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India/Pakistan 2009

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  • #16
    1.) Why would the Chinese interfere militarily on Pakistan's behalf?
    2.) What would they have to gain from such an intervention? Would it offset the cost (political, military, and economic)?

    The Chinese have nothing in common (religion, ethinicity, culture) with the Pakistani populace. This is more of an alliance of convenience. They will not go to war for a client state. They have had several chances to intervene and they didn't.

    In the 1973 war, Nixon asked China to send several divisions to the Himalayas to draw Indian forces and ease pressure on the Pakistani forces. They refused.

    There is a popular theme in the Indian boards: "China will fight India to the last Pakistani." This is closer to the truth.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by IDonT4 View Post
      1.) Why would the Chinese interfere militarily on Pakistan's behalf?
      2.) What would they have to gain from such an intervention? Would it offset the cost (political, military, and economic)?

      The Chinese have nothing in common (religion, ethinicity, culture) with the Pakistani populace. This is more of an alliance of convenience. They will not go to war for a client state. They have had several chances to intervene and they didn't.

      In the 1973 war, Nixon asked China to send several divisions to the Himalayas to draw Indian forces and ease pressure on the Pakistani forces. They refused.

      There is a popular theme in the Indian boards: "China will fight India to the last Pakistani." This is closer to the truth.


      It boils down to the following sentence MY ENEMY'S ENEMY IS MY FRIEND

      India and Pakisthan are sworn enemies, so China cultivates friendly relationship with Pakisthan and in the process earns an ally against India.

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      • #18
        Does the Chinese navy have any capability for operations in the Indian Ocean? I've heard Chinese naval ships have made a apperance in anti piracy ops off Africa. But that has many differences from combat ops vs India.

        Does the Chinese air force have any sigificant ability to strike inside india?

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Slim View Post

          The possibility you mention is not feasible because the border between India and China consits of the worlds, highest mountain and worlds highest cold desert plateau, neither India or China can deploy any meaningful mechanized forces for any blitzing type operations. In mountainous terrain defender has lot of advantages, offensive helicopter are very difficult and vulnerable in the himalayas. The vast majority of opoerayions will be conducted by light infantry forces and artillery. Evenif Chinese forces managed to defeat india in a border war and drive them out of the himalayas they will have a logistical nightmare of insurmountable proportions if they plan to bring huge armored forces into the plains of India over the worlds highest mountains and blitz acroos India.
          Well said and there is a precedent for this. After the 1962 war China did a tactical retreat because they knew that they could not keep the front lines supplied for any extended period of time

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Slim View Post
            The only way China can defeat India is a massive ssm strike that completely blankets India and which China is capable of.
            Those ssm are right now deployed across Taiwan. If they did move those towards India then they can say good bye to Taiwan.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Slim View Post

              It boils down to the following sentence MY ENEMY'S ENEMY IS MY FRIEND

              India and Pakisthan are sworn enemies, so China cultivates friendly relationship with Pakisthan and in the process earns an ally against India.
              That begs the question, does China consider India as an enemy? OR does it pretend to be to get what it wants from Pakistan, namely the port of Gwadar to help secure its oil access?

              China will not spend its blood and treasure to fight India for the sake of Pakistan. If India does not threaten its oil supplies, it will stay neutral.

              What you are proposing is a full scale Chinese military intervention on behalf of Pakistan - which is expensive. Will not happen due to the excess cost such as: lower economic growth, desruption of Chinese trade, etc.
              Last edited by IDonT4; 03 Apr 09, 09:55.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by IDonT4 View Post
                That begs the question, does China consider India as an enemy? OR does it pretend to be to get what it wants from Pakistan, namely the port of Gwadar to help secure its oil access?

                China will not spend its blood and treasure to fight India for the sake of Pakistan. If India does not threaten its oil supplies, it will stay neutral.

                What you are proposing is a full scale Chinese military intervention on behalf of Pakistan - which is expensive. Will not happen due to the excess cost such as: lower economic growth, desruption of Chinese trade, etc.
                That hunk of land up in Kashmir region, Jammu-Kashmir region. China controls Aksai Chin which India says belongs to India. If China could gain control of Jammu-Kashmir, it would provide a great landbridge straight into the Middle East avoiding much of the Himalaya Mountain range.
                Both Nations have a 'billion' people to feed as well. As natural resources dry up in the World, so will the restraints man uses in political decisions.
                "Never push the red button" Daffy Duck

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
                  Does the Chinese navy have any capability for operations in the Indian Ocean? I've heard Chinese naval ships have made a apperance in anti piracy ops off Africa. But that has many differences from combat ops vs India.

                  Does the Chinese air force have any sigificant ability to strike inside india?


                  India leads China in experience with aircfraft carriers. China leads India in experience with ssns/ssbns. Without an aircraft carrier chinese ships would be exposed in the Indian ocean. It is my opinion that Indian surface fllet minus its aircraft carriers have some technical edge over china. While China has a far larger fleet and far better shipbuilding capacity.

                  India is building up a fairly dense network of airbases on its southern and eastern cost and its islands especially close to the Straits of mallaca (a very crucial shipping lane for the Chinese.)

                  China on the other hand is building ports and probably bases in many countrie in the Indian ocean surrounding India.

                  China and India have roughly similar number of third generation and better aircraft. China has overall twice the number of aircraft but most of these are 2nd generation ac. It is widely believed that the 100-120 Su 30 MKI ac of the Indians is superior to anything the chinese currently have.

                  In one area the Chinese have an undisputed and very significant lead over India is SSMS.
                  Last edited by Slim; 03 Apr 09, 15:47.

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                  • #24
                    You people are forgetting that Pakistan sends billions of dollars china's way, providing an incentive to keep Pakistan as China's viable regional partner. China's military has a large operating expense whether it is at war or not, and as far as equipment goes, well alot of it is on the way out anyways so why not use it? Costs? Lives? What are you a pansy westerner? Since when did far-east culture value the lives of soldiers?
                    And you forget, they do not have to fight to win. Merely having the forces in position to do able to act may be sufficient to force India to keep its own forces in position to act, leaving them out of the war with Pakistan, so that Pakistan will never have to face the entire Indian army at once.
                    Last edited by Cicero; 03 Apr 09, 15:51.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Cicero View Post
                      You people are forgetting that Pakistan sends billions of dollars china's way. China's military has a large operating expense whether it is at war or not, and as far as equipment goes, well alot of it is on the way out anyways so why not use it? Costs? Lives? What are you a pansy westerner? Since when did far-east culture value the lives of soldiers?
                      And you forget, they do not have to fight to win. Merely having the forces in position to do able to act may be sufficient to force India to keep its own forces in position to act, leaving them out of the war with Pakistan.


                      If you read my earlier posts I have explained why India would not have to move forces from Pak border to the Chinese border or vice versa

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                      • #26
                        thank you, I'll go back over that. Of course if you posted that bit about the some part being impassable for armor, I thought that sounded very much like what the French and English said about the Ardennes Forest.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Legosim View Post
                          Well, assuming China MAY enter the conflict, in a non-nuclear war, how would India fail versus China, if they (unlike Germany) could defeat Pakistan quick enough to turn their armor around and head for the Chinese border?:
                          They don't need to be but so fast. Armor will only be good on the defensive, as you're talking about the most forbidding mountains on eath.


                          Originally posted by Legosim View Post
                          Or what's the possibility of China blitzing into India before she can beat Pakistan? How would India fight in a two front war, as guerillas will give Indian troops a lot of trouble in Pakistan.:

                          Odds of China blitzing through they Himalayas to anywhere. 1-157638. Guerillas would be a part of both fronts, remember the Tibetans? I'll bet a war with India would be the catalyst to start a full scale guerilla campaign all in China's Himalayan border.

                          Originally posted by Legosim View Post
                          Also...would Russia come in against China on India's side? I don't think so.

                          Edit: Yay 100th post
                          Russia wouldn't help China unless India threatened to Nuke Russia. Even then I'm skeptical. Whatever weakens China's military is good for Russian National Security.
                          Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Cicero View Post
                            thank you, I'll go back over that. Of course if you posted that bit about the some part being impassable for armor, I thought that sounded very much like what the French and English said about the Ardennes Forest.
                            you could get armor through the mountains, but at an atrociously slow rate. Especially if India made it's attack into pakistan during the winter or spring thaw. Sheer cliffs are a little more forboding than a hilly forest.
                            Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Cicero View Post
                              thank you, I'll go back over that. Of course if you posted that bit about the some part being impassable for armor, I thought that sounded very much like what the French and English said about the Ardennes Forest.


                              Hi Cicero,

                              The Himalayas are an entirely different story. And the Indians have no illusions about Chinese might. They have a bad habit of getting complacent no doubt, but they will not let the chinese do an ardennes to them.

                              Let me tell you this. Indians know that the Chinese are mightier than them. Indians also know that Pakistan is inferior to them. Why then would India deploy less than 10 percent of its total armour against the Chinese, espescially after they got such a licking at the hands of the chinese in 1962, and they have fought 3 major wars with the Pakisthanis and always come out ahead and still deploy 90 percent of theior armor/mech forces aginst them.

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                              • #30
                                [QUOTE=TacCovert4;1164106]you could get armor through the mountains, but at an atrociously slow rate. Especially if India made it's attack into pakistan during the winter or spring thaw. Sheer cliffs are a little more forboding than a hilly forest.[/QUOTE]

                                And to top it off most of the Himalayas turn into a frozen tundra during winter.

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