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Austro-Prussian War a draw

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  • Austro-Prussian War a draw

    Certainly Prussia had certain advantages in the Austro-Prussian War (better mobilization and use of railroads, etc.) but I think an inconclusive result is possible to speculate so let's do so.

    1) One might well see two strong Central European powers (but not the one dominant Wilhellmine Germany). Several interesting consequences might result, with some being direct effects on France and WWI.

    There is a Protestant dominated, economically dynamic northern German State and a Catholic dominated, more ethnically diverse southern state.
    With Bavaria and other southern states and Austria this could give more impetus to desires by the Austrian-Bavarian-Hungarian dominant elements to quash south Slav feelings, but this would cause even more resentments among the Slavs.

    2) BUT the fact of two strong German dominated states, although not as much as historically so as the one, would give France greater security from attack and a chance for some divide and conquer strategies.

    3) Without the loss of Alsace/Lorraine there is no long simmering grievance against the Germanies, which could lead to aborting the (quite late in historical terms) informal alliance with Great Britain and seeking alliances with one or both Germanies.

    4) This could lead to a French/Austrian alliance against Russia, Serbia and perhaps North Germany---Russia's interest being the south Slavs and Constantinople and North Germany another attempt at one Germany.

    Things get really complicated if a Russian drive to Constantinople leads to British and Anzacs troops landing at, say, Gallipoli to join the Turks in keeping Constantinople out of Russian hands.

    Any thoughts, other scenarios?
    Last edited by Tuor; 16 Oct 09, 15:35.

  • #2
    Hmmmm, I'm not sure. The Habsburg Empire was crumbling come 1866 and their defeat at Sadowa gave impetus to the restructuring into the so-called 'Dual Monarchy'. Without that I would speculate that the empire would disintegrate in the last decade or so of the 19th Century. As for Germany, maybe we wouldn't see a Hohenzollern Reich but the dynamism of the Prussian economy would still dominate the trade confederation. What we might see is a Reich, incorporating the rump of the old Austrian Empire, emerge in the early 1900s. If there's no Franco-Prussian War and the Bonapartist dynasty continues then no unified Italian state will emerge. I would expect this to lead to conflict between Britain and France as they vie for influence in Africa and the Med. But I'm shooting the breeze now.
    Signing out.

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