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  • Sealion Failed

    All this sealion talk has got me thinking about the consequences of Germany trying it. The outcome is undoubtly collossal failure for the Germans. But where does Germany go after failing?

    What would the consequences be if Germany had tried Sealion under the historical conditions in September 1940 and it failed.

    For the purposes of the discussion, assume Hitler orders the attack on September 10, 1940 and it goes in September 21 to 25. The consequences are:
    1) the German surface navy is obliterated
    2) the Luftwaffe loses 300 more fighters, 400 bombers and 100 transports with 80% of the aircrew KIA/captured
    3) the German first wave of 8 infantry, 1 mountain, 1 parachute divisions , 4 tank battalions and associated corps troops is destroyed in total (big chunk surrendering when they run out of supplies)
    4) the vast majority of the Rhine barges committed (1000 out of the 1200+) are lost and over 1/2 of the merchant ships are sunk as well

    The English would also take heavy casualties defeating the invasion. Say 4 cruisers, 20 destroyers, 100+ smaller auxillery ships sunk , 300 fighters and 200 bombers (most aircrew recovered though). Several infantry divisions would be badly mauled and many home guard unit destroyed.

    So its October 1940 and Sealion has just been decisively defeated. What next for Germany, Italy and the commonwealth?

  • #2
    Originally posted by AdrianE View Post
    So its October 1940 and Sealion has just been decisively defeated. What next for Germany, Italy and the commonwealth?
    Hitler gets assassinated and the Red Army overruns Western Europe in six weeks.
    Signing out.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Full Monty View Post
      Hitler gets assassinated and the Red Army overruns Western Europe in six weeks.
      Not likely, I don't think Stalin was interested at that time to do anything
      nor did he have the Blitz tactics. Most likely Hitler would have postponed
      any Russian invasion, maybe pulled back from North Africa or mediterranean.
      Assassination not likely either as we saw there were 3 failed attemps.
      Life is what happens to you when your busy making other plans! Lennon - www.lufttiger.com

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Full Monty View Post
        Hitler gets assassinated
        By whom? Is it an army led coup or one of Hitler's henchmen who does him in?

        Things to ponder:

        do the British still sent reinforcements to Egypt or are they just delayed?
        do the Italians still get badly beaten in Egypt and nearly run out of North Africa?
        if so, do the Germans still send the DAK?
        does a crushing German defeat have political consequences in Moscow, Washington or Tokyo?
        do the Italians still go after Greece?
        does the Balkan campaign still happen?
        do the Germans still try Barbarossa in 1941?

        Comment


        • #5
          if that happens. Germany goes for negotiated peace with reasonable terms (germany keeps Danzig corrdor, parts of Alsace and Lorraine, but that's it). Britain, exhausted but victorious, happily accepts!

          then everything else after that depends on Japan and the Pacific, if any moves there. and of course what Soviet Union does. probably nothing there as well.

          perhaps a less ambitious Hitler succeeds into making Germany a power house, tones down racial propaganda, etc. and a very short, "bloddless" ww2.
          "Freedom cannot exist without discipline, self-discipline, and rights cannot exist without duties. Those who do not observe their duties do not deserve their rights."--Oriana Fallaci

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          • #6
            Piero if what you are sugesting happened I can see another war in Europe within 15 years.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Engineer 1888 View Post
              Piero if what you are sugesting happened I can see another war in Europe within 15 years.

              oh very possibly. but it is almost impossible to say what form or whose nations and ideologies would pitch against whom (my bet is everybody vs. Soviet Union, especially as Nazism would not survive long after peace - at least in its form. also Nazism in 1940 was far from the nazism of the Drang Nach Osten years of 1942-1945)
              "Freedom cannot exist without discipline, self-discipline, and rights cannot exist without duties. Those who do not observe their duties do not deserve their rights."--Oriana Fallaci

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by lufttiger View Post
                Not likely, I don't think Stalin was interested at that time to do anything
                nor did he have the Blitz tactics. Most likely Hitler would have postponed
                any Russian invasion, maybe pulled back from North Africa or mediterranean.
                Assassination not likely either as we saw there were 3 failed attemps.
                I think Hitler's credibility with the military would have sunk very low after a failed Sealion, especially as many were against mounting such an operation. With this in mind I could see the Nazis, who weren't averse to a bit of political violence, bumping Hitler off and replacing him with a more pliable figurehead.

                The Red Army was well equipped and with Germany in turmoil could have overrun the weakened Germans very quickly. Stalin's great fear was that of a unified West invading the USSR over the Polish plains. Being the opportunist he was and knowing the losses the Germans had suffered, he would have taken his chance.
                Signing out.

                Comment


                • #9
                  The only way i see it possible for the removal of Hitler is that his
                  replacement was a person with great chrisma and the people loved.
                  I Don't know if such an individual existed at that time?
                  He had such a grip on the people of Germany, that he could do no wrong.
                  Even when the russians were knocking at Berlin's gate, they still would
                  die for him.

                  As for the red Army, i would agree with you that they were well equipped, but
                  remember Stalin pruged the officers core, so probably not well led.
                  Also the Fins were able to stop them earlier.
                  Life is what happens to you when your busy making other plans! Lennon - www.lufttiger.com

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                  • #10
                    I don't see Germany as being crippled by a failed Sealion attempt, instead they would have paused, taken stock and realised just how vulnerable the Med was to German Supremacy...........

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Full Monty View Post
                      I think Hitler's credibility with the military would have sunk very low after a failed Sealion, especially as many were against mounting such an operation. With this in mind I could see the Nazis, who weren't averse to a bit of political violence, bumping Hitler off and replacing him with a more pliable figurehead.
                      I could see the Army bumping him off, but not the Nazis. The diadochi simply wouldn't have supported each other in the endeavour.
                      Colonel Summers' widely quoted critique of US strategy in the Vietnam War is having a modest vogue...it is poor history, poor strategy, and poor Clausewitz to boot - Robet Komer, Survival, 27:2, p. 94.

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                      • #12
                        1. do the British still sent reinforcements to Egypt or are they just delayed?

                        Delayed. Losses would be significant, and this battle could drag on for a couple months.

                        2. do the Italians still get badly beaten in Egypt and nearly run out of North Africa?

                        They get beaten. Not sure if the Brits had the trucks ect.. to support a campaign on to Tripoli in 1940.

                        3. if so, do the Germans still send the DAK?

                        Yes. Sealion would not asorb more than pz div worth of AFV & trucks. Much more serious would be losses to the Luftwaffe over Britian.

                        4. does a crushing German defeat have political consequences in Moscow, Washington or Tokyo?

                        The sight of Britan fighting for survival would galvinize the Anglophiles in the US & embarass the isolationists. As the Germans were driven from England news reports about 'nazi atrocities' would nuetralize the facist sympathizers & pro Germans in the US. I dont see this changing much for Stalin. The Japanese will take a close look at British naval losses.

                        5. do the Italians still go after Greece?

                        Tough call. I'd make a wild guess yes

                        6. does the Balkan campaign still happen?

                        If the political events fall out the same way. the intrigues & muddled thinking that led to the Italian/Greek war and the changing alignment of Yugoslavia were not set in stone.

                        7. do the Germans still try Barbarossa in 1941?

                        The Luftwaffe is going to short a lot of planes & its best pilots from a three or four month long campaign over Britian. And the Wehrmacht will have to rebuild a dozen or so of some of its formerly best infantry divsions. It might make more sense to make a try at dominating the Med while the Brits are licking their wounds. If you dont attack the USSR then the residual Luftwaffe has enough combat power to influence the Med.

                        Of course if Sea Lion flops in the first week, then the Luftwaffe might not be so badly attritted. & Barbarosa may still be viable.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
                          4. does a crushing German defeat have political consequences in Moscow, Washington or Tokyo?

                          The sight of Britan fighting for survival would galvinize the Anglophiles in the US & embarass the isolationists. As the Germans were driven from England news reports about 'nazi atrocities' would nuetralize the facist sympathizers & pro Germans in the US. I dont see this changing much for Stalin. The Japanese will take a close look at British naval losses.
                          US Ambassador Kennedy was intensely anti-British and this might have given him ammunition in saying "I told you so". Even if he was able to exert any political pressure on the politicians in the states to stay out of the war, Roosevelt was so determined to get us into the war that we would've eventually joined in anyways.

                          I think the Luftwaffe would have been severely depleted and the already low number of air transports would have precluded any operation on Crete.
                          If you can't set a good example, be a glaring warning.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by AdrianE View Post
                            For the purposes of the discussion, assume Hitler orders the attack on September 10, 1940 and it goes in September 21 to 25. The consequences are:
                            1) the German surface navy is obliterated
                            2) the Luftwaffe loses 300 more fighters, 400 bombers and 100 transports with 80% of the aircrew KIA/captured
                            3) the German first wave of 8 infantry, 1 mountain, 1 parachute divisions , 4 tank battalions and associated corps troops is destroyed in total (big chunk surrendering when they run out of supplies)
                            4) the vast majority of the Rhine barges committed (1000 out of the 1200+) are lost and over 1/2 of the merchant ships are sunk as well

                            The English would also take heavy casualties defeating the invasion. Say 4 cruisers, 20 destroyers, 100+ smaller auxillery ships sunk , 300 fighters and 200 bombers (most aircrew recovered though). Several infantry divisions would be badly mauled and many home guard unit destroyed.

                            So its October 1940 and Sealion has just been decisively defeated. What next for Germany, Italy and the commonwealth?

                            1) With the Kreigsmarine gone, the British/French invade Norway in spring of 1941.
                            2) British air attacks on Germany increase to take advantage of the Luftwaffe's weakness.
                            3) Peace proposals from the British for Germany to return all captured territories is turned down by Hitler.
                            4) German economy is ruined by the absence of the lost Rhine river barges. Germany's inland waterways were an important part of her transportation system.
                            Scientists have announced they've discovered a cure for apathy. However no one has shown the slightest bit of interest !!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Itsa tough call without numbers at hand, but I susoect the additional losses of the Luftwaffe, particularly in skilled pilots would be crippling. What this seems to do is accelerate the condition of the Luftwaffe by 18 or 24 months. Unless Goering is replaced I cant see any effective remedy being taken.

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