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What if the Germans used u-boats as a supply vessels in Sealion

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  • #76
    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
    Let's hope they do, because with only 28 submarines to play with, you can't afford to have a single one of these convoys strafed.
    Let's hope those straffers don't get shot down by the LW and so on..
    This is not a real argument , just talking. I've considered that option and addressed it in previous posts. Try to concentrate on the important points.

    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
    Is this "destination" a beach, a port, or what? If it's a port, it'd have to be held by the Germans with the attendant risks of mining, artillery and bombing. If it's a beach, you're going to have a hell of a job manhandling tons of cargo up the sand.
    It may be either depending on the current reading of the RN positions by the LW. Again look the previous posts.

    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
    More spare submarines. Where are they coming from? I've asked this three times, and haven't got an answer yet.
    I allready answered that - there are 29 additional u-boats, which can be summoned from the Atlantic theater + ~100 italian subs.
    Total of 130 additional subs

    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
    You appear to ignore the main lesson of these games. Sealion, for the Germans in 1940, appears to be utterly unworkable. Even when presented with an entirely successful landing, they still can't beat the British. For the Germans to be able to win in 1940, they'd have had to be planning the war against the British since 1936, devoting their war effort to a power Hitler sees as a potential ally, not a threat.
    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
    This is a wargame that allowed 90,000 troops to land on an enemy coast in canal barges, with neither air nor naval superiority. I'd be a little sceptical of its judgement: after all, wargaming the German invasion that doesn't even reach England is like wargaming Bull Run if the South seceded peacefully.
    You either sceptical of the wargames designers expertise or promote them as a good source for 'main lessons' - it's time for you to decide - which is it?
    There is a saying: "You can't dance on two weddings at the same time!"


    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
    My thanks to johnbryan for fielding this one for me.
    If You had any separate correspondence with johnbryan you will have to elaborate on that.
    In any case my suspicion is that you actually didn't even know that the Italian subs were relatively easily crossing the Gibraltar and sinking allied ships in the Atlantic at that point. (Not a big wonder considering your knowledge of indicator loops...)
    The question how many was Musolini willing to spare is a good one, but I'll bet he could be convinced to give big portion of it at least for 2-3 months , since occupied Britain would mean Italy owns the mediteranean.

    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
    Remove half the U-Boats from the North Atlantic, that supply situation'll ease up considerably. Of course, the idea that if each submarine sinks 101 tons of supplies per day in the North Atlantic it's actually helping you more than if it delivers 100 tons per day in the Channel is clearly so risible you haven't entertained it for a second.
    I's important point. But did you entertain the thought that the Bismark was allready commisioned in aug and with the Home Fleet protecting the channel with all they've got it would be able to roam the atlantic (maybe accompanied by some other ships)
    According to history british considered german battleships MUCH more threatening than subs - so much in fact that convoys have been making u-turns when infoed that Tirpitz was seen in sea.
    Also british used many times more ships than Bismark (or Tirpitz) to contain that threat and hunt them.
    You also have the threat of up to 100 italian subs. - I sure wouldn't like to be on those convoys...

    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
    U-Boats travel considerably more slowly underwater. If they're going at 8 knots rather than 17 knots, all your carefully prepared estimates go out of the window.
    The home fleet and RAF cannot fill the whole 80000 square km of the channel with ships, which are continous threats - for this you need tens of thousands of ships and planes. Therefore there will be enough availabe surface time for the subs. (If you need exact math calculations I can provide it to you)

    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
    By 1939 it had only grown from 300 requisitioned trawlers to 400 with a Patrol Service personnel remaining at 434 skippers and 3,733 ratings. These trawlers were split thus, 200 to be used for minesweeping and the remaining 200 for patrol work.

    It's a rough estimate, of course, but it was never intended to be more than that: since you'd completely forgotten they existed, it was better than nothing. I'd expect the numbers to grow fairly rapidly from the beginning of the war due to the fact that requisition is much easier to accomplish than building new destroyers.
    There is no indication in your link that all of those had asdics.
    So I assume you just wrote that statement and thought it may past unchecked?
    The number of the asdic equiped patrol boats and trawlers in the whole navy was ~54 at the start of the war. That's for the entire RN - so my guess will be that even if they grow to 100 in 1940 part of them will still be somewhere else in the empre for a total of ~60 available. But 200?!
    They were also slow, badly equiped and with poorly trained crews.

    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
    How many of those 1200 ships are suitable for ASW? How many of those thousands of planes are fighters or bombers lumped into the total?
    They had the ability to strike anywhere in the Channel they chose, to pick their moment and fade away. They weren't stuck transporting cargo in a single route across the Channel.
    Only a couple...
    Do this exercise : count to 1200, then stop for a minute and count to 18. It will refresh your sense of proportion.




    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
    Oddly enough, they also bite the dust between Dover and Calais: other words, in the Channel outside the port chosen by the Kriegsmarine as their main invasion artery.


    Cheaper than U-Boats, though. If I were Churchill, I'd fill the Channel from end to end with them.
    As I've always stated according to the RMA games the landings are successful before the home fleet arrives in numbers - that means that if the huge amounts of barges could be moved then mine sweepers could clean the approaches too.

    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post

    I'll break it down into easily-manageable chunks.
    1) The Luftwaffe have less fighters capable of supporting Sealion than the RAF has fighters capable of opposing it.
    2) They also have to choose between supporting bomber attacks on airfields, railway lines and fixed defences, or protecting the invasion fleet.
    3) If they choose to support the bomber attacks, the Royal Navy will sink the invasion fleet.
    4a) If they choose to protect the invasion fleet, the unhampered RAF will beat them in the skies.
    4b) If the invasion fleet manages to land, it will lack air protection and cannot be resupplied.
    As I've stated previously - all of the above besides 4b) were dealt with in the Sandhurst wargames and the invasion landing was found to be completely possible.
    Those guys were experts in their field so and their conclusion is sound enough for our historical speculation.
    As to the 4b) part - if you havent read my previous posts in this thread then now is as good time as any.

    Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
    1) You have no Italian subs coming, as we've already discussed.
    2) You've over-estimated the speed of the submarines, since you're assuming they will hardly have to submerge.
    3) I think you're over-estimating the number of submarines, but since you won't give any definite answer to my questions I can't tell.
    4) I can't help but wonder whether 300 tons is a little too low, considering that an inactive Russian rifle division in 1943 requires 275 tons per day.
    5) You still haven't answered the questions I posed.
    One by one
    1) Yes it would, and no we didn't.
    2) I assumed they'l submerge 1/3 of the way on average - my estimates are not precise to the milimeter per second, but good enough.
    3) Until now I've tried to answer all your questions promplty - which one?
    4) inactive in what sense? Not fighting? Maybe for a month... German diviions in 6th army were managing to hold out for months FIGHTING on 25tons per day.
    5) You keep repeating that. But what questions?? I answer all your points.
    If you believe, you receive.
    If you doubt, you go without.

    Comment


    • #77
      Originally posted by leopold View Post
      Let's hope those straffers don't get shot down by the LW and so on..
      This is not a real argument , just talking. I've considered that option and addressed it in previous posts. Try to concentrate on the important points.
      It seems like a fairly important point to me. The Luftwaffe do not have air superiority, because it is impossible for them to establish it. Therefore, the British are going to be patrolling the Channel fairly frequently, and the U-Boats are going to be sitting ducks. Why do you think most submarines operate in the air gap between Greenland and Iceland?

      It may be either depending on the current reading of the RN positions by the LW. Again look the previous posts.
      So you have the choice I posted. A beach, with no transport links and no effective method of moving the supplies, or a port which is going to be filled with mines and continually bombed and shelled.

      I allready answered that - there are 29 additional u-boats, which can be summoned from the Atlantic theater + ~100 italian subs.
      Total of 130 additional subs
      So we're now moving the entire U-Boat fleet out of the Atlantic to support this logistic effort. This would have been the best news Churchill had ever heard.

      You either sceptical of the wargames designers expertise or promote them as a good source for 'main lessons' - it's time for you to decide - which is it?
      There is a saying: "You can't dance on two weddings at the same time!"
      I'm sceptical of the way they assumed the German invasion would work perfectly. This, however, reinforces my point: even when the balance is tipped in favour of the Germans, they still can't win. It's like saying that the "main lesson" that can be drawn from German training exercises for Sealion is that, even in broad daylight without opposition, they still can't land more than half their troops in the right place.

      If You had any separate correspondence with johnbryan you will have to elaborate on that.
      In any case my suspicion is that you actually didn't even know that the Italian subs were relatively easily crossing the Gibraltar and sinking allied ships in the Atlantic at that point. (Not a big wonder considering your knowledge of indicator loops...)
      Relatively easily? 27 boats make it through: two are sunk within two days by aircraft operating out of Gibraltar. As johnbryan says, they take a long time to dive, they're slow and they're ineffective.

      The question how many was Musolini willing to spare is a good one, but I'll bet he could be convinced to give big portion of it at least for 2-3 months , since occupied Britain would mean Italy owns the mediteranean.
      Not necessarily. Mussolini only agrees to support attacks on British trade, not to waste his subs in futile cargo-carrying missions. Furthermore, any say he might have in a peace deal between Germany and Britain will be limited, and such servility will do nothing to increase it.

      I's important point. But did you entertain the thought that the Bismark was allready commisioned in aug and with the Home Fleet protecting the channel with all they've got it would be able to roam the atlantic (maybe accompanied by some other ships)
      The only way the Bismarck would be roaming the Atlantic in August is if the Germans don't bother training the crew, running trials on the ship and completing her anti-aircraft battery. "Commissioned" does not mean "completed."

      Also british used many times more ships than Bismark (or Tirpitz) to contain that threat and hunt them.
      The Navy can afford to do this, though, because it's so much bigger than the Kriegsmarine.

      You also have the threat of up to 100 italian subs. - I sure wouldn't like to be on those convoys...
      Considering how poor the Italian submarines are, the fact that many are
      coastal submarines completely unsuited to Atlantic warfare, and the fact that you've withdrawn the entire U-Boat fleet from the Atlantic, I think I'd take my chances.

      There is no indication in your link that all of those had asdics.
      So I assume you just wrote that statement and thought it may past unchecked?
      The number of the asdic equiped patrol boats and trawlers in the whole navy was ~54 at the start of the war. That's for the entire RN - so my guess will be that even if they grow to 100 in 1940 part of them will still be somewhere else in the empre for a total of ~60 available. But 200?!
      They were also slow, badly equiped and with poorly trained crews.
      Very odd. I've just found a quote that says 165 destroyers, 34 small patrol craft and 20 trawlers with ASDIC at the beginning of WWII, and another that says 140 trawlers fitting out in September 1939 for antisubmarine duty. I think the jury will have to remain out on this one for a while. As for your criticism of the trawlers as being slow, poorly trained, etc: I'm sure the crew of U16 would disagree.

      Only a couple... Do this exercise : count to 1200, then stop for a minute and count to 18. It will refresh your sense of proportion.
      The 1200 includes minesweepers, cruisers, battleships, monitors and various assault ships. If you look specifically at anti-submarine ships, there are 51 destroyers and escorts in the east, and 85 in the west. Of the 12 U-Boats sunk- all in the west, all equipped with snorkels- 5 are destroyed by aircraft. All things considered, I don't think the Royal Navy would have done drastically worse in 1940.

      As I've always stated according to the RMA games the landings are successful before the home fleet arrives in numbers - that means that if the huge amounts of barges could be moved then mine sweepers could clean the approaches too.
      Precisely. The wargame assumed that the invasion through barges would work. Despite the fact they're short of 4,000 crew, despite the fact they can't make more than 3 knots, despite the fact that training in broad daylight from a mile offshore failed miserably, the organisers decided that the invasion would work. Can you really have much faith in their estimation of the ability of the German minesweepers?

      As I've stated previously - all of the above besides 4b) were dealt with in the Sandhurst wargames and the invasion landing was found to be completely possible.
      Those guys were experts in their field so and their conclusion is sound enough for our historical speculation.
      As to the 4b) part - if you havent read my previous posts in this thread then now is as good time as any.
      See above. Just because somebody's an "expert", doesn't make them right. Look at Hugh Trevor-Roper's authentication of the Hitler Diaries for proof of that.

      1) Yes it would, and no we didn't.
      You have perhaps 25 obsolescent Italian submarines, plus whatever scanty reinforcements make it through the Straits.

      2) I assumed they'l submerge 1/3 of the way on average - my estimates are not precise to the milimeter per second, but good enough.
      They're not, really. The disparity between surface speed and submerged speed, combined with the increased turnaround time from charging batteries and refilling air tanks, means that even a small increase in time spent underwater completely wrecks your figures.

      3) Until now I've tried to answer all your questions promplty - which one?
      I repeatedly asked you where your extra U-Boats were coming from: I now know you've removed them all from the Atlantic.

      4) inactive in what sense? Not fighting? Maybe for a month... German diviions in 6th army were managing to hold out for months FIGHTING on 25tons per day.
      German divisions in 6th Army were holding positions, not attacking. Mind you, if you view Stalingrad as a validation of the German supply system, then I guess having your U-Boats sunk in the Channel must be a success.

      5) You keep repeating that. But what questions?? I answer all your points.
      The questions that I posted literally immediately afterwards, and am going to do again.

      Originally posted by robcraufurd
      Do the Germans have naval and air superiority in the Channel? If so, why do they need submarines to carry cargo at all? If they don't, why are they launching the invasion in the first place?
      Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt

      Comment


      • #78
        Leopold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        Originally posted by leopold View Post
        What if after the first wave of German landings of Sealion, which according to war game experiments could have succeeded were followed by the Germans taking some ports and then using part of their U-boat fleet to provide supplies for the troops?
        You are asking this question to people who possess no creative thought patterns at all.

        I think it is a GOOD & Completely Doable Idea.

        Don't be discouraged because these Imperialists can't see or appreciate the Creative Genius Ideas that you possess.

        Comment


        • #79
          I am interested in the shipping containers. How do they achieve neutral buoyancy? If detached from the sub, do they sink of float? A 100 ton shipping container would be roughly 150' long by around 25'-30' wide, would this additional drag be a detriment to the sub? Would there be some directional control of the container, ie. if the sub stopped the container would have to also unless it risks hitting the sub. You realize 100 tons is 200,000 lbs or in transport terms, almost 3 full semi-truck loads.
          If you can't set a good example, be a glaring warning.

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by Duke William View Post
            You are asking this question to people who possess no creative thought patterns at all.

            I think it is a GOOD & Completely Doable Idea.

            Don't be discouraged because these Imperialists can't see or appreciate the Creative Genius Ideas that you possess.
            Imperialists? That's a hell of a generalisation there, buddy. Wouldn't it be more natural to call the guy who's trying to work out how to conquer Britain an imperialist?

            The U-Boat plan is only a good and doable idea if you can keep the Royal Navy out of the Channel and prevent Coastal Command from patrolling. If you can do that, you can protect enough merchant ships to make ordinary supply routes feasible. The amount of cargo U-Boats can carry is negligable in comparison.
            Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt

            Comment


            • #81
              Originally posted by Duke William View Post
              You are asking this question to people who possess no creative thought patterns at all.

              I think it is a GOOD & Completely Doable Idea.

              Don't be discouraged because these Imperialists can't see or appreciate the Creative Genius Ideas that you possess.
              Thanks for the support!

              It's nice that someone is fascinated by this idea as I am..
              If you believe, you receive.
              If you doubt, you go without.

              Comment


              • #82
                Originally posted by freightshaker View Post
                I am interested in the shipping containers. How do they achieve neutral buoyancy? If detached from the sub, do they sink of float? A 100 ton shipping container would be roughly 150' long by around 25'-30' wide, would this additional drag be a detriment to the sub? Would there be some directional control of the container, ie. if the sub stopped the container would have to also unless it risks hitting the sub. You realize 100 tons is 200,000 lbs or in transport terms, almost 3 full semi-truck loads.
                The container's will be filled with cargo in french port.
                By carefully distributing the weigth of the cargo container will be brought to almost neutral buyoncy. After it's sealed an additional detachable weight will be connected to it to submerge it. The level of submerging will be determined by that weight. A small reservour (1-2tons) will be attached to it as well. It will be part of the towing equipment and filled /empptied from water by the sub using long flexible pipe.
                The container will lower the subs speed, but since the drag is roughly proportional to the circumference and the length of the object (when they have the same profile) it will have ~6 times less drag than the sub's own hull.
                Therefore it will lower by my most pessimistic estimate no more than 30% of the sub's speed.
                This will be even less underwater since the first types of subs had significantly less streamlined underwater profile ( deck guns etc.) then such container would have.
                I don't think directional control will be needed since the sub will never have to stop by 'hitting brakes'. Unless switching to reverse trust the stopping will happen by the resistance of the water. At this tonnage (100 ton) the cargo will stop only after tens of meters. Still if the connection is done by 2 V shaped interconnected rods there'll be no possibility of the cargo actually hitting the boat.

                I currenlty had an idea that the container can be done by tying together a stack of several smaller 1meterx20meter containers. Those can be mass produced by 1meter pipes in germany and brought by train to french ports ,thus removing the neccessity to bring back the containers from england.
                Also such thinner container parts will be easier to drag to the shallow beaches(can be done by hand using a rope)
                If you believe, you receive.
                If you doubt, you go without.

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  It seems like a fairly important point to me. The Luftwaffe do not have air superiority, because it is impossible for them to establish it. Therefore, the British are going to be patrolling the Channel fairly frequently, and the U-Boats are going to be sitting ducks. Why do you think most submarines operate in the air gap between Greenland and Iceland?
                  I assume you mean the 2/3 of the way - when the u-boats are surfaced. Since when submerged they are undetectable from planes.
                  The forward part of their jorney may be timed to be in the night hours (in late september and october nights are longer than days at that altitude).
                  It will be practically impossible for a plane with no radar to find those thiny boats at night.
                  The returning part of the journey boats will have more freedom of maneuvering becouse there'll be no cargo.
                  They'll be able to dive and evade. Besides - what would be those RAF planes? Bombers? The british had very little bombers - they invested everything in fighters. Planes spending a lot of time in the air above the channel will be flying direclty in the LW hugs.
                  Also if those bombers are searching for u-boat needles in 80000square km
                  hay they are not bombing the invading force.

                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  So you have the choice I posted. A beach, with no transport links and no effective method of moving the supplies, or a port which is going to be filled with mines and continually bombed and shelled.
                  Once the supply is on the shore the part of each division, which
                  usually take care of logistics will do the moving of supplies using whatever means available- horses, maybe some trucks, captured british citizens.(although the last would be of somewhat dubious morality).
                  The ports of course will be more problematic, yet their advantage will be of attracting bigger RN and RAF forces.

                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  So we're now moving the entire U-Boat fleet out of the Atlantic to support this logistic effort. This would have been the best news Churchill had ever heard.
                  The question was where are the reserves coming from. Those need not be immediately summoned.


                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  I'm sceptical of the way they assumed the German invasion would work perfectly. This, however, reinforces my point: even when the balance is tipped in favour of the Germans, they still can't win. It's like saying that the "main lesson" that can be drawn from German training exercises for Sealion is that, even in broad daylight without opposition, they still can't land more than half their troops in the right place.
                  So you're sceptical... Seems to me that scepticism is quite enrooted in your view of the world. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  Relatively easily? 27 boats make it through: two are sunk within two days by aircraft operating out of Gibraltar. As johnbryan says, they take a long time to dive, they're slow and they're ineffective.
                  Actually the Da Vinchi type vessels were credited with the higher number of sinking after the u-boats. Well ahead of Japan, GB and USA subs.
                  The italian subs were also more massive than the u-boats thus more suited to carrying supplies.
                  25 of the 27 boats is relatively easy - considered they have to pass Gibraltar only once - afterwards they operate from the french coast. In any case it's certanly more than zero - which was your previous conviction...

                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  Not necessarily. Mussolini only agrees to support attacks on British trade, not to waste his subs in futile cargo-carrying missions. Furthermore, any say he might have in a peace deal between Germany and Britain will be limited, and such servility will do nothing to increase it.
                  He agreed on 27 for more than an year. I say he could have easily agreed on much more for 3 months.
                  The rewards would have been quite tempting... Having english royalty as concubines ... He was ladies man after all.

                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  The only way the Bismarck would be roaming the Atlantic in August is if the Germans don't bother training the crew, running trials on the ship and completing her anti-aircraft battery. "Commissioned" does not mean "completed."
                  I didn't say august - Sealion was planned for late sept or start of october.
                  Not much ,but just enough. Finalizations could be done while operating, as was frequently the case.

                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  The Navy can afford to do this, though, because it's so much bigger than the Kriegsmarine.
                  Yes, but while significant part of the RN would be busily distracted by couple of german ships the invasion wouldn't stop and wait.

                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  Very odd. I've just found a quote that says 165 destroyers, 34 small patrol craft and 20 trawlers with ASDIC at the beginning of WWII, and another that says 140 trawlers fitting out in September 1939 for antisubmarine duty. I think the jury will have to remain out on this one for a while.
                  Actually it's very simple. There were around 60 patrol boats with asdic and that 's it . 'Assigned for submarine duty' doesn't mean 'having asdic'.


                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  The 1200 includes minesweepers, cruisers, battleships, monitors and various assault ships. If you look specifically at anti-submarine ships, there are 51 destroyers and escorts in the east, and 85 in the west. Of the 12 U-Boats sunk- all in the west, all equipped with snorkels- 5 are destroyed by aircraft. All things considered, I don't think the Royal Navy would have done drastically worse in 1940.
                  You forget that the aircraft hunters had radar. The sonars were waaay much improved than 1940. There were hundreds of asdic equiped patrol vessels with experienced crews from the atlantic.
                  There were literally thousands of plains in the sky with absolute air supremacy.
                  I must say that your comparison is plain ridiculous.

                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  Precisely. The wargame assumed that the invasion through barges would work. Despite the fact they're short of 4,000 crew, despite the fact they can't make more than 3 knots, despite the fact that training in broad daylight from a mile offshore failed miserably, the organisers decided that the invasion would work. Can you really have much faith in their estimation of the ability of the German minesweepers?



                  See above. Just because somebody's an "expert", doesn't make them right. Look at Hugh Trevor-Roper's authentication of the Hitler Diaries for proof of that.
                  You have the basic right to disagree with the experts, but I'll buy their opinion over yours.



                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  They're not, really. The disparity between surface speed and submerged speed, combined with the increased turnaround time from charging batteries and refilling air tanks, means that even a small increase in time spent underwater completely wrecks your figures.
                  The total drag of 100 ton cargo with relatively similar shape to the 750ton sub will be ~5 times less.
                  The average crossing distance of the channel is ~120km, the VIIB's surface speed is ~30km/h,submerged 15km/h let's say it is slowed down by the cargo to 20km/h and 10 km/h respectively, lets say it needs to get submerged third of the way to avoid unpleasant destroyer siluets - that is still 7 hour trip one way.
                  After releasing the cargo (15 min) returning is faster - 5 hours. A total of 12 hours. And I have 24 hours for a trip and have used only half of the submarine fleet.(28 boats)
                  That leads to 2800 ton a day with a 100% spare margin

                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  German divisions in 6th Army were holding positions, not attacking. Mind you, if you view Stalingrad as a validation of the German supply system, then I guess having your U-Boats sunk in the Channel must be a success.
                  You apparently have some math dificulties - I gave 6th army as an example. In my solution the supply is 12 times more.

                  Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                  Do the Germans have naval and air superiority in the Channel? If so, why do they need submarines to carry cargo at all? If they don't, why are they launching the invasion in the first place?
                  I assume the Germans have not won air supremacy, but have air superiority over the channel.
                  The RN achieves naval superiority (but not supremacy) in the chanel several days after the invasion starts (as in the Sandhurst games)
                  If you believe, you receive.
                  If you doubt, you go without.

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                  • #84
                    Originally posted by leopold View Post
                    I assume you mean the 2/3 of the way - when the u-boats are surfaced. Since when submerged they are undetectable from planes.
                    The forward part of their jorney may be timed to be in the night hours (in late september and october nights are longer than days at that altitude).
                    It will be practically impossible for a plane with no radar to find those thiny boats at night.
                    The returning part of the journey boats will have more freedom of maneuvering becouse there'll be no cargo.
                    They'll be able to dive and evade. Besides - what would be those RAF planes? Bombers? The british had very little bombers - they invested everything in fighters. Planes spending a lot of time in the air above the channel will be flying direclty in the LW hugs.
                    Also if those bombers are searching for u-boat needles in 80000square km
                    hay they are not bombing the invading force.
                    For a start, we better dismiss the 80,000 square km myth, since that figure refers to the size of the whole English channel. The German invasion pocket is 40 miles wide, and the Channel behind it is the narrowest reach- unsurprisingly, since it's been chosen for the invasion.

                    The RAF planes are a mixture of Fleet Air Arm and Coastal Command. They're elderly, but as the Birmarck learned, they can still be deadly. They're beginning to be fitted with radar, that can detect a surfaced U-boat at six miles, and they're swapping ineffective bombs for depth charges.

                    Once the supply is on the shore the part of each division, which
                    usually take care of logistics will do the moving of supplies using whatever means available- horses, maybe some trucks, captured british citizens.(although the last would be of somewhat dubious morality).
                    The ports of course will be more problematic, yet their advantage will be of attracting bigger RN and RAF forces.
                    Great. Unless, of course, someone drops gas on those horses and captured British civilians, as Churchill stated he was prepared to do. As for the transfer between U-Boat and beach: how exactly does that work? I mean, the U-boat can't exactly cruise right up into the surf and hand the stuff over to people on the shore. Most likely, you'll be trying to get the cargo ashore with rowers in inflatable boats.

                    The question was where are the reserves coming from. Those need not be immediately summoned.
                    No, the question was about how you were planning to form "wolf packs" to escort the submarines carrying loads. So have we dropped the escort idea, or should I cut all your numbers in half because the submarines you originally earmarked for transport duties are shepherding the convoys instead?

                    So you're sceptical... Seems to me that scepticism is quite enrooted in your view of the world. Not that there is anything wrong with that.
                    If there hadn't been any sceptics working on Overlord, Hitler would probably have died in his bed at the age of 90.

                    Actually the Da Vinchi type vessels were credited with the higher number of sinking after the u-boats. Well ahead of Japan, GB and USA subs.
                    The italian subs were also more massive than the u-boats thus more suited to carrying supplies.
                    25 of the 27 boats is relatively easy - considered they have to pass Gibraltar only once - afterwards they operate from the french coast. In any case it's certanly more than zero - which was your previous conviction...
                    Well, yes. Of course, it's quite easy to rack up kills when your opponents depend on the merchant marine for their lifeline: slightly more difficult when they're a continental power. Also, I think you'll find that 25 is rather closer to my estimate of zero than your estimate of 130.

                    He agreed on 27 for more than an year. I say he could have easily agreed on much more for 3 months.
                    The rewards would have been quite tempting... Having english royalty as concubines ... He was ladies man after all.
                    Clearly, you have no idea what English royalty look like. There's also a substantial difference between supporting your allies in cutting off British trade and sending your entire submarine fleet between Scylla and Charybdis to relegate them to a role that could just as easily be performed as a freighter. Who's to say Mussolini isn't as unimaginative as most of us here?

                    I didn't say august - Sealion was planned for late sept or start of october.
                    Not much ,but just enough. Finalizations could be done while operating, as was frequently the case.
                    October? You must be joking. Overlord's in July, and even that nearly gets pulled because of bad weather. You're going to take Rhine barges packed with men across the Channel in October? This isn't incompetence- it's pure bloody murder.

                    Yes, but while significant part of the RN would be busily distracted by couple of german ships the invasion wouldn't stop and wait.
                    The ships being used to hunt the Bismarck and the Tirpitz are battleships and cruisers- handy for ship-to-ship conflict, less useful in protecting the Channel. The Royal Navy isn't stretching itself to deploy those ships: In fact, it's pretty much the only useful thing that these ships can do- other than swamping barges with their bow wave, that is.

                    Actually it's very simple. There were around 60 patrol boats with asdic and that 's it . 'Assigned for submarine duty' doesn't mean 'having asdic'.
                    No, but "with ASDIC" does. As for the trawlers, the rest of the paragraph goes on to describe what conversion means- 4in gun on the main deck, depth charges and, surprisingly, ASDIC. Considering that the 50 US destroyers that become the Town-class are equipped with ASDIC almost immediately after their arrival, I'd say the odds are pretty good that there's not too much of a backlog of ships needing conversion by September 1940.

                    You forget that the aircraft hunters had radar. The sonars were waaay much improved than 1940. There were hundreds of asdic equiped patrol vessels with experienced crews from the atlantic.
                    There were literally thousands of plains in the sky with absolute air supremacy.
                    I must say that your comparison is plain ridiculous.
                    While anti-submarine defences have been improved, the U-boats themselves have been improved. They can submerge for longer, move faster, hit harder with more powerful and more accurate torpedoes. Of those "thousands of planes," there are still a substantial number of fighters and bombers. Overall, I don't think it's an entirely unfair comparison. If I were the man who'd proposed building a causeway across the Channel in the middle of a war, I'd be careful of hurling the word "ridiculous" about.

                    You have the basic right to disagree with the experts, but I'll buy their opinion over yours.
                    Oh, ok. So you'll stick with whatever supports your argument, regardless of any logical fallacies that can be pointed out in it. I must say, I had suspected this previously.

                    The total drag of 100 ton cargo with relatively similar shape to the 750ton sub will be ~5 times less.
                    The average crossing distance of the channel is ~120km, the VIIB's surface speed is ~30km/h,submerged 15km/h let's say it is slowed down by the cargo to 20km/h and 10 km/h respectively, lets say it needs to get submerged third of the way to avoid unpleasant destroyer siluets - that is still 7 hour trip one way.
                    After releasing the cargo (15 min) returning is faster - 5 hours. A total of 12 hours. And I have 24 hours for a trip and have used only half of the submarine fleet.(28 boats)
                    That leads to 2800 ton a day with a 100% spare margin
                    Did I hear the mention of a Type VIIB? Please tell me you've not been assuming that the German submarine fleet is entirely made up of modern ocean-going vessels. You know how many are left by September 1940? Ten, out of 22 laid down. As for the Type IX, there's a grand total of three of them left. The majority of the submarine fleet is Type IIs, coastal submarines, which are much slower and less powerful than the Atlantic submarines. There goes your margin.

                    You apparently have some math dificulties - I gave 6th army as an example. In my solution the supply is 12 times more.
                    Yes, clearly it is I who am having the math difficulties. I'm adding U-Boats where there are none, losing 200 ships from the Royal Navy's anti-submarine force and turning a forty-mile pocket into an 80,000 square kilometer hunting ground.

                    I assume the Germans have not won air supremacy, but have air superiority over the channel.
                    The RN achieves naval superiority (but not supremacy) in the chanel several days after the invasion starts (as in the Sandhurst games)
                    So the RN doesn't achieve naval supremacy? How, pray? Your U-boats are busy transporting cargo, and your heavy surface ships are, as the plan for Sealion dictates, steaming for the Atlantic trying to draw the Home Fleet away. What are you protecting the Channel with, torpedo boats?

                    Even if they don't have naval supremacy, once the Royal Navy control the Channel again the war is over. There's no way to get the substantial numbers of reinforcements needed over, and eventually the Germans- however well-supplied- will be forced to surrender.
                    Last edited by robcraufurd; 24 Nov 06, 19:01.
                    Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt

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                    • #85
                      Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                      The ships being used to hunt the Bismarck and the Tirpitz are battleships and cruisers- handy for ship-to-ship conflict, less useful in protecting the Channel. The Royal Navy isn't stretching itself to deploy those ships: In fact, it's pretty much the only useful thing that these ships can do- other than swamping barges with their bow wave, that is.
                      Exactly!! Additionally, the KM actually only had the ONE battlecruiser available. IIRC, it was Hipper. Bismarck was undergoing sea trials in August/September; Tirpitz was not commissioned until February 1941; Scharnhorst was undergoing repairs having been damaged by Glorious' escort destroyers, and Gneisenau had been torpedoded by a RN sub (HMS Clyde?)and was undergoing repairs.


                      So the RN doesn't achieve naval supremacy? How, pray? Your U-boats are busy transporting cargo, and your heavy surface ships are, as the plan for Sealion dictates, steaming for the Atlantic trying to draw the Home Fleet away.
                      I think the Hipper would have found herself at the bottom of the North Sea if she had tried steaming for the Atlantic.

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                      • #86
                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        For a start, we better dismiss the 80,000 square km myth, since that figure refers to the size of the whole English channel. The German invasion pocket is 40 miles wide, and the Channel behind it is the narrowest reach- unsurprisingly, since it's been chosen for the invasion.
                        .
                        Ok, Let's do it again. The average crossing distance there will be ~60 km
                        That means 2/3above water will take 2 hours, 1/3 underwater will take 2 hours - total of 4 hours. The return without cargo will be accordingly ~3 hours for a total of 7 hours 15 min , both ways.
                        Ha, my margin just got bigger ,and also ,the operation can be done entirely at night - thus removing tha last miniscule threat of any possible planes that manage to avoid the LW jaws.
                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        The RAF planes are a mixture of Fleet Air Arm and Coastal Command. They're elderly, but as the Birmarck learned, they can still be deadly. They're beginning to be fitted with radar, that can detect a surfaced U-boat at six miles, and they're swapping ineffective bombs for depth charges.
                        Great, those poor slow guys will circle around , unable to find anything during the day, while providing cheap target practice training for green german fighter pilots. - I call this a nice present from the Queen!

                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        Great. Unless, of course, someone drops gas on those horses and captured British civilians, as Churchill stated he was prepared to do.
                        Ohh, the gas argument again. - Ok lets see:
                        1) all german soldiers had standard issue gas masks, those were effeective against mustard gas. So that would slow them and irritate,but not kill them.
                        2) Even if Churchil is enough madman to gas his own population the british generals may not be.
                        3) The effect on the british troops moral of the fact that some of their wifes and douthers are being cruelly exterminated like bugs only to slow down the germans would be devastating.
                        4) The nazis had their own surprize - sarin, tabun ,against which the British had nothing at the moment.

                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        As for the transfer between U-Boat and beach: how exactly does that work? I mean, the U-boat can't exactly cruise right up into the surf and hand the stuff over to people on the shore. Most likely, you'll be trying to get the cargo ashore with rowers in inflatable boats.
                        This is a very important part of the proposition so I'll elaborate more:
                        a) The sub comes 1km - 500 m from the shore ( for the most part of the beaches there is enough depth at that range for a sub)
                        b) The sub surfaces and detaches a small boat, which was previously attached to the deck (for 10-15 man) or the crew inflates a small inflatable boat.
                        c) A 10-15 men party leaves with the small row boat pulling a rope. The other part of the rope is a 1km roll attached on the container, thus the boat doesn't move the whole cargo, but unwinds the rope (much less force needed).
                        d) The sub detaches the cargo, submerges and leaves. ( The 1m diameter tubes of the cargo are deattached from their rope thus they float by themselves.
                        e) The small boat approaches beach, while unwinding the rope.
                        f) After reaching the beach the rope is dragged from the shore until the cargo starts approaching.
                        g) The additional weights were initially attached (in port)to hooks on the cargo in such maner that when it hits the bottom they fall - therefore the cargo surfaces.
                        h) Some additional help comes from the shore and helps the inititial guys to unload the tubes.


                        In case some bigger cargo needs to be transferred (with a single hull 100 ton container) the operation will be similar,but some winch will be used for the final meters of dragging the cargo to the beach.
                        In this way any cargo that can be stuck inside 5mx20m container can be passed - guns, halftracks or even tanks.

                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        No, the question was about how you were planning to form "wolf packs" to escort the submarines carrying loads. So have we dropped the escort idea, or should I cut all your numbers in half because the submarines you originally earmarked for transport duties are shepherding the convoys instead?
                        You seem to completely disagree that Musolini can provide more than the original 25 boats to help. Hovever even with those there would be sufficient reserve for small packs of subs to hack the RN in the channel distracting it from the main transport effort.
                        The escort idea was just an optional tool, which would be available. It's not the the main idea.


                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        If there hadn't been any sceptics working on Overlord, Hitler would probably have died in his bed at the age of 90.
                        I personaly think even without the Overlord the russians would have succeeded. The air raids would have to remain though.

                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        Well, yes. Of course, it's quite easy to rack up kills when your opponents depend on the merchant marine for their lifeline: slightly more difficult when they're a continental power. Also, I think you'll find that 25 is rather closer to my estimate of zero than your estimate of 130.
                        Since when Japan became a continental power?
                        Hmm, lets check lim (x->0)25/x and then lim(x->25)130/x - familiar with infinitesmall calculus?
                        Besides Musolini decided to send only 27 - if persuaded he could have sent more ,that was my point and I'm pretty sure you got it the first time.

                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        Clearly, you have no idea what English royalty look like.
                        :-)

                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        There's also a substantial difference between supporting your allies in cutting off British trade and sending your entire submarine fleet between Scylla and Charybdis to relegate them to a role that could just as easily be performed as a freighter. Who's to say Mussolini isn't as unimaginative as most of us here?
                        Naval guns from the french cost. Sporadic AT lucky shots from the landing zone, LW pondering from above and u-boats lurking from bellow - I'm not sure for who it is Scylla and Charybdis.
                        Easily?!? According to almost everyone's opinion supplying with freighters is the main fault of Sealion.
                        Considering that the Germany just came out victorus of several battles and occupied almost whole europe and considering his direct interests were involved I say he'd find some imagination.

                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        October? You must be joking. Overlord's in July, and even that nearly gets pulled because of bad weather. You're going to take Rhine barges packed with men across the Channel in October? This isn't incompetence- it's pure bloody murder.
                        Ok. Late aug start of sept. - so the Bismark will start bugging 3 weeks after the start of the invasion - it's still a considerable threat. Besides there were other ships available for that role.

                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        The ships being used to hunt the Bismarck and the Tirpitz are battleships and cruisers- handy for ship-to-ship conflict, less useful in protecting the Channel. The Royal Navy isn't stretching itself to deploy those ships: In fact, it's pretty much the only useful thing that these ships can do- other than swamping barges with their bow wave, that is.
                        So you just left the channel protected only by destroyers, patrol boats and trawlers.
                        In such case additional transport with surface ships becoms acceptable option.


                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        No, but "with ASDIC" does. As for the trawlers, the rest of the paragraph goes on to describe what conversion means- 4in gun on the main deck, depth charges and, surprisingly, ASDIC. Considering that the 50 US destroyers that become the Town-class are equipped with ASDIC almost immediately after their arrival, I'd say the odds are pretty good that there's not too much of a backlog of ships needing conversion by September 1940.
                        In the link you provided there wasn't any data pointing to 300 asdic equiped vessels in addition to the destroyers.
                        Since I have info that there were 54 such in the start of the war for the entire Royal fleet I'll asume that there would be no more than 60 such vessels oposing invasion in addition to the destroyers.

                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        While anti-submarine defences have been improved, the U-boats themselves have been improved. They can submerge for longer, move faster, hit harder with more powerful and more accurate torpedoes. Of those "thousands of planes," there are still a substantial number of fighters and bombers. Overall, I don't think it's an entirely unfair comparison. If I were the man who'd proposed building a causeway across the Channel in the middle of a war, I'd be careful of hurling the word "ridiculous" about.
                        And if you were man hurling the word ridiculous constantly at others wouldn't you have to be a little more careful of your own posts? (Italian subs too slow to pass the Gibraltar, Indicator loops detecting subs from a distance etc.)


                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        Did I hear the mention of a Type VIIB? Please tell me you've not been assuming that the German submarine fleet is entirely made up of modern ocean-going vessels. You know how many are left by September 1940? Ten, out of 22 laid down. As for the Type IX, there's a grand total of three of them left. The majority of the submarine fleet is Type IIs, coastal submarines, which are much slower and less powerful than the Atlantic submarines. There goes your margin.
                        In aug/sept there were:
                        VIIA - 6 boats
                        VIIB 5 boats
                        IA - 2 boats
                        IXA - 3 boats
                        IXB - 3 boats
                        U-1 - 1 boat
                        Total ocean going u-boats 20
                        Italian 25 subs (minimum)
                        Total : 45 ocean going boats available with above 700 ton displacement.

                        The ~30 smaller u-boats can be used for transfering proportionaly smaller cargo since the containers would be made by 1mx20m pipes anyway.

                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        Yes, clearly it is I who am having the math difficulties. I'm adding U-Boats where there are none, losing 200 ships from the Royal Navy's anti-submarine force and turning a forty-mile pocket into an 80,000 square kilometer hunting ground.
                        Yes you are. Look above. Besides, the remark was aimed at your persistant conviction that 25ton >= 300ton

                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post

                        So the RN doesn't achieve naval supremacy? How, pray? Your U-boats are busy transporting cargo, and your heavy surface ships are, as the plan for Sealion dictates, steaming for the Atlantic trying to draw the Home Fleet away. What are you protecting the Channel with, torpedo boats?
                        The RN ship cannot approach French beach too close since it will get the fat end of naval guns.
                        If it comes too close to the invaded beach it can expect some nice AT shells.
                        If it starts feeling too comfy in the middle suddenly some Ju 87 can drop by and ruin it's meditation.
                        If it evades it some u-boat torpedo may blow it just as well.
                        This is supremacy?!
                        Originally posted by robcraufurd View Post
                        Even if they don't have naval supremacy, once the Royal Navy control the Channel again the war is over. There's no way to get the substantial numbers of reinforcements needed over, and eventually the Germans- however well-supplied- will be forced to surrender.
                        Reinforcements will come in the folowwing way:
                        Each u-boat raid will bring 15 guys for a total of ~450 per day.
                        There were 400 Ju 52.
                        Since the invasion will capture some airfields, first thing they could do is fly some 60 missions per day bringing 1000 troops.
                        As I previosly stated - nobody has cancelled the surface approach during night time - there were many boats assembled by the Kriegsmarine for the invasion besides the infamous barges.
                        Those may succeed from time to time.
                        If you believe, you receive.
                        If you doubt, you go without.

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                        • #87
                          Originally posted by michammer View Post
                          Exactly!! Additionally, the KM actually only had the ONE battlecruiser available. IIRC, it was Hipper. Bismarck was undergoing sea trials in August/September; Tirpitz was not commissioned until February 1941; Scharnhorst was undergoing repairs having been damaged by Glorious' escort destroyers, and Gneisenau had been torpedoded by a RN sub (HMS Clyde?)and was undergoing repairs.
                          .
                          They had pocket battleships and cruisers - enough to keep RN busy while evading direct contact.

                          The Bismark would have joined them shortly..
                          If you believe, you receive.
                          If you doubt, you go without.

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                          • #88
                            Originally posted by leopold View Post
                            Ok, Let's do it again. The average crossing distance there will be ~60 km
                            That means 2/3above water will take 2 hours, 1/3 underwater will take 2 hours - total of 4 hours. The return without cargo will be accordingly ~3 hours for a total of 7 hours 15 min , both ways.
                            Ha, my margin just got bigger ,and also ,the operation can be done entirely at night - thus removing tha last miniscule threat of any possible planes that manage to avoid the LW jaws.
                            This is great, and I'm pleased to see you're having fun with maths, but it's completely irrelevant to my point. The U-Boats do not have 80,000 square km to play with: they have to land their cargo somewhere within the German beach-head, which initially is 40 miles wide. As for your calculations of speed, they're still based on the speed of the Type VII.

                            Great, those poor slow guys will circle around , unable to find anything during the day, while providing cheap target practice training for green german fighter pilots. - I call this a nice present from the Queen!
                            What? Which bit of "able to detect a surfaced U-Boat within six miles" don't you understand? As for the German fighter pilots, don't you think they'll be a little busy trying to prevent the RAF from bombing the German beachhead until it crumbles into the sea?

                            Ohh, the gas argument again. - Ok lets see:
                            1) all german soldiers had standard issue gas masks, those were effeective against mustard gas. So that would slow them and irritate,but not kill them.
                            2) Even if Churchil is enough madman to gas his own population the british generals may not be.
                            3) The effect on the british troops moral of the fact that some of their wifes and douthers are being cruelly exterminated like bugs only to slow down the germans would be devastating.
                            4) The nazis had their own surprize - sarin, tabun ,against which the British had nothing at the moment.
                            1) Gas masks and protective equipment take time to put on and lessen the ability to fight. If used on the initial landings, the effect of gas could be devastating.
                            2) Any British general who refused to use gas would be instantly replaced, if not court-martialled.
                            3) The British have been subjected to a barrage of propaganda: their morale would almost undoubtedly be stiffened by the fact the Germans were putting civilians in such a position.
                            4) The Nazi's can't produce mustard gas because they haven't got an effective access to ethylene. Their production of nerve agents is extremely limited- the main plant for tabun isn't complete until 1942, that for sarin by the end of the war.

                            This is a very important part of the proposition so I'll elaborate more:
                            a) The sub comes 1km - 500 m from the shore ( for the most part of the beaches there is enough depth at that range for a sub)
                            b) The sub surfaces and detaches a small boat, which was previously attached to the deck (for 10-15 man) or the crew inflates a small inflatable boat.
                            c) A 10-15 men party leaves with the small row boat pulling a rope. The other part of the rope is a 1km roll attached on the container, thus the boat doesn't move the whole cargo, but unwinds the rope (much less force needed).
                            d) The sub detaches the cargo, submerges and leaves. ( The 1m diameter tubes of the cargo are deattached from their rope thus they float by themselves.
                            e) The small boat approaches beach, while unwinding the rope.
                            f) After reaching the beach the rope is dragged from the shore until the cargo starts approaching.
                            g) The additional weights were initially attached (in port)to hooks on the cargo in such maner that when it hits the bottom they fall - therefore the cargo surfaces.
                            h) Some additional help comes from the shore and helps the inititial guys to unload the tubes.
                            This sounds like a lot of fun, under the threat of air or gas attack. There's a reason why the British and Americans spend so much time developing and building LSTs: part of it may have to do with your cargo floating off to sea while the crew of the boat row frantically for shore. If the submarine waits until they reach it, holding the cargo in place, it's a sitting duck.

                            You seem to completely disagree that Musolini can provide more than the original 25 boats to help. Hovever even with those there would be sufficient reserve for small packs of subs to hack the RN in the channel distracting it from the main transport effort.
                            The escort idea was just an optional tool, which would be available. It's not the the main idea.
                            Almost all of Mussolini's best submarines are already deployed. Anything else he sends will be worse than the Type II U-Boats, that you saw as so useless that you based all your calculations on later, more advanced models. How long do you think it'd take to pull a submarine from patrol in the North Atlantic, fit it for towing and then deploy it in the Channel? Furthermore, the "escort idea" is clearly not an optional tool, because it either requires leaving British convoys unmolested or slicing your cargo estimates in half.

                            Since when Japan became a continental power?
                            Hmm, lets check lim (x->0)25/x and then lim(x->25)130/x - familiar with infinitesmall calculus?
                            Besides Musolini decided to send only 27 - if persuaded he could have sent more ,that was my point and I'm pretty sure you got it the first time.
                            The distance between Japan and mainland Asia is a lot shorter than the distance between Britain and America. Royal Navy submarines are almost entirely devoted to clearing the seas of hostile warships, not sinking merchant ships- of which the Axis have few anyway. In effect, the Italians and Germans are winning a race that the British and Americans aren't running.

                            Why bother to use calculus? My estimate was 25 boats out, yours was well over 100. As for your contention that Mussolini would send his entire submarine fleet. I most certainly do not "get it."

                            Naval guns from the french cost. Sporadic AT lucky shots from the landing zone, LW pondering from above and u-boats lurking from bellow - I'm not sure for who it is Scylla and Charybdis.
                            Easily?!? According to almost everyone's opinion supplying with freighters is the main fault of Sealion.
                            Considering that the Germany just came out victorus of several battles and occupied almost whole europe and considering his direct interests were involved I say he'd find some imagination.
                            I was thinking more of the British antisubmarine defences of Gibraltar: I would have thought that was the more obvious reference, unless you believe that Odysseus spent ten years voyaging in the North Sea. It's certainly not my opinion that supplying with freighters is the main fault: it's the German inability to protect their supply lines that is the main fault, and everything else stems from that. Mussolini's "direct interests" are to push the British out of North Africa and turn the Med into an "Italian lake". As for Germany, if they're so wonderfully victorious why are they coming cap in hand to Mussolini begging for submarines? He might start wondering whether his glorious ally can't fight its own battles.

                            Ok. Late aug start of sept. - so the Bismark will start bugging 3 weeks after the start of the invasion - it's still a considerable threat. Besides there were other ships available for that role.
                            Three weeks. The Germans invade England, and the Home Fleet sits in the Western Isles for three weeks in case the unfinished German battlecruiser decides to sally out and attack trade. Remind me again, how long does the Sandhurst war-game say the invasion would last? Also, could you perhaps name these other ships?

                            So you just left the channel protected only by destroyers, patrol boats and trawlers.
                            In such case additional transport with surface ships becoms acceptable option.
                            The Royal Navy has five battleships and eleven cruisers. Detach half of those to deal with the Hipper- which I assume is the commerce raider you mean, since the Gneisenau and Scharnhorst are still being repaired and the Tirpitz hasn't been commissioned yet- and you've still got enough forces to clear the Channel.

                            EDIT: Apologies to michammer, I hadn't seen your excellent post before making this one. By the way, as you seem to have a good grasp on the naval forces, could you clear something up for me? I understood the Scharnhorst and Gneisenau WERE the German navy's "pocket battleships". Have I misunderstood, or are there more "pocket battleships" floating round somewhere?

                            In the link you provided there wasn't any data pointing to 300 asdic equiped vessels in addition to the destroyers.
                            Since I have info that there were 54 such in the start of the war for the entire Royal fleet I'll asume that there would be no more than 60 such vessels oposing invasion in addition to the destroyers.
                            Ask, and ye shall receive.

                            And if you were man hurling the word ridiculous constantly at others wouldn't you have to be a little more careful of your own posts? (Italian subs too slow to pass the Gibraltar, Indicator loops detecting subs from a distance etc.)
                            Were I the one who had first used the word "ridiculous," this would indeed be true. However, I'm fairly certain that any numerical or factual errors I may have made in the course of writing this are matched by your own.

                            In aug/sept there were:
                            VIIA - 6 boats
                            VIIB 5 boats
                            IA - 2 boats
                            IXA - 3 boats
                            IXB - 3 boats
                            U-1 - 1 boat
                            Total ocean going u-boats 20
                            Italian 25 subs (minimum)
                            Total : 45 ocean going boats available with above 700 ton displacement.
                            Remind me again, what's half of 45? It's not 28, is it? And you were referring only to U-Boats initially, as well: the Italian submarine fleet was only brought in later as reinforcements, and now it's become part of the main effort. The very, very least you could have done before suggesting this counterfactual is to actually find out how many U-Boats Germany had at the time, rather than taking the first number you found on Wikipedia.

                            Incidentally, U-1 sank in April 1940. I'm not quite sure why you've included her, but I assume you have your reasons.

                            Yes you are. Look above. Besides, the remark was aimed at your persistant conviction that 25ton >= 300ton
                            I'm not convinced that 25 tons is more than 300 tons, I'm saying that the 6th Army at Stalingrad should not be used as any sort of benchmark for supply consumption.

                            The RN ship cannot approach French beach too close since it will get the fat end of naval guns.
                            If it comes too close to the invaded beach it can expect some nice AT shells.
                            If it starts feeling too comfy in the middle suddenly some Ju 87 can drop by and ruin it's meditation.
                            If it evades it some u-boat torpedo may blow it just as well.
                            This is supremacy?!
                            37mm PaK, versus 114mm armour and 6in guns. My money's on the cruiser in that battle. Clearly, the British can cruise as close to the invaded beaches as they damn well like. Nice to see that we've got armed U-Boats in the Channel again, and that the Ju87s aren't having to work flat out to support the invasion.

                            Reinforcements will come in the folowwing way:
                            Each u-boat raid will bring 15 guys for a total of ~450 per day.
                            There were 400 Ju 52.
                            Since the invasion will capture some airfields, first thing they could do is fly some 60 missions per day bringing 1000 troops.
                            As I previosly stated - nobody has cancelled the surface approach during night time - there were many boats assembled by the Kriegsmarine for the invasion besides the infamous barges.
                            Those may succeed from time to time.
                            Which airfields are you capturing, precisely? Are we to assume that the RAF will simply abandon their runways and facilities in pristine condition? If you don't manage to capture any and get them up and running within a short space of time, or if the British manage to bomb and close them, you'll be facing what the invaders of Crete faced by the end of the first day.

                            As for the 15 men per U-Boat: will they all be from the same division? If the U-Boat is forced to divert, will they have to be formed into scratch units? Also, if there is a diversion, will the supplies be transported overland to the division that needs them? By the way: 170 cargo ships, 1277 barges, and 471 tugs. The amount of reinforcements brought by sea will be negligible, if you discount the barges.
                            Last edited by robcraufurd; 25 Nov 06, 14:55.
                            Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt

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                            • #89
                              I'm sorry, but if anybody seriously thinks that an invasion of Britain can be maintained by submarines, they know absolutely nothing about logistics.

                              According to the final German plan for Sealion, using the maximum available amount of shipping at their disposal, and no interference from either the RAF or RN, it would take the Germans a total of 11 days to land just over 200 tanks of all types and a mere 9 infantry divisions with no heavy equipment of note.
                              Yet you expect us to believe that the Germans could not only land enough troops in just a few days to overcome the defenses, but that they would be able to supply them using submarines travelling underwater.

                              No. its a totally insane idea and it won't work.

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                              • #90
                                Originally posted by robcraufurd;596027,
                                how long does the Sandhurst war-game say the invasion would last?.
                                It has to be remember that the Sandhurst war game deliberately factored out both the RAF and RN out of the equation, in order to find out the capabilities of the British army on its own to defeat the German forces if they landed in strength.

                                The final finding of the war game was that even if the Germans managed to land a majority of the first wave, the British would still be able to defeat it due the capability of the British forces to build up their forces fighting the invasion far quicker than the Germans would be able to reinforce their invasion forces.

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