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  • Germany decides to finish the British

    For this what-if, several conditions apply. I'm putting these on it mainly to prevent it from devolving into fields afar from the original topic.

    Russia / Stalin and Germany / Hitler remain at peace, even as they fortify their new border with each other. There is no invasion of Russia by Germany, nor an invasion of the Reich by Russia. They continue to trade as they have been, unabated.

    Germany avoids war with the US to the extent of not declaring one against the US as happened originally. The US might still declare war on Germany, but that will have to be argued conclusively.

    Lend-Lease to Britain still occurs.

    In this scenario, Hitler decides that he will do what it takes to bring Britain to the negotiating table and concentrates on defeating that nation. That includes, but isn't limited to:

    The U-boat war and commerce raiding is stepped up. More effort is put into the Luftwaffe putting maritime patrol and attack aircraft in service.

    The KM is given more funding and begins to build ships and boats to support an eventual invasion of England.

    The Luftwaffe pushes development of a next generation of aircraft suitable to a "strategic" air war against Britain.

    The Wehrmacht is tasked with defeating Britain in the Mediterranean when Italy fails to do so.

    That's the starting point so-to-speak.

    So, the Germans continue to prepare for a Seelöwe invasion eventually. They might put the He 100D in production as an escort fighter to supplement or replace the Me 109. This would give them the equivalent of a P-51 by 1941 for use over Britain. (Yes, its range is less but it's still about 50% greater than an Me 109 and probably could have doubled the 109 eventually). The FW 190 is put into production when it comes available.
    Bombers like the Hs 130, He 277 (aka He 177B), and maybe an early Ju 488 are put into production. The Me 264 with reduced range is developed as a heavy bomber.

    There are possibly others that could go into production too.

    The Germans put more effort into electronic warfare and navigation aids for night bombing as the British did.

    With the U-boat war ramping up, it could look very bleak for Britain in 1941 - 42 as the number of U-boats at sea increases. Increased Luftwaffe air activity over the Bay of Biscay prevents Coastal Command from attacking U-boats on a regular basis as they transit to and from patrol.

    In the Med, it's likely that given the full attention of the Wehrmacht, that Egypt falls and the Mediterranean is an Axis pond. If the Wehrmacht, not having to do anything in the East, they send say 3 panzer and 1 or 2 panzergrenadier divisions to N. Africa immediately, they'd crush what the British have there. They could easily send several grossraumtransport units to supply them and even possibly railway engineers to build rail lines in Libya.

    So, no Britain and Germany are locked into a strategic bombing war with both sides on the offensive as well as having to defend their own airspace.

    The question is... What happens when Japan enters the war and smashes the British in the CBI like they historically did?
    Here you have Britain having lost Egypt (easily imaginable against the whole Wehrmacht. Even Malta might have gone down) and control of the Med, facing an aerial onslaught at home, and now a collapse in Asia, with the U-boat war going poorly. It might have been enough to decide on a negotiated peace...

  • #2
    ACG. The place to air Anglophobic wet dreams.

    Paul
    ‘Tis said his form is tiny, yet
    All human ills he can subdue,
    Or with a bauble or medal
    Can win mans heart for you;
    And many a blessing know to stew
    To make a megloamaniac bright;
    Give honour to the dainty Corse,
    The Pixie is a little shite.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Dibble201Bty View Post
      ACG. The place to air Anglophobic wet dreams.

      Paul
      Not at all. This is a chance for all the fanboi's to pile on. Feel free to slam my opening position (you know I can take the opposite tack here but haven't...).

      Comment


      • #4
        I'm sure we have this one before

        Britain probably loses Malta and Tobruk but unlikely the Alamein position and therefore the Middle East secure.

        Large scale daylight air raids on UK end much the same way they did August-September 1940, night raids continue - tens of thousands more dead British civvies - but improving night defences sees a steadily increasing toll on the Lw.

        War at sea is costlier and harder but no Lend-Lease to the Soviets releases assets and resources to aid making it sustainable.

        Germany gets sucked into war it is least well equipped for - a materiel struggle in Africa.

        The Soviet military gets steadily Juggernautier.

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        • #5
          One huge flaw to all of this - Germany doesn't have an answer to the RN and without this there is no chance of a sealion. Axis forces in North Africa are still hobbled by by logistics factors as the ability to use maritime transport is severely limited and land supply lines become hopelessly extended.
          Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
          Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

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          • #6
            Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
            Not at all. This is a chance for all the fanboi's to pile on. Feel free to slam my opening position (you know I can take the opposite tack here but haven't...).
            I see! So I beat your fanboism into second place and you start crowing.

            Anyway! The Spitfire Mk IX becomes available at around the same time as the Fw190, de Havilland and Whittle/Power Jets are given full backing from the Air ministry in 1935, and it's goodnight 'and day' luftwaffe 'again'.

            Paul
            Last edited by Dibble201Bty; 30 Sep 16, 04:50.
            ‘Tis said his form is tiny, yet
            All human ills he can subdue,
            Or with a bauble or medal
            Can win mans heart for you;
            And many a blessing know to stew
            To make a megloamaniac bright;
            Give honour to the dainty Corse,
            The Pixie is a little shite.

            Comment


            • #7
              The scenario presented is all-to-credible and goes to illustrate what a near-run thing WW 2 might have been. To paint it even worse : Hitler persuades Franco to bring Spain into the conflict: effectively closing the Mediterranean and making the Western Approaches to Britain yet more hazardous.
              An invasion of the U.K would still be a risky proposition, but it would probably be unnecessary.
              Last edited by BELGRAVE; 30 Sep 16, 04:58.
              "I dogmatise and am contradicted, and in this conflict of opinions and sentiments I find delight".
              Samuel Johnson.

              Comment


              • #8
                Operation Felix

                I agree with Belgrave that indeed we do not have to stray too far from historical reality here.

                Realising that without the means to cross the Channel and invade England,
                OKW took on the mission to look for other ways to force Britain to be more amenable to Hitler diplomatic offers in summer 1940.
                The intent was to make it so difficult to maintain the British Empire that peace with Germany would by far the more profitable option.
                The best way to achieve that was to close off the Straits of Gibraltar, forcing the Brits to sail around Africa rather than use the shortcut of Mediterranean and the Suez Canal.
                This was to be achieved by diplomatic and military (Operation Felix) means in summer 1940.

                I haven't looked into it too deeply, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Felix
                http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...ighlight=Felix
                but Felix looks more realistic than Seelöwe.
                BoRG

                You may not be interested in War, but War is interested in You - Leon Trotski, June 1919.

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                • #9
                  What happens with Japan? There is no way Japan is going to go to war without a guarantee that Germany will declare war on the US. Thus Japan stays neutral.

                  Indian army, Anzacs and the U.K. Forces in the Far East are released for transfer to Europe. No loss of far eastern colonies enables their resciurces to be put to the war effort vs Grtmany.
                  "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Major Sennef View Post
                    I agree with Belgrave that indeed we do not have to stray too far from historical reality here.
                    Spain never joined the war even before Barbarossa OTL so why would it now?

                    Franco had already won his war, he wasn't going to go through it again for Germany. All Spains oil and a lot of its food came from the Americas - can Germany replace that?

                    Besides which, playing the powers off proved pretty lucrative for the regime.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                      Spain never joined the war even before Barbarossa OTL so why would it now?

                      Franco had already won his war, he wasn't going to go through it again for Germany. All Spains oil and a lot of its food came from the Americas - can Germany replace that?

                      Besides which, playing the powers off proved pretty lucrative for the regime.
                      I can agree with all of the above
                      I was rather thinking of Operation Felix.
                      As I understand Felix, its working assumption was that the Spanish forces would be unsympathetic to an Axis advance against Spain.
                      BoRG

                      You may not be interested in War, but War is interested in You - Leon Trotski, June 1919.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Gooner View Post
                        Spain never joined the war even before Barbarossa OTL so why would it now?

                        Franco had already won his war, he wasn't going to go through it again for Germany. All Spains oil and a lot of its food came from the Americas - can Germany replace that?

                        Besides which, playing the powers off proved pretty lucrative for the regime.
                        But we're bending history anyway, and it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that ,if the defeat of Britain was,indeed,Hitler's over-riding objective- which it never was-then bribing Franco might have been achieved.In this scenario,Barbarossa never happened, and the USA remained neutral.
                        Notwithstanding continuing Spanish neutrality, with the USSR hostile and the resources of most of Europe at Hitler's disposal, Britain's task would be hard.
                        Last edited by BELGRAVE; 30 Sep 16, 10:09.
                        "I dogmatise and am contradicted, and in this conflict of opinions and sentiments I find delight".
                        Samuel Johnson.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Surrey View Post
                          What happens with Japan? There is no way Japan is going to go to war without a guarantee that Germany will declare war on the US. Thus Japan stays neutral.

                          Indian army, Anzacs and the U.K. Forces in the Far East are released for transfer to Europe. No loss of far eastern colonies enables their resciurces to be put to the war effort vs Grtmany.
                          But how could continuing Japanese neutrality be depended upon ? Garrisons,particularly Singapore, still had to be maintained east of Suez regardless.
                          "I dogmatise and am contradicted, and in this conflict of opinions and sentiments I find delight".
                          Samuel Johnson.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BELGRAVE View Post
                            But how could continuing Japanese neutrality be depended upon ? Garrisons,particularly Singapore, still had to be maintained east of Suez regardless.
                            To a limited extant but for example most Australian troops were pulled back to the Far East due to the war with Japan. If Japan stays neutral they are free to go to Europe. Likewise the Indian army.

                            Think of how important Australia was in ww1. In ww2 because of the Japanese they couldn't contribute anything like as much to the war with Germany.
                            "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by BELGRAVE View Post
                              But we're bending history anyway, and it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that ,if the defeat of Britain was,indeed,Hitler's over-riding objective- which it never was-then bribing Franco might have been achieved.In this scenario,Barbarossa never happened, and the USA remained neutral.
                              Notwithstanding continuing Spanish neutrality, with the USSR hostile and the resources of most of Europe at Hitler's disposal, Britain's task would be hard.
                              Germany was struggling to keep its conquests feed and supplied and never really harnessed their production to a significant extent. Productivity isn't that high amongst slaves when compared to free workers. The productivity of workers in occupied France was lower than in Germany.
                              "To be free is better than to be unfree - always."

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