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What if Italy did not enter WW2

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  • #16
    I suppose Franco/Spain is a good example. However, he eventually got toppled rather quickly, well quickly as far as toppling fascist dictators go.

    Maybe if Spain had oil, the allies would be more interested in 'spreading Democracy" there.

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    • #17
      The big winner from Italian neutrality, apart from Italy herself of course, would be Britain, the big loser would be Japan.

      The Mediterranean theatre was by far the most deadly to the RN losing a Battleship, two Carriers, 20 Cruisers, 67 Destroyers and 45 Submarines sunk of major vessels only and many times this in damaged, mostly in the years 1940 to 1942.

      Japanese success in Malaya and Burma is inconceivable without the Mediterranean war.


      As for the Germans they'd probably do slightly better in Barbarossa than historical but not enough to take Moscow - logistics was their undoing not lack of troops and tanks.
      1942 would be the critical year, a couple of extra Panzer Corps could make Uranus a sticky proposition but OTOH the Germans still have to make up the numbers of infantry with the missing Italian 8th Army ...

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      • #18
        great idea.

        Originally posted by Paul Maud'dib View Post
        Here's a totally bizarre notion. If Italy had stayed "neutral" nudge nudge wink wink, they could have made a nice secure place to produce war materials out of touch from Allied reprisal.

        Not that Italy had a great industry then, but not being bombed wouldn't have hurt either. Italy sure could have made a lot of coin selling war materials as well. Sure wouldn't have hurt Mussolini's popularity either. A healthy economy rarely makes people unhappy.

        Most of Italy's early actions in the war really didn't do anything of real use for Italy, only screwed up the timing of operations for the Germans, and got them wrapped up in campaigns that went nowhere.
        Great Idea, worked for the Swiss
        God Save The Republic.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Gooner View Post
          The big winner from Italian neutrality, apart from Italy herself of course, would be Britain, the big loser would be Japan.

          The Mediterranean theatre was by far the most deadly to the RN losing a Battleship, two Carriers, 20 Cruisers, 67 Destroyers and 45 Submarines sunk of major vessels only and many times this in damaged, mostly in the years 1940 to 1942.

          Japanese success in Malaya and Burma is inconceivable without the Mediterranean war.
          Note that many of those subs lost inthe Med were long range deep diving models designed specifically for use in the Pacific. 20+ of those with good torpedos operating against the Japanese cargo fleet in early 1942 would have been 'significant'.


          Originally posted by Gooner View Post
          As for the Germans they'd probably do slightly better in Barbarossa than historical but not enough to take Moscow - logistics was their undoing not lack of troops and tanks..
          Well, the italans could sell the Germans all those trucks they are not throwing away in a African war.

          Originally posted by Gooner View Post
          1942 would be the critical year, a couple of extra Panzer Corps could make Uranus a sticky proposition
          Does this lead to the : WI Rommel in Russia thread?

          Originally posted by Gooner View Post
          ... but OTOH the Germans still have to make up the numbers of infantry with the missing Italian 8th Army ...
          No third party to place between the fueding Hungarians and Rumanians!

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          • #20
            actually heard that one of Rommel's chiefs of Staff staff in 1944 (cant' find his name) said before the war "whoever side will be allied with Italy will loose the war"!
            "Freedom cannot exist without discipline, self-discipline, and rights cannot exist without duties. Those who do not observe their duties do not deserve their rights."--Oriana Fallaci

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            • #21
              If the Italians had stayed out of the war and the campaign in North Africa had not happened is it not possible that the Americans who saw the Pacific war as being the primary theater would have won the day?

              If American support in the European theater was limited to a strategic bomber force is it possible that a realistic invasion of France would have been possible only after the USA had finished matters in the Pacific.

              Is it possible even that the conflict between Germany and the Soviet Union would have been concluded one way or another before the British and American forces had been gathered for a D-Day assault?

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              • #22
                The American Military might have seen the Pcafic as more important but would FDR.

                Unlike the small, disunited American delegation, the well-prepared British operated as a cohesive team and presented a united front. President Roosevelt, still attracted to the Mediterranean, had not yet made the notion of a big cross-Channel attack his own. A striking illustration of the want of understanding between the White House and the military staffs came in connection with the unconditional surrender formula to which he and Churchill publicly committed themselves at Casablanca. The President had simply informed the JCS of his intention to support that concept as the basic Allied aim in the war at a meeting at the White House shortly before the conference. But no study of the meaning of this formula for the conduct of the war was made by either the Army or the Joint Staff before or during the conference--nor did the President encourage his military advisers to do so.

                To the American military staff it appeared at the time that the long experience of the British in international negotiations had carried the day. Keenly disappointed, Brig. Gen. Albert C. Wedemeyer, General Marshall's principal adviser at Casablanca, wrote: ". . . we lost our shirts and . . . are now committed to a subterranean umbilicus operation in midsummer. . . . we came, we listened, and we were conquered."
                http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AMH/AMH/AMH-21.html

                It is about a different strategy but FDR was presuaded. I do not think FDR saw the Japanese as a threat to American way of life, but he did feel fasicist were. The Japanese would just kill Americans but the Nazi's would make them into something other then americans.
                FoxNEWS "The World is unfair and we are running scared"

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by PatBC View Post
                  It is about a different strategy but FDR was presuaded. I do not think FDR saw the Japanese as a threat to American way of life, but he did feel fasicist were. The Japanese would just kill Americans but the Nazi's would make them into something other then americans.
                  Plus, in the end I think FDR knew that the Japanese would be more willing to accept a conditional peace than the Germans (that kinda was the Japanese goal with Pearl Harbor after all).

                  But if the Germans were already deep in Russian territory in late '41 (aka had Moscow, Soviets were on the verge of or already were defeated) then Germany might not declare war on the US, which would force the US into a Japan First strategy.

                  The odds of Germany defeating the Soviets in 1941 would be quite low.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by daemonofdecay View Post
                    Plus, in the end I think FDR knew that the Japanese would be more willing to accept a conditional peace than the Germans (that kinda was the Japanese goal with Pearl Harbor after all).

                    But if the Germans were already deep in Russian territory in late '41 (aka had Moscow, Soviets were on the verge of or already were defeated) then Germany might not declare war on the US, which would force the US into a Japan First strategy.

                    The odds of Germany defeating the Soviets in 1941 would be quite low.
                    Agreed If Japan was allowed to stay in China they would have not gone to war with the west. Japan's goal was China not the Pacific
                    FoxNEWS "The World is unfair and we are running scared"

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