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  • ShAA
    replied
    26.06.09 The President of the Ukraine Victor Yustchenko claimed "no self-respecting man would join in the Ukrainian army as it is not an honour with its current level of funding". He also emphacised that the level of Ukrainian contract soldiers dropped for the first time in 5 years. According to him, the salary of a contract soldier "is lower than the average provincial wage, starting from Volhynian province and ending with Odessa province".

    http://revisor.od.ua/news/Slugit_v_u...ne_uva-003290/
    Last edited by ShAA; 26 Jun 09, 15:56.

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  • ShAA
    replied
    Originally posted by Shamil View Post
    Still the idea of serving in the Russian Armed Forces averts most of potential Russian conscripts even when there are no large-scale conflicts. People do their best to avoid the service and the Russian ministry of defense comes up with initiatives to make students and University graduates serve in the Armed Forces. Of course, Ukrainian military comes from the Soviet one as well. However, it has been reduced to 149000 and the Ukrainian ministry of defense says that it does not have problems with recruiting conscripts as the numbers of those who do not mind serving satisfy the needs of the reduced Armed Forces in men.
    Those who avoid service are guys from urban areas who have higher ambitions and better career opprotunities in the civilian sphere. In the villages the most promising way to move into a big city is to serve in the army and then to join the police. So there are still plenty of those who would like to serve.

    I do not agree. In 1994 the RF army was bigger than it is now. Most of its weapons were newer. If the RF state had been practically non-existent, the war in Chechnya wouldn't have happened.
    It doesn't matter what kind of weapons it had when information about attacks was sent directly to the Chechens and cease-fires were declared when "Chechen friends" in Moscow wanted their finghting friends to retreat and rearm. And when officers would sell these weapons you've mentioned to the Chechens or sell them attack plans. In this state even the American army wouldn't have coped with this terrorist scum.

    Most of witnesses and observers say that even during the two defences of Grozniy most of Chechen fighters were either undisciplined militiamen with no authority or answering only to orders coming only from their immediate field commander. The set centralized command structure has been non-existant among Chechens opposing the Russian troops during both wars. Chechens never resembled professional fighting force. They have been paramilitary fighting force split between the command of different warlords.
    Oh come on. It was a flexible chain, but they were still consulting with Dudayev and shared information with each other. Their communications were much better than those of the Russian army that used WW2 era phones and sent unencoded radio transmissions.

    Chechens had no access to military weapons under the USSR. You definitely exaggerate. Yes, they kept local traditions and clan system but Soviet Russians and Ukrainians had much higher percentage of military specialists.
    So what? It's the concentration of these specialists that matters. And here's a quote from Stratfor

    The Chechen militancy tried to move operations to neighboring republics such as Dagestan and Ingushetia, but that has not worked, either. Any militants among Russia's large Chechen population centered in Moscow could still launch large attacks, though Moscow has cracked down on everything from dissidence to more serious terrorist threats. Thus, it is pretty dangerous for Chechen militants to operate anywhere in Russia, and the militants who are still alive and not in prison are marketing their skills to jihadists around the world.

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  • Shamil
    replied
    Originally posted by ShAA View Post
    It's hard to post any assessments here beside those related to the Georgian war - after all, real combat is the only way to see how well a fighting is prepared. Still I've spoken to many people who said that the increase in wages and some improvement in living conditions for the soldiers positively affected their morale. Most importantly, the situations when officers sold their weapons to the people that would kill their own men with them will definitely not be repeated. Nuts have been tightened to a considerable degree.
    Still the idea of serving in the Russian Armed Forces averts most of potential Russian conscripts even when there are no large-scale conflicts. People do their best to avoid the service and the Russian ministry of defense comes up with initiatives to make students and University graduates serve in the Armed Forces. Of course, Ukrainian military comes from the Soviet one as well. However, it has been reduced to 149000 and the Ukrainian ministry of defense says that it does not have problems with recruiting conscripts as the numbers of those who do not mind serving satisfy the needs of the reduced Armed Forces in men.


    There can't be anything worse that what happened back then, as the army and the state were practically non-existent. Now is an entirely different situation.
    I do not agree. In 1994 the RF army was bigger than it is now. Most of its weapons were newer. If the RF state had been practically non-existent, the war in Chechnya wouldn't have happened.

    BS. Speaking of officers - do you remember who Dudayev was? Some of the officers who fought in Afghanistan said the Chechens were the best fighters they had ever had. In fact the Russian army was fighting a professional fighting force, with its officers being graduates of Soviet military colleges and soldiers that had done their tours of duty in Afghanistan.
    The fact is that the bulk of Chechen warlords haven't been officers and have not been in the Soviet army combat units. They were amateurs.

    Most of witnesses and observers say that even during the two defences of Grozniy most of Chechen fighters were either undisciplined militiamen with no authority or answering only to orders coming only from their immediate field commander. The set centralized command structure has been non-existant among Chechens opposing the Russian troops during both wars. Chechens never resembled professional fighting force. They have been paramilitary fighting force split between the command of different warlords.

    As for the Chechen boys - you seem to be woefully misinformed about the realities of Soviet life. While in the European part of the country the Soviets were more or less true to their stated social policies, in the Caucasus and Central Asia the real power was in the hands of local clans "coated" with Communist ideology. And the Chechens had quite a free access to weapons and other stuff to keep their, erm, "wonderful tribal peculiarities" alive. So don't even try to compare the Chechens taught to kill since their birth to Ukrainian (or Russian for that matter) urban pansy boys.
    Chechens had no access to military weapons under the USSR. You definitely exaggerate. Yes, they kept local traditions and clan system but Soviet Russians and Ukrainians had much higher percentage of military specialists. In the 1960-1980 the Soviet military tended to stick to ethnic principles in manning its Armed Forces. For instance, the Soviet troops located in the countries of Warsaw pact were considered above average and were usually manned by Russian, Belarusian, Ukrainian, Baltic nationals. The soldiers from the Central Asian and Caucasus republics were kept in the USSR in the ordinary units of average and low significance. The same situation with recruiting diffrent nationals to army officer colleges. Early 1990s conflict between Armenians and Azeris in Karabach was more close to the notion of war between regular armies. The key factor that played against Azeris was almost total absence of Azeri officers in the old Soviet armed forces who could lead the new army of independant Azerbaijan against Armenian separatists.
    Last edited by Shamil; 23 Jun 09, 04:22.

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  • Shamil
    replied
    Originally posted by Janos View Post

    How then, do you think a hypothetical war between Ukraine and Russia might start?
    If the RF needs to find a pretext to start a war, the Kremlin will just organize some terrorist acts against its own Russian Black Sea contingent in Crimea. Moscow will accuse some Ukrainian "fascists" of attacks. The Russian Mass Media has already prepared the appropriate grounds for such development among the inhabitants of the RF. Since Putin's coming into power the RF's Mass Media have never stopped telling them about the sharp rise of fascism/nazism in Ukraine and linked it to the mainstream parties and government. That's why the RF's propaganda can also ascribe terrorist acts against the Russian Black Sea contingent to the official Ukrainian government as conniving at terrorists or being behind terrorists. At the same period Kremlin can create serious interethnic tensions in the whole Crimea between Crimean Tartars who make up about 20% of peninsula's population and local Slavic community. Crimea is the only region of Ukraine where the RF has some fringe but true pro-Moscow organizations including the ones of skin-head/Russain cossack type. If they are instructed and reinforced by Kremlin specialsists they can stage a series of attacks on Tartars plus conduct some assissinations of Tartar leaders to provoke a violent Tartar response and thus create additional pretext for Russian intervention.
    Last edited by Shamil; 23 Jun 09, 03:42.

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  • ShAA
    replied
    Originally posted by Shamil View Post
    On the whole it is not qualitatively better. If you have some data testifying that it beame qualitatively better, please post them.
    It's hard to post any assessments here beside those related to the Georgian war - after all, real combat is the only way to see how well a fighting is prepared. Still I've spoken to many people who said that the increase in wages and some improvement in living conditions for the soldiers positively affected their morale. Most importantly, the situations when officers sold their weapons to the people that would kill their own men with them will definitely not be repeated. Nuts have been tightened to a considerable degree.

    In fact Moscow will have to do its best to gather such contingent and significant part of it may be even worse than the troops invading Chachnya.
    There can't be anything worse that what happened back then, as the army and the state were practically non-existent. Now is an entirely different situation.

    In the early 1990s it passed a few years since the Soviet collpase. Chechens did not grow up with rifles and dagger under the Soviets.
    The Soviets were reluctant in recruiting officers among Chechens and most of Soviet soldiers of Chechen origin were kept out of elite or even average Soviet units, mainly sent to stroybat and other auxillliary units as they were not trusted.
    BS. Speaking of officers - do you remember who Dudayev was? Some of the officers who fought in Afghanistan said the Chechens were the best fighters they had ever had. In fact the Russian army was fighting a professional fighting force, with its officers being graduates of Soviet military colleges and soldiers that had done their tours of duty in Afghanistan. As for the Chechen boys - you seem to be woefully misinformed about the realities of Soviet life. While in the European part of the country the Soviets were more or less true to their stated social policies, in the Caucasus and Central Asia the real power was in the hands of local clans "coated" with Communist ideology. And the Chechens had quite a free access to weapons and other stuff to keep their, erm, "wonderful tribal peculiarities" alive. So don't even try to compare the Chechens taught to kill since their birth to Ukrainian (or Russian for that matter) urban pansy boys.

    Last year the RF troops retreated from Georgia when they were next to its capital. In fact, it was Yeltsin that separated Abkhazia and S. Ossetia from Georgia. Putin just retreated when he was hinted from Washington that the relations between the RF-West may be seriously revised if Moscow does not pull out its troops.
    Have you heard the joke about the Uncatchable Joe?

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  • Shamil
    replied
    Originally posted by ShAA View Post

    Do you really think the Russian army is still in the same shape as in 1994?
    On the whole it is not qualitatively better. If you have some data testifying that it beame qualitatively better, please post them.
    RF's best troops are located in the North Caucases can't be withdrawn from the region due to complicated situation there. The minimal required number for the army invading Ukraine is 200000 under the Russian military standards. It is enormous number for the present-day Russian armed forces. In fact Moscow will have to do its best to gather such contingent and significant part of it may be even worse than the troops invading Chachnya.


    And most importantly, are you serious to compare the Chechens who grow up with rifles and daggers in their hands, and the modern Ukrainians who basically are the same as modern Russians in this respect?

    In the early 1990s it passed a few years since the Soviet collpase. Chechens did not grow up with rifles and dagger under the Soviets.
    The Soviets were reluctant in recruiting officers among Chechens and most of Soviet soldiers of Chechen origin were kept out of elite or even average Soviet units, mainly sent to stroybat and other auxillliary units as they were not trusted.



    Well, this option is something most sane people abandoned when Putin came to power, but it seems like the Ukrainian strategists are still in the Yeltsin's days
    Last year the RF troops retreated from Georgia when they were next to its capital. In fact, it was Yeltsin that separated Abkhazia and S. Ossetia from Georgia. Putin just retreated when he was hinted from Washington that the relations between the RF-West may be seriously revised if Moscow does not pull out its troops.

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  • ShAA
    replied
    Originally posted by Shamil View Post
    Somalians without any centralized state institutions have recently kick the ass of the regular Ethiopian Armed forces. The whole NATO can't cope with Somalian pirates.
    I'm glad it suits you then

    Non-violent protests demanding what?
    Reunification with Russia

    They are not big patriots but they won't give up everything without any resistance. Otherwise they wouldn't have become oligarchs. All their sources of income come from the ship called Ukraine.
    Well, exactly, when this ship starts sinking they won't have much choice.

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  • Shamil
    replied
    Originally posted by ShAA View Post
    In this case Somalia can be called an "extremely dynamic country". It doesn't matter what the cat's colour is, it's got to catch mice - as the Chinese say. The Russian cat does, the Ukrainian one doesn't. That's all about it.
    Somalians without any centralized state institutions have recently kick the ass of the regular Ethiopian Armed forces. The whole NATO can't cope with Somalian pirates.


    I used "democratic" in brackets, and I've already mentioned the need for an ideology. The methods don't have to be exactly the same, but their essense will remain the same - non-violent protests that would press the government into doing something. As for the programmes - it was the elaborate and very well made fuse that set off the bomb. Without fuses the bombs are just useless chunks of metal and chemicals, as you know.

    Non-violent protests demanding what?

    Oh, worry not, the local barons have always been looking out for themselves, and when the ship starts sinking (as described in this hypothetical scenario), these rats will know where to jump.
    [/QUOTE]

    They are not big patriots but they won't give up everything without any resistance. Otherwise they wouldn't have become oligarchs. All their sources of income come from the ship called Ukraine. The only thing they have to do is to act against political rivals that appear in their territory when they are small and weak. Local bureaucratic-oligarch clans have good experienec of coping with rivals by any means and they know that it should be done at early stage. In fact, the RF has nothing to count on in the Eastern Ukraine under your scenario. It will just antogonize modern Eastern Ukrainian establishment and significant parts of local populations against Russia. You know where Russian companies have most of their business in Ukraine? In the Western Ivano-Frankivsk region. In the Eastern regions of Donbas, Lugansk, Kharkiv Russian businessmen possess almost nothing because they were kept out by local strong bureaucratic-oligarch clans.

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  • ShAA
    replied
    Originally posted by Shamil View Post
    They assumed that the Russian Army will wage conventional war planned as blitzkrieg without using nukes and without conducting mobilisation.
    That's the most logical decision.

    The only tactics possible there will be the one employed by Chechens that is the defence of separate towns and cities. Chernigiv and Sumy are Grozniy-size cities plus there are half a dozen of Bamut-size towns that must be taken by Russians in these regions as they on the way of Russian advance to Kyiv. The defence of towns and cities will be the job of Ukrainian aeromobile brigades, troops and volonteers located in close to the areas.
    Do you really think the Russian army is still in the same shape as in 1994? And most importantly, are you serious to compare the Chechens who grow up with rifles and daggers in their hands, and the modern Ukrainians who basically are the same as modern Russians in this respect?

    The hoped outcome is that the RF pulls its troops out of Ukraine giving in the international pressure
    Well, this option is something most sane people abandoned when Putin came to power, but it seems like the Ukrainian strategists are still in the Yeltsin's days

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  • Janos
    replied
    Originally posted by Shamil View Post
    OK. Some time ago I read the discussion about possible Ukrainian-Russian War in one of the Ukrainian military forums. Members discussing this topic assumed that the RF will try to occupy the whole Ukraine and not only the Crimea to avoid protracted conflict with the rest of Ukraine. <remainder snipped>
    Thanks...interesting info!

    How then, do you think a hypothetical war between Ukraine and Russia might start?

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  • Shamil
    replied
    Originally posted by Janos View Post
    Please remember that we are describing a hypothetical situation here...reality is irrrelevent.
    OK. Some time ago I read the discussion about possible Ukrainian-Russian War in one of the Ukrainian military forums. Members discussing this topic assumed that the RF will try to occupy the whole Ukraine and not only the Crimea to avoid protracted conflict with the rest of Ukraine. They assumed that the Russian Army will wage conventional war planned as blitzkrieg without using nukes and without conducting mobilisation. The minimal nember of Russian troops needed if the RF decides to realise this plan is 200000 men. (extremely high figure for modern Russian army considering the necessity to keep troops in other regions)
    For the occupation of the whole Ukraine, the North-Eastern direction for RF's attack seems to be more preferable as there lies the shortest way to Kyiv from Russian border. Thus, the Crimea will be the second-rate direction for Russians and it is quite possible that Ukrainians will manage to contain Russian forces there. The situation in the North-Eastern direction will be much worse. There will be no possibilities for the Ukrainian military to hold the frontline against the RF's invasion army near the border in Chernigiv and Symy regions. The only tactics possible there will be the one employed by Chechens that is the defence of separate towns and cities. Chernigiv and Sumy are Grozniy-size cities plus there are half a dozen of Bamut-size towns that must be taken by Russians in these regions as they on the way of Russian advance to Kyiv. The defence of towns and cities will be the job of Ukrainian aeromobile brigades, troops and volonteers located in close to the areas. Their defence should disrupt the Russian plans for blitzkrieg and will save time for the cocentration of Ukrainian troops from Central and Western Ukraine near Kyiv. If it is accomplished there will be a sort of stalemate with the situation for the Russian army getting worse as it the RF does not have sufficient reserves for taking Kyiv region and Kyiv. It has no reserves for turning to the South and occupy the Eastern Ukraine along the Dniper river and control the territory. The hoped outcome is that the RF pulls its troops out of Ukraine giving in the international pressure

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  • ShAA
    replied
    Originally posted by Shamil View Post
    Ukraine has rather dynamic political life that can't be described as political quagmire. The situation contains risks but gives chances for positive changes in the government and system of power as well. Political quagmire more fits Russian realities where Yeltsin appointed Putin as successor, Putin appointed Medvedev and everything will be the same there in the forseenable future.
    In this case Somalia can be called an "extremely dynamic country". It doesn't matter what the cat's colour is, it's got to catch mice - as the Chinese say. The Russian cat does, the Ukrainian one doesn't. That's all about it.

    You are mistaken if you thinks that grant and sponsorship programmes will help the Kremlin organize some sort of pro-Moscow Orange revolution. First of all, because the RF can't principally offer any idealist motivation to mobilize masses of people in Ukraine or any other country. Secondly, if you introduce the word "democratic", you'll just undermine any support among people with pro-Russian views. Thirdly, the Orange revolution has already happened and the same technologies won't work for the second time. Besides you have a very faint idea of the Orange revolution and the situation in Ukraine if you think it happened because of the US grant and sponsorship programmes.
    I used "democratic" in brackets, and I've already mentioned the need for an ideology. The methods don't have to be exactly the same, but their essense will remain the same - non-violent protests that would press the government into doing something. As for the programmes - it was the elaborate and very well made fuse that set off the bomb. Without fuses the bombs are just useless chunks of metal and chemicals, as you know.

    There are no basis for such development. The Eastern Ukraine is under the heavy influence of the local bureacracy allied with oligrchs. These clans won't tolerate any direct Kremlin political intervention. Any Kremlin's activities aimed at creation of such Kremlin-controlled rival political organizations will be nipped the bud by oligarchs' sports-looking fellows. There won't be any need for Kyiv to intervene.
    Oh, worry not, the local barons have always been looking out for themselves, and when the ship starts sinking (as described in this hypothetical scenario), these rats will know where to jump.

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  • Skoblin
    replied
    Originally posted by ShAA View Post
    The smartest thing for Russia to do would be to clamp down on its corruption, "clean up house" and do well in the forthcoming economic crisis. When the Ukrainian leaders get totally bankrupt (they already are) and this country becomes stuck in a political quagmire (what is already happening), the Russian government should intensify the work of various grant and sponsorship programmes for the Ukraine's eastern provinces, simultaneously preparing "young democratic organisations" that would take the streets in a massive pro-Russian campaign. Given the political weakness of the Ukrainian government, it would be quite probable they would become unable to stop this development politically, and this is when they would probably resort to military means. in this case the Russian army would have to intervene under the pretext of preventing a new genocide.
    I wonder whether it would be feasible for Russia to sponsor a separatist movement in eastern Ukraine and Crimea where significant numbers of ethnic Russians live. Perhaps NATO would then also offer assistance like they did to the Kosovar Albanian separatists in Yugoslavia and force the Ukraine to accept the dismemberment of their country.

    EDIT: I just realized this post should have been made in the science fiction thread.
    Last edited by Skoblin; 22 Jun 09, 11:03.

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  • Janos
    replied
    Originally posted by Shamil View Post
    Ukraine has rather dynamic political life that can't be described as political quagmire. The situation contains risks but gives chances for positive changes in the government and system of power as well. Political quagmire more fits Russian realities where Yeltsin appointed Putin as successor, Putin appointed Medvedev and everything will be the same there in the forseenable future.
    Please remember that we are describing a hypothetical situation here...reality is irrrelevent.

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  • Shamil
    replied
    Originally posted by ShAA View Post
    The smartest thing for Russia to do would be to clamp down on its corruption, "clean up house" and do well in the forthcoming economic crisis. When the Ukrainian leaders get totally bankrupt (they already are) and this country becomes stuck in a political quagmire (what is already happening),
    Ukraine has rather dynamic political life that can't be described as political quagmire. The situation contains risks but gives chances for positive changes in the government and system of power as well. Political quagmire more fits Russian realities where Yeltsin appointed Putin as successor, Putin appointed Medvedev and everything will be the same there in the forseenable future.

    the Russian government should intensify the work of various grant and sponsorship programmes for the Ukraine's eastern provinces, simultaneously preparing "young democratic organisations" that would take the streets in a massive pro-Russian campaign.
    You are mistaken if you thinks that grant and sponsorship programmes will help the Kremlin organize some sort of pro-Moscow Orange revolution. First of all, because the RF can't principally offer any idealist motivation to mobilize masses of people in Ukraine or any other country. Secondly, if you introduce the word "democratic", you'll just undermine any support among people with pro-Russian views. Thirdly, the Orange revolution has already happened and the same technologies won't work for the second time. Besides you have a very faint idea of the Orange revolution and the situation in Ukraine if you think it happened because of the US grant and sponsorship programmes.

    Given the political weakness of the Ukrainian government, it would be quite probable they would become unable to stop this development politically, and this is when they would probably resort to military means. in this case the Russian army would have to intervene under the pretext of preventing a new genocide.

    There are no basis for such development. The Eastern Ukraine is under the heavy influence of the local bureacracy allied with Ukrainian oligarchs. These clans won't tolerate any direct Kremlin political intervention. Any Kremlin's activities aimed at creation of such Kremlin-controlled rival political organizations will be nipped the bud by oligarchs' sports-looking fellows. There won't be any need for Kyiv to intervene.
    Last edited by Shamil; 22 Jun 09, 10:57.

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