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WW I Germany doesn't invade Belgium

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  • WW I Germany doesn't invade Belgium

    WW I is erupting across Europe. Germany's military leadership recognizes to some extent that modern weapons might create a bloodbath if force density gets too high. They decide on a "Russia First" Eastern European policy rather than a "Let's crush the French yet again," policy.

    In doing that, they push lots of Landwehr and even some regulars into defensive positions on the French border with orders to hold the French. The bulk of the army turns eastward and moves to crush Russia in 1914.

    The French mobilize after declaring war on Germany (and Germany having done likewise), and commit to the offensive per their then dominant doctrine. The French run headlong into machineguns and rapid firing artillery that turns their offensives into massacres. Trench warfare results. Belgium and the Netherlands are spared from being involved in this war.

    The British stay out of things in 1914 simply because they have little reason to get involved. This is continental warfare, not our problem... They do offer to sell lots of military equipment to Russia and France even as the US continues to do good business with the Germans.

    At sea, both Germany and France are reluctant to engage in large-scale naval warfare because neither wants Britain as an enemy. Instead, both start to rely on foreign hulls to move goods to their country to avoid commerce raiding and potentially submarine warfare.

    By the end of 1915, Russia is on the ropes and brink of surrender. Serbia and the Balkans have collapsed into Austro-Hungarian / German control. France is getting nowhere against Germany while suffering horrific casualties. The Germans are content to massively fortify their border with France and keep things as they are.

    With Russia's collapse and defeat, the French decide it's time to negotiate a peace. By the end of 1916 the war ends, stalemated in the West and with Germany and Austro-Hungary controlling most of Eastern Europe and hold large parts of European Russia.

    What comes next?

  • #2
    I would say that the Germans and the A-H Empire divide up Belarussia, the Ukraine and Russian Poland into agricultural colonies. Turkey would get back some of the Caucasus territories the Russians took from them. The Baltic Countries are made into German protectories. I can see Japan occupying larges areas along the Trans-Siberian railroad. The Germans and A-H empire get much of their oil needs met by the occupied areas in the Ukraine, Estonia and Poland.

    Pruitt
    Pruitt, you are truly an expert! Kelt06

    Have you been struck by the jawbone of an ASS lately?

    by Khepesh "This is the logic of Pruitt"

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    • #3
      It would probably end up worse than in OTL. After conquering the East, the Kaiser would eventually look at the traditional enemy, France. Without Imperial Russia to worry about, he'd have more troops for France.

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      • #4
        There was no reason for Russia to collapse before than it did in real life. At the opposite, the difficult situation can push for more patriotic motivation and no revolution.
        There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Idiots

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Emtos View Post
          There was no reason for Russia to collapse before than it did in real life. At the opposite, the difficult situation can push for more patriotic motivation and no revolution.
          Sure there is. If a larger portion of the German army moved East and conducted more aggressive offensives, the Russians would have fallen apart sooner.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post

            Sure there is. If a larger portion of the German army moved East and conducted more aggressive offensives, the Russians would have fallen apart sooner.
            Russians were forced to conduct Mazur lakes offensive to distract Germans from Verdun. After that, Brusilov's offensive was launched and Romania decided to join the war, get kicked and called Russia for help. Without emergency in France, those wouldn't have happened.
            There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Idiots

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