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What if Germany won WW1

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  • #31
    There are two plausible scenarios here for a German win:

    Scenario 1: The quick win.
    The BEF arrives late and there is not "Miracle on the Marne." That is the Germans successfully outflank the French and France collapses much as it did in the previous Franco-Prussian war.

    In this scenario the war is over almost before it began. There is still Russia in the East but the Czar's Armies are crushed pretty rapidly and by 1915 a general peace has occurred.
    The Germans have a standing fleet that makes things interesting for the post war period. Their colonies overseas are intact. There will be no rise of Communism or persons like Hitler coming to power as the post war economy isn't in ruins.
    The French make concessions for losing. Austro-Hungary still collapses into chaos in the 20's or 30's. If there is a rise of dictators and Communism / Fascism it is more likely to occur here than Germany. Russia may still have a revolution but it is possible the Germans don't let Lenin and other ex-pat revolutionaries return to fuel it.
    In fact, Germany likely would support the Czar and White Russians in such a scenario preferring a continuation of the monarchy maybe as a social democratic state with a monarch as its head.
    The Ottoman Empire slowly collapses into ruin. The Turks simply don't have the means to keep things together in the Middle East. How that turns out is anybody's guess but, the instability would delay oil production there by at least a decade or more.
    The20's and 30's would bring a Sino-Chinese war with Japan still likely invading and taking large chunks of China. They likely would use the same pretense they originally did: Getting involved in Russia's civil war and claiming they were just making the situation "stable."

    Scenario 2: The Kaiser's Offensives work. In early 1918 the Kaiser's offensives succeed. America doesn't enter the war, is slow to arrive, or some other factors make this happen. The French Army collapses and the British public clamors for peace learning of the massive losses suffered by the BEF in France in the early stages of this offensive.
    Now you have a scenario where the Germans are more likely to want less and be left to recover. Britain owns most of the Middle East and likely would keep what they held. France might have to turn over their holdings to Britain. The Ottoman Empire would still be finished.
    German overseas colonies likely would mostly be British. I think East Africa might be an exception due to the success of von Lettow there. I would think that national pride might force retention as part of the peace. There might be other locations too but these are not of major importance.
    The dynamic of the post war naval world would change with Germany remaining a major player.
    Most importantly for Germany much of Eastern Europe and Western Russia remain in their hands. Poland might not be a state but rather part of a Greater Germany. Even the Baltic states, Belorussia, and Ukraine might be part of a German "empire" in such a post war world.
    I'm sure Britain would object and try to make many of these locations independent states. Germany might agree to that.
    Russia comes out of the war greatly weakened. Austria-Hungary still collapses in a post war serious of revolutions and such. It is likely that the Germans step in and stabilize things along with making much of the outcome puppet states of Germany.
    Germany retains the Alsace-Lorraine regions in France greatly weakening that nation's ability to fend off a rematch with Germany.
    There would still be an economic depression world wide but without the massive onerous repatriations put on Germany, and one might assume the Germans don't require these of France and can't force them on Britain, that it is less devastating than the original was.

    In both you end up with a much stronger Germany, a much weaker Russia and France. It leaves Britain to try and form a close alliance with the US in particular recognizing that continental Europe is pretty much dominated by Germany now.
    Things in the Pacific could get strange too. Who would Germany back in that region? China is the most likely to see that. That would put the US and Japan more aligned in politics unless the Japanese went the militaristic route then they find themselves facing a three-way loose coalition of states: Britain, the US, and Germany all with greater resources than their own and one potentially as militaristic as they are.

    All-in-all there probably would still have been a rematch by mid to late century in any case.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Quelquechose View Post
      If Germany had won the war, the world would be incalculably different. I never cease to be amazed at how people only look at the pre-war trends and not at the facts.

      1. THE TURKISH ECONOMIC MIRACLE - The Ottomon Empire sat, unknowingly on 70% of the world's crude oil supply. Simply by not breaking up, the Ottomon Empire would have become the "Turkish Economic Miracle" Even if they had not exploited their oil monopoly, Turkish oil would represent about 4% of world GDP. However, glooking at parallels of history, where a nation has a monopoly on a non-replaceable commodity, one would expect a barrel of crude to sit at about $1,500 by 2013. This astronomic flood of revenue would have made Turkey the economic giant of the world by 1930 and Constantinople would have replaced New York and London as the finance capital of the world. With this sort of domination of finance, culture would have followed. CNN (Constantinople News Network) would have become the world's number one news service. And as Hollywood struggled to churn out a couple of low budget kitchen sink dramas each year on the big screen, the movie stars of Izmir would be making big budget blockbusters like "Independence Day" where the villain was always the sleasy Australian terrorist. And if you wanted to see a film or TV not subtitled in English, you have to buy one of the specialist channels for minorities that have a magazine programme for English speakers at about 3am in the morning.

      5. FRANCE, THE "SICK MAN OF EUROPE" - Stripped of Gascony and parts of northern France to create a new Belgium, its colonies in West Africa by Spain and with f**k all navy left, France's colonies would go into revolt the same way that Spain's in South America did after its defeat by Napoleon.
      Welcome to the forums Quelquechose.
      You present some very refreshing points here, especially re Ottoman Empire.
      One point I cannot readily follow is France's
      BoRG

      You may not be interested in War, but War is interested in You - Leon Trotski, June 1919.

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by Quelquechose View Post
        If Germany had won the war, the world would be incalculably different. I never cease to be amazed at how people only look at the pre-war trends and not at the facts.

        1. THE TURKISH ECONOMIC MIRACLE - The Ottomon Empire sat, unknowingly on 70% of the world's crude oil supply. Simply by not breaking up, the Ottomon Empire would have become the "Turkish Economic Miracle" Even if they had not exploited their oil monopoly, Turkish oil would represent about 4% of world GDP. However, glooking at parallels of history, where a nation has a monopoly on a non-replaceable commodity, one would expect a barrel of crude to sit at about $1,500 by 2013. This astronomic flood of revenue would have made Turkey the economic giant of the world by 1930 and Constantinople would have replaced New York and London as the finance capital of the world. With this sort of domination of finance, culture would have followed. CNN (Constantinople News Network) would have become the world's number one news service. And as Hollywood struggled to churn out a couple of low budget kitchen sink dramas each year on the big screen, the movie stars of Izmir would be making big budget blockbusters like "Independence Day" where the villain was always the sleasy Australian terrorist. And if you wanted to see a film or TV not subtitled in English, you have to buy one of the specialist channels for minorities that have a magazine programme for English speakers at about 3am in the morning.

        4. GERMANY'S BITTER SWEET VICTORY - Most ordinary Germans would view that they had 'won the war, but lost the peace". Sure, Germany had picked up much of Belgium and Poland and had independent friendly states like Latvia to trade with, but the cost of bringing these into the 20th Century and the skyrocketing of crude oil prices would pretty much crush German industry, leaving it in an endless recession that it just cant seem to shake off.
        I don't know about an economic miracle per se, but Germany would have finished the Berlin to Baghdad Railway and enabled/Financed the Turkish economic recovery to a large degree. Germany needed access to the Middle East and was already working this prior to the war.
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baghdad_Railway

        Haydarpasha station in Constantinople, built prior to the war:
        http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/...y-S_46966a.jpg
        "Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics"
        -Omar Bradley
        "Not everyone who studies logistics is a professional logistician, and there is no way to understand when you don't know what you don't know."
        -Anonymous US Army logistician

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        • #34
          There seems to be a vein of misconception running through this whole thread.
          That is the apparent belief that the American Expeditionary Force stopped the Germans in early 18.
          The only bearing the AEF had on the Kaiserschlacht was the desire on the German part to see it through as soon as possible before the Americans became field effective.

          The overwhelming majority of the German onslaught fell on British held lines.
          I believe that there may have been two US Inf Divs attached somewhere and these fought just as well as anybody else but "Black Jacks" US Army as a whole played virtually no part in stemming the German offensive.

          That came later when the Allies had weathered the storm,the Doughboys were at the forefront of many offensives and performed very well indeed.

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by flash View Post
            There seems to be a vein of misconception running through this whole thread.
            You have realised that there is an almost 10 year time gap between post #28 and #29?
            BoRG

            You may not be interested in War, but War is interested in You - Leon Trotski, June 1919.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by Major Sennef View Post
              You have realised that there is an almost 10 year time gap between post #28 and #29?
              I guess some things will never change.
              Signing out.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by Major Sennef View Post
                You have realised that there is an almost 10 year time gap between post #28 and #29?
                Well some of us only joined up recently - out of respect to Uncle Sam's lateness into both WWs don't you know?

                The truth is that by 1918 all major belligerent armies were pretty much worn down, the Axis forces a little more than the Allies. If Pershing and his Newbie Army of some 2 million doughboys - all but about half a dozen or so divisions enjoying the fleshpots of the likes of Paris or still in training - had not been there the Axis would likely have still sued for peace, perhaps in 1919, and got a more equitable and palatable [to them] armistice package.

                Pershing's guys were in effect a potential that the Axis realised they could not hope to counter at that stage in the conflict.

                Well that's my tuppence/10 cents worth anyways.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by Wooden Wonder View Post
                  Well some of us only joined up recently - out of respect to Uncle Sam's lateness into both WWs don't you know?

                  The truth is that by 1918 all major belligerent armies were pretty much worn down, the Axis forces a little more than the Allies. If Pershing and his Newbie Army of some 2 million doughboys - all but about half a dozen or so divisions enjoying the fleshpots of the likes of Paris or still in training - had not been there the Axis would likely have still sued for peace, perhaps in 1919, and got a more equitable and palatable [to them] armistice package.

                  Pershing's guys were in effect a potential that the Axis realised they could not hope to counter at that stage in the conflict.

                  Well that's my tuppence/10 cents worth anyways.
                  All fair and reasonable. Just be careful with the terminology - there was no 'Axis' in WW1, indeed two of the three major Axis powers from WW2 fought against Germany during WW1.
                  Signing out.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Full Monty View Post
                    All fair and reasonable. Just be careful with the terminology - there was no 'Axis' in WW1, indeed two of the three major Axis powers from WW2 fought against Germany during WW1.
                    Yes, I was a bit 'bushed after a restless night and couldn't be bothered to list all of Germany's allies - sloppy I know, and a shorthand reference that was ahead of the timeline.

                    Oh, and yes I am aware of the volte-face of Italy and Japan come WWII.
                    Last edited by Wooden Wonder; 04 Jan 14, 13:03.

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Wooden Wonder View Post
                      Yes, I was a bit 'bushed after a restless night and couldn't be bothered to list all of Germany's allies - sloppy I know, and a shorthand reference that was ahead of the timeline.

                      Oh, and yes I am aware of the volte-face of Italy and Japan come WWII.
                      I know, your meaning was pretty clear but you're aware what we're like when it comes to pedantry. If you want a shorthand reference for 'Germany and its allies' I'd suggest 'CP' ('Central Powers'). It's rather like referring to 'Britain and its allies' as 'The Allies' - yes we know what it means but up until the USA gets involved and Russia drops out 'The Entente' is technically more accurate.
                      Signing out.

                      Comment

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