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Franco loses in Spain.

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  • #16
    Hitler would go into Spain-he has no other choice. He's planning all along to hit Russia, and the danger of the Allies coming through Spain is too great to allow. Its much the same situation as Norway was.

    Since he knows this before the war starts, the invasion of the west will be a two-stage effort, stage I the Battle of France as in RL, followed by a rest period and then Phase II, the invasion of Spain.

    As noted, the Battle of Britain would be muted if at all. Sealion would never be considered.

    Even with the Miracle at Dunkirk the Brits are in no shape to assist Spain significantly. Gibraltar will fall.

    Now, if Hitler puts Franco into power, things might be OK. If not, the partisan issue may really create massive headaches for the Germans.

    Land-based aircraft will create problems for Allied convoys. The U boats will benefit from not having to deploy boats to the Med and Gibraltar area.

    I don't see much difference to RL after say 1941 if Franco gets Spain in hand. Otherwise the area will be a massive manpower drain.

    As mentioned above there will some real resources benefits.
    Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

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    • #17
      If Stalin was smart, which he was, he would order the Spanish government to help the French anyway they could after Dunkirk without actually entering the fighting.
      If that means the French army could retreat into Spain, Reynauds hand in 'discussions' with Petain would be strengthened. Perhaps the French fight on.
      The Germans were still several hundred miles from the Spanish border when the Armistice negotiations started.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
        I don't see much difference to RL after say 1941 if Franco gets Spain in hand. Otherwise the area will be a massive manpower drain.

        As mentioned above there will some real resources benefits.
        There would have been some massive resource penalties: Spain was importing fuel and food. Nazi Germany was critically short of both.

        IIRC the Spanish required 40,000 tons a month of fuel (or at least that is what they demanded at Hendeye). If you look at the US Strategic Bombing survey's number on German fuel stockpiles and subtract 40k tons/month you'll see that Germany depletes its oil stockpile by early/mid 1944 if it is supporting Spain. That is a very good way to lose a war quickly.

        Its a similar thing for food. Spain needs more food than Germany can provide. Germany had some poor harvests in 1941 and had to cut rations in 1942 (IIRC).

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Gooner View Post
          If Stalin was smart, which he was, he would order the Spanish government to help the French anyway they could after Dunkirk without actually entering the fighting.
          If that means the French army could retreat into Spain, Reynauds hand in 'discussions' with Petain would be strengthened. Perhaps the French fight on.
          The Germans were still several hundred miles from the Spanish border when the Armistice negotiations started.
          Would Russia be able to order Spain to join the war?

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          • #20
            Not trying to change the scenariol, but I think that a descent into civil war (again) would be likely as socialists, anarchists, communists, regionalists (Basques, etc.) et al. fought one another for control.

            You might even see the disintegration of Spain into a series of smaller entities.

            If any of the above occurred I suspect that Hitler would just have left Spain alone as I doubt they would have posed much of a risk to Germany.

            Even as an intact Communist political entity I suspect that Spain's military wouldn't have posed much of a threat without substantial foreign aid. A strong defensive line in the Pyrenees would probably serve as a substantial defence against any Spanish/Allied attack in the short term.

            Cheers

            Porty

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            • #21
              Not trying to change the scenariol, but I think that a descent into civil war (again) would be likely as socialists, anarchists, communists, regionalists (Basques, etc.) et al. fought one another for control.

              You might even see the disintegration of Spain into a series of smaller entities.

              If any of the above occurred I suspect that Hitler would just have left Spain alone as I doubt they would have posed much of a risk to Germany.

              Even as an intact Communist political entity I suspect that Spain's military wouldn't have posed much of a threat without substantial foreign aid. A strong defensive line in the Pyrenees would probably serve as a substantial defence against any Spanish/Allied attack in the short term.

              Cheers

              Porty

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