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No Revolution in 1989

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  • No Revolution in 1989

    This year marks 20 years since the events that are still very controversial in my country so I thought to raise this "what if" question.

    What if there would have been no revolution in Romania in 1989?

    Ceausescu is not toppled and remains in power. His foreign policy makes him aligned with the likes of Syria, Iraq, Iran, North Korea and Yugoslavia. Tension with Hungary grows and the West focuses on it to further destabilize or discredit the regime. Ceausescu continues his WMD program.

    What would happen. Would the regime survive the 1990s? Would there be war the likes of Yugoslavia or Iraq? Would the US be too busy with Iraq's, Iran's and North Korea's WMD programs to handle C's program?

  • #2
    Could Ceaucescu have been toppled by an East European coalition acting with US approval? From what I know of his regime and the film snippets released of his behaviour after his apprehension it seems he was becoming increasingly detached from reality. I'd guess that the Romanian armed forces would eventually have staged a coup at some stage during the early to mid 90s.
    Signing out.

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    • #3
      He might die tragically from cerebral Hemmorage in his sleep one night, allowing a quieter transition to a new government.

      Worst case is political blundering leads to a war with one or more other Balkan nations, like Hungary. On top of the unfortunate events in Yugoslavia that would complicate the NATO/Russian politics in the area.

      Another possiblity is economic reforms are made, under the firm control of the government, similar to what has occured in Cuba.

      So, how are things in Rummania these days from your PoV? When I visted my step daughter in Portugal two years ago I was suprised to find Rummanian immigrants working there.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
        So, how are things in Rummania these days from your PoV? When I visted my step daughter in Portugal two years ago I was suprised to find Rummanian immigrants working there.
        Not good. There is a general consensus that the 20 years that passed have been wasted and the country has been weakened. The few optimists around have been silenced by the economic crisis. I think we're reaching a tipping point.

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        • #5
          Tipping what way? If it is any consolation I've witnessed four or five 'tipping points' or crisis in US history during my 55 years. That along with the pessimists wringing their hands and declaiming about 'lost decades' & imminent disaster. For some folks here events have been bad, or at least they think so. I sit on the board of a local charity organization. We have definitly had to change our methods the past three years to deal with changes in the people coming to us and their circumstances.

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          • #6
            Ceaucescu had already made Romania the least desirable and annoying friend the USSR had in the WP, I dont think that his holding out would have had much effect on the collapse of communism.

            However, the troubles in Yugoslavia were about to start... what involvement would Ceaucescu have tried to have in that little deal, and how catastrophic might that have been?
            "Why is the Rum gone?"

            -Captain Jack

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Imperial View Post
              Not good. There is a general consensus that the 20 years that passed have been wasted and the country has been weakened. The few optimists around have been silenced by the economic crisis. I think we're reaching a tipping point.
              Well, is it perhaps too much to say Romania has needed 20 years of recovery time to start to rebuild. AFAIK, and I could be wrong, there was no Marshall Plan to aid Eastern Europe after the fall of Communism, and capitalism is all about capital aquisition. As they say, the first million is the hardest. And I'm not sure what Romania could seel, cause I thought the oil fields dried up in the Communist era. Sorry to say it but as the world economy feeds on Americans racing to outspend one another, when we finally go broke, you might have a LOT of company.
              How many Allied tanks it would take to destroy a Maus?
              275. Because that's how many shells there are in the Maus. Then it could probably crush some more until it ran out of gas. - Surfinbird

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Imperial View Post
                What if there would have been no revolution in Romania in 1989?
                My guess is Romania would have been like Albania was until Hoxha died. Once Hoxha died, Hoxha's wife and other members of Hoxha's regime were arrested. There seems to be a lot of similarities between Hoxha and Ceausescu.
                Also, what role did the Securitate play in the revolution? I've heard some members of the Securitate were involved in the revolution? Without the Securitate, Ceausescu really couldn't do anything.
                So if there is no revolution, the Securitate would have to become much much stronger and really limit what the people of Romania could and couldn't do, since surrounding countries such as East Germany, Czechoslovakia and Poland were getting rid of Communism. The Securitate would really step up their efforts to make sure the citizens of Romania don't get any ideas to get rid of Communism.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
                  Tipping what way? If it is any consolation I've witnessed four or five 'tipping points' or crisis in US history during my 55 years. That along with the pessimists wringing their hands and declaiming about 'lost decades' & imminent disaster. For some folks here events have been bad, or at least they think so. I sit on the board of a local charity organization. We have definitly had to change our methods the past three years to deal with changes in the people coming to us and their circumstances.
                  This article presents the current mood in this part of Europe:

                  Capitalism's failure to lift living standards, impose the rule of law and tame flourishing corruption and nepotism have given way to fond memories of the times when the jobless rate was zero, food was cheap and social safety was high.

                  Across former communist eastern Europe, disenchantment with democracy is widespread and pollsters say mistrust of the elites who made people citizens of the European Union is staggering.
                  http://www.reuters.com/article/world...091108?sp=true

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                  • #10
                    Thanks for that link. I was able to catch a few radio news programs this week past about the last two decades in Eastern & Central Europe. They presented a couple different opinions on current events in Rumania.

                    "Wollery - AFAIK, and I could be wrong, there was no Marshall Plan to aid Eastern Europe after the fall of Communism,"

                    Nothing really coherent. There were some efforts by the US and Western European governments back in the 1990s, but they never reached the level of a formal well coordinated plan. Much of it was just governments throwing money at each other with to little thought and too much political agenda. Some of the aid programs hit their target and some got decent results. Much else was wasted or led to prosperity where it was not intended.

                    Advice on reorganizing the state controled enterprises and transfering control or ownership was not always the best either.

                    During my life time there has been a exaggerated idea of he size and scope of the Marshall plan. The essential component was the US government guaranting new loans from the US banks for rebuilding a selection of critical European industries & government controled infrastructure items. A vast army of US 'techincal experts' in a formal organization was not very practical in the late 1940s and not a direct part of the Marshal plan.

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                    • #11
                      what was Nicolae's health? how long would he have lived, theorically?
                      and his wife?
                      "Freedom cannot exist without discipline, self-discipline, and rights cannot exist without duties. Those who do not observe their duties do not deserve their rights."--Oriana Fallaci

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by piero1971 View Post
                        what was Nicolae's health? how long would he have lived, theorically?
                        and his wife?
                        My impression is his health was good. it is difficult to predict how well a man ages, but ten or fifteen years of good health is possible.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by piero1971 View Post
                          what was Nicolae's health? how long would he have lived, theorically?
                          and his wife?
                          I think he could have lived for another 10 years. Ion Iliescu (seond from the left in the picture, president 1990-1996 and 2000-2004) is now 80 and doing well, and he wasn't in power for 24 years as C. was:

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                          • #14
                            imperial, great picture! yes, these guys had it good--- I visited the conducator's house in the danube delta once... not bad!

                            hey; I posted a question on ww3 romania on another thread, I wonder what are yor thoughts?
                            "Freedom cannot exist without discipline, self-discipline, and rights cannot exist without duties. Those who do not observe their duties do not deserve their rights."--Oriana Fallaci

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