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Japan Invades The USSR on June 29th 1941

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  • #31
    The Soviets themselves didn't declare war on Japan until well after Germany was defeated in 1945, despite calls for them to do so in 1941. Even then, they made sure they had the means to fight a war before embarking on one.
    Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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    • #32
      Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
      Maybe, but I'm not sure if the stopping of reinforcements from the Far East would have been enough to guarantee a German victory in the West. It could have lengthened the fighting, but the Soviets would have still won in the end, especially with British and potentially American support.
      The Soviets wouldn't be able to draw reserves from the Far East and would have to find other reserves to stabilize the front at Baikal (likely scenario), so its really two hits on Soviet strength. That also includes the very important issue of ammunition expenditure, considering the Soviets were at critical levels during 1941 and most of 1942. When you add in another strategic level theatre of consumption I think this is where the Japanese attack could have the most effect on Barbarossa and Blau. Soviet formations cannot fight effectively without the means to do so obviously. I believe this could have had a decisive effect on the political dynamic.
      Again, there are no guarantees but a Japanese attack could have made the difference within the window of late 1941 through 1942. After that, its all over.
      "Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics"
      -Omar Bradley
      "Not everyone who studies logistics is a professional logistician, and there is no way to understand when you don't know what you don't know."
      -Anonymous US Army logistician

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      • #33
        Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
        How would the Red Army have gotten to the Far East? It took them 2 months to build up for a limited offensive at Khalkhin Gol, and longer still for their 1945 operation with considerable difficulty at that. Bear in mind the 1945 buildup occurred during peacetime where Japan was concerned. There was no effort made by the IJA to interdict the Russian trains. If Japan succeeded in taking the Soviet Far East in 1941, it would have been virtually impossible for Red Army to have taken it back for want of adequate transport and supply. As I said earlier, the logistics just weren't there. The only way the Soviets could have won would have been to beat the Japanese to an atom bomb, which even historically they didn't have until 1949. Bottom line is if the Far East fell in 1941, the Soviets weren't taking it back.
        The Red Army circa 1944/45 was more mobile & able to supply an invasion force than the IJA ever was. They had transport & supply wildly in excess of what they would need to defeat Japan once Germany was defeated If Japan can take the territory Russia can take it back. There won't be any rush. They can move through Manchuria & even Mongolia & hit vulnerable flanks. They can also supply vast quantities of equipment to Chinese armies to tie down Japanese troops. There is no way Japan can defend an area that big & vulnerable against the most powerful Army in the world.
        Human beings are the only creatures on Earth that claim a god and the only living thing that behaves like it hasn't got one - Hunter S. Thompson

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        • #34
          Originally posted by BF69 View Post
          The Red Army circa 1944/45 was more mobile & able to supply an invasion force than the IJA ever was. They had transport & supply wildly in excess of what they would need to defeat Japan once Germany was defeated If Japan can take the territory Russia can take it back. There won't be any rush. They can move through Manchuria & even Mongolia & hit vulnerable flanks. They can also supply vast quantities of equipment to Chinese armies to tie down Japanese troops.
          The Red Army could never have gotten to the Far East in great enough strength fast enough. They had only a single rail line to work with, and it would have been cut hundreds of miles from where they needed to be.

          S.M. Shtemenko's "The Soviet General Staff at War, 1941-1945" states that even without Japanese interference, just getting enough men and materiel to the border of Manchuria over a single railroad was a formidable challenge in and of itself. The 6th Guards Army exemplified this problem:

          "The position of the 6th Guards Army caused particular concern. The trains carrying its troops and equipment were falling farther and farther behind schedule every day. The army had no motor transport, which had been left behind at its previous dislocation. The army was short of 2,274 units according to its regular strength, but since it had been reinforced with two divisions of motorized infantry the shortage actually totalled 3,000."
          Consequently, any campaign into Manchuria had to be short and sharp. Stavka estimated that the fighting needed to come to an end after a maximum of 8 weeks. Historically, the Red Army's supply lines even became stretched just over a week into the operation, following a buildup that lasted from April to August. Again, bear in mind that all these things took place under peacetime conditions.

          On the subject of mobility, the difference was not that great, if it even existed at all. This was precisely the type of battle the IJA was designed for, and against the Soviets to boot. Both sides were not motorized to the standards of the Americans and British and still relied heavily on animal transport to fill the gap. Vehicle density was comparable: for example, during the 1945 Berlin offensive the 2.5 million men of the 1st and 2nd Belosrussian Fronts, together with Konev's 1st Ukrainian Front, were supported by a force of about 95,000 motor vehicles, many made in the US (Source: Earl F. Ziemke's "Battle for Berlin: End of the Third Reich" pg. 71). By comparison, in late 1941 the Kwantung Army's 760,000 men had almost 30,000 motor vehicles assigned to them (Source: Alvin D. Coox, "Nomonhan: Japan against Russia," pg. 1052). In this specific example, although the forces discussed were separated by 4 years, the ratio of men to vehicles in both the Japanese and Soviet Armies was almost identical.


          Originally posted by BF69 View Post
          There is no way Japan can defend an area that big & vulnerable against the most powerful Army in the world.
          You mean the US Army?
          Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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