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Republicans defeat Nationalists in the Spanish Civil War

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  • #16
    I doubt Franco himself would make much difference. & the 'self policing' thing was one of the errors Napoleon (and others) made when he blitzed Spain. I really think this assumption of docile Spaniards (or Portuguese) being easily kept in line by German puppets is not a realistic scenario. The three divsions of Germans proposed does not compare well with the size of the garrisons in the other occupied nations in 1940 & 1941.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
      I doubt Franco himself would make much difference. & the 'self policing' thing was one of the errors Napoleon (and others) made when he blitzed Spain. I really think this assumption of docile Spaniards (or Portuguese) being easily kept in line by German puppets is not a realistic scenario. The three divsions of Germans proposed does not compare well with the size of the garrisons in the other occupied nations in 1940 & 1941.
      Well, even if the Republicans won and defeated the Nationalists, I doubt there would be no more pro-fascist Spainiards left. I bet they could still raise enough men to police themselves.

      The only problem would be the increased number of anti-fascist partisans in the nation that would operate despite Spain/Germany's best efforts, and these might prove to be troublesome to the German forces operating out of Spain. SAS landing in Spain to work with partisans to attack German airbase in Gibraltar, for example?


      "(mumble). . .you fair ladies of Spain. . .(mumble)"

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      • #18
        My only exposure to the Spanish Civil war is from George Orwell's 'Homage to Catalonia'. Form his writings it seems almost impossible to for the Republicans to win the war. There were so many groups and divisions that it seems almost imposiible that any kind of coherent military action was possible at all. Orwell tells of his experiences of fighting in the streets bteween different groups. But assuming they managed to put their differences aside long enough to defeat the Nationalists then I think Spain would have just gone from Civil War straight into Civil War. As for the impact on WW2, I don't think there would have been much. Hitler never occupied Southern France, would there be any thing to benefit from wading into the mess that would have been Spain. OK, Gibraltar, but at the time of the invasion of France, the North African Theater was not really a big issue for the Germans.
        Wolster

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Wolster View Post
          My only exposure to the Spanish Civil war is from George Orwell's 'Homage to Catalonia'. Form his writings it seems almost impossible to for the Republicans to win the war. There were so many groups and divisions that it seems almost imposiible that any kind of coherent military action was possible at all. Orwell tells of his experiences of fighting in the streets bteween different groups. But assuming they managed to put their differences aside long enough to defeat the Nationalists then I think Spain would have just gone from Civil War straight into Civil War. As for the impact on WW2, I don't think there would have been much. Hitler never occupied Southern France, would there be any thing to benefit from wading into the mess that would have been Spain. OK, Gibraltar, but at the time of the invasion of France, the North African Theater was not really a big issue for the Germans.
          One correction. Germany did occupy Southern France. In November 1942 Vichy territory was invaded and the Vichy military nuetralized. By the end of the year two entire German armys were established in southern France.

          There was a great deal of infighting amoung the coalition that formed the Nationalists. Less is popularly know about it due to the suppression & censorship by Francos group once they consolidated power. From the accounts I found of the internal politics of the Nationalist from 1937 to 1939 a portion of the assasinations, disapperances, arrests, in nationalist controled territory were aimed at settling internal disagreements rather than 'cleaning up' Republican sympathisers. Francos group was ultimatly more effective at extablishing dicipline & control than any other on either side.

          The best chance the Republicans had of winning on their own was very early on, in the fist few months. Once Italian aid kicked in the rebel factions gained too much strength, and after German aid arrived the Rebulicans were in a tough situation.

          The slim second chance for the Republicans was intervention by Britian or France. If Brtian was involved in intervention, then there is a possibility that British soldiers might still be present in small numbers after France fell in June 1940.

          Odds are at least some pro facist Spainiards would begain another revolt in the hope of German aid & intervention.
          Last edited by Carl Schwamberg; 15 Apr 07, 16:07.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
            One correction. Germany did occupy Southern France. In November 1942 Vichy territory was invaded and the Vichy military nuetralized. By the end of the year two entire German armys were established in southern France.

            There was a great deal of infighting amoung the coalition that formed the Nationalists. Less is popularly know about it due to the suppression & censorship by Francos group once they consolidated power. From the accounts I found of the internal politics of the Nationalist from 1937 to 1939 a portion of the assasinations, disapperances, arrests, in nationalist controled territory were aimed at settling internal disagreements rather than 'cleaning up' Republican sympathisers. Francos group was ultimatly more effective at extablishing dicipline & control than any other on either side.
            So if the group hadn't been as effective, we might have had a Republican victory due to their opponents disorganization and infighting? Interesting.

            The best chance the Republicans had of winning on their own was very early on, in the fist few months. Once Italian aid kicked in the rebel factions gained too much strength, and after German aid arrived the Rebulicans were in a tough situation.
            Very true. Alternatively, we may have had a situation where the UK/French/etc. decide to send supplies to the Republicans, and/or the Germans/Italians don't, giving the Republicans the advantage.

            The slim second chance for the Republicans was intervention by Britian or France. If Brtian was involved in intervention, then there is a possibility that British soldiers might still be present in small numbers after France fell in June 1940.
            So might the Dunkirk evacuation have been avoided, then? Instead of being forced to the coast, the English try to head south and cross over into the neutral Spain. Hitler demands the Spanish eject the British, and the Rep.s refuse due to the support the UK gave them in the civil war and the support they currently get. Hitler, furious, orders and invasion of Spain to shut down the de-facto allied base there (maybe the UK/French are opperating planes out of Spain?), and then we have the Germans in control of Spain. They follow this up with establishing Franco or some other man as the leader of a puppet Spain.

            Of course, this is only possible if the British were able to make their way southwards, and if I remember correctly Dunkirk was because the Germans got beneath the UK and forced them to the coast.

            Odds are at least some pro facist Spainiards would begain another revolt in the hope of German aid & intervention.
            Most likely. I imagine it would be similiar to how the Croatians/Slovakians became 'independent' under Germany.

            Franco's Frankfurters: The Hot New Berlin Resteraunt.

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            • #21
              "Of course, this is only possible if the British were able to make their way southwards, and if I remember correctly Dunkirk was because the Germans got beneath the UK and forced them to the coast."

              There were several divsions of British scattered about France post Dunkirk. Most were sucessfully evacuated from the weatern ports as the situation collapsed. Which led to further accusations from the French that the Brits were abandoning them. If Spain had been friendly perhaps part of them might have motored south? More likely small parts of the French army would have crossed the Pyrenees to escape German PoW camps.

              "Most likely. I imagine it would be similiar to how the Croatians/Slovakians became 'independent' under Germany."

              The Basque seem always ready to break away from the Spainards. The Andalusians more or less had their own state during the civil war, and made their own accomodation with the Nationalists as Madrid fell in 1939.

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              • #22
                One aspect that doesn't seem to have been touched upon here is the possibility of the Axis powers to take, not the Atlantic Spanish islands, but the Mediterranean ones - Ibiza or Formentera. From there Gibraltar would be in much better "range". Even an airborne attack could be staged from there.

                For the Germans to drive down the Spanish East coast, through hostile territory to attack Gibraltar, would be suicide. Or very costly. After all, the word "guerilla" was born in Spain.
                Saving MacArthur - a book series - https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0...ies_rw_dp_labf
                River Wide, Ocean Deep - Operation Sealion - https://www.amazon.com/product-revie...owViewpoints=1

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