not have much opposition from the US, hence no financial or military support from the US for a French colonial war there.

        It is possible a Vietnamese independance movement would not gain any traction in the 1940s or 1950s. But, the effects of WWII and the examples of sucessfull independance movements elsewhere would be present.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by jose50 View Post
          Pol Pot's regime would have spread its tentacles over much of SE Asia and the results may have been almost the same.
          A resurgent Khmer empire? The small Cambodian population would need extrordinary circumstances to overcome its larger and better situated neighbors. Its also possible a aggressively communist Cambodia would bring in the US & others as Vietnamese allies. I this case the nationalist aspects of a Khmer vs Viet or Thai war would simplfy the political dynamics over the complications of the civil war aspects of the historical Vietnam wars. The Cambodians would certainly suffer for any miscalculations of their leaders.

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          • #6
            Where's a well placed CIA assasin when you need one? I'd imagine without the so-called "Revolution" in N.V., the Chinese would have to work extra hard and would give the U.S., France etal. a chance to improve things in the region. Savaing many, many American lives and those of millions of civilians.
            In Vino Veritas

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            • #7
              Originally posted by dongar1 View Post
              Where's a well placed CIA assasin when you need one?
              America's CIA. 'Overthrowing Castro for 49 years'

              Originally posted by dongar1 View Post
              ...I'd imagine without the so-called "Revolution" in N.V., the Chinese would have to work extra hard and would give the U.S., France etal. a chance to improve things in the region. Savaing many, many American lives and those of millions of civilians.
              President Johnson would likely have won the 68 primary & had a shot at another full term. What are the odds of Nixon becoming the Republican candidate for the 68 election with no divisive war?

              Actually I'm wondering how the 1964 election might have gone had there been no Vietnamese war in the background?

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              • #8
                I might be misinformed but I though HO did not go communist until the US failed to help him push for independence or something like that.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by craven View Post
                  I might be misinformed but I though HO did not go communist until the US failed to help him push for independence or something like that.
                  Its been thirty years since I studied this, but young Nguyễn took to Marxist ideas while a student & cafe waiter in paris in the 1920s. The anti Japanese movement & organization of 1941-45 was predominatly nationalist in philosophy. Ho Chi Minh was not pushing the Marxism too hard as it was less usefull to the specific situation, tho Mao's ideas of revolutionary agrarian population were usefull. With the French effort to resume colonial administration of Indochina and the sucess of the Chinese Communists Ho found the Marxist/Maoist theory much more usefull. I supose the alignment of the Cathholic and wealthy business class with the French between 1945 & 1949 left Ho's group without a solid base for a non Communist revolutionary movement.

                  Some folk claim Ho & company hoped for US aid in setting up a post 1945 Viet nation. Like conservatives in the US they apparently thought Roosevelt & the Democrats he led to be Red Socialists, Plus the Viet Minh leadership grasped that the US had the cash & the USSR a sponsor with a thinner purse.

                  The trick here is my 1970s study was not directly based on Vietnamese sources. Rather those, such as they were, were filtered through Western scholarship of the 1950s-1970s. I had the impression both the left and right academics were leaving a bit out. Also what was clearly drawn from the Viet Minh leaders seemed written with political agendas rather than historical accuracy as the primary guide.
                  Last edited by Carl Schwamberg; 05 Dec 09, 21:42.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
                    Its been thirty years since I studied this, but young Nguyễn took to Marxist ideas while a student & cafe waiter in paris in the 1920s. The anti Japanese movement & organization of 1941-45 was predominatly nationalist in philosophy. Ho Chi Minh was not pushing the Marxism too hard as it was less usefull to the specific situation, tho Mao's ideas of revolutionary agrarian population were usefull. With the French effort to resume colonial administration of Indochina and the sucess of the Chinese Communists Ho found the Marxist/Maoist theory much more usefull. I supose the alignment of the Cathholic and wealthy business class with the French between 1945 & 1949 left Ho's group without a solid base for a non Communist revolutionary movement.

                    Some folk claim Ho & company hoped for US aid in setting up a post 1945 Viet nation. Like conservatives in the US they apparently thought Roosevelt & the Democrats he led to be Red Socialists, Plus the Viet Minh leadership grasped that the US had the cash & the USSR a sponsor with a thinner purse.

                    The trick here is my 1970s study was not directly based on Vietnamese sources. Rather those, such as they were, were filtered through Western scholarship of the 1950s-1970s. I had the impression both the left and right academics were leaving a bit out. Also what was clearly drawn from the Viet Minh leaders seemed written with political agendas rather than historical accuracy as the primary guide.
                    Thanks Carl for the information. You provided more detail to bare bones that I had learned and what I learned was basically that one sentence you quoated.

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