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  • Post WW1 after a neggociated peace

    The US stays neutral. The rising losses on the Western Front finally lead to a negotiated peace-token bits of territory change hands, a colony or two is reflagged.

    The war ends.

    A-H and the Ottoman Empire are still terminally ill. Germany, France, and the UK are exhausted, although Germany now holds a big chunk of Poland and the Ukraine due to the Russian peace treaty.

    How does the post-war world shape up?

    There's no Friekorps experience, no 'stabbed in the back' legend. Adolph Hitler could go on to become a career NCO in the Imperial German Army. Or not.

    Ideas?
    Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

  • #2
    One of the biggest changes is that Germany by 1940 would have represented a real and serious challenger to British seapower.

    I could easily see Germany being a party to the Washington Naval treaty and ending up with 4 battleships and 4 battlecruisers out of it.

    Say, the 4 Baden class, Mackensen and the 3 Derfflinger's.
    Building 2 or 3 carriers is likely if they wanted to keep up. Maybe one converted from a Mackensen class as there was a second unit about 18 months from completion when the war ended. That would be like Lexington and Saratoga or the three Furious conversions.

    This means with these ships appropriately modernized in 1940 the Germans have 4 22 to 24 knot battleships, 4 30 knot battle cruisers, and 2 or 3 30+ knot carriers with 100+ aircraft aboard minimally.

    If their naval policy was not a commerce war using raiders and U-boats but rather a naval superiority one they could really have challenged the British in a second war.

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    • #3
      Only defeat in the field would allow the UK and France to agree to any peace that left Germany in possession of any war gains and an intact military backed by an unrestricted arms industry.The greater Germany you posit would have been an unstoppable monster that could not be allowed to exist.Return to 1914 borders restricted size of army and the destruction of any offensive equipment were the bottom line.
      Greater Germany would have largely demobalised but pumped money into aircraft and tank research,the fleet would have expanded as would Empire navel bases more subs and aircraft carriers.The East would have been exploited,no food or raw materiel shortages for the next war that Germany might have been forced into(thats the replacement for the stab in the back story) or finds expedient.The UK and French Empires barely managed to contain Germany in the First WW,what would they do in 1930 or 1942 when Germany gets the Bomb.)
      Wack tac mac hey.
      Regards.
      Grishnak.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by grishnak View Post
        Only defeat in the field would allow the UK and France to agree to any peace that left Germany in possession of any war gains and an intact military backed by an unrestricted arms industry.The greater Germany you posit would have been an unstoppable monster that could not be allowed to exist.Return to 1914 borders restricted size of army and the destruction of any offensive equipment were the bottom line.
        Greater Germany would have largely demobalised but pumped money into aircraft and tank research,the fleet would have expanded as would Empire navel bases more subs and aircraft carriers.The East would have been exploited,no food or raw materiel shortages for the next war that Germany might have been forced into(thats the replacement for the stab in the back story) or finds expedient.The UK and French Empires barely managed to contain Germany in the First WW,what would they do in 1930 or 1942 when Germany gets the Bomb.)
        Germany using their new Strosstruppen tactics defeated Russia. They then defeated Italy. They nearly defeated Britain and France with them. Without the infusion of US troops France was not going to be able to go on the offensive after the Kaiser offensives of 1918.
        French generals knew committing French troops (not US ones and French colonials) to offensives would result in a second mutiny that would undo the army. Britain was being drained white.
        Tanks would not make the difference.

        That leaves the real possibility of a negotiated peace.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by grishnak View Post
          Only defeat in the field would allow the UK and France to agree to any peace that left Germany in possession of any war gains and an intact military backed by an unrestricted arms industry.The greater Germany you posit would have been an unstoppable monster that could not be allowed to exist.Return to 1914 borders restricted size of army and the destruction of any offensive equipment were the bottom line.
          Greater Germany would have largely demobalised but pumped money into aircraft and tank research,the fleet would have expanded as would Empire navel bases more subs and aircraft carriers.The East would have been exploited,no food or raw materiel shortages for the next war that Germany might have been forced into(thats the replacement for the stab in the back story) or finds expedient.The UK and French Empires barely managed to contain Germany in the First WW,what would they do in 1930 or 1942 when Germany gets the Bomb.)
          They wouldn't really have a choice. In a negotiated peace, the Germans are going to have to give up their gains in the west, but they'll keep what they took in the East. There's nothing France and Britain would be able to do to stop them.

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          • #6
            But it isnt a negotiated peace ,its unconditional surrender without reparations,if Germany had won in 1914 she would (as in 1870) have largely evacuated from Belgian and French territory and imposed swinging reparations on the UK and France likely taking parts of their fleets and bits of their Empires and then taken what they wanted from Russia.To the Germans this is one more victory in a line that had yet to end.I also suspect that even the rumor of such a settlement would have brought America into the war. Didnt the US government know about the Kaisers plan to land several divisions on the east coast at the turn of the century,what plans would a German superstate hatch and bring to fruition?
            Wack tac mac hey.
            Regards.
            Grishnak.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by grishnak View Post
              But it isnt a negotiated peace ,its unconditional surrender without reparations,if Germany had won in 1914 she would (as in 1870) have largely evacuated from Belgian and French territory and imposed swinging reparations on the UK and France likely taking parts of their fleets and bits of their Empires and then taken what they wanted from Russia.To the Germans this is one more victory in a line that had yet to end.I also suspect that even the rumor of such a settlement would have brought America into the war. Didnt the US government know about the Kaisers plan to land several divisions on the east coast at the turn of the century,what plans would a German superstate hatch and bring to fruition?
              Germany isn't the only country that imposes harsh peace terms on defeated nations. America isn't going to go to war to keep Germany from becoming the dominent power in Europe. No more than they did with Napoleon. As long as Germany isn't going to attack, they'll stay neutral.

              Comment


              • #8
                Another interesting facet of this is let's say Germany demands their pre-war colonial possessions back. Does Japan essentially get nothing out of the war?
                This means that Germany has colonies in Southern Africa past 1918 and having a fleet could potentially make them viable and defensible.
                That in turn opens a whole can of worms for a future conflict.

                Then as somebody noted, what if no Hitler? Germany will certainly discover nuclear power and atomic bombs first in that scenario. A militarist Germany with nukes is a real war winner for them.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
                  Another interesting facet of this is let's say Germany demands their pre-war colonial possessions back. Does Japan essentially get nothing out of the war?
                  This means that Germany has colonies in Southern Africa past 1918 and having a fleet could potentially make them viable and defensible.
                  That in turn opens a whole can of worms for a future conflict.

                  Then as somebody noted, what if no Hitler? Germany will certainly discover nuclear power and atomic bombs first in that scenario. A militarist Germany with nukes is a real war winner for them.
                  What war though? If Germany doesn't lose the Great War, Hitler probably won't become the leader of Germany. I'm more curious about what Stalin would do with a large and powerful Germany next door.

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                  • #10
                    There would have been a rematch at some point. It is a virtual certainty.

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                    • #11
                      After the murder of the Romanoffs Stalin would probably had a very short tenure .
                      Wack tac mac hey.
                      Regards.
                      Grishnak.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        The only way that I can imagine a negotiated settlement of WW1 is if both sides simultaneously believe that they are about to lose. So let us imagine a scenario: WW1 runs more or less as OTL until towards the end of 1916 when the Kaiser and the whole civil government refuse to allow unrestricted submarine warfare and accept the resignation of anyone who disagrees. Then the war runs on more or less as OTL for another year except that Britain is stronger but is having increasing difficult paying for goods from America and the blockade is less effective. Russia collapses as OTL and the Central Powers defeat Romania and win Caporetto as OTL.

                        Now in 1918 Germany is starving but slightly less than OTL. The German Army High Command decides to launch a massive offensive as OTL, predicting victory. This wouldn't necessarily occur because there is no huge American Army arriving, so they might decide to wait. I am assuming that arrogance and hunger cause them to try to win quickly. The offensive is defeated almost as OTL except that Britain and France call back their divisions from Italy to compensate for no Americans. The British then launch their own offensive, which is less effective than OTL but still pushes the Germans back. At some point in that the German High Command (Ludendorff ?) panics and demands that the German Government negotiate (possibly the Bulgarians break as OTL). We could even imagine problems in the High Seas Fleet as OTL.

                        Meanwhile, the British have completely run out of foreign exchange and are about to suffer economic collapse as American (and other neutral) suppliers are refusing to ship on credit (note that France had been living on British credit by 1917, so they are equally bust). Thus the Entente are very keen to agree a peace. As negotiations start, Italy launches its own offensive but without the British and French divisions of OTL and without Wilson's propaganda, the Austro-Hungarian Army holds the battle to another bloody draw.

                        The Germans do not realise that Britain is near economic collapse and the British do not realise that Germany is near revolution.

                        Now predict the treaty!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Mostlyharmless View Post
                          The only way that I can imagine a negotiated settlement of WW1 is if both sides simultaneously believe that they are about to lose. So let us imagine a scenario: WW1 runs more or less as OTL until towards the end of 1916 when the Kaiser and the whole civil government refuse to allow unrestricted submarine warfare and accept the resignation of anyone who disagrees. Then the war runs on more or less as OTL for another year except that Britain is stronger but is having increasing difficult paying for goods from America and the blockade is less effective. Russia collapses as OTL and the Central Powers defeat Romania and win Caporetto as OTL.

                          Now in 1918 Germany is starving but slightly less than OTL. The German Army High Command decides to launch a massive offensive as OTL, predicting victory. This wouldn't necessarily occur because there is no huge American Army arriving, so they might decide to wait. I am assuming that arrogance and hunger cause them to try to win quickly. The offensive is defeated almost as OTL except that Britain and France call back their divisions from Italy to compensate for no Americans. The British then launch their own offensive, which is less effective than OTL but still pushes the Germans back. At some point in that the German High Command (Ludendorff ?) panics and demands that the German Government negotiate (possibly the Bulgarians break as OTL). We could even imagine problems in the High Seas Fleet as OTL.

                          Meanwhile, the British have completely run out of foreign exchange and are about to suffer economic collapse as American (and other neutral) suppliers are refusing to ship on credit (note that France had been living on British credit by 1917, so they are equally bust). Thus the Entente are very keen to agree a peace. As negotiations start, Italy launches its own offensive but without the British and French divisions of OTL and without Wilson's propaganda, the Austro-Hungarian Army holds the battle to another bloody draw.

                          The Germans do not realise that Britain is near economic collapse and the British do not realise that Germany is near revolution.

                          Now predict the treaty!
                          Start your own thread. The question is not how it came to the indicated end, but rather what comes afterward.
                          Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

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                          • #14
                            Due to it's unprecedented string of naval victories the United States takes a key position alongside the kaiser at the negotiation table.
                            Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              That is some significant butterfly effect.

                              Negotiated peace means no crippling reparations for Germany. In fact, I could argue that Germany was better off than France and Germany.

                              A stronger Germany means more support for the White movement in the Russian Civil war which could be just enough for them to win control of Russia.

                              A Germany naval power at the Washington Treaty would put a wrench on the 5 : 5 : 3 ratio between UK, US, and Japan. UK would need more capital ships with a naval power in close proximity. The Anglo-Japanese alliance survives as the UK would want an ally to protect her Asian territories.

                              Germany will try and fail to get her Asian territories back from Japan.

                              No League of Nations as the US remains isolationist.

                              1920's still becomes a decade of prosperity but will include Germany.

                              Great Depression happens.

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