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  • US never enters WWII

    what if the Japanese had very wisely not attacked Pearl or any other American base thus not giving FDR the justification of going to war? Also, there is no Lend-Lease program whatsoever to supply the British and the USSR.

    I know that the Soviets inflicted the vast majority of losses on the Wermacht, but without the Lend-Lease program to supply the Reds with everything they needed, they wouldn't have been able to push the Germans back nearly as fast as they did.

    And on top of that, there were alot of elite divisions diverted to the western front in anticipation of the Allied invasion, which would not have been possible without the US. So now all of said divisions and the supplies and munitions to go with them as well as the German units deployed in Italy for the American invasion there, could have been thrown at the Soviets. Quite an increase in manpower.

    I believe that under those circumstances Germany would have eventually defeated the Soviet Union.
    Keep working, millions on welfare depend on YOU.

  • #2
    This has been covered... but I am not sure if there has been a thread that DIRECTLY addressed this issue.

    Stand by for endless posts about how logistics is the only factor in any war, how useless US help was, and all the rest.

    NO lend-lease, at all? Well, no USS Ohio making it to Malta, and no way to stop Rommel from going all the way to the Suez. German and Italian Divisions freed up for Service in Russia. The Japanese were going to attack somebody, so off they go to Siberia... and by 1943 it's almost a different world!
    "Why is the Rum gone?"

    -Captain Jack

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    • #3
      Without US assistance

      Britain would likely sue for peace with the U boats essentially forming a noose around the island and Rommell and italians pressuring the Brits in N.Africa.

      Japan without America to worry about will make great inroads into India and may even consider invsion of siberia.

      With Britain out of the war prospects for Germany improve in the east.
      Turkey and Spain may be tempted to join the Axis.

      With support from Japan Spain and Turkey along with Italy USSR will get isolated and it may be a more evenly matched conflict betn USSR and the Axis which would likely create enough pressure on the USSR to sue for peace maybe even an overthrow of Stalin or a less likely scenario of complete defeat of the USSR.

      With no bombing raids over Germany its industrial production and morale are far better and this by itself is a big help.
      Last edited by Slim; 29 May 09, 00:31.

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      • #4
        Once FDR placed an embargo on oil and scrape iron going to Japan. Japan had little choise. and invasion of Siberia wasn't an opition as long as Japan lacked the resouces. They had to go south for the oil of the Dutch East India. Could they gamble that the US would not attack? Then they need to secure the PI's. Would the US have gone to war IF only the PI's were attacked?
        "Ask not what your country can do for you"

        Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

        youíre entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Slim View Post
          Without US assistance

          Britain would likely sue for peace with the U boats essentially forming a noose around the island and Rommell and italians pressuring the Brits in N.Africa.

          Japan without America to worry about will make great inroads into India and may even consider invsion of siberia.

          With Britain out of the war prospects for Germany improve in the east.
          Turkey and Spain may be tempted to join the Axis.

          With support from Japan Spain and Turkey along with Italy USSR will get isolated and it may be a more evenly matched conflict betn USSR and the Axis which would likely create enough pressure on the USSR to sue for peace maybe even an overthrow of Stalin or a less likely scenario of complete defeat of the USSR.

          With no bombing raids over Germany its industrial production and morale are far better and this by itself is a big help.
          What was it? Something like 75% of the Luftwaffe was tied down in air defense rolls. Turned loose for the East Front would surely have had major impact.
          "Ask not what your country can do for you"

          Left wing, Right Wing same bird that they are killing.

          youíre entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

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          • #6
            And where are all these U-Boats coming from ?

            And why should not the RN keep supplies coming through ?

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            • #7
              Originally posted by peteratwar View Post
              And where are all these U-Boats coming from ?

              And why should not the RN keep supplies coming through ?


              You have to remember the US gave about 50 odd destroyers and much more as land lease to Britain and they were crucial in keeping Britains sea lanes open. Without that assistance it is not entirely unlikely that the U-boats may have choked Britain to the point of submission.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Half Pint View Post
                What was it? Something like 75% of the Luftwaffe was tied down in air defense rolls. Turned loose for the East Front would surely have had major impact.
                Depends on exactly which year. Up through the end of 1943 the Luftwaffe kept between 2000 & 3000 combat aircraft operational in the East in any particular month. A similar number were distributed across the West & the Med.

                Norway...200 - 300

                NW Europe...250...350

                Mediterainian...Balkans...400 - 500+

                Germany...500 - 800

                A considerable number of nonoperational combat aircraft were present on all fronts, and there were many training aircraft in Germany & non combat types on all fronts. There area number of good sources that give excellent descriptions of the numbers on each front over the course of the war. Albert Prices 'Luftwaffe' & John Ellis's 'Brute Force' are two on my shelf.
                Last edited by Carl Schwamberg; 30 May 09, 07:52.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by peteratwar View Post
                  And where are all these U-Boats coming from ?

                  And why should not the RN keep supplies coming through ?
                  In 1940 and í41 the Germans were sinking merchant ships faster then they could be built. Even with Britainís large merchant fleet that is a recipe for disaster.
                  Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedy. -- Ernest Benn

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by tsar View Post
                    In 1940 and í41 the Germans were sinking merchant ships faster then they could be built. Even with Britainís large merchant fleet that is a recipe for disaster.
                    If they could have kept that up for another two years then maybe. However, at the end of 1941 the British merchant fleet was actually bigger than it had been at the start of the war! (Ellis - 'Brute Force' - p.159)
                    Signing out.

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                    • #11
                      The part where more ships were being sunk than being built was 42-43, the Happy Time soon followed by the Bloody Winter.

                      Also- if the US is staying out, that means a radical shift in policy, which would inclide no embargo of Japan.

                      No Embargo, no need for Japan to attack to the south... or an exclusively anti-British campaign. The attack on Siberia is now more feasible, and at the same time the Indian Ocean can be turned into a Japanese lake.
                      "Why is the Rum gone?"

                      -Captain Jack

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Exorcist View Post
                        The part where more ships were being sunk than being built was 42-43, the Happy Time soon followed by the Bloody Winter.

                        Also- if the US is staying out, that means a radical shift in policy, which would inclide no embargo of Japan.

                        No Embargo, no need for Japan to attack to the south... or an exclusively anti-British campaign. The attack on Siberia is now more feasible, and at the same time the Indian Ocean can be turned into a Japanese lake.

                        Okay, I knew that there was a period when the U-boats were winning. Without the U.S. entry there would have been no Liberty ships. And how many of the escort carriers that closed the gap in the Atlantic were built in U.S. shipyards? Would Britain have been able to turn the battle of the Atlantic around without help from the U.S?
                        Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedy. -- Ernest Benn

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Exorcist View Post
                          The part where more ships were being sunk than being built was 42-43, the Happy Time soon followed by the Bloody Winter.
                          Not according to what I've got. It's 40-41 where losses overmatch building by some margin. In '42, as US shipbuiding starts to kick in, losses still exceed building but not by much. The losses are much higher than previous years but that is down to poor US practise along its own coastline. In '43 the Germans are beaten meaning losses declined although the vast increase in building that year would have coped no matter what.
                          Signing out.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by tsar View Post
                            Okay, I knew that there was a period when the U-boats were winning. Without the U.S. entry there would have been no Liberty ships. And how many of the escort carriers that closed the gap in the Atlantic were built in U.S. shipyards? Would Britain have been able to turn the battle of the Atlantic around without help from the U.S?
                            The biggest contribution was the long range bomber/recon squadrons. These were the ones that closed 'the gap'. Britain certainly had the capability to cover this itself, and probably at the right time too. Indeed the UK could have covered any of the areas where the US made a significant contribution (of which the Battle of the Atlantic was but one) but it's doubtful it could have covered them all.
                            Signing out.

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                            • #15
                              It wasn't just Pearl. Japan could not have tolerated agrowing military, naval and air bases in the Philipines directly across their supply lines from the Indonesian oil fields so once they decided to go in that direction an attack on US was necessary. The oil was essential to continuing the was in China so the oil way this could have played out is if Japan had sat at home and not attacked anyone. in that case, a lot of British assets would have been freed up.

                              Also, by directly more and more aggressive "neutrality" Roosevelt was manuevering the US into a position where some incident would have given him enough support to go to war with Germany anyway.

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