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WHATIF: The Republicans Won in the Spanish Civil War?

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  • #16
    Theres a lot of variables identified here. Particularly the nature of the "Republican" government, and in how damaged Spain is by the conflict.

    If the Spainish government is dominated by socialist and communist partys then it is possible Hitler will decide to 'clean up' Spain as he decided in the Balkans. Another consideration for a leftist government is that France was dominated by a right wing government in 1939-40. Many Republican refugees were confined to internment camps by the French due to their politics. After the war with Germany started more 'suspect' leftists were either sent to these camps or rejected for service in the French forces.

    This suggests the French governemt of 1939-40 would be suspicious of and uncooperative with a far left Spanish governemnt. If Spain has a centrist government then cooperation is more likely.

    If the Republicans quickly win the civil war then we can assume there is not much economic devastation. However the Spanish mllitary was not very strong to begain with and the economy under the best circunstances could not support the sort of large well equipped army or air force that could really add much to the war in 1940 or 41. Later with US industry Spain could provide the manpower for a competitive army, but in 1940 it would not have the weapons or money.

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    • #17
      Simply imagine that the powers reacted as they would to-day. Franco was rebel, attacking a legitimate government. He would have been condemned, help would have gone immediately to the legitimate government of Spain, and the rebellion would have been crushed. An International tribunal would have condemned Franco and his bunch and Spain would hav evolved into something like the French Republic: conservative gentlemen who pass social programs and try to keep taxes low.
      Such a government, or political class, would have helped France in any way they could, for example with their quite large navy, and likely Mussolini would have kept quiet.
      In fact, there might have been no was at all, with a negotiated settlement for Czechoslovakia and Poland.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Vergennes View Post
        ....
        In fact, there might have been no was[r] at all, with a negotiated settlement for Czechoslovakia and Poland.
        That would have been nice, but I doubt that a victory in Spain would have stopped Adolf from his pursuit of lebenstrasse.

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        • #19
          Hitler would have intervened to put Franco in power anyway, so the only difference is a greater loss of life in the end, and then the Republicans would have another war to fight. Spain would still stay out of the fights though, and the rest of WWII would have pretty gone like it did.
          http://chickencrap.com/images/1472.jpg

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          • #20
            Anyone have any data on the ammount of military supplies the British, French and other democracys blocked from reaching the Republican government? The French had tenatively approved a large shipment of supply through its territory in 1938, then impounded the material collected in France. Other batches of war material were ordered by the Republican government, but it was nearly impossible to obtain export licences from the democratic governments, or transfer it through the shipping embargos and Facist naval blockade.

            As it was the Republicans held out for two years with just what the USSR sent. How much would have been available from elsewhere had the poicy of thedomocratic nations been different?

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            • #21
              That's a good question Carl. I don't have this info sadly, but maybe Cmde. Slavyanski does.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
                Anyone have any data on the ammount of military supplies the British, French and other democracys blocked from reaching the Republican government? The French had tenatively approved a large shipment of supply through its territory in 1938, then impounded the material collected in France. Other batches of war material were ordered by the Republican government, but it was nearly impossible to obtain export licences from the democratic governments, or transfer it through the shipping embargos and Facist naval blockade.

                As it was the Republicans held out for two years with just what the USSR sent. How much would have been available from elsewhere had the poicy of thedomocratic nations been different?
                I cannot say with certainty, but one thing is for sure, the Republic had the money to pay for it, yet they weren't allowed to buy weapons legally.

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