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  • U.S. Civil War 2016 questions

    If the U.S.A. were to devolve into a civil war...

    1. Would it just be two factions?
    2. Where would the divisions happen? Along state lines, or more of an insurgency?
    3. Would the armed forces side with the federals or would there be a division here as well? What would the rate of desertion be?
    AHIKS - Play by (E)mail board wargaming since 1965.
    The Blitz - Play by Email computer wargaming.

  • #2
    What would be the cause. Not to mention that it would never happen because, deep down inside, the internet revolutionaries know that we still have it better than anyone else.

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    • #3
      I could see it happen. What if the grid went down?

      I see it as the rural folks against the urbanites...

      And it wouldn't be pretty...
      Credo quia absurdum.


      Quantum mechanics describes nature as absurd from the point of view of common sense. And yet it fully agrees with experiment. So I hope you can accept nature as She is - absurd! - Richard Feynman

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      • #4
        Generally in "democracies" civil wars come about as the result of absolutely pissing off the middle and upper middle class off. That is, those in society with a real stake in things and who are reasonably well educated... Business owners, college educated, that sort.

        "The Rich" and elites in a society usually want the status quo so they don't start revolutions. The poor don't have the means to launch one.

        Some I could see:

        The government steps in to nationalize many businesses and start socializing the economy.

        Government regulation and taxation goes from onerous to oppressive.

        The government begins a land grab of people's private property.

        A national election is obviously rigged and the outcome a fraud. Those elected say they are the legitimate leadership of the country. Protests break out. These get violent and ugly. Resistance expands as the government starts taking drastic and vicious measures to put it down. A civil war results based on how people in various states respond to the election fraud.

        There is a racial divide and one faction tries to establish a separate nation like Atzalan (eg., Hispanics in the Southwest and California try to form their mythical state or the Blacks declare a separatist state, or Native Americans like the Five Nations do the same).

        Another possibility would be a major disaster, most likely natural. A good one would be Yellowstone erupts. That would throw the county into total chaos and likely a localized bunch of wars over resources by state, and even locality.

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        • #5
          Yes, all of the above... but Yellowstone is pretty far-fetched.

          And when it happens, what about Hawaii and Alaska?

          I think Hawaii would try to go its own way, and be swallowed up by China, and Russia might try for Alaska.

          That would probably be the extent of it, once the various limits on national aggression enforced by the US are gone, more than half the world would be at each other's throats, big time.
          "Why is the Rum gone?"

          -Captain Jack

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          • #6
            Originally posted by The Exorcist View Post
            Yes, all of the above... but Yellowstone is pretty far-fetched.
            Actually, not. The last major eruption was about 640,000 years ago and one has occurred pretty regularly every 600 to 800,000 years in the past. Current seismic activity has increased in Yellowstone almost exponentially while the growth in the magma chamber (as determined by ground rise) is at an all time high. While the risk is low currently, it could happen...

            And when it happens, what about Hawaii and Alaska?

            I think Hawaii would try to go its own way, and be swallowed up by China, and Russia might try for Alaska.
            I think both could probably survive as separate nations if they nationalized the local military forces and such then strove to develop a local economy. In fact, Alaska might be better off in such a situation. They could grab all federal land, open the North Shelf to drilling, open areas now restricted to any activity to mining and such resulting in a booming economy and trade.

            That would probably be the extent of it, once the various limits on national aggression enforced by the US are gone, more than half the world would be at each other's throats, big time.
            I could see the West coast going its own way in a Yellowstone scenario with the Southwest and Texas along with some of the South forming their own country while the Plains and North Eastern US get clobbered by the volcano.

            Canada would have its issues in this too.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by johns624 View Post
              What would be the cause. Not to mention that it would never happen because, deep down inside, the internet revolutionaries know that we still have it better than anyone else.
              I have no delusions that it would happen. That's why I place the question in ALTERNATE Timelines, rather than North America.
              AHIKS - Play by (E)mail board wargaming since 1965.
              The Blitz - Play by Email computer wargaming.

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              • #8
                I cant see this happening outside of some natural disaster. The Yellowstone eruption would be, in my not so humble opinion, a game over for the US and perhaps the world. A more realistic scenario would be a megaquake at New Madrid or megatsunami from the erution and landslide of Cumbre Vieja on the volcanic ocean island of La Palma, in the Canary Islands, Spain. This would be because of the disruption to all aspects of American life. I would hope that people would pull together, but I am not naive enough to know that 'disruptive' elements might cause local communities to go into lockdown. Then depending on how long it takes the Federal government to get its act together (and how it does the reincorporating) than resistance might spring up.

                Just for snit and piggles; a long time ago (when I had delusions of adequacy) I wrote a quick (one computer page long) short story that made people think it was set in the US Civil War (1861-1865) till Atlanta got nuked.
                Eagles may fly; but weasels aren't sucked into jet engines!

                "I'm not expendable; I'm not stupid and I'm not going." - Kerr Avon, Blake's 7

                What didn't kill us; didn't make us smarter.

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                • #9
                  So, this would end up a survivalist situation? Not state on state along political lines but enclaves out for their own survival and competing for resources?
                  AHIKS - Play by (E)mail board wargaming since 1965.
                  The Blitz - Play by Email computer wargaming.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by RichardS View Post
                    ... A more realistic scenario would be a megaquake at New Madrid or megatsunami from the erution and landslide of Cumbre Vieja on the volcanic ocean island of La Palma, in the Canary Islands, Spain....
                    THAT one is a likely one, and I'm not sure the quake would have to be a 'mega'.

                    What you would have is a super-sized version of the 2004 Indian ocean disaster, killing about 50 times as many people (a low guesstemate) and smiting the coast of west Europe as well.
                    If there is a natural disaster that would trigger global chaos, that would be the one.
                    "Why is the Rum gone?"

                    -Captain Jack

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