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  • South Asia scenario

    March 2006: After yet more talks, India and Pakistan are making belligerent noises at each other again, lobbing the odd artillery shell across the border. American diplomats have been practising "shuttle diplomacy" trying to get both sides to step back from the brink. Though neither side has made threats to the effect, increased activities at India's nuclear weapons storage facilities have been observed. On 10 May, taking advantage of troop rotations by the Indians, Pakistan moves two mechanized regiments into northern Kashmir. India is furious, demanding withdrawal of the troops, and threatening "terrible consequences". The troops dig in, and Pakistani aircraft fly CAP missions. The Indians stage several attacks, but are unable to dislodge the Pakistani troops. On 1 June, the Indians cease operations, and call for renewed talks. On 3 June, several satellites detect what appears to be a nuclear detonation in southern Tibet. At first, no explanation of the event is offered but, on 7 June, the Indian Prime Minister admits that one of their MiG-23s, suffering an apparent navigation malfunction, dropped a nuclear weapon intended for the Pakistani troops in Kashmir, on a Chinese unit exercising in Tibet.

    This is not an entirely implausible scenario. The larger nuclear powers, and regional neighbors have many questions about how responsibly the Pakistanis and Indians will be with their nuclear arsenals. Now, what do you do either as the Chinese, who have lost thousands of troops and have had their territory attacked; or the Pakistanis, who learn by connection that the weapon was intended for their troops.
    Mens Est Clavis Victoriae
    (The Mind Is The Key To Victory)

  • #2
    Linking this to another thread... talk about a wrong turn...

    I think South Asia's going to get real ugly real quick! The Chinese aren't going to just 'take it' (and neither should they, would anyone else?). I don't see them escalating it as long as India starts grovelling before the Premier's feet with gifts, offers, concessions, and just about anything they can safely and politically trade away. I just can't see them trading tit for tat and vaporizing an Indian division without a war between the two starting. I can see a few conventional 'oops' happening though... an Indian ship gets sunk by an overzealous sub commander, etc.

    Pakistan would have to decide if they want to up the ante and play the 'pre-emptive Bush Doctrine' using nukes, which then pretty much assures Pakistan ceases to exist as a country anymore than Afghanistan is now. I don't think any outside intervention would matter once both sides have decided to make the other glow in the dark and India will 'win' any exchange.

    World opinion would be against both (and US companies would start hiring customer service reps elsewhere) and they dirft isolated towards mega-third world states while the UN is bankrupted picking up the pieces. Just about everyone not having nukes would try to have the UN ban them as weapons and those countries saying 'forget it' (the US, Russia, UK, Britain, and France + others) would tell them no and be seen as bullies on the world scene. Cooperation between nuke-have and have-nots diminishes leading to a dangerous have vs. have nots situation in the UN where they two groups bump heads on every issue and the UN truly becomes meaningless as nuclear countries potentially pull financing as national Congresses and Parliaments refuse to release funds to an agency that threatens national security.
    If voting could really change things, it would be illegal.

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    • #3
      If WW3 ever does start, I have a feeling it will be in the south-east asian area. Pakistan and India have some deep seated hatreds towards each other and sharing a common border with the Chinese who are already somewhat paranoid (although not as bad as the N. Koreans). A few years back, I was pretty sure that there were going to be blows between India and Pakistan, but they both backed off. Next time I'm not so sure they will be so eager to step off the trigger.

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      • #4
        Re: South Asia scenario

        Originally posted by hogdriver
        March 2006: After yet more talks, India and Pakistan are make belligerent noises at each other again, lobbing the odd artillery shell across the border. American diplomats have been practising "shuttle diplomacy" trying to get both sides to step back from the brink. Though neither side has made threats to the effect, increased activities at India's nuclear weapons storage facilities have been observed. On 10 May, taking advantage of troops rotations by the Indians, Pakistan moves two mechanized regiments into northern Kashmir. India is furious, demanding withdrawal of the troops, and threatening "terrible consequences". The troops dig in , and Pakistani aircraft fly CAP missions. The Indians stage several attacks, but are unable to dislodge the Pakistani troops. On 1 June, the Indians cease operations, and call for renewed talks. On 3 June, several satellites detetct what appears to be a nuclear detonation in southern Tibet. At first, no explanation of the event is offered but, on 7 June, the Indian Prime Minister admits that one of their MiG-23s, suffering an apparent navigation malfunction, dropped a nuclear intended for the Pakistani troops in Kashmir, on a Chinese unit exercising in Tibet.

        This is not an entirely implausible scenario. The larger nuclear powers, and regional neighbor have many questions about how responsibly the Pakistanis and Indians will be with their nuclear arsenals. Now, what do you do either as the Chinese, who have lost thousands of troops and have had their territory attacked; or the Pakistanis, who learn by connection that the weapon was intended for their troops.
        Well the first steps would probably be China and Pakistan mobilizing their armies to the fullest.
        Next Pakistan will probably try to ally itself with China in order to get assistance and then try to use the opportunity to seize the rest of Kashmir.
        USA will be frantic in trying to calm things down but I'm not sure what they can do. They will probably loose influence in the region.

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        • #5
          Last year CBS's TV show "The Agency" had an episode about a renegade Pakistani general nearly starting such a conflict with India. Unfortunately, such an occurance if far too likely to actually happen.

          This area along with the Balkans, Korea and the Middle East are the worlds "hottest" spots.
          Lance W.

          Peace through superior firepower.

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