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  • July 'Operation Sealion'?

    Upon reviewing the original 'Operation Sealion. Was it Possible?' thread I realised that not all the participents were discussing, or even wanted to discuss, a September 'Sealion'. This led to a number of 'unfortunately worded' exchanges which could have been avoided had the thread opening question been better framed by yours truly.

    So after due consideration and consutation it was thought best to open a new thread for the discussion of a more ahistorical July 'Sealion'.

    Have fun with this one ladies and gentlemen.
    Signing out.

  • #2
    Pulled over from the other 'Sealion' thread, here's the historical OOB of the forces available in the UK in July 1940.

    Originally posted by The Purist

    In July, according to Hamilton and the official war records, England had the following troops in the southeast in July:

    1st London Div - Dover, Folkstone, Deal
    45th Division - Rye, Pevensey
    3rd Division - Worthing, Brighton
    New Zealand - Reigate, Crawley

    These first three divisions were either without significant transport or only partially mobile, the NZ was fully mobile (and actually, more properly part of the GHQ reserve but probably the first responders.

    The GHQ Reserve in July consisted of the following divisions (west of London, Oxforshire, Wiltshire):

    1st Arm'd Div (Cruisers and Matilda IIs)
    2nd Arm'd Div (Cruisers, Lt tanks and Valentines)
    1st Canadian
    2nd London
    43rd Wessex
    52nd Lowland

    plus an Australian division just arrived near Bristol. (This one and the NZ'ers came as a surprise to me when I first read about them).
    Signing out.

    Comment


    • #3
      There are plenty of variants up for debate on this thread I'm sure, but in my opinion if the BEF had not been evacuated from France I think Britain would have accepted whatever peace settlement was offered. With very little to combat any German invasion directly it would have been foolish to expect the RAF and the RN to prevent it. That's not to say that defeat was inevitable but with public morale almost certainly low and no great Churchillian speeches to lift it I can't see there being the will to continue fighting. Pragmatism would have won the day.
      Signing out.

      Comment


      • #4
        There basically isn't a debate because there is no shipping available at this stage to take German forces over.
        Colonel Summers' widely quoted critique of US strategy in the Vietnam War is having a modest vogue...it is poor history, poor strategy, and poor Clausewitz to boot - Robet Komer, Survival, 27:2, p. 94.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by thejester
          There basically isn't a debate because there is no shipping available at this stage to take German forces over.
          Come on tj, don't be such a party pooper!

          The idea is to explore possibilities that exist outside the original timeline. Thus the Germans could assemble some kind of invasion fleet in July 1940 if they plan earlier and are prepared to damage their own economy for an indetermie period of time. If we were to ask for the same level of realism in this thread as we do in the other 'Sealion' thead it would be pointless!
          Signing out.

          Comment


          • #6
            To save wading through the other thread, could someone from the yes camp recap the alternative Luftwaffe strategy in as much detail as they can. It seems we've assumed the plans were made early enough to assemble the required canoes (sorry, I meant unpowered barges ) to transport the invasion troops across in July.

            O.K. What are the Luftwaffe doing, since there is to be no attritional battle, to ensure success.

            regards,
            IronDuke

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by IronDuke
              To save wading through the other thread, could someone from the yes camp recap the alternative Luftwaffe strategy in as much detail as they can. It seems we've assumed the plans were made early enough to assemble the required canoes (sorry, I meant unpowered barges ) to transport the invasion troops across in July.

              O.K. What are the Luftwaffe doing, since there is to be no attritional battle, to ensure success.

              regards,
              IronDuke
              I'd love to fill you in on some details, but I'm still waiting on the Luftwaffe strategy.
              Signing out.

              Comment


              • #8
                Due to an apparent reticence amongst the 'Axis team' to get involved in this (I understand your reasons gentlemen) it seems I must turn turncoat and advocate for them.

                So, before I issue a plan (time is needed) I thought I'd outline a few assumptions I shall be making. Feel free to comment/add/rip apart.

                1) No change to the available regular forces on either side - apart maybe for a slightly better equipped 'Home Guard'.

                2) The Germans have assembled their 'canoes' ready for a full scale invasion in July. They don't swamp as easily as they did historically.

                3) German intel on RAF strength is better than it was historically.

                4) German intel on 'Chain Home' is as bad as it was historically. Caveat: They do know that RAF fighters seem to in the air too quickly even if the observers have the eyes of eagles!

                5) With the extra warning period British beach defences are much further advanced than historically but not to the level they were in September 1940.

                Anything else I should consider when developing a plan?

                Regards

                Von Monty
                Last edited by Full Monty; 05 Apr 06, 20:40.
                Signing out.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Where to house all the Brit prisoners once a German FJ superman shows up?

                  Sorry couldn't help myself

                  Maybe that will get the German supporters going?
                  Check out our webpage for our NFL picks http://members.cox.net/mjohns59/

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Psycho
                    Where to house all the Brit prisoners once a German FJ superman shows up?
                    Come on Psycho, a 'July Sealion' is a bit of fantasy. Don't bring it down by pointing out realities
                    Signing out.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      mugh all dressed up and no fascists to fight......just like Dover 1940

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Paddybhoy
                        mugh all dressed up and no fascists to fight
                        Like your forebears you'll just have to invoke your deep-set Anglophobia and engage this lone Englishman
                        Signing out.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Softening Up

                          Here's the first stage of the plan.

                          July 10th:

                          With the invasion date set for July 15th and the Me-109s flying CAP over the assembly ports (as well as moving to airfields as close as possible to the Straits) the Luftwaffe bombers will operate at night. 'Probing' attacks in early July have revealed that the RAF has an uncanny ability to be in the air and waiting for any air units crossing the Channel so with the fighters otherwise engaged night bombing seems the best option. Utilising the excellent German radar navigation systems the bombers will target Harwich and Portsmouth with the objective of at minimum causing confusion and disruption of naval facilities there. Taking advantage of this, Me-110s and U-boats will lay mines outside the ports, mainly to force the RN to 'sweep' extensively before putting to sea, hopefully slowing the deployment of vessels when the invasion begins.
                          Signing out.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Full Monty
                            5) With the extra warning period British beach defences are much further advanced than historically but not to the level they were in September 1940.

                            Anything else I should consider when developing a plan?

                            Von Monty

                            FM:

                            I'm not quite sure why you keep equating better German "planning" with more "warning" for the Brits. While I have no desire to engage generally in the debate here, I will offer you a perspective, per your request.

                            Even with intelligence Coups, Britain can't "see" contingency planning. They had NO idea the attack on Scandanavia was coming, and the scope, when realized, scared them sh****ss as the Huns were pulling it right in their "bloodly back yard" and under the nose of the Royal Navy. Bloody Bloody Hell!!! By accident(?) Hitler kept the plan close to the vest in OKW (only). We now know of the many leaks in OKH.

                            Had Hitler made the decision in November he would have to fight BOTH France and Britain before being "safe" to turn east {here is the ONE historical change} Sealion would have likely ended up in OKW as a contingency plan while OKH leaked like a sieve and put the finishing touches on Case Yellow. After all, The General Staff and Hitler had no idea France would be a 6 week affair.

                            More crucial, neither did the British.

                            .....So they aren't preparing for invasion in November..... nor are they preparing for invasion up to May 10th, 1940..... Nor are they preparing for invasion..... until Churchill flies into France to meet with Reynaurd(?) and has his Oh My Gawd experience per his memiors. (seeing how bad things are in France and its lack of will to continue the struggle)

                            Historically, when Hitler finally decided that Churchill was not going to negotiate circa July 10th or 11th -- it took approx 30 days for the invasion barges to be assembled. The Huns did know how to hurry! The ONLY issue of long term negative economic impact was IF IF IF the barges remained assembled a long time -- like historically until Spring 41 if the invasion was delayed --.

                            About the time the Panzers break through at Sedan, and Guderian's intel evals coming flying in to OKH, OKW is dusting off the contingeny plan, and as updates happen, calls begin to go out to assemble barges etc.

                            [Now, ahistorical, feasible, but different -- if germany had begun planning for invasion earlier, there is a chance a few handfuls of Prahams (spelling) {10 mph stable platforms with 88mm guns on the corners -- that were actually developed later for the Med -- might have made it into being. I'll leave this up to you to decide.]

                            From the time Churchill meets with the French, he knows England could be next and preparations get underway BIG TIME. On or about June 10th the barges begin assembly per contingency, and by July 10-15th are being loaded with planned hardware, Schwimpanzers and the like, and tie back into your opening moves. (if you like)

                            July only works for the Germans because of the reduced state of British defenses, not in spite of them, otherwise, End The Thread.

                            So by July 10th, Britain has had 4 maybe 5 weeks to realize they are next and begin prepping.

                            [Does the BEF escape? I'm not sure I agree with you that Churchill would have voluntarily agreed to negotiate had they not, {would like to discuss that particular point off thread later} and given the above, let's do assume this doesn't go right for the Germans, Goering strikes again -- the BEF escapes and I'll leave it to debaters to argue +/- troops shipped home.]

                            Needed: discussion of where the air battles over Dunkirk leave each side.


                            VM
                            Last edited by E_Von_Manstein; 07 Apr 06, 21:54.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Thanks EVM.

                              The British will 'see' the shipping being assembled. From my reading 4 weeks from order to assembly ignores time period to organise etc. If invasion is to be launched July 15th then assembly must begin last week in May at latest, probably earlier. I've got a link for that but I'm not on the computer with it bookmarked.

                              Needed: discussion of where the air battles over Dunkirk leave each side.
                              Why? I'm assuming historical up to Fall of France. For the same reason that I didn't want to discuss losing the BEF on the other Sealion thread. Otherwise it over-complicates the debate.

                              Regarding British defences, I would assume that they would start building beach defences in the last week in May as well as organising Home Defence (instead of waiting until Brooke takes over in early June). Gives them a little more than historically but not that much. Obviously the BEF's equipment is only starting to be replaced so I think the British are weak enough
                              Signing out.

                              Comment

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