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  • Russian Unkrainian War

    I'm righting a short report type paper about a war between russia and the ukraine and I wanted to know if this reason seemed likely to start a war to you guys.

    July 2009 the Ukraine rejects Russia’s proposal to extend the Russian Black Seas Fleet right to anchor in Sevastopol. Russia claims this is an indirect attack to weaken its Naval presence in the Black Sea. The Ukraine claims it only wishes to increase the size of its Navy and foreign trade through Sevastopol for which the docks being taken up by Russian naval vessels are needed. Russia responds by not preparing to leave the port but instead sends two battalions of Naval Infantry to Sevastopol instead. The Ukraine Responds by putting all military forces in the Crimea on high alert.
    Thanks.
    2013 I'm going into West Point if it kills me. 2017 (or 2012 depending on West Point) I'm joining the Airborne if it kills me and it actually might.

  • #2
    There are a lot of Ethnic Russians in the Crimea. Moved there after the war to replace the Crimean Tarters who were deported by Stalin. Theres a lot of tension between them and the Ukranians and the ancestors of the Tarters that returned from exile. I'd throw that into the mix as well.
    "Sometimes its better to light a flamethrower than to curse the darkness" T Pratchett

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Gidia View Post
      I'm righting a short report type paper about a war between russia and the ukraine and I wanted to know if this reason seemed likely to start a war to you guys.
      Thanks.
      I'd expand on it a little:
      Russia asks for the situation you describe. Ukraine says no.
      Russia cuts off oil/natural gas. Ukraine threatens to join NATO and asks for support.
      Russian forces cross the border.

      All of this has happened in pieces in the past few years (except for the invasion) and could concievably lead to fighting.
      Barcsi János ispán vezérőrnagy
      Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2003 & 2006


      "Never pet a burning dog."

      RECOMMENDED WEBSITES:
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      • #4
        The smartest thing for Russia to do would be to clamp down on its corruption, "clean up house" and do well in the forthcoming economic crisis. When the Ukrainian leaders get totally bankrupt (they already are) and this country becomes stuck in a political quagmire (what is already happening), the Russian government should intensify the work of various grant and sponsorship programmes for the Ukraine's eastern provinces, simultaneously preparing "young democratic organisations" that would take the streets in a massive pro-Russian campaign. Given the political weakness of the Ukrainian government, it would be quite probable they would become unable to stop this development politically, and this is when they would probably resort to military means. in this case the Russian army would have to intervene under the pretext of preventing a new genocide.
        www.histours.ru

        Siege of Leningrad battlefield tour

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        • #5
          Originally posted by ShAA View Post
          The smartest thing for Russia to do would be to clamp down on its corruption, "clean up house" and do well in the forthcoming economic crisis. When the Ukrainian leaders get totally bankrupt (they already are) and this country becomes stuck in a political quagmire (what is already happening), the Russian government should intensify the work of various grant and sponsorship programmes for the Ukraine's eastern provinces, simultaneously preparing "young democratic organisations" that would take the streets in a massive pro-Russian campaign. Given the political weakness of the Ukrainian government, it would be quite probable they would become unable to stop this development politically, and this is when they would probably resort to military means. in this case the Russian army would have to intervene under the pretext of preventing a new genocide.
          Maybe a combination of your idea and mine -- I like yours a lot. Perhaps rather than threatening to join NATO, the Ukrainian government could weaken, allowing Russia to move in, as you describe.
          Barcsi János ispán vezérőrnagy
          Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2003 & 2006


          "Never pet a burning dog."

          RECOMMENDED WEBSITES:
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          http://www.sca.org
          http://www.scv.org/
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          • #6
            Originally posted by Janos View Post
            Maybe a combination of your idea and mine -- I like yours a lot. Perhaps rather than threatening to join NATO, the Ukrainian government could weaken, allowing Russia to move in, as you describe.
            Still this would only work in case if Russia manages to overcome corruption, become more prosperous and develops some kind of semblance of an ideology. I still have doubts it is achievable under the present government. The Ukrainian part of this scenario looks more plausible though.
            www.histours.ru

            Siege of Leningrad battlefield tour

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            • #7
              Originally posted by ShAA View Post
              Still this would only work in case if Russia manages to overcome corruption, become more prosperous and develops some kind of semblance of an ideology. I still have doubts it is achievable under the present government. The Ukrainian part of this scenario looks more plausible though.
              Yeah, but's it a made-up scenario, so anything is possible.
              Barcsi János ispán vezérőrnagy
              Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2003 & 2006


              "Never pet a burning dog."

              RECOMMENDED WEBSITES:
              http://www.mormon.org
              http://www.sca.org
              http://www.scv.org/
              http://www.scouting.org/

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              • #8
                Originally posted by ShAA View Post
                The smartest thing for Russia to do would be to clamp down on its corruption, "clean up house" and do well in the forthcoming economic crisis. When the Ukrainian leaders get totally bankrupt (they already are) and this country becomes stuck in a political quagmire (what is already happening),
                Ukraine has rather dynamic political life that can't be described as political quagmire. The situation contains risks but gives chances for positive changes in the government and system of power as well. Political quagmire more fits Russian realities where Yeltsin appointed Putin as successor, Putin appointed Medvedev and everything will be the same there in the forseenable future.

                the Russian government should intensify the work of various grant and sponsorship programmes for the Ukraine's eastern provinces, simultaneously preparing "young democratic organisations" that would take the streets in a massive pro-Russian campaign.
                You are mistaken if you thinks that grant and sponsorship programmes will help the Kremlin organize some sort of pro-Moscow Orange revolution. First of all, because the RF can't principally offer any idealist motivation to mobilize masses of people in Ukraine or any other country. Secondly, if you introduce the word "democratic", you'll just undermine any support among people with pro-Russian views. Thirdly, the Orange revolution has already happened and the same technologies won't work for the second time. Besides you have a very faint idea of the Orange revolution and the situation in Ukraine if you think it happened because of the US grant and sponsorship programmes.

                Given the political weakness of the Ukrainian government, it would be quite probable they would become unable to stop this development politically, and this is when they would probably resort to military means. in this case the Russian army would have to intervene under the pretext of preventing a new genocide.

                There are no basis for such development. The Eastern Ukraine is under the heavy influence of the local bureacracy allied with Ukrainian oligarchs. These clans won't tolerate any direct Kremlin political intervention. Any Kremlin's activities aimed at creation of such Kremlin-controlled rival political organizations will be nipped the bud by oligarchs' sports-looking fellows. There won't be any need for Kyiv to intervene.
                Last edited by Shamil; 22 Jun 09, 10:57.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Shamil View Post
                  Ukraine has rather dynamic political life that can't be described as political quagmire. The situation contains risks but gives chances for positive changes in the government and system of power as well. Political quagmire more fits Russian realities where Yeltsin appointed Putin as successor, Putin appointed Medvedev and everything will be the same there in the forseenable future.
                  Please remember that we are describing a hypothetical situation here...reality is irrrelevent.
                  Barcsi János ispán vezérőrnagy
                  Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2003 & 2006


                  "Never pet a burning dog."

                  RECOMMENDED WEBSITES:
                  http://www.mormon.org
                  http://www.sca.org
                  http://www.scv.org/
                  http://www.scouting.org/

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ShAA View Post
                    The smartest thing for Russia to do would be to clamp down on its corruption, "clean up house" and do well in the forthcoming economic crisis. When the Ukrainian leaders get totally bankrupt (they already are) and this country becomes stuck in a political quagmire (what is already happening), the Russian government should intensify the work of various grant and sponsorship programmes for the Ukraine's eastern provinces, simultaneously preparing "young democratic organisations" that would take the streets in a massive pro-Russian campaign. Given the political weakness of the Ukrainian government, it would be quite probable they would become unable to stop this development politically, and this is when they would probably resort to military means. in this case the Russian army would have to intervene under the pretext of preventing a new genocide.
                    I wonder whether it would be feasible for Russia to sponsor a separatist movement in eastern Ukraine and Crimea where significant numbers of ethnic Russians live. Perhaps NATO would then also offer assistance like they did to the Kosovar Albanian separatists in Yugoslavia and force the Ukraine to accept the dismemberment of their country.

                    EDIT: I just realized this post should have been made in the science fiction thread.
                    Last edited by Skoblin; 22 Jun 09, 11:03.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Shamil View Post
                      Ukraine has rather dynamic political life that can't be described as political quagmire. The situation contains risks but gives chances for positive changes in the government and system of power as well. Political quagmire more fits Russian realities where Yeltsin appointed Putin as successor, Putin appointed Medvedev and everything will be the same there in the forseenable future.
                      In this case Somalia can be called an "extremely dynamic country". It doesn't matter what the cat's colour is, it's got to catch mice - as the Chinese say. The Russian cat does, the Ukrainian one doesn't. That's all about it.

                      You are mistaken if you thinks that grant and sponsorship programmes will help the Kremlin organize some sort of pro-Moscow Orange revolution. First of all, because the RF can't principally offer any idealist motivation to mobilize masses of people in Ukraine or any other country. Secondly, if you introduce the word "democratic", you'll just undermine any support among people with pro-Russian views. Thirdly, the Orange revolution has already happened and the same technologies won't work for the second time. Besides you have a very faint idea of the Orange revolution and the situation in Ukraine if you think it happened because of the US grant and sponsorship programmes.
                      I used "democratic" in brackets, and I've already mentioned the need for an ideology. The methods don't have to be exactly the same, but their essense will remain the same - non-violent protests that would press the government into doing something. As for the programmes - it was the elaborate and very well made fuse that set off the bomb. Without fuses the bombs are just useless chunks of metal and chemicals, as you know.

                      There are no basis for such development. The Eastern Ukraine is under the heavy influence of the local bureacracy allied with oligrchs. These clans won't tolerate any direct Kremlin political intervention. Any Kremlin's activities aimed at creation of such Kremlin-controlled rival political organizations will be nipped the bud by oligarchs' sports-looking fellows. There won't be any need for Kyiv to intervene.
                      Oh, worry not, the local barons have always been looking out for themselves, and when the ship starts sinking (as described in this hypothetical scenario), these rats will know where to jump.
                      www.histours.ru

                      Siege of Leningrad battlefield tour

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Janos View Post
                        Please remember that we are describing a hypothetical situation here...reality is irrrelevent.
                        OK. Some time ago I read the discussion about possible Ukrainian-Russian War in one of the Ukrainian military forums. Members discussing this topic assumed that the RF will try to occupy the whole Ukraine and not only the Crimea to avoid protracted conflict with the rest of Ukraine. They assumed that the Russian Army will wage conventional war planned as blitzkrieg without using nukes and without conducting mobilisation. The minimal nember of Russian troops needed if the RF decides to realise this plan is 200000 men. (extremely high figure for modern Russian army considering the necessity to keep troops in other regions)
                        For the occupation of the whole Ukraine, the North-Eastern direction for RF's attack seems to be more preferable as there lies the shortest way to Kyiv from Russian border. Thus, the Crimea will be the second-rate direction for Russians and it is quite possible that Ukrainians will manage to contain Russian forces there. The situation in the North-Eastern direction will be much worse. There will be no possibilities for the Ukrainian military to hold the frontline against the RF's invasion army near the border in Chernigiv and Symy regions. The only tactics possible there will be the one employed by Chechens that is the defence of separate towns and cities. Chernigiv and Sumy are Grozniy-size cities plus there are half a dozen of Bamut-size towns that must be taken by Russians in these regions as they on the way of Russian advance to Kyiv. The defence of towns and cities will be the job of Ukrainian aeromobile brigades, troops and volonteers located in close to the areas. Their defence should disrupt the Russian plans for blitzkrieg and will save time for the cocentration of Ukrainian troops from Central and Western Ukraine near Kyiv. If it is accomplished there will be a sort of stalemate with the situation for the Russian army getting worse as it the RF does not have sufficient reserves for taking Kyiv region and Kyiv. It has no reserves for turning to the South and occupy the Eastern Ukraine along the Dniper river and control the territory. The hoped outcome is that the RF pulls its troops out of Ukraine giving in the international pressure

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Shamil View Post
                          OK. Some time ago I read the discussion about possible Ukrainian-Russian War in one of the Ukrainian military forums. Members discussing this topic assumed that the RF will try to occupy the whole Ukraine and not only the Crimea to avoid protracted conflict with the rest of Ukraine. <remainder snipped>
                          Thanks...interesting info!

                          How then, do you think a hypothetical war between Ukraine and Russia might start?
                          Barcsi János ispán vezérőrnagy
                          Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2003 & 2006


                          "Never pet a burning dog."

                          RECOMMENDED WEBSITES:
                          http://www.mormon.org
                          http://www.sca.org
                          http://www.scv.org/
                          http://www.scouting.org/

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Shamil View Post
                            They assumed that the Russian Army will wage conventional war planned as blitzkrieg without using nukes and without conducting mobilisation.
                            That's the most logical decision.

                            The only tactics possible there will be the one employed by Chechens that is the defence of separate towns and cities. Chernigiv and Sumy are Grozniy-size cities plus there are half a dozen of Bamut-size towns that must be taken by Russians in these regions as they on the way of Russian advance to Kyiv. The defence of towns and cities will be the job of Ukrainian aeromobile brigades, troops and volonteers located in close to the areas.
                            Do you really think the Russian army is still in the same shape as in 1994? And most importantly, are you serious to compare the Chechens who grow up with rifles and daggers in their hands, and the modern Ukrainians who basically are the same as modern Russians in this respect?

                            The hoped outcome is that the RF pulls its troops out of Ukraine giving in the international pressure
                            Well, this option is something most sane people abandoned when Putin came to power, but it seems like the Ukrainian strategists are still in the Yeltsin's days
                            www.histours.ru

                            Siege of Leningrad battlefield tour

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by ShAA View Post
                              In this case Somalia can be called an "extremely dynamic country". It doesn't matter what the cat's colour is, it's got to catch mice - as the Chinese say. The Russian cat does, the Ukrainian one doesn't. That's all about it.
                              Somalians without any centralized state institutions have recently kick the ass of the regular Ethiopian Armed forces. The whole NATO can't cope with Somalian pirates.


                              I used "democratic" in brackets, and I've already mentioned the need for an ideology. The methods don't have to be exactly the same, but their essense will remain the same - non-violent protests that would press the government into doing something. As for the programmes - it was the elaborate and very well made fuse that set off the bomb. Without fuses the bombs are just useless chunks of metal and chemicals, as you know.

                              Non-violent protests demanding what?

                              Oh, worry not, the local barons have always been looking out for themselves, and when the ship starts sinking (as described in this hypothetical scenario), these rats will know where to jump.
                              [/QUOTE]

                              They are not big patriots but they won't give up everything without any resistance. Otherwise they wouldn't have become oligarchs. All their sources of income come from the ship called Ukraine. The only thing they have to do is to act against political rivals that appear in their territory when they are small and weak. Local bureaucratic-oligarch clans have good experienec of coping with rivals by any means and they know that it should be done at early stage. In fact, the RF has nothing to count on in the Eastern Ukraine under your scenario. It will just antogonize modern Eastern Ukrainian establishment and significant parts of local populations against Russia. You know where Russian companies have most of their business in Ukraine? In the Western Ivano-Frankivsk region. In the Eastern regions of Donbas, Lugansk, Kharkiv Russian businessmen possess almost nothing because they were kept out by local strong bureaucratic-oligarch clans.

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