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Summer 1944 Soviet vs. Summer 1941 Axis

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  • Summer 1944 Soviet vs. Summer 1941 Axis

    It's summer 1941.

    Let's say that the Soviets were at the mature stage of their military development, and had tank armies, artillery corps, and generally advanced organization abroad instead of the paper tiger historically. They have the same strengths and weaknesses they had in 1944 but with 1941 era equipment.

    The Wehrmacht is still going to attack regardless.

    What would happen?

  • #2
    If the Soviet training, readiness and reliability of its forces and equipment is also on 1944 level then the Wehrmacht would be finished years earlier. No time for a Holocaust as well. That would be great! T34 vs Pz38 and PzIIIF/G/H under these circumstances? LoL!
    What about deployment of Soviet border troops?

    posted from mobile
    One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

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    • #3
      The Soviets bend but don't break. The Red Army and the Wehrmacht both take heavy losses, but the Red Army crushes the Wehrmacht. Remember Barbarossa was 3.7 million axis soldiers. The Red Army in 1944 on the Eastern Front was 6.8 million. The Russians would now be equal to the Germans in infantry equipment, superior in Airpower, Tanks, Artillery, and Logistics. The Germans would still be able to inflict heavy losses, and were likely still better man-for man, but would be overwhelmed.
      Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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      • #4
        Yeah its a very one sided ATL.

        posted from mobile
        One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

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        • #5
          How do the Germans 'know' that the Soviets are so much improved in 'soft' factors? If the Soviets performed as they did historically in the Winter War, then the Germans presumably draw the same erroneous conclusion that they did historically and attack. The Germans would obviously not have done nearly as well as they did historically, especially if we're assuming that the Soviets were better prepared for the attack.

          Where it starts to get interesting in a wider context, is for instance do the Japanese go ahead and attack the US at Pearl if the German attack on the Soviet Union gets stuffed near the border? Much of the immediate reaction by Britain and the US was based on concern regarding whether or not the Soviets would survive. That in turn was based on the disastrous results of the early stages of the invasion. How might that reaction differ if the Germans are struggling from the start?

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          • #6
            What about the logistics element? Do the Soviets get 1944 era rear area services or is it the 1941 version?
            Are the soviet forces equipped to 1944 levels with things like radios and other signals equipment or do they have the 1941 shortages? Same for transport and tractors.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by deadkenny View Post
              Where it starts to get interesting in a wider context, is for instance do the Japanese go ahead and attack the US at Pearl if the German attack on the Soviet Union gets stuffed near the border? Much of the immediate reaction by Britain and the US was based on concern regarding whether or not the Soviets would survive. That in turn was based on the disastrous results of the early stages of the invasion. How might that reaction differ if the Germans are struggling from the start?
              The West starts to get very nervous about the USSR very fast. Once the Soviets throw the Germans back, Stalin may see no need to stop with Hitler and attempt to overrun all of Europe. Perhaps the Allies start to lay off the Germans to allow them to concentrate all their forces on the East while they develop their own forces for a possible showdown. The same goes for the Japanese. The Soviets will likely start looking at them as well once they've dealt with Hitler, and the Japanese would probably at this stage switch from an offensive to defensive strategy vs the USSR, pouring all their forces into Manchuria to try and withstand an eventual Soviet attack.
              Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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              • #8
                Originally posted by AdrianE View Post
                What about the logistics element? Do the Soviets get 1944 era rear area services or is it the 1941 version?
                Are the soviet forces equipped to 1944 levels with things like radios and other signals equipment or do they have the 1941 shortages? Same for transport and tractors.
                Well,... the OP stated 1944 Red Army so I would say yes. They may have T-34 M40 and M41s and KV-1 M39 & 40 but with the training/experience and logistics (spares) of 1944 I would submit the panzers have a rough day. When the Red Army counterattacks start erasing grid squares from the map the Wehrmacht would not be long on the campaign trail. A properly developed Red air force, even with 1941 kit would challenge the LW's air supremacy.

                The Germans can die well while the Red Army enters Stuttgart, Bonn and Cologne in late 1942
                Last edited by The Purist; 02 Feb 15, 08:17.
                The Purist

                Words ought to be a little wild, for they are the assault of thoughts on the unthinking - John Maynard Keynes.

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                • #9
                  I am a big Wehrmacht fan but I doubt the 1941 Wehrmacht could defeat the Red Army of 1944. Now if the western allies has vanished in 1944 that would be an interesting question.

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                  • #10
                    With the RKKA 44' structure, its armor distribution will be around 50:50 in armored corps/infantry support units instead of concentrated in the failed 41' mech corps. The armor will, like in 1941, be mostly T-26 and BT-series, but would be used far more effectively.

                    I see the Panzergruppe as being organized a bit differently, with the Inf (Mot.) receiving a battalion of armor from the panzer divisions in light of the rkka infantry support armor. Guderian, Hoth, Kleit, and Hoepner will still be thinking in lines with the benefits of concentration.

                    The Axis will retain higher unit quality and tactical edges, but the lack of anti-tank capability in the infantry divisions will make them vulnerable to attacks by soviet armored formations. Their advances to form pockets will be hampered. The Panzergruppe will be stronger the Tank Armies, but can only defeat them at significant cost to themselves.

                    Ultimately I see some early victories along the border and in the road to Minsk but no further. It would turn into a slugfest in the Western USSR until one side breaks.

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                    • #11
                      If you change the German OOB it is no longer the 1941 Wehrmacht now, is it?

                      In any case the Red Army had tanks set aside for the infantry in 1941 and the Germans did not feel the need to strip tanks out of the pz divisions, which they could not afford to do anyway. It would have meant further weakening the service/maintenace assets within divisions and corps, strain the logistic pipeline and reduce the over all readiness rates. At best you could assign the available StuG III batteries to the motorised divisions (still too few), but again, why?

                      As stated above - 1941 Wehrmacht vs 1944 Red Army. Let the 1941 v 1944OoBs stand and simply accept the verdict that the Red Army would soon defeat the German invasion.

                      After all, 960 T-34, 600 Kv-1 and ~300 KV-II, with properly trained crews, 1944 organisation, logistics, command, etc. are likely to create chaos amongst any German units these formations are committed against. It is not really a contest.
                      The Purist

                      Words ought to be a little wild, for they are the assault of thoughts on the unthinking - John Maynard Keynes.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Cult Icon View Post
                        Ultimately I see some early victories along the border and in the road to Minsk but no further. It would turn into a slugfest in the Western USSR until one side breaks.
                        If the USSR didn't break after losing 40% of its population and industrial production, why do you allow for a second the possibility of it breaking as a result of this "slugfest"? Everything, from morale and logistics to military production, would be much better than in OTL. Probably, even the decrees on "dumbing down" military hardware designs would not have been adopted, leading to the development and production of the T-34m and T-50 in 1942 according to earlier plans.
                        www.histours.ru

                        Siege of Leningrad battlefield tour

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                        • #13
                          I'll explain later:

                          I believe that the RKKA 44' would not achieve the scale of victories they could in 44-45.

                          The front will waver west of Minsk in 1941, attrition would weaken the axis, and then the Wehrmacht would crack like they did after the Summer of 43'.
                          Last edited by Cult Icon; 03 Feb 15, 21:46.

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                          • #14
                            Thread Idea

                            I thought of starting a thread setting the impossible scenario: If June 1, 1944 the Western Allies withdrew from the war, evacuated Italy, could the Germans at that time and in its ever-diminsihing state have turned it around in the east.

                            *** Side note - the west would not provide arms to Germany or any economic assistance, and the deal only done with Germany withdrawing its troops and occupation of Belgium, Norway, Denmark, France, Italy, and Luxembourg () ...... thus also freeing up troops/arms to move east.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Cult Icon View Post
                              I'll explain later:

                              I believe that the RKKA 44' would not achieve the scale of victories they could in 44-45.

                              The front will waver west of Minsk in 1941, attrition would weaken the axis, and then the Wehrmacht would crack like they did after the Summer of 43'.
                              Oh, I don't doubt there wouldn't have been the same victories, but I'm questioning the idea that the much better organised Red Army still had any chances to crack in 1941 vs OTL when it didn't crack. At least this is how I understood your phrase "until one side breaks".
                              www.histours.ru

                              Siege of Leningrad battlefield tour

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