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Shattered Jade: Japanese Götterdämmerung, 1945-1947

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  • #61
    I second that. Against these monsters the German 5cm was completely ineffective. Even the 7.5cm Pak had troubles penetrating these Tanks unless they could ambush them from close range and the right position. Japanese equipment of 45 was no match for heavy Soviet Armor. The gun/armor race that happened in Europe between 41 and 45 simply passed the Japanese. Logistics was the bottleneck. IMO its not the Soviets that would have to learn to counter Jap style warfare, but the other way round. If you dont have the weapons to fight a force like the Red Army you even cannot really counter it by simply adjusting tactics. You need the appropriate equipment. And that takes time. Too much time. Japan was doomed. And there was NO way out.

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    One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by Emtos View Post
      The slopped armor made them far more resilient since Japanese guns achieved those results against vertical plates. It would force the Japanese to use ambushes and really short range which would be not easy in open areas like Manchuria or Hokkaido.
      Well, yes, you are right. But the penetration would increase as range decreases. My point was that the AT weaponry available to the IJA would enable them to take out even the heaviest Soviet vehicles.

      As for Hokkaido, the USSR would not have invaded it, because the operation was cancelled on Stalin's orders following US pressure. Plus it was militarily unfeasible for the RKKA for the reasons listed above (see post # 28). They would not have been able to deploy large numbers of tanks, and the forces they landed (in piecemeal fashion) would have easily been contained.

      Clearing the Japanese Mainland would be left to the Western Allies.
      Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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      • #63
        Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
        Well, yes, you are right. But the penetration would increase as range decreases. My point was that the AT weaponry available to the IJA would enable them to take out even the heaviest Soviet vehicles.

        As for Hokkaido, the USSR would not have invaded it, because the operation was cancelled on Stalin's orders following US pressure. Plus it was militarily unfeasible for the RKKA for the reasons listed above (see post # 28). They would not have been able to deploy large numbers of tanks, and the forces they landed (in piecemeal fashion) would have easily been contained.

        Clearing the Japanese Mainland would be left to the Western Allies.
        Since those guns were produced in limited numbers, they wouldn't be of great deal.

        For Hokkaido, Truman protested against possible Soviet occupation after the Japanese announced their surrender. Had they decided to stay in the war, his position could have been different or Stalin could simply ignore him since the troops were ready and orders given.
        There are no Nazis in Ukraine. © Idiots

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        • #64
          Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
          Well, yes, you are right. But the penetration would increase as range decreases. My point was that the AT weaponry available to the IJA would enable them to take out even the heaviest Soviet vehicles.
          It would have taken an insanely lucky shot for the 47mm to take out an IS-3, even at point blank range.

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          • #65
            European war veteran Sherman drivers wouldn't be screwed up by rice paddy dimes all that much. Experience with the hedgerows would have them well trained for those ambushes.
            Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

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            • #66
              Please do not misinterpret me. I am not suggesting that the Japanese would be able to win or even stalemate the Red Army advance, just as the Germans were unable to meaningfully win against or stalemate them in 1944-1945.

              Remember the earlier scenario about a possible Soviet campaign into China after Manchuria/Korea (post 28)? The Soviets, after consolidating and regrouping to replace the losses of the Manchuria Campaign, would have to overpower the veteran North China Area Army, which would take them to approximately the Yellow River line. Subsequent to this offensive, they could either halt where they were and be satisfied with their territorial gain, or push even further southward and assist the Chinese in smashing the 6th Area Army in south-central China. Afterwards, the 6-odd divisions the Japanese have left would find themselves cut off, and would face annihilation.

              What I am stating is that the Soviets and Chinese were more than capable of achieving victory over the China Expeditionary Army and its satellites. But, this victory would by no means be a one-sided walkover as some here seem intent on portraying it as. It would be an enormous, lengthy, and extremely bloody campaign over an area the size of Eastern Europe, the final toll of which would likely run into the millions and involve massive use of weapons of mass destruction by the Japanese.

              As for the 47mm vs IS-3: the point was that it was still capable of scoring a disabling hit. The Japanese still had other AT weapons at their disposal, as mentioned above.
              Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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              • #67
                Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
                ...But, this victory would by no means be a one-sided walkover as some here seem intent on portraying it as. It would be an enormous, lengthy, and extremely bloody campaign over an area the size of Eastern Europe, the final toll of which would likely run into the millions and involve massive use of weapons of mass destruction by the Japanese....
                I believe the historical outcome of the Soviet Manchurian campaign would be a reasonable comparable, and I don't see Soviet losses running into the millions.

                Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
                ...As for the 47mm vs IS-3: the point was that it was still capable of scoring a disabling hit. The Japanese still had other AT weapons at their disposal, as mentioned above.
                Theoretically possible and likely are quite different. I'm not saying that not a single IS-3 would be lost, but the Japanese would be losing alot of AT guns, and their crews, in order to take out a small number of Soviet tanks. The Soviets faced far superior AT capability fighting the Germans, and succeeded with tanks that were not as powerful as the IS-3. No reason to use large numbers of T-34s (even the 85s) in a landing in Hokkaido. A smaller number of later war models would make more sense.

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by deadkenny View Post
                  I believe the historical outcome of the Soviet Manchurian campaign would be a reasonable comparable, and I don't see Soviet losses running into the millions... No reason to use large numbers of T-34s (even the 85s) in a landing in Hokkaido. A smaller number of later war models would make more sense.
                  The Soviet Manchurian Campaign was unfinished in real life. Again, this was mentioned earlier in the thread. The majority of the Kwantung Army ended the war more or less intact, and much of the Soviets' forward progress was achieved after the ceasefire.

                  Remember: The Kwantung Army was in a state of redeployment when the Soviets struck. It was realigning to new positions for a defensive campaign in which they would conduct a fighting retreat across the territory, then hunker down in Southern Manchuria/Korea. This was in recognition of the fact that the Kwantung Army formations were mostly, by this time, only at between 15 and 30 percent combat efficiency.

                  The Japanese Armies in China at this time had no such problem. Transfers from China had been relatively light compared to Manchuria, and the troops there were veteran combat formations with a full compliment of equipment.
                  To completely annihilate the Japanese in Manchuria, Korea, as well as the North China Area Army (not to mention the 6th Area Army or the rest of the CEA), could easily have cost a million Soviet casualties (not including the casualties of Chinese troops and civilians).

                  As for Hokkaido, even if Stalin changed his mind and decided to go ahead with the operation:

                  1. It would have been a limited, piecemeal affair on the Northern coast.
                  2. It would be conducted primarily by infantry, as the Soviets lacked logistical support for large armored landings.
                  3. Any Soviet beach head would easily be contained by the Japanese. The landing would be more a political coup for Stalin than the start of a campaign to conquer Hokkaido.
                  Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
                    The Soviet Manchurian Campaign was unfinished in real life. Again, this was mentioned earlier in the thread. The majority of the Kwantung Army ended the war more or less intact, and much of the Soviets' forward progress was achieved after the ceasefire.

                    Remember: The Kwantung Army was in a state of redeployment when the Soviets struck. It was realigning to new positions for a defensive campaign in which they would conduct a fighting retreat across the territory, then hunker down in Southern Manchuria/Korea. This was in recognition of the fact that the Kwantung Army formations were mostly, by this time, only at between 15 and 30 percent combat efficiency.

                    The Japanese Armies in China at this time had no such problem. Transfers from China had been relatively light compared to Manchuria, and the troops there were veteran combat formations with a full compliment of equipment.
                    To completely annihilate the Japanese in Manchuria, Korea, as well as the North China Area Army (not to mention the 6th Area Army or the rest of the CEA), could easily have cost a million Soviet casualties (not including the casualties of Chinese troops and civilians).

                    As for Hokkaido, even if Stalin changed his mind and decided to go ahead with the operation:

                    1. It would have been a limited, piecemeal affair on the Northern coast.
                    2. It would be conducted primarily by infantry, as the Soviets lacked logistical support for large armored landings.
                    3. Any Soviet beach head would easily be contained by the Japanese. The landing would be more a political coup for Stalin than the start of a campaign to conquer Hokkaido.
                    I suspect that you would see an easing m in Europe, of the JCS1067 to allow occupied Germany to rebuild and repair heavy equipment and the allied fleet of LCUs.

                    This would allow the import of food into Germany form Neutral nations & form Scandinavia, the Netherlands, etc.

                    In the last weeks of the war, both state and economy had virtually collapsed. There was plenty of money, but there were hardly any goods to buy. Prices were still regulated, so the store shelves were empty - who had something to offer didn't want to sell cheap. People toured the countryside, went from farm to farm trying to trade their Persian carpet for a bag of potatos (Hamstern).
                    US soldiers, who were supplied with free chocolate and cigarettes, seeing the despair of the people, generously distributed those, especially to children and to girls. US cigarettes soon became a Surrogate Currency, on the emerging Black Market everything was paid for in cigarettes. On Dec. 31st 1946, in the middle of the first severe post-war winter, Cardinal Frings, Archbishop of Cologne, in his sermon declared that theft in times of an existence-threatening emergency was acceptable; the acquisition of coal, wood etc. without pay then became known as "Fringsen". On Cologne's railway station, 900 tons of coal per day 'disappeared'.


                    http://www.zum.de/whkmla/region/germ...r4548west.html

                    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_...r_World_War_II
                    There would be a 'coerced movement' of millions of Germans to Canada and the United States, as shipping to Europe would be curtailed.

                    I can't see any invasion until the fall of 1946. He3rbicides and incendiaries are cheaper to produce and ship .
                    The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

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                    • #70
                      Vegetable Warfare

                      As marktwain and others have stated, the US did contemplate the use of chemical warfare against Japan's agricultural sector in the hopes of shortening the war.

                      http://www.warhistoryonline.com/feat...ese-crops.html

                      The US estimated that they had enough herbicides to destroy up to one-tenth of Japan's rice crop in July 1945, which would have been catastrophic in a Japan already on the brink of starvation. This would be bad news for the IJA, which would see its rations cut yet again.

                      The Japanese might try to retaliate against the US somehow, such as bacteriological bombs dropped by seaplanes, but efforts in this category would probably be ineffective.
                      (It might actually anger the US further, backfiring on the Japanese fascists and resulting in counter-reprisals against Japan...)
                      Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Emtos View Post
                        Since those guns were produced in limited numbers, they wouldn't be of great deal.

                        For Hokkaido, Truman protested against possible Soviet occupation after the Japanese announced their surrender. Had they decided to stay in the war, his position could have been different or Stalin could simply ignore him since the troops were ready and orders given.
                        http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/CGSC/CAR...er/945PEAB.pdf

                        A list of the forces on Hokkaido and the Kirill Islands in 1945
                        The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

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                        • #72
                          The Grim Prediction

                          http://www.history.army.mil/books/ww...%20P2/ch19.htm

                          From the standpoint of decisive battle planning, the most dangerous basic material shortage was that of oil.18 By the end of June, the quarterly gross national production and import of crude and refined petroleum had fallen to 24% of the wartime peak established in the period July-September 1943, and the inventory of 4,751,000 barrels was only about 8% of what had been on hand at the beginning of the war.19 Of this, only about 606,000 barrels were aviation gasoline, of which 333,900 barrels were earmarked for decisive battle operations.

                          Despite a reduction in operations to within 80% of expectations, including rigid curtailment of training flights and elimination of all operational flights except those connected with the continued prosecution of Ten-Go,20 consumption still ran about 188,600 barrels in June against a production of about 98,000 barrels.21 Although aviation gasoline was to be supplemented by alcohol and other substitute fuels, the projected margin between requirements and

                          [617]


                          inventories was so exceedingly narrow that, particularly if the enemy continued to bomb refineries and tank farms, it was doubtful whether the decisive air battle could be fought later than the end of 1945
                          The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

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                          • #73
                            I believe one idea was for Operation Downfall and Olympic was to hit the landing areas with atomic weapons then send the Marines in. They knew little about fallout then. There'd be a lot very sick and dying Marines thereafter...

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                            • #74
                              Originally posted by copenhagen View Post
                              I believe one idea was for Operation Downfall and Olympic was to hit the landing areas with atomic weapons then send the Marines in. They knew little about fallout then. There'd be a lot very sick and dying Marines thereafter...
                              You are right. For the first landing, Operation Olympic in Kyushu, Marshall's dislike of atomic weapons "wasted" on strategic bombing lead to the plan to drop 6 on the first Jap. line of defense then another 3 on the counterattacking reserves. At the time, the US thought any negative effects from radiation would dissipate after about 48 hours.

                              Originally posted by T.A. Gardner
                              Actually, as testing in the 50's demonstrated, the effects of a bomb 48 hours before, 2 hours before, would be minimal or non-existent on US troops in terms of the battle space and time...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Plumbbob

                              30 minutes after one of these tests the US Army marched a 1000 man battalion in nothing but normal uniforms across ground zero. It would make zero difference in terms of the battle.
                              This is not to say it would have had horrid consequences for the soldiers and their families down the road. Imagine the baby boomers being remembered as the generation that was horribly disfigured due to radiation effects and cancer... it would have a permanent effect on American history.
                              Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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                              • #75
                                Also, a slight alteration to the composition of the Japanese 12th Area Army defending the Tokyo Area. Due to inconsistencies between the maps in Giangreco's book and the Order of Battle provided by the Japanese after the war in marktwain's link, "The Reports of General MacArthur," the 12th Area Army was slightly stronger than I posted earlier.

                                Order of Battle for 12th Area Army is as follows:

                                Kashima Sea Area

                                Fifty-first Army-Lt. Gen. Kengo Noda
                                44th Division
                                151st Division
                                221st Division
                                115th Independent Mixed Brigade
                                116th Independent Mixed Brigade
                                7th Tank Brigade

                                Kujukuri Beach Area

                                Fifty-second Army-Lt. Gen. Tokumatsu Shigeta
                                3d Imperial Guards Division
                                147th Division
                                152d Division
                                234th Division
                                3d Tank Brigade

                                Sagami Bay Area

                                Fifty-third Army-Lt. Gen. Yaezo Akashiba
                                84th Division
                                140th Division
                                316th Division
                                117th Independent Mixed Brigade
                                2d Tank Brigade

                                Central Kanto (Central Mobile Reserve)

                                Thirty-sixth Army-Lt. Gen. Toshimichi Uemura
                                81st Division
                                93d Division
                                201st Division
                                202d Division
                                209th Division
                                214th Division
                                1st Armored Division
                                4th Armored Division

                                Southern Chiba Prefecture

                                Tokyo Bay Group-Lt. Gen. Shihei Oba
                                354th Division
                                96th Independent Mixed Brigade

                                Miura Peninsula

                                Yokosuka Naval Station Force-Vice Adm. Michitaro Totsuka
                                Yokosuka Combined Special Landing Force
                                11th to 26th Naval Landing Parties
                                114th Independent Mixed Brigade
                                Special-Attack forces

                                Tokyo

                                Tokyo Defense Army-Lt. Gen. Jo Iimura
                                1st Garrison Brigade
                                2d Garrison Brigade
                                3d Garrison Brigade

                                Izu Islands

                                O-shima
                                321st Division
                                Nii-Jima
                                66th Independent Mixed Brigade
                                Hachijo-Jima
                                67th Independent Mixed Brigade
                                According to this, the 12th Area Army consisted of 20 divisions and 13 brigades, plus the Yokosuka SNLF. Combined with the reinforcements of up to 8 divisions, the 12th Area Army would have 28 divisions and 13 brigades with which to fight 40+ Allied divisions and other smaller units attacking Tokyo.

                                --Edit--

                                Originally posted by marktwain
                                From the standpoint of decisive battle planning, the most dangerous basic material shortage was that of oil.18 By the end of June, the quarterly gross national production and import of crude and refined petroleum had fallen to 24% of the wartime peak established in the period July-September 1943, and the inventory of 4,751,000 barrels was only about 8% of what had been on hand at the beginning of the war.19 Of this, only about 606,000 barrels were aviation gasoline, of which 333,900 barrels were earmarked for decisive battle operations.

                                Despite a reduction in operations to within 80% of expectations, including rigid curtailment of training flights and elimination of all operational flights except those connected with the continued prosecution of Ten-Go,20 consumption still ran about 188,600 barrels in June against a production of about 98,000 barrels.21 Although aviation gasoline was to be supplemented by alcohol and other substitute fuels, the projected margin between requirements and

                                [617]


                                inventories was so exceedingly narrow that, particularly if the enemy continued to bomb refineries and tank farms, it was doubtful whether the decisive air battle could be fought later than the end of 1945.
                                This is why the Japanese were so loathe to commit aerial assets to defend their cities against US bombing raids: they wanted to hoard the aviation fuel for the final defense of the Homeland, leading some US analysts to the false conclusion that the Japanese Air Forces had been finished.
                                Last edited by BobTheBarbarian; 31 Jan 15, 11:05.
                                Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

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