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First Battle of the Marne

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  • First Battle of the Marne

    Now, you guys probably talked about his alot, but what would have happened if teh germans beat the french at the battle of the Marne and got to paris.

  • #2
    Game over?
    I dont think so. In 1870, the Germans surrounded Paris, and that war dragged on many months. With the moral and determination that France displayed in that war, which was phenominal, I dont see Paris's fall knocking them out of the war totaly... nor do I see the Germans being able to transfer enought men east to force a descision that year.

    Maybe France is beaten into submission in 1915 or 16, maybe Britian can amintain a toe-hold in Britany. Maybe the Germans can win by 1917... or maybe Britain clobbers Turkey with the men that would have been at the Somme instead, and the Eastern Front is the decisive front in this war.

    Imagine what the Russian and Turkish fronts would have looked like with tripple the manpower involved
    "Why is the Rum gone?"

    -Captain Jack

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Ace_General View Post
      Now, you guys probably talked about his alot, but what would have happened if teh germans beat the french at the battle of the Marne and got to paris.
      Great thread . Will really have to become single to devote enough time to these subjects !

      The what ifs become endless. .
      How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
      Global Warming & Climate Change Myths: https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Ace_General View Post
        Now, you guys probably talked about his alot, but what would have happened if teh germans beat the french at the battle of the Marne and got to paris.
        The Germans would have the entire British Expeditionary Force and the Belgians chewing into their right flank the entire time.
        "Profanity is but a linguistic crutch for illiterate motherbleepers"

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        • #5
          Originally posted by johnbryan View Post
          The Germans would have the entire British Expeditionary Force and the Belgians chewing into their right flank the entire time.
          I'm not so sure. both those armys were 'one shot' affairs that summer lacking the supply muscle for a sustained or series or attacks. Also the BEF was intially deployed well inside the German evelopment and John French early on made the decsion that kept it sandwiched within the French armys.

          Also the BEF supply line ran South West to the Atlantic ports & not the Channel ports as many folks guess. Aside from hastily abandoning the French armys shortly after the Battle of Mons the BEF would have to somehow realign its supply line (which depended of the French run railroads) to the Channel ports in a hurry.

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          • #6
            I think at 99% game over.

            let's be clear, Paris would not fall. as in 1870-71, Paris would be surrounded, pounded and starved. Italy might witch to the Central POwers as well, and with the bulk of french population and most industry under German control, France would have to stop it as well.

            Britain would have recognized it was a foolish war to have entered, and as it would not have lost much yet, why not agree to stop it right there - reluctantly having to recognize Germany's rule over continental europe...

            Russia would also agree to a cease fire that is reasonable on Serbia, etc. etc.


            all in all a much better world, much much better- except the fact that german is a tough language to learn.
            "Freedom cannot exist without discipline, self-discipline, and rights cannot exist without duties. Those who do not observe their duties do not deserve their rights."--Oriana Fallaci

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            • #7
              There would be another war in my opion as the germans didn't want to totally rule europe, I heard that they just wanted a slice of the good industrial bits of northern france.

              And what of the Russian revolution and Lenin and non war weary allies

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              • #8
                Originally posted by piero1971 View Post
                I think at 99% game over.


                It depends on the defeat scenario :
                A concentration of the 1st,2nd and 3rd German army corps on the North West of Paris with only the 6th French Army and the BEF facing them would surely have resulted into a breach and therefore the siege of Paris with a quick (but bloody) endgame.

                If we stay on the original positions of troops on the 5th of september 1914 and remain realistic :
                September 7, the german 1st AC breaks the French 6th and rushes towards Paris while securing its left flank against the BEF which comes to late. At the same time 2nd and 5th German AC make their breach and turn West.

                The siege of Paris would have seen:
                - BEF(ok) + remaining 6th(broken) and 5th French(forced march) AC
                VS
                - 1st German AC(exhausted) + 2nd and 3rd German AC(heavy casualties)

                The key element would have been the German supply routes (quite thin).
                The scale goes down from 99% to roughly 50%.

                Best regards,
                Raum_Schiff.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Ace_General View Post
                  There would be another war in my opion as the germans didn't want to totally rule europe, I heard that they just wanted a slice of the good industrial bits of northern france.

                  And what of the Russian revolution and Lenin and non war weary allies
                  Each time a 'Germany Wins The Great War' question comes up I eventually turn to to thinking about the economic and social problems that were undermining European stability. 1914 is often seen as the end of a golden Age of realative peace and prosperity for Europe. It does make a good historcal marker, and the effects of the Great War cannot be dismissed.

                  Beyond the the effect of the war there were several very strong trends that were leading directly to the majority of the European and Global problems experinced in the 1920s & 1930s.

                  A growing population, long running shifts in the labor requirements of industry and agriculture, a decline in the ability of North and South America to asorb new immigrants, a long running decline in capitol investment, and fundamental flaws in the European empires underlay the economic and social crisis of the 1920s & 30s. While these problems would have developed somewhat differently had the war been shortened or ended diffferently the European leaders of the next two decades would have been faced with the same fundamental problems.

                  Stagnating industrial growth. Traditional industrial mainstays in decline and many new startups failing.

                  Rising unemployment. Labor and managers forced to to seek new employment in a unstable job market where business failures are much more common.

                  Currency instability/investment instability. Investment returns from old established and stagnated industrys fell off. The unstable nature of new technology startups causes the overall returns from new investment to be low and unpredicatble.

                  In the interwar years, particularly the 1920s European politicians and busniness leaders did not understand the fundamental changes they were dealing with. All had learned their lessons during the realatively properous years of 1890-1910, when the social and economic fundamentals were realatively stable and any declines or downward trends were not yet rapid or volitile.

                  Germany was ruled by politicians and business leaders as conservative and tradition bound as any. They had severe difficulty in dealing with the changes forced on them by the outcome of the Great War. I is vary likely they would have fumbled the same way had they won the war. France, Britian and the others all had trouble adapting industrial, tax, and social policy to the demographic and economic changes. I see the same problem whoever wins the war. It is possible the divsions between the Kaisers portion of the government and the democratic side would aggravate the inability to deal effectively with the changes. So, the pressure for political and other changes in Germany would have been enourmous. The German Imperialists would have like found themselves unable to enjoy the victory for very long.

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                  • #10
                    It's possible to simulate this in TOAW- The Battle of the Marne. IMO It could have gone either way, but against a decent defense no way. I've tried both sides.
                    Tactics are based on Weapons... Strategy on Movement... and Movement on Supply.
                    (J. F. C. Fuller 1878-1966)

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by General Staff View Post
                      It's possible to simulate this in TOAW- The Battle of the Marne. IMO It could have gone either way, but against a decent defense no way. I've tried both sides.
                      Sory to ask but ... what is TOAW ?

                      Best Regards,
                      Raum_Schiff.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by raum_schiff View Post
                        Sorry to ask but ... what is TOAW ?

                        Best Regards,
                        Raum_Schiff.
                        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Operational_Art_of_War
                        Tactics are based on Weapons... Strategy on Movement... and Movement on Supply.
                        (J. F. C. Fuller 1878-1966)

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                        • #13
                          Now, where could I get TOAW for free peferably downloadable, that would work on a mac

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                          • #14
                            My game model for thsi one was the old Avalon Hill game 1914. It did not have a 'Marne' scenario per se. It depicted the overall campaign in NW Europe from August thru November. It did clearly illustrate the problem of keeping the German right wing supplied. After we played it a few times (circa 1971) we became very concious of the possiblities of a Allied cavalry corps getting behind the German right wing and running amok across the just restored railroad tracks.

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                            • #15
                              Yeah, I saw that game too, though didn't buy. But I did have AH Gettysburg, Anzio, Squad Leader++ and a bunch of others from outfits like SPI. I even had Drang nach Osten from GDW which took just hours to set up.

                              TOAW is all of them in one package. Trust me, I've been there. I'm not trying to sell anything here, other than an opinion.

                              As to Ace and free, well you could plead poverty to management at Matrix Games and see where that gets you.
                              Tactics are based on Weapons... Strategy on Movement... and Movement on Supply.
                              (J. F. C. Fuller 1878-1966)

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