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How could Argentina have come out on top in the falklands or embarassed the RN?

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  • #46
    Originally posted by Andy H View Post
    Let them take the Islands, then place several SSN off the FI coast and off mainland Argentina, and bring their economy to its knees.

    The Argentine economy was as shaky as hell, with its export market curtailed then civil unrest would have escalated and mountain troops or not the regime would have sought self preservation, rather than southern hemisphere Gotterdammerung.
    That would certainly have been the prudent and wise strategy to follow, but it would not very likely have been politically acceptable. I do not believe that the British electorate would allow the RN to simply starve out the invaders. Also, the local British citizenry would have suffered just as badly as the occupiers.
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    • #47
      Originally posted by Herman Hum View Post
      That would certainly have been the prudent and wise strategy to follow, but it would not very likely have been politically acceptable. I do not believe that the British electorate would allow the RN to simply starve out the invaders. Also, the local British citizenry would have suffered just as badly as the occupiers.
      Note Andy H suggests a blockade of the mainland seaports, first. That would be difficult and costly, but the local economy is already on its last legs.

      Naturally, if merchant ships can't arrive to the homeland, nor leave for the foreign markets, they cannot resupply the Falklands. But that doesn't necessarily mean starvation there. Apart from the local resources, if the Vulcans can delivery bombs, they can also deliver parachuted food.

      The problem, I think, is that all blockades, even against a sputtering economy, need time to be effective. I don't know if it would be politically and diplomatically feasible to keep turning the screw for long enough. The UK was already under significant international pressure to just give up.
      Michele

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      • #48
        Originally posted by Michele View Post
        Naturally, if merchant ships can't arrive to the homeland, nor leave for the foreign markets, they cannot resupply the Falklands. But that doesn't necessarily mean starvation there. Apart from the local resources, if the Vulcans can delivery bombs, they can also deliver parachuted food.
        It certainly does mean starvation. The islands do not have the most hospitable climate. Fuel must come from the mainland and there are several thousand additional invader mouths to feed. The extreme efforts undertaken to get the Vulcans to fly the Black Buck missions would be difficult to repeat continuously. The Berlin Airlift required hundreds of aircraft for just one city, (even if the population of Berlin was greater than the entire island.)

        Just imagine all those men (with guns) around the defenceless citizenry. Even if they decide to give everyone an equal share of rations, the civilians will suffer just as badly as the Argentines. More than likely, the conscripts would simply take every morsel available and leave the islanders to starve.
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        • #49
          Originally posted by Herman Hum View Post

          It certainly does mean starvation. The islands do not have the most hospitable climate. Fuel must come from the mainland and there are several thousand additional invader mouths to feed. The extreme efforts undertaken to get the Vulcans to fly the Black Buck missions would be difficult to repeat continuously. The Berlin Airlift required hundreds of aircraft for just one city, (even if the population of Berlin was greater than the entire island.)
          "Greater" is a bit of an understatement. We're talking of what, 2,000 residents and another 5,000 occupation troops? Even if we called that 20,000, the population of West Berlin during the airlift was 2 million. We'd be talking 1%.
          West Berlin was a city with nearly no local farmland, the Falklands' main industry in 1981 were sheep (in the hundreds of thousands) and fish, providing lots of good protein if necessary. Wool production would take a hit, but better than starvation.
          And in Berlin, yes, fuel and even coal were brought in, including for heating. The Vulcans would obviously not drop coal.

          Michele

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          • #50
            Originally posted by Michele View Post
            "Greater" is a bit of an understatement. We're talking of what, 2,000 residents and another 5,000 occupation troops? Even if we called that 20,000, the population of West Berlin during the airlift was 2 million. We'd be talking 1%.
            West Berlin was a city with nearly no local farmland, the Falklands' main industry in 1981 were sheep (in the hundreds of thousands) and fish, providing lots of good protein if necessary. Wool production would take a hit, but better than starvation.
            And in Berlin, yes, fuel and even coal were brought in, including for heating. The Vulcans would obviously not drop coal.
            20,000 mouths, which eat at approximately 1kg of food / day, and those sheep disappear very, very quickly. Fishing is only possible if there is fuel for the ships to go out and get it. Fuel can only arrive via tankers and most of it would go to providing heat.

            The Berlin Airlift was only feasible because the city was surrounded by airfields in close proximity with plenty of ground service personnel available. It would have failed if every transport had to fly 6,600 nautical miles to deliver a load (even if they could fly that far.)
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            • #51
              Evidently, everything depends on for how long can the generals accept the blockade.
              Michele

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              • #52
                Originally posted by Herman Hum View Post
                That would certainly have been the prudent and wise strategy to follow, but it would not very likely have been politically acceptable. I do not believe that the British electorate would allow the RN to simply starve out the invaders. Also, the local British citizenry would have suffered just as badly as the occupiers.
                Hi Herman Hum

                My post is basically a response to those who would see the UK with little choice if the AC's had been lost.
                It would have been politically naÔve for the Government to do nothing in such a situation and this aspect is an option that could have brought about a 'victory' for the British.

                The Argentines would have almost zero capability to counter the blockade in any meaningful manner, no matter what some may wish.
                The British electorate were rather jingoistic in some quarters, with the majority quietly determined to see it through. There were the 'Kumbaya' facets from the usual suspects, but after the (imagined) loss of the carriers, I suspect the determination for the large loss of life not to go un-repaid would have been deafening.

                Regards

                Andy H
                "You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." Churchill

                "I'm no reactionary.Christ on the Mountain! I'm as idealistic as Hell" Eisenhower

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by Andy H View Post
                  My post is basically a response to those who would see the UK with little choice if the AC's had been lost.
                  One Harpoon scenario designer postulated that the Americans could have lent/leased/sold an aircraft carrier to the Royal Navy. After all, it was not too many years earlier that the RN retired their last fixed-wing aircraft carrier. There would likely have been enough experience remaining in the services to man and field an air group.
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                  • #54
                    There were also some modified Essex Carriers still in service. In Vietnam they flew Phantoms off of them.

                    Pruitt
                    Pruitt, you are truly an expert! Kelt06

                    Have you been struck by the jawbone of an ASS lately?

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                    • #55
                      All the Essex class carriers were retired by 1976 except for the Lexington, which was used as a training carrier at NAS Pensacola.
                      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essex-...Ships_in_class

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                      • #56
                        Interesting article about the Falklands war

                        How an Aircraft Carrier and a Submarine Hunted Each Other During the Falklands War
                        https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...ands-war-63657

                        A Carrier at Risk: Argentinean Aircraft Carrier and Anti-Submarine Operations against Royal Navyís Attack Submarines during the Falklands/Malvinas War, 1982 (Latin America@War)
                        https://www.amazon.com/Carrier-Risk-...gateway&sr=8-1

                        91LSE17cWfL.jpg

                        Based on years of research, including extensive investigation into naval operations of both sides of the conflict, A Carrier at Risk is a vibrant and lucid account of a week-long cat-and-mouse game between antisubmarine warfare specialists on board ARA 25 de Mayo, and multiple nuclear attack submarines of the Royal Navy: an entirely unknown, yet crucial aspect of the South Atlantic War.
                        Attached Files

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                        • #57
                          Originally posted by OttoHarkaman View Post
                          Interesting article about the Falklands war

                          How an Aircraft Carrier and a Submarine Hunted Each Other During the Falklands War
                          https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...ands-war-63657

                          A Carrier at Risk: Argentinean Aircraft Carrier and Anti-Submarine Operations against Royal Navyís Attack Submarines during the Falklands/Malvinas War, 1982 (Latin America@War)
                          https://www.amazon.com/Carrier-Risk-...gateway&sr=8-1

                          91LSE17cWfL.jpg
                          interesting i might order that book for more detailed information, but this would seem to cast some doubt on all that bluster about how great submarines are at killing things on the surface...
                          the answer is on the floor- john roseberry

                          A tiger dies and leaves his fur,
                          A man dies and leaves his name,
                          A teacher dies and teaches death.
                          Seikchi Toguchi 1917-1998

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by General_Jacke View Post
                            interesting i might order that book for more detailed information, but this would seem to cast some doubt on all that bluster about how great submarines are at killing things on the surface...
                            Yes I was thinking on ordering a copy also. Brits did have very confining rules of engagement for their subs.

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                            • #59
                              Originally posted by OttoHarkaman View Post

                              Yes I was thinking on ordering a copy also. Brits did have very confining rules of engagement for their subs.
                              i think the only mistake the carrier's CO made was not allowing one of the escorts to break off and go active. i'd be willing to be the RN sub would have either been sunk by the escort and ASW helos, or would have been scared off completely.

                              the answer is on the floor- john roseberry

                              A tiger dies and leaves his fur,
                              A man dies and leaves his name,
                              A teacher dies and teaches death.
                              Seikchi Toguchi 1917-1998

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                              • #60
                                Originally posted by General_Jacke View Post
                                i think the only mistake the carrier's CO made was not allowing one of the escorts to break off and go active. i'd be willing to be the RN sub would have either been sunk by the escort and ASW helos, or would have been scared off completely.
                                Yes interesting tactical idea, I think that would have worked

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