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  • Siberia invaded by the Japanese

    OK. December 1941. Japan decides to attack Russia. How does this affect the Soviet defense in European Russia? How long until Japan runs into severe oil supply problems?


  • #2
    Originally posted by skoblin View Post
    OK. December 1941. Japan decides to attack Russia. How does this affect the Soviet defense in European Russia? How long until Japan runs into severe oil supply problems?
    December is IMO never the best time to move into Siberia with dark intentions
    Either months earlier or months later.
    What you want to hear of course is that the Siberian divisions would not be available for Stavka to counter attack around Moscow in December '41 and what consequences would that have?

    As for the oil supply, that was an important reason Japan attacked south towards the oil in Borneo instead of north into Siberia.
    BoRG

    You may not be interested in War, but War is interested in You - Leon Trotski, June 1919.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by skoblin View Post
      OK. December 1941. Japan decides to attack Russia. How does this affect the Soviet defense in European Russia? How long until Japan runs into severe oil supply problems?
      Does Japan still attack the US in this scenario?
      If the art of war were nothing but the art of avoiding risks,glory would become the prey of mediocre minds. Napoleon

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      • #4
        Huh, I don't think the japs would be interested in ice and polar bears and whatnot, and the japs would run out of supplies and freeze to death before they got anywhere

        Sgt. Ace_General

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Ace_General View Post
          Huh, I don't think the japs would be interested in ice and polar bears and whatnot, and the japs would run out of supplies and freeze to death before they got anywhere

          Sgt. Ace_General
          Mind you, they were already in Korea and Manchuria.
          The so called 'Northern school' (mainly popular in the army) saw a future for Japan in this direction.
          BoRG

          You may not be interested in War, but War is interested in You - Leon Trotski, June 1919.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by captainsennef View Post
            Mind you, they were already in Korea and Manchuria.
            The so called 'Northern school' (mainly popular in the army) saw a future for Japan in this direction.
            Quite right,IIRC the army was more interesed in the north while the navy wanted to expand through the Southern Pacific,I guess we know who won that arguement I do think that an Japanese attack would have been disasterous for the USSR. While the JA's armor is not as good as Soviet armor,the soldiers are very good,underrated IMHO, and Japan's airpower was far supeiror to the Red AF. Also let's not forget the loss of raw materials the Soviets would face.
            If the art of war were nothing but the art of avoiding risks,glory would become the prey of mediocre minds. Napoleon

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            • #7
              Based on what happened at Khalkhin-Gol I don't see the Japanese enjoying much success, at least of a lasting nature. Even if they manage to inflict a serious defeat on Soviet forces in Siberia they don't have the logistics to exploit it.
              Signing out.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Full Monty View Post
                Based on what happened at Khalkhin-Gol I don't see the Japanese enjoying much success, at least of a lasting nature. Even if they manage to inflict a serious defeat on Soviet forces in Siberia they don't have the logistics to exploit it.
                Agreed. It would be remarkably easy for the Soviets to tear up the tracks of the Trans-Siberian Railroad and allow the Japanese Invaders to simply wallow in the trackless, swamp wastes and pine barrens of that region. Mosquito repellant would be worth its weight in gold.
                "Profanity is but a linguistic crutch for illiterate motherbleepers"

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                • #9
                  cs has already mentioned the idea that a Japanese offensive might prevent the Soviets moving their experienced divisions away from Siberia thus affecting the Battle of Moscow. But the effect on the campaign in European USSR would hardly be decisive since the Germans had already been forced onto the defensive. The fighting around Moscow may have been easier on the Germans but then Stalin may not have gotten carried away with the more limited success and thus not insisted on overstretching the Red Army in a series of engagements that failed to destroy the German armies as intended. In all likelihood a Japanese attack on the USSR would only have hastened their final defeat.

                  Caveat: If the Japanese went with this strategy instead of attacking Pearl Harbour how long would it have been before the US actually joined the war?
                  Signing out.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Full Monty View Post
                    Caveat: If the Japanese went with this strategy instead of attacking Pearl Harbour how long would it have been before the US actually joined the war?
                    That was an overly subtle implication of the original proposition

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Full Monty View Post
                      cs has already mentioned the idea that a Japanese offensive might prevent the Soviets moving their experienced divisions away from Siberia thus affecting the Battle of Moscow. But the effect on the campaign in European USSR would hardly be decisive since the Germans had already been forced onto the defensive. The fighting around Moscow may have been easier on the Germans but then Stalin may not have gotten carried away with the more limited success and thus not insisted on overstretching the Red Army in a series of engagements that failed to destroy the German armies as intended. In all likelihood a Japanese attack on the USSR would only have hastened their final defeat.

                      Caveat: If the Japanese went with this strategy instead of attacking Pearl Harbour how long would it have been before the US actually joined the war?
                      For my money, not likely after what the Soviets had already done to the Japanese in 1939. Khalklingol was not a lesson that would be quickly forgotten, even for the toadying minions of Joseph Stalin.
                      "Profanity is but a linguistic crutch for illiterate motherbleepers"

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by skoblin View Post
                        That was an overly subtle implication of the original proposition
                        The implications for the British/Commonwealth forces are significant too. Assets originally deployed to the Far East can instead be kept in the ETO/North Africa/Atlantic making the short term situation for the Axis forces, especially in the Med, far more difficult.
                        Signing out.

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                        • #13
                          Well, lets think of this, what if Germany didn't ally Japan, but actually allied Nationalist china and delcared war on the Japanese.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Full Monty View Post
                            The implications for the British/Commonwealth forces are significant too. Assets originally deployed to the Far East can instead be kept in the ETO/North Africa/Atlantic making the short term situation for the Axis forces, especially in the Med, far more difficult.
                            I am sure that if Japan was at war with Russia and Japan was allied with Germany, Stalin would expect the British to offer at least some token show of force against the Japanese....perhaps some naval assets....such as the Prince of Wales and the Repulse. But...let's add to this...the Japanese also attack Hong Kong...since the Japanese navy would serve little purpose in the war against Russia, except in assisting the capture of Vladivostok. And let's suggest the Japanese navy also makes an invasion of the Dutch East Indies in order to secure oil supplies. No attack is made on the US. Does the US get involved? A summertime attack on Russia to tie up Soviet reserves in the Far East. The German attack on Moscow still peters out. But the Soviet counter-offensive is much weaker. The German 9th, 4th and 2 panzer armies suffer much less losses. The German position in front of Moscow suffers less of a serious dent. Do the Germans still head south in 1942? Does the stronger German position in front of Moscow compel Hitler to capture the capital in 1942?


                            Originally posted by Ace_General View Post
                            Well, lets think of this, what if Germany didn't ally Japan, but actually allied Nationalist china and delcared war on the Japanese.
                            Why would Germany ally itself with the Nationalist Chinese? Not sure what benefit they would have gained.
                            Last edited by Skoblin; 26 Aug 08, 10:16.

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                            • #15
                              So the U.S. don't go to war with them so quick. I mean, germany wouldn't be fighting the U.S. Cause of pearl Harbor.

                              Weren't the germans equipping the Nationalist chinese in the 30's and early 40's

                              It worked in Hearts of Iron


                              Sgt. Ace_General

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