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  • Mexico 1868

    Napoleon III instead of yielding to diplomatic pressure from the USA does not withdraw French troops from Mexico but reinforces them. The surge enables Maximilian to finally defeat Juárez's forces and consolidate his rule. Does Johnson, president of a war wearied USA intervene? Would the USA be prepared for war with France and would the public be prepared to support such a war? How strongly was the Monro doctrine held?
    Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
    Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

  • #2
    Not required, ...

    Originally posted by MarkV View Post
    Napoleon III instead of yielding to diplomatic pressure from the USA does not withdraw French troops from Mexico but reinforces them. The surge enables Maximilian to finally defeat Juárez's forces and consolidate his rule. Does Johnson, president of a war wearied USA intervene? Would the USA be prepared for war with France and would the public be prepared to support such a war? How strongly was the Monro doctrine held?
    ... given the military force and preparations the French require to support Maximilian to defeat Juarez, von Bismarck the opportunist seizes his chance to goad the French earlier than he did historically, and the Franco-Prussian War of 1870 happens in 1868. Johnson had enough on his plate anyway.
    "I am Groot"
    - Groot

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Marmat View Post
      ... given the military force and preparations the French require to support Maximilian to defeat Juarez, von Bismarck the opportunist seizes his chance to goad the French earlier than he did historically, and the Franco-Prussian War of 1870 happens in 1868. Johnson had enough on his plate anyway.
      Possibly if they were up to their neck in Mexico they would have been much more cautious about taking Bismark's bait. Napoleon thought he could win in 1870
      Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
      Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

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      • #4
        Originally posted by MarkV View Post
        Possibly if they were up to their neck in Mexico they would have been much more cautious about taking Bismark's bait. Napoleon thought he could win in 1870
        Or, even more weirdly, the French are goaded, Germany stomps them, and Bismarck makes turning over Mexico to Germany part of the peace. Then, twenty years later, the US and Germany have a war...

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samoan_crisis

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        • #5
          Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
          Or, even more weirdly, the French are goaded, Germany stomps them, and Bismarck makes turning over Mexico to Germany part of the peace. Then, twenty years later, the US and Germany have a war...

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samoan_crisis
          Naw Bismark wasn't interested in anything much outside Europe. Samoa was after his time. It was Kaiser Bill wanted a maritime empire like his grandmother's. If it didn't have a land border with Germany Bismark wouldn't have wanted the trouble.
          Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
          Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

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          • #6
            But, my version could make for a very fun "What if" wargame scenario...

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            • #7
              Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
              But, my version could make for a very fun "What if" wargame scenario...
              It sure does!

              Now, the Union had close to half a million men under arms at the close of the Civil War. How many could France have put there?

              Germans in 1869 are another matter. Hell, with their hard-ass methods they might even have made Mexico something viable, instead of the perennial mess that it has always been.

              But... why are we waiting until 1868?
              "Why is the Rum gone?"

              -Captain Jack

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              • #8
                Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
                But, my version could make for a very fun "What if" wargame scenario...
                Very true.

                Though that would be some very interesting 'what ifs' going on there......a war in 1889 or so.......
                Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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                • #9
                  Prussia/Germany at that time had no worthwhile navy - how do they sustain an invasion of Mexico in the face of a US navy? I draw your attention to the sub title of this forum "The plausible what if's of military history."
                  Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe (H G Wells)
                  Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens (Friedrich von Schiller)

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by MarkV View Post
                    Prussia/Germany at that time had no worthwhile navy - how do they sustain an invasion of Mexico in the face of a US navy? I draw your attention to the sub title of this forum "The plausible what if's of military history."
                    In 1890 they had a navy that was actually almost on par with the US Navy. True, in 1870 they didn't...

                    If you add that in the twenty years Germany occupies Mexico they modernize and properly train the existing Mexican army along with providing Prussian / German officers, it could be a pretty good military force. Yes, the US would have the advantage of numbers, if not quality, but it would present an interesting campaign much like a larger version of Germany in East Africa in WW 1.

                    In the naval war, what Britain did or didn't do would be highly relevant here. The US would have to build a fleet, which they could do, and could have out built Germany. But, that would take several years, at a minimum, to do.

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                    • #11
                      France did it the sneaky way, coming in while we were distracted with the Civil War. Once that is over, the Colonial powers can't just shuttle armies in and out of Mexico.

                      Now, dealing with 1868 ... the idea is that the US would not fight if France kept a large Army in Mexico, right?
                      I doubt that, there were whole Regiments that never saw action, and the western expansion was in full swing. Monitors can be used in the Gulf of Mexico and we didn't have to sell Dunderberg to France that year. Unlikely, in view of all this.

                      So, yeah, could have been a good fight, but I think that Max would have ended up going the same way.
                      "Why is the Rum gone?"

                      -Captain Jack

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by The Exorcist View Post
                        France did it the sneaky way, coming in while we were distracted with the Civil War. Once that is over, the Colonial powers can't just shuttle armies in and out of Mexico.

                        Now, dealing with 1868 ... the idea is that the US would not fight if France kept a large Army in Mexico, right?
                        I doubt that, there were whole Regiments that never saw action, and the western expansion was in full swing. Monitors can be used in the Gulf of Mexico and we didn't have to sell Dunderberg to France that year. Unlikely, in view of all this.

                        So, yeah, could have been a good fight, but I think that Max would have ended up going the same way.
                        I doubt the US would have been willing to go to war in Mexico for a third time, especially right after the ACW got done wiping out a big chunk of a generation. The anti-war sentiment was already pretty high, and I don't think even Lincoln could have sold a war with France over Mexico. Johnson was universally hated by both parties, and he didn't have a chance in hell of pulling it off.
                        Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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