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Dec 31, 2008. USAF nukes several iranian nuclear facilities - what then?

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  • #16
    Originally posted by ACSpectre View Post
    I really do consider this an entirely plausible scenario. The actual timeline might differ from what you have posted but I think this is something that will most likely HAVE to happen in the near future. I say this because anyone that thinks the minute Iran develops nuclear weapons that they won't employ them against Israel is deluding themselves.

    This act would further alienate the U.S. from the Arab world (if that's possible). I think it would start the mother of all Jihads with several coutries in the region banding together to fight this "attack on Islam". Israel would be attacked with everything the Arab world could throw at her. Any country in the world not allied with the U.S. would once again feel the chafe of U.S. hegemony and actively pursue a nuclear program. With the genie out of the bottle again countries like India and Pakistan would be much more likely to use their nuclear capabilities to settle their feud once and for all. North Korea would complete a weapon and use it or at least threaten to use it. South Korea would lobby the U.S. to do the same thing in North Korea that it did in Iran and if the North Koreans do indeed have nuclear capabilities at that point, the U. S. would likely oblige.

    I think the fuse for this scenario has already been lit and detonation is not far away. This global conflict will make the others pale in comparison and the very existence of the planet is quite literally at stake.
    Right.

    Public opinion is all Arab countries is anti-US anyway, and it won't change with the media they have.

    But the difference is that nuking Iran's nuclear program would probably topple the leadership in those countries that manage to have a rational leadership right now. Pakistan is of course the worst case, as they have nuclear weapons. If India sides with the U.S. in the aftermath that area might get hot, and then we could face "real" nuclear destruction, not just taking out some engineering sites.

    Question is: is this really creating a worse situation or is it just accelerating inevitable events? People have been so successful in blaming the U.S. and Israel for all their misery the potential is there.

    Apart from the Pakistan situation developing into war the next worst thing would be an actual Arab unification. But quite honestly I don't see that happen, they seem to be so far off that goal. And Iran isn't part of greater Arabia. Some Arab countries' leadership, even if anti-US, might even (secretly) be glad if Iran's nuclear program gets taken out.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
      Another problem with this scenario is that both Korea & Pakistan have a supply of nuclear weapons. While for the moment they both have them somewhat secure there is no guarantee they will not fall to the control of someone willing to use them. An attack on Iran would end any incentive of North Korea to keep its weapons stored away. They would imeadiately disperse them to safer locations. They would also be much closer to deciding to use them, before they lose them. A premeptive strike against US bases in Japan or South Korea would be tempting.

      In the case of Pakistan the odds are the current government that cooperates to s,oe degree with the US would evaporate in a hour or two. A new and hostile government would also be panicked into the use it or lose it thinking. In that case attacks on US facilities in range would be possible, attacks on any remaining ME governemnts still friendly to the US are possible. Or, one or more of the weapons might be sent concealed in a cargo ship towards a target.

      In other words, by attempting to eleiminate a potiential nuclear threat in Iran this strike would trigger one or more active threats elsewhere.
      Do you think that North Korea doesn't already disperse and protect their nuclear weapons as much as they possibly can? I think that the North Korean leadership is as close as it possibly can to assuming the U.S. might attack them the next hour.

      But there might be some new supporters for N.K.

      On the Pakistan side, there's no question it would make the situation worse.

      The British should never have given them all the education to come up with nukes later. Talk about a backlash from imperialism.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Redwolf View Post
        Why would the Chinese mind if the U.S. knocks out Iran's nuclear potential?

        Of course they will be or at least play royally pissed. It's not China's declared style to mess with other countries (exceptions apply but they don't count for them).

        But isn't it in their interest?
        I don't know as China would really care if Iran got targeted. But they might be worried that maybe they would be on a target list after Iran. I may be wrong but I think they might be the only one who can reach the US with missiles. (Question to others. Is that right? )

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Redwolf View Post
          Apart from the Pakistan situation developing into war the next worst thing would be an actual Arab unification. But quite honestly I don't see that happen, they seem to be so far off that goal. And Iran isn't part of greater Arabia. Some Arab countries' leadership, even if anti-US, might even (secretly) be glad if Iran's nuclear program gets taken out.
          It wouldn't be an Arab unification as much as it would be a Muslim unification. Certain Arab governments would indeed like to see Iran's nuclear potential destroyed but those same governments would also like any reason whatsoever to support, either overtly or covertly, the destruction of Israel. Many of these same governments, while friendly to the West on the face, harbor deep resentment of Western and especially American hegemony. While there definitely will be some political factors involved in the next global conflict, I believe at its core sides will be divided along lines of religious belief.
          "Looks like you guys are going to be surrounded."

          "We're paratroopers, Lieutenant. We're supposed to be surrounded."

          Rangers Lead The Way

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Redwolf View Post
            Do you think that North Korea doesn't already disperse and protect their nuclear weapons as much as they possibly can? I think that the North Korean leadership is as close as it possibly can to assuming the U.S. might attack them the next hour.
            If they are not now they will be. & if they are a smart custodian will move some or all around just in case we have locations identified.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Psyhcoward View Post
              I don't know as China would really care if Iran got targeted. But they might be worried that maybe they would be on a target list after Iran. I may be wrong but I think they might be the only one who can reach the US with missiles. (Question to others. Is that right? )
              China, USSR, Britian, and France can all hit the US with ICBM. I cant recall anything about crusie missles. All four may still have military aircraft that could reach targets in the US. By using identification transponders from a comercial ariliner a military aircraft can try to sneak in amoung the 1000+ passenger and cargo aircraft that fly into the US daily. Or a regular cargo flight could conceal a nuke. That would be trickier, but not impossible. Then there are cargo ships, submarine launched missles, nuclear armed torpedos, small fast type craft like drug smugglers use...

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              • #22
                Well, if the US did use nukes on Iran, it would prove one thing.
                They were right, the USA is the 'Great Satan'

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                • #23
                  First off it would be political suicide for whoever did it and their party. The world at large would be pissed, except Israel (Can't blame them). Big question is ; where did the nuke fallout go??? Most likely over to Southwest China and the surrounding area. These people would be upset and sue the US for damages. On the other hand it could scare the hell out of everyone else that wants to develop nukes, they could think that it might not be a good idea to open up the "Can" right now. I see the other side that was mentioned also of us or lose also. Which means the US would have to be prepared and have good intel resources and assets ready to respond immediately.

                  As far as a war with China. If they were as determined as they were in Korea, Nukes would be the only way to stop them in Asia. Conventionally we could stop them from getting to the US because we are so far away. Our Navy and home Air Forces would be able to stop them. But in mainland Asia???? And in China itself, no way. We just don't have the troops/people to take them.

                  I agree with ACSectre comment earlier.

                  I also agree that many Muslim nations and all islamic terror organizations would be out for our blood with recruits lining up to join from Iran.

                  Another big issue is the affect that this would have on the world economy. Look what 9/11 did. Also look at what the recent gas prices etc. did to the stock market world wide. Kiss the 401K goodbye (If it still has anything left).

                  As far as Pakistan and India: I believe it will happen some day. More likely now with the new governmental changes there. All it will take is a very pro Islamic ruler and the right timing. Pakistan has no chance against India in a conventional war. They would have to use the nukes. If they did, India would. I believe India has a few more and better/more ways to deliver them. Once again, where will the fallout go??? Mostly likely right back on India or up into Southern China. If they went all out, I believe they have 15-20 nukes each. The most they would likely get to use would be 5-10 each. That's a lot of stuff in the air. On a sick note; it would reduce the overpopulation problem in India. No one could live there for a long time however. They would never recover from this war.

                  Well that was depressing. Should we send a copy of all our comment to the White House???

                  Great scenario Redwolf!!

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                  • #24
                    I don't think there would be that much fallout from a U.S. attack on specific small targets. Not enough fuel in there and the efficiency (the amount of nuclear fission fuel actually converted to energy and not just splattered into the air) is very high these days.

                    Of course that wouldn't keep people from complaining to Washington

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Sir Brian View Post
                      As far as a war with China. If they were as determined as they were in Korea, Nukes would be the only way to stop them in Asia.
                      I disagree with this part. Their determination didn't do anything in Korea, they were getting stomped on. US refusal to invade the North is what kept that war dragging on.

                      War between US and China? Pardon my highjacking but we could take them down. They would be the ones using nukes in desperation. Their Navy would be toast in less than one month and that huge army is all size and no quality. If the US ever deployed in force on Asia, they wouldn't last. And they would never be able to attack us since all that manpower has to cross the Pacific - not a likely event when your fleet assets are getting violated in the six o'clock region by Seawolf submarines and carrier task forces.
                      A new life awaits you in the off world colonies; the chance to begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure!

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by redcoat View Post
                        Well, if the US did use nukes on Iran, it would prove one thing.
                        They were right, the USA is the 'Great Satan'
                        How exactly is it satanic to nuke a civilization that wants to kill every man woman and child of your civilization? They aren't going to show any mercy on us. I always found it faulty logic that America should let Iran nuke us in the interests of being the better man.

                        That's the problem with pacifism. You may wind up the "better man", but but you will be a dead "better man".

                        I never took an interest in PR. If watching New York disappear in a nuclear fireball is the cost of the wold's love, let them hate us. I'd rather be feared and alive then liked and dead.
                        A new life awaits you in the off world colonies; the chance to begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure!

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Dec 31, 2008. USAF nukes several iranian nuclear facilities - what then?

                          Originally posted by Redwolf View Post
                          I think most people understand that conventional air attacks to destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities aren't really feasible.
                          Hello Redwolf.
                          How are you?
                          Interesting post.
                          Nuking Iranian nuclear facilities?
                          Wow!
                          To be honest, I don't see a scenario happening where I would ever want to use nuclear weapons as a first strike weapon.
                          Once you go through that door, it's on.
                          Correct me if I'm wrong, I seem to recall during the Cold War, the United States saw it's nuclear weapons as a deterrance, not as a first strike weapon.
                          I know the Cold War against the Soviet Union is over.
                          I enjoy discussing nukes, watching films of their explosions etc.
                          But to actually use them on someone?
                          Never in a first strike.


                          "Advances in technology tend to overwhelm me."

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Slug View Post
                            Hello Redwolf.
                            How are you?
                            Interesting post.
                            Nuking Iranian nuclear facilities?
                            Wow!
                            To be honest, I don't see a scenario happening where I would ever want to use nuclear weapons as a first strike weapon.
                            Once you go through that door, it's on.
                            Correct me if I'm wrong, I seem to recall during the Cold War, the United States saw it's nuclear weapons as a deterrance, not as a first strike weapon.
                            I know the Cold War against the Soviet Union is over.
                            I enjoy discussing nukes, watching films of their explosions etc.
                            But to actually use them on someone?
                            Never in a first strike.


                            I'm not sure what Street Fighter...smilies?...have to do with the discussion but it looks cool!

                            He he, Blanka's shock tactic and Ryu's Hadouken are some of the most irritating special moves.

                            I wouldn't nuke in a first strike but that has more to do with tactics than principle. I have no problem with nuking an enemy in principle but carpet bombing is just as effective and doesn't shower nearby allies with radiation.
                            A new life awaits you in the off world colonies; the chance to begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure!

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                            • #29
                              The question is - could people consider the great nuclear standoff of the cold war over and start using nuclear weapons to achieve goals other weapons can't? (when the goal is important enough)

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by pirateship1982 View Post
                                How exactly is it satanic to nuke a civilization that wants to kill every man woman and child of your civilization?
                                If that was true you might have a point, but it isn't, so you don't.

                                Comment

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