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  • Nationalist Victory in China

    When Mao Tse Tung (or him with one of the various spellings of his name) drove the Nationalists out of China and onto Taiwan, China began to evolve from being a roadkill with imperial buzzards picking at it and began its growth into a modern, powerful state.

    But what if Chiang Kai-shek had handed him his hat (with a bullet in it) and defeated the Reds?

    How would Asia have changed?

    How would the world have changed?

    Vietnam War? Korean War? India's growth as China's ally?

    What do you think?
    Barcsi János ispán vezérőrnagy
    Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2003 & 2006


    "Never pet a burning dog."

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  • #2
    Well, there would be several consenquences.

    1. China wouldnt be even nearly developed today as it is.

    2. Korea and Vietnam would be total victories for the US.

    3. No changes with India.

    In any case, the US would have a large, but weak, ally in Asia.
    "Beneath its gilded beauty, though, there lies a poorly designed game which rewards the greedy and violent, and punishes the hardworking and honest; and if you think about it, that's a good representation of capitalism" - Nightfreeze about Eve Online

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Tom Phoenix
      Well, there would be several consenquences.

      1. China wouldnt be even nearly developed today as it is.

      2. Korea and Vietnam would be total victories for the US.

      3. No changes with India.

      In any case, the US would have a large, but weak, ally in Asia.
      Not necessarily weak. Japan wasn’t exactly a powerhouse in the 1950’s. True we helped to build their economy up, in part, because of the Korean War. But I don’t think we would have done any less with China in order to challenge the USSR in Asia.
      Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedy. -- Ernest Benn

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Tom Phoenix
        Well, there would be several consenquences.

        1. China wouldnt be even nearly developed today as it is.

        2. Korea and Vietnam would be total victories for the US.

        3. No changes with India.

        In any case, the US would have a large, but weak, ally in Asia.
        fully agree. perhaps even no civil war. the French might have won The Indochina war as well - and Vietnam would have ended up in the early 60s a unified country - one of the first Asian Dragons, as with Japan and Korea. Nationalist China, while able to win the Civil War woudl still have been hard pressed to be "united" and would have suffered from considerable corruption and backwardness, but less devastation in human lives.. but communism would have been a strong voice there.. and a long civil war might have continued. a massive drain on resourced for the US and USSR...
        "Freedom cannot exist without discipline, self-discipline, and rights cannot exist without duties. Those who do not observe their duties do not deserve their rights."--Oriana Fallaci

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        • #5
          I suspect (as it seems some of you do) that the French would have left Indo-China regardless. Does that mean a better military and economic balance in the 50s-60s between Vietnam, China, Japan, and a single Korea?

          Would the Russians have been more aggressive in their border disputes?

          Tibet would be a country, too.
          Barcsi János ispán vezérőrnagy
          Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2003 & 2006


          "Never pet a burning dog."

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          • #6
            Well, the US would definetly have unified the Korean penninsula (although this might have angered the Russians), and then the US would have an ally in China, Korea, and Japan.

            Vietnam would probably become an independent nation, but would never be divided as it was between North and South.

            Without the threat of the 'domino' theory in SE Asia, the US would be much less likely to interfere in those nations except against Communist rebellions and such.

            However, I see China not being as 'peaceful' as it is now. I don't really see Chang Ka-Shek (sp?) driving all of Mao's forces out of China, so I imagine that Mao would have de-facto control of the farthest west and north-west provinces (the ones bordering the Soviet Union).

            The United States would not recognize the 'West China' government, while the Soviets would supply them with weapons to ensure a lengthy and costly civil war. In fact, the soviets would enjoy such a simmering conflict as it would guard thier border against American influences through China.

            In the end, I could see the Chinese coming to some sort of agreement once the Soviet Union fell (and therefor depriving the Chinese communists of thier industrial base), perhaps creating an Independent West China, or just establishing a hazy truce between them.

            Of course, Chang was pretty willing to prosecute a war against the Communists, so perhaps our conflict of the 70's wouldn't have been in Vietnam but instead in China; the American troops fighting an unpopular war in the mountains and deserts of west China for our ally there, facing a determined opponent supplied by the Soviet war-machine.

            Of course, we might not risk such a war so close to the Soviet border for fear of inciting a war.


            "Run through Beijing" by CCR and "Chinese Blues" by Dave Dudley represented the protest movement.

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            • #7
              However, I see China not being as 'peaceful' as it is now. I don't really see Chang Ka-Shek (sp?) driving all of Mao's forces out of China, so I imagine that Mao would have de-facto control of the farthest west and north-west provinces (the ones bordering the Soviet Union).

              The United States would not recognize the 'West China' government, while the Soviets would supply them with weapons to ensure a lengthy and costly civil war. In fact, the soviets would enjoy such a simmering conflict as it would guard thier border against American influences through China.

              In the end, I could see the Chinese coming to some sort of agreement once the Soviet Union fell (and therefor depriving the Chinese communists of thier industrial base), perhaps creating an Independent West China, or just establishing a hazy truce between them.

              Of course, Chang was pretty willing to prosecute a war against the Communists, so perhaps our conflict of the 70's wouldn't have been in Vietnam but instead in China; the American troops fighting an unpopular war in the mountains and deserts of west China for our ally there, facing a determined opponent supplied by the Soviet war-machine.

              Of course, we might not risk such a war so close to the Soviet border for fear of inciting a war.
              I have read that in 1946 Chang Ka-shek was getting ready to crush the final remnents of the Communists in the north when Marshal told him not to attack. That gave the Communists time to rebuild and they eventually won the war. So your theory would not work in that case because the Communists would have been destroyed.

              I can see Asia being much more stable with Korea being unified and Vietnam not being a problem.

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              • #8
                I agree that Asia would be more stable, that Korea would be unified, and that Vietnam would not have been an issue.

                IIRC, the Japanese Self-Defense force is a reaction to communist pressure decades ago. With no "red peril" in Asia, would the Japanese have a military at all (under any name)?

                Would the French have remained in "Indo-China" until they divested their overseas holdings in the 60s?
                Barcsi János ispán vezérőrnagy
                Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2003 & 2006


                "Never pet a burning dog."

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                • #9
                  China would probably have turned into a huge Vietnam, Korea or Afghanistan, being devided with some commmunist part(s) and a huge war going on with the communist block and the West supporting and pulling here and there.

                  Chiang Kai-shek was corrupt and probably an idiot, there is no way he could have held any country together, much less a large one. He would be exactly like the South Vietnam regime.

                  We are talking decades of civil war here.
                  Last edited by Redwolf; 09 Mar 06, 07:46.

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                  • #10
                    In the case Redwolf is suggesting, not only would the Japanese have Self-Defense forces, they would be allowed to rebuild their army again in order to support the struggle in China.

                    I think Japan is bound to be allowed to rebuild its army and navy sooner or later. With the growing power of the PLAN (aka Chinese navy), I think that even the US Pacific fleet is starting to feel uneasy. If things develop as they are developing currently, I think even the Japanese will start complaining that in case of an all-out war with China, their minor self-defence forces just won`t cut it.
                    "Beneath its gilded beauty, though, there lies a poorly designed game which rewards the greedy and violent, and punishes the hardworking and honest; and if you think about it, that's a good representation of capitalism" - Nightfreeze about Eve Online

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Redwolf

                      Chiang Kai-shek was corrupt and probably an idiot, there is no way he could have held any country together, much less a large one. He would be exactly like the South Vietnam regime.
                      .
                      However he did keep a country together. It is called Taiwan.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by AdrianE
                        However he did keep a country together. It is called Taiwan.
                        ..and without decades of civil war.
                        Barcsi János ispán vezérőrnagy
                        Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2003 & 2006


                        "Never pet a burning dog."

                        RECOMMENDED WEBSITES:
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                        • #13
                          Somehow a small island with a very homogenous population, supported by the U.S. Navy, strikes me as easier to hold together than a huge landmass with aggressive neighbors all around and different ethnic groups inside.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Redwolf
                            Somehow a small island with a very homogenous population, supported by the U.S. Navy, strikes me as easier to hold together than a huge landmass with aggressive neighbors all around and different ethnic groups inside.
                            Roger, but that doesn't describe Taiwan, which had a predominantly non-ethnic Chinese population, which suddenly swelled into the millions with refugees. I'm sure you're also aware that the US has also (unfortunately) reneged on our promise to defend Taiwan, but that was after Chang's day.
                            Barcsi János ispán vezérőrnagy
                            Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2003 & 2006


                            "Never pet a burning dog."

                            RECOMMENDED WEBSITES:
                            http://www.mormon.org
                            http://www.sca.org
                            http://www.scv.org/
                            http://www.scouting.org/

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                            • #15
                              China would probably have turned into a huge Vietnam, Korea or Afghanistan, being devided with some commmunist part(s) and a huge war going on with the communist block and the West supporting and pulling here and there.

                              Chiang Kai-shek was corrupt and probably an idiot, there is no way he could have held any country together, much less a large one. He would be exactly like the South Vietnam regime.

                              We are talking decades of civil war here.
                              I highly doubt that if the Communists were defeated that China would have been unstable because their were only two major groups in China that could have run the country. The Communists and the Nationalists. Chiang Kai-shek had run much China for several years under less than ideal conditions. (Unless you consider fighting a civil war and another country at the same time ideal)

                              Somehow a small island with a very homogenous population, supported by the U.S. Navy, strikes me as easier to hold together than a huge landmass with aggressive neighbors all around and different ethnic groups inside.
                              Tiawan is not a small island and I doubt that the natives were happy to see all the troops that Chaing Kai-shek brought.

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