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  • #46
    I cannot see Britain giving up India or Germany asking for it.

    I can see Germany demanding free access in the Mediterranean and getting it - not much option really.
    Alan Hamilton

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    • #47
      If we assume that the Royal Navy has lost most of its capital ships and the RAF has suffered very heavy losses repulsing Operation Sea Lion. They would be hard pressed to maintain their lines of communication and supply with the Asiatic and Pacific possesions, particularly if they have withdrawn from the Med. The Germans would have suffered a similar level of damage. The Kriegsmarine would have been reduced to U-boats and a much reduced surface fleet, assuming their BBs and CAs had been comitted to the battle. The Luftwaffe, particularly JU-52s, would be fairly depleted too, although not as badly as the RAF. Their parachuthe and air assault divisions along with one or two infantry and/or panzer divisions would be out of action for quite sometime.

      :quest:How quickly would the Luftwaffe be prepared to support Barbarossa?

      :quest:With Holland and France conquered and the Royal Navy rendered ineffective; would Japan be tempted to move on Malaysia / Singapore or force an agreement to occupy bases and have access to raw materials, as they did in Indo-China with Vichy-France?

      :quest:With England out of the war, would the USA have concentrated more, rather than less, on the Pacific?

      :quest:Assuming Japan refrained from attacking the USA or Phillipines, would the Isolationist movement have gained ground, perhaps to the point of the, then isolationist, Republicans gaining enough seats in the '42 elections that they would have forced FDR to opt for "Fortress America" rather than interfering with Japaneese expansion?
      Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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      • #48
        Japan would certainly be in a stronger position to 'demand' European possessions in Asia. I don't think they could get Singapore from Britiain, but maybe some other territory, Borneo or something less 'key' and certainly anything Dutch, mitigating the direct need to go to war with the US. It's possible there could be some treaty guaranteeing UK possession of HK, Singapore, Malaysia, Burma, and Australia in return for 'everything else' and to resume 'normal' trade with Japan. This would be what Japan had wanted all along, only without having to take on the USN knowing America wouldn't stand for Japanese aggression.

        I think eventually Japan is going to want the US off of Wake and Guam and out of the Philippines, but having the Dutch and British possessions in hand might satisfy them for a while. I'm not suggesting the peace would be lasting, just that they'd be 'satisficed' for a few years until they were 'ready' to take on the US in 43-45, maybe later or maybe resume aggression with a weakened Britiain over whatever was left in Anglo hands after the 'first round'... in which case they could expect a US response (unless America did choose the isolationist 'Fortress' route.)

        Japan can only come out a winner of a 'neutered' Britain... until they go after the US and then the 'what ifs' magnify significantly. To get into the war, the US needed to be attacked; if Japan can get more or less what it wants without having to fight (specifically the US), it puts them in a better negotiating position later on when they 'have' to deal with the US.
        If voting could really change things, it would be illegal.

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        • #49
          If the RN & most of the German fleet were both destroyed after a failed invasion attempt against England...

          Would it not be the case that the American public would "wake up", in terms of "Wait a minute -- that's our buddies in England getting clobbered!"

          Rather than the isolationists taking over American politics, I think that a "miniature reaction to Pearl Harbor" would have taken place. Possibly enough political support that Roosevelt could have stepped into the war "for the British" ...

          I do agree that the Atlantic convoys (which at the time were taking a beating) would have taken MORE of a beating. However, given my assumption that America actually jumps into the Atlantic war a bit earlier "to save Britain," the convoy system would have been rehabilitated a year earlier, thus saving England's bacon from the fire...

          The primary problem with the Atlantic convoys of early WW II being: the British (sorry, Doc. S. et al) had the entirely wrong strategy, and the convoys were just being killed. It wasn't until the Americans stepped in (both via Lend-Leasing over 50 old DD's just for convoy escort, but also via their own DD's and starting in 1943 small escort-carriers) that the convoys started being effective.

          While in the Pacific...

          Would the Japanese have been smart enough to take whatever the British threw to them, thus avoiding attacking the USA ?

          Hmmm...Probably not. Since it was the Dutch-controlled oil assets in the S/SW Pacific that the Japanese gov'ment, along with the USA scrap iron, both embargo'd, that caused the Japanese military to do the Pearl Harbor thing.

          And I'm not certain that Winston had the mental ability to give the Japanese anything anyway. Like GW Bush, it's not like he was completely stable (thank God!) when it came to matters of war. Huh: interesting.
          -Love Protects-

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          • #50
            Nuthin' like a crazy cowboy at the helm in a war!

            I'd like to think that a naval battle in the Channel that made Jutland look tame, would rally the American public but the carnage may have turned them off. Who knows? CNN and FNC weren't around then.

            I think you're right when it comes to the Pacific. The Japaneese couldn't afford to leave the Phillipines and Guam alone. Guam was too close to Saipan. A large US force in the Phillipines was too much of a threat to the Indonesia operation.
            Watts Up With That? | The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

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            • #51
              The potential "what ifs" that have been mentioned in the Pacific are very interesting theories, but they all hinge on the RN being wiped out in the Channel. I still feel there is absolutely no way that could have happened. I don't even think the Home Fleet stationed in Scapa Flow could be wiped out by the Kriegsmarine/Luftwaffe, but for arguments sake I'll say it happened.

              It was stated that to wipe out the RN Home Fleet the Kriegmarine would surely be lost as well. Don't you think warships in Gibraltar, the Med, India, SIngapore, etc. would return to defend England. The initial landings might be over, but these forces still have to be resupplied. Southeast England might be occupied, but I'm confident Churchill would still be directing resistance from some mountain stronghold in Wales or Scotland. As long as Churchill lived and had access to the radio waves I cannot believe the English will to resist would crumble. The RN might leave its obligations vulnerable world wide, but there would still be plenty left to control the British home islands.

              If it really got to the point that England was going to collapse I also feel the Roosevelt would have somehow manipulated the American public/congress into the war against Germany.
              Lance W.

              Peace through superior firepower.

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              • #52
                I don't even think the Germans could have landed myself, but I was just going with a few 'gimees' just to get the Germans on British soil and after that. Step 1 itself is a mighty big step.
                If voting could really change things, it would be illegal.

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by prclimber
                  During the battle of britain, the RAF was taking heavy casualties. At one point in time, it was estimated that should the current losses keep up, the entire RAF would be wiped out in less then six weeks, thus leaving Britain open to attack. However, Hitler choose to abandon the assault against the RAF and instead turned his attention to bombing London. What do you think would have happened had Hitler continued to attack the RAF and bomb London after the RAF was defeated? I think it would have only prolonged the war as hitler made some other mistakes later on in the war. However, there still is a chance that without air power, Britain could've been taken. This could've changed the course of the war, but I doubt the British would be taken that easily. I believe that eventually the Americans and Canadians would take Britain, however, it would be an extremely hard, dangerous, and long undertaking. Anyways, what do you think would happen. Or what would've you done.
                  There was maybe a little bit too much emphasis on the omnipotence of airpower.
                  The naval aspects of the B of B have been often neglected.
                  Although the RAF was fighting deadly seriously. They werent in so much stress. this was well testifyed by the airfleet that tried to suprise the brits by flying from norway to bomb north England/Scotland. Goering being so shure the RAF had by then put all their fighters to the south.
                  Well the end result was that some twenty German bomber were shot down without a RAF fighter pilot being killed! After this no more attacks from Norway occured during the b of b.
                  And the sea war. First of all there was no Andy Higgins building custom made sea assault vehicles for the Germans, they were converting rhine barges that were to be towed! Very slow and vulnerable targets. And not so easy to beach either.
                  The Royal Navy would have got there and sunc German shipping. The question is how much?
                  And the Raf which would have pulled more inland, would have returned to the ultimate fights over the channell, protecting the Royal navy, and bomber command sinking the slow barges.
                  Also, the home guard units that people used to laugh about had men who were exempt from the army, plus ww1 vets activated all over the coastline, they would have taken their toll on the fallschirmjägers, and alerted the regular army hq in a second!
                  I have read three books about the battle of britain, len deightons fighter, which paints the picture of the RAF being very close to annihilation.
                  the second a book which gives really nothing new: the battle of britain, by Matthew Parker.
                  And last but not least, an exellent and thoroughly researched book also by the name of, The Battle of Britain. from penguin books. by Richard Hough and Denis Richards.
                  This book is twice as thick as the two I mentioned before, yet you read it faster. The story telling is riveting, and the very well done research breaks some myths. Like the one that the RAF was close to cracking before the Germans changed to london.
                  Certainly this helped alot.
                  But the fact was that the chain home defence system wasnt even dented during the battle and it was this apparatus first and foremost that had the upper hand on the germans.
                  I thoroughly recommend this book to anyone who is seriously intersested in the Battle of Britain.
                  "SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM" - " If you want peace, prepare for war".

                  If acted upon in time, ww2 could have been stopped without a single bullet being fired. - Sir Winston Churchill

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by tsar
                    I don’t think Hitler demanded that the British give up any of their colonies. The Tri-Partite pact wasn’t an alliance so much as an understanding. Japan didn’t feel compelled to declare war on the USSR after Germany invaded in June 1941.
                    Adolf Hitler was very much in favour of striking a peace deal with Britain after the fall of France.
                    He even offered ten German divisions to keep the peace in India for the British!
                    Some members of parliament were tempted, but luckily Churchill stepped to the helm and all talk of a deal was off limits!
                    "SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM" - " If you want peace, prepare for war".

                    If acted upon in time, ww2 could have been stopped without a single bullet being fired. - Sir Winston Churchill

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      "Just how many FULLY equipped and trained divisions were there in Britain in say September 1940? 2 maybe 3?"

                      Actually the number of re-equipped 'leg' infantry divisions in the "invasion corner" numbered sixteen by the time the air battle reached its peak in mid-Septempber (between Sandwich and Brighton). They were short on anti-tank guns (about 50%) and artillery (many older guns) but were all full establishment in manpower (no, they did not have homeguardsmen). Admittedly they would be green but the training was intensive and their task would have been to shoot Germans in wooden assault boats, not maneuvre. As far as tanks went, there were two fully equipped armoured divisions in the GHQ reserve (taking in the first deliveries of the Valentines, if memory serves) as well as some 3 Army Tank Brigades (Matildas, about two Regiments each). Also part of the GHQ Reserve were some 6 "fully mobile" infantry divisions, all at full strength and fully equipped. These were the divisions assigned to counterattack any landings.

                      It is worth noting that the British were out producing the Germans in almost every field by the first two weeks of July. The only hope the Wehrmacht would have had was to train and prepare for a landing in 1941, if the Luftwaffe and Kriegmarine could also do their share. However, by the spring of 1941, the RAF actually outnumbered the Luftwaffe so the opportunity was lost.

                      Germany planned on a short war and had no long term startegy. Just as Hitler was an opportunist politically, he was doubly so as a strategist.
                      Last edited by The Purist; 13 Sep 04, 22:04.
                      The Purist

                      Words ought to be a little wild, for they are the assault of thoughts on the unthinking - John Maynard Keynes.

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                      • #56
                        Originally posted by 17poundr
                        I have read three books about the battle of britain, len deightons fighter, which paints the picture of the RAF being very close to annihilation.
                        the second a book which gives really nothing new: the battle of britain, by Matthew Parker.
                        And last but not least, an exellent and thoroughly researched book also by the name of, The Battle of Britain. from penguin books. by Richard Hough and Denis Richards.
                        This book is twice as thick as the two I mentioned before, yet you read it faster. The story telling is riveting, and the very well done research breaks some myths. Like the one that the RAF was close to cracking before the Germans changed to london.
                        Certainly this helped alot.
                        But the fact was that the chain home defence system wasnt even dented during the battle and it was this apparatus first and foremost that had the upper hand on the germans.
                        I thoroughly recommend this book to anyone who is seriously intersested in the Battle of Britain.
                        I have read two of the three BoB books you mentioned, the Parker book being the one that I haven't read. Personally I think of Len Deighton as an excellent novelist, but a marginal historian. I would agree that the Hough and Denis work is a wonderful rarity in historical books. It is indeed an easy read, very accessable to the novice, while packed full of great details (and photos) for the serious history buff. It is by far the definative work about the battle.
                        Lance W.

                        Peace through superior firepower.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by The Purist
                          "Just how many FULLY equipped and trained divisions were there in Britain in say September 1940? 2 maybe 3?"

                          Actually the number of re-equipped 'leg' infantry divisions in the "invasion corner" numbered sixteen by the time the air battle reached its peak in mid-Septempber (between Sandwich and Brighton). They were short on anti-tank guns (about 50%) and artillery (many older guns) but were all full establishment in manpower (no, they did not have homeguardsmen). Admittedly they would be green but the training was intensive and their task would have been to shoot Germans in wooden assault boats, not maneuvre. As far as tanks went, there were two fully equipped armoured divisions in the GHQ reserve (taking in the first deliveries of the Valentines, if memory serves) as well as some 3 Army Tank Brigades (Matildas, about two Regiments each). Also part of the GHQ Reserve were some 6 "fully mobile" infantry divisions, all at full strength and fully equipped. These were the divisions assigned to counterattack any landings.

                          It is worth noting that the British were out producing the Germans in almost every field by the first two weeks of July. The only hope the Wehrmacht would have had was to train and prepare for a landing in 1941, if the Luftwaffe and Kriegmarine could also do their share. However, by the spring of 1941, the RAF actually outnumbered the Luftwaffe so the opportunity was lost.

                          Germany planned on a short war and had no long term startegy. Just as Hitler was an opportunist politically, he was doubly so as a strategist.
                          My Grandfather was in the Sandwich home guards, (in 41 he was releaced and went to work for the war ministry on developing radio's for jungle enviroments).
                          he said the home guard was a bit of a joke, but they had ww1 vets who would have pulled them into shape immediately if the fly hit the fan!
                          so, in a mini russia cituation Fallschirmjäger would have been involved in hundred firefights with the home guards all over the Kent coast to Brighton...
                          This would have given the red light for the army and navy, and remember. The germans did not have good landing craft.
                          Those rhine barges would have been very cumbersome to unload. Plus their marshalling areas were under attack from Bomber command all the time during the B of B, so the over sea transportation would have been much more slower than we perceive from allied seabourne op's.
                          I think Hitler would have gambled heavily on a massive Fallschirmjäger drop, and hoped to get a beach all ready in german hands.
                          As to the book I referred to, I'm shure there is more to be known, Infact I have my fourth B of B book waiting, I'ts called 'Fighter Boys', I think it is on a very personal level.
                          Please give recommendations on your favourite B of B book, after all it was one of the crucial battles of ww2!
                          And as my father's family comes from Kent, there is a strong feeling for me personally to that battle in particular.
                          My grandad ended up working in Manston airfield for the RAF, after the war, and worked there until retirement.
                          Last edited by 17poundr; 15 Sep 04, 14:56.
                          "SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM" - " If you want peace, prepare for war".

                          If acted upon in time, ww2 could have been stopped without a single bullet being fired. - Sir Winston Churchill

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