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WW I Germany doesn't invade Belgium

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  • WW I Germany doesn't invade Belgium

    WW I is erupting across Europe. Germany's military leadership recognizes to some extent that modern weapons might create a bloodbath if force density gets too high. They decide on a "Russia First" Eastern European policy rather than a "Let's crush the French yet again," policy.

    In doing that, they push lots of Landwehr and even some regulars into defensive positions on the French border with orders to hold the French. The bulk of the army turns eastward and moves to crush Russia in 1914.

    The French mobilize after declaring war on Germany (and Germany having done likewise), and commit to the offensive per their then dominant doctrine. The French run headlong into machineguns and rapid firing artillery that turns their offensives into massacres. Trench warfare results. Belgium and the Netherlands are spared from being involved in this war.

    The British stay out of things in 1914 simply because they have little reason to get involved. This is continental warfare, not our problem... They do offer to sell lots of military equipment to Russia and France even as the US continues to do good business with the Germans.

    At sea, both Germany and France are reluctant to engage in large-scale naval warfare because neither wants Britain as an enemy. Instead, both start to rely on foreign hulls to move goods to their country to avoid commerce raiding and potentially submarine warfare.

    By the end of 1915, Russia is on the ropes and brink of surrender. Serbia and the Balkans have collapsed into Austro-Hungarian / German control. France is getting nowhere against Germany while suffering horrific casualties. The Germans are content to massively fortify their border with France and keep things as they are.

    With Russia's collapse and defeat, the French decide it's time to negotiate a peace. By the end of 1916 the war ends, stalemated in the West and with Germany and Austro-Hungary controlling most of Eastern Europe and hold large parts of European Russia.

    What comes next?

  • #2
    I would say that the Germans and the A-H Empire divide up Belarussia, the Ukraine and Russian Poland into agricultural colonies. Turkey would get back some of the Caucasus territories the Russians took from them. The Baltic Countries are made into German protectories. I can see Japan occupying larges areas along the Trans-Siberian railroad. The Germans and A-H empire get much of their oil needs met by the occupied areas in the Ukraine, Estonia and Poland.

    Pruitt
    Pruitt, you are truly an expert! Kelt06

    Have you been struck by the jawbone of an ASS lately?

    by Khepesh "This is the logic of Pruitt"

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    • #3
      It would probably end up worse than in OTL. After conquering the East, the Kaiser would eventually look at the traditional enemy, France. Without Imperial Russia to worry about, he'd have more troops for France.

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      • #4
        There was no reason for Russia to collapse before than it did in real life. At the opposite, the difficult situation can push for more patriotic motivation and no revolution.
        There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Idiots

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Emtos View Post
          There was no reason for Russia to collapse before than it did in real life. At the opposite, the difficult situation can push for more patriotic motivation and no revolution.
          Sure there is. If a larger portion of the German army moved East and conducted more aggressive offensives, the Russians would have fallen apart sooner.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post

            Sure there is. If a larger portion of the German army moved East and conducted more aggressive offensives, the Russians would have fallen apart sooner.
            Russians were forced to conduct Mazur lakes offensive to distract Germans from Verdun. After that, Brusilov's offensive was launched and Romania decided to join the war, get kicked and called Russia for help. Without emergency in France, those wouldn't have happened.
            There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Idiots

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            • #7
              Germany sets up close political ties with Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania by turning them into independent countries, with the added benefit of them serving as a buffer zone against any possible Russian aggression.

              It also assures that Germany is not surrounded from all sides by nations hostile too her.

              France is left alone (Germany has no territorial interests or claims, furthermore, France was beaten after German unification so there is nothing left to prove) and with the French understanding that waging war against Germany alone would lead to certain defeat with the loss of all her colonies. She thus accepts the facts on the ground, that Germany is now at the helm.

              (Germany does not have to violate Belgian neutrality, which keeps England out of the war)

              Germany later unifies with Austrian Germany, a unification that cements her position in Europe as the continental power.

              What follows?

              A Europe that is stable again and that prospers economically as well as culturally.

              There is no WWII, there is no rise of Communism and no rise of National Socialism.

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              • #8
                Meanwhile in the Pacific, the Japanese don't end up with Manchuria and all the German islands in the mid-Pacific. So, the rise of militarism there, while still possible, is tempered by a much smaller colonial footprint and less overseas ambitions.

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                • #9
                  Had Belgium not been invaded Britain might still have entered the war later on: particularly if the Conservatives had gained power.

                  However,without British intervention, there is no reason to automatically assume that.therefore, the Entente would have been defeated.
                  "I dogmatise and am contradicted, and in this conflict of opinions and sentiments I find delight".
                  Samuel Johnson.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by BELGRAVE View Post
                    Had Belgium not been invaded Britain might still have entered the war later on: particularly if the Conservatives had gained power.

                    However,without British intervention, there is no reason to automatically assume that.therefore, the Entente would have been defeated.
                    Agreed. Obviously it's one thing to take Russia, but can you hold it? Russia is in political turmoil. If the Germans can take out the Old Guard, who steps into vacuum? Bolsheviks, Nationalists, Republicans? Consider a truce among them for the duration such as China during WWII. Russia is huge in size and population. What force would the Germans need to control the area?
                    Supply lines would be shorter than WWII, but transportation technology would counter that, leaving another logistical morass.
                    My Avatar: Ivan W. Henderson Gunner/navigator B-25-26. 117 combat missions. Both Theaters. 11 confirmed kills. DSC.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by holly6 View Post

                      Agreed. Obviously it's one thing to take Russia, but can you hold it? Russia is in political turmoil. If the Germans can take out the Old Guard, who steps into vacuum? Bolsheviks, Nationalists, Republicans? Consider a truce among them for the duration such as China during WWII. Russia is huge in size and population. What force would the Germans need to control the area?
                      Supply lines would be shorter than WWII, but transportation technology would counter that, leaving another logistical morass.
                      Lenin would be in exile. In the OTL the Germans gave Lenin and his entourage safe passage through Germany to Russia for the express purpose of letting him formant revolution. Here, there is likely no need as the Germans stomp the Russians pretty easily with the larger army they send East.
                      If there is a revolution, it's likely that the Social-Democrats end up taking power and establishing a Western-Europe-like parliamentary system. That would likely leave the economy weaker but would be politically viable.

                      The Germans really don't need to control much of Russia at all once they surrender. They could formant civil war among the various factions like Belorussia, the Baltic states, and Ukraine to keep things in turmoil and Russia from recovering from the war.

                      Without Britain in the war, the German economy won't collapse because the US would have still been trading heavily with them. Historically, Britain's blockade forced the US to move their trade to Britain and France letting Germany wither. France can't blockade Germany. There are two reasons for that:

                      1. France doesn't have the fleet to do it.
                      2. Britain would probably not agree or allow it to happen as it would mean French ships patrolling off Britain and the N. Atlantic sea lanes. The RN would likely see this as a potential threat to their sea control.

                      At some point, the French would realize that continuing the war gets them nothing so it's likely they would sue for peace once Russia falls.

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                      • #12
                        Interesting. could nit-pick but this is your thread and I'd like to keep it "big picture". Thanks for the response. Gives me something to gnaw over. Good Thread
                        My Avatar: Ivan W. Henderson Gunner/navigator B-25-26. 117 combat missions. Both Theaters. 11 confirmed kills. DSC.

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                        • #13
                          How would this affect Italy?

                          Pruitt
                          Pruitt, you are truly an expert! Kelt06

                          Have you been struck by the jawbone of an ASS lately?

                          by Khepesh "This is the logic of Pruitt"

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BELGRAVE View Post
                            Had Belgium not been invaded Britain might still have entered the war later on: particularly if the Conservatives had gained power.
                            Had Belgian neutrality not been violated England would have had no cause or justification for war.

                            Originally posted by BELGRAVE View Post
                            However,without British intervention, there is no reason to automatically assume that.therefore, the Entente would have been defeated.
                            With Russia out of the picture and with England not in the war there would have been no Entente.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by walle View Post
                              Germany sets up close political ties with Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania by turning them into independent countries, with the added benefit of them serving as a buffer zone against any possible Russian aggression.

                              It also assures that Germany is not surrounded from all sides by nations hostile too her.

                              France is left alone (Germany has no territorial interests or claims, furthermore, France was beaten after German unification so there is nothing left to prove) and with the French understanding that waging war against Germany alone would lead to certain defeat with the loss of all her colonies. She thus accepts the facts on the ground, that Germany is now at the helm.

                              (Germany does not have to violate Belgian neutrality, which keeps England out of the war)

                              Germany later unifies with Austrian Germany, a unification that cements her position in Europe as the continental power.

                              What follows?

                              A Europe that is stable again and that prospers economically as well as culturally.

                              There is no WWII, there is no rise of Communism and no rise of National Socialism.
                              well:
                              according to the 'Germania Magna' map you posted earlier:

                              Italy owns \Austria, and the
                              Gauls, as Italian clients, are 'entitled by moral law" ( sic) to everything west of the Rhine river....
                              \gotta be consistent, Walle. |sauce for the Poles, sauce for the ganders...
                              The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

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