Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Shattered Jade: Japanese Götterdämmerung, 1945-1947

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
    Why invade. Killing off the crops from the air and let them starve. Start forest fires to destroy fuel supplies of wood. The people of the Home Islands were not going anyplace and what forces outside the Home Islands had no way and no place to go .
    Our pre-bomb options were:

    1. Invade and take the country by force.

    2. Blockade and starve them out.

    3. Declare victory and pack up and go home.

    1. Was the plan we had.

    2. Would require a standing force of troops not doing anything except siege duty, something even Henry V thought wasteful. It's also expensive.

    3. Non-starter because it left the Japanese in control of large chunks of Asia.
    Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
    Hyperwar, Whats New
    World War II Resources
    The best place in the world to "work".

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
      So the Soviets would have had little difficulty exterminating a force of nearly 1 million armed men, who had already inflicted 36,456 casualties on some of their best formations, (...)
      Very much indeed Sir! The Soviets had done this before - against German troops in Bagration. The Soviet advance (in terms of distance) was without equal. They achieved this because they fought poorly trained and equipped units. Huge pincers are not to kill enemies but to cut them off and make them surrender or mince-meat them when isolated and without supply if they refuse to give up. So your loss comparisons are not telling the whole picture.


      Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
      (...) and then still have been able to conduct large scale offensive actions into China and Korea? I don't think that's something any army would be able to take in stride.(...)
      I agree. As soon as the Soviets reach the end of their logistical trail they have to stop. Depending on the infrastructure, their efforts, the enemy etc. it would take time before they could roll again. But as soon as they roll it would - again - be a very one-sided event. T-34/85, Stalin Tanks, ISU-122, massed Artillery etc. against what? Against obsolete crap!

      Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
      Whether or not my hypotheses are right, the suicidal fanaticism of the Japanese soldier, even those of the depleted Kwantung Army, should never be underestimated in its ability to produce mass casualties (on all sides).
      I think the key word is suicidal. The huffy way of suicidal Banzai and stuff had an ability to produce mass casualties. But imo not on all sides, but especially for the IJA.
      Last edited by Hanov; 27 Jan 15, 08:50.
      One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

      Comment


      • #18
        IMHO there was no hope whatsoever of Japan fighting successfully to obtain a 'negotiated' settlement. Being allowed to retain the emperor was about as far from a truly unconditional surrender as they were going to get. If they had fought to the bitter end, as suggested in the OP, they likely would not have even gotten that. Furthermore I expect that actual US losses in the home island invasions would have turned out to get somewhat lower than the 'worst case' figures being put out before the invasions. I suspect that some of the late war forces, especially the poorly equipped 'militia' for defense of the home islands, would have been less willing to die to the last man (or woman!) in an obviously lost cause than regular Japanese forces had been earlier in the war. Later in the war some Japanese forces started to surrender (e.g. Okinawa). They would also have been less effective at inflicting losses on the US.

        I think some of the more important impacts would have been in the post-war situation in Asia. If the fighting had dragged on into what started to be the Cold War there may have been less and less cooperation. As has been previously noted, there may have been a separate communist state of Manchuria, with a united communist Korea and the US may have committed forces to ensure that the remainder of China remained non-communist. Perhaps the Soviets may have invaded Hokkaido, with the result that Japan may have ended up 'partitioned' with a communist North Japan.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
          Whether or not my hypotheses are right, the suicidal fanaticism of the Japanese soldier, even those of the depleted Kwantung Army, should never be underestimated in its ability to produce mass casualties (on all sides).
          This was the reason we didn't hesitate to use the atomic bombs. We needed an impact on the highest leadership that would cause them to call a halt to the war. Casualty projections based on data from previous invasions were very high, and were probably rather low.
          Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
          Hyperwar, Whats New
          World War II Resources
          The best place in the world to "work".

          Comment


          • #20
            As I understand it the gyokusai attacks were based on the premise that the American will to fight could be shattered by determined mass attacks. This is what happened at the Ilyu (Teneru) River battle IIRC.
            Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
            Hyperwar, Whats New
            World War II Resources
            The best place in the world to "work".

            Comment


            • #21
              Dupe.
              Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
              Hyperwar, Whats New
              World War II Resources
              The best place in the world to "work".

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian
                I think you're being too dismissive of the IJA. They were not cavemen, they were a modern army! The Soviets themselves certainly didn't consider the Japanese as "weak." Not that the Japanese would have been able to drive the Soviets out of China, (they were also facing a massive offensive by the Chinese in the South), but they would have offered much stiffer opposition once the Soviets reached their experienced formations in Central China.
                Please don't get me wrong. I don't want to leave the impression of underestimating the abilities of the IJA. I'm still fascinated by what the Japanese achieved in 41/42. But i think by 1945 both, the IJA and the Wehrmacht were bled out. They were a shadow of the forces they represented 3 or 4 years earlier. The problem for the IJA facing the Red Army was that the Red Army had transformed into a monster Force compared to what it was in 1939. Whereas the IJA...
                Just look at the Tank/Panzer development in Europe/USA from 1939 to 1945. The Japanese fielded few Tanks and those had a level which was completely obsolete compared to what the USSR, USA, GB/CW or Germany had by that time. The Soviets had just won the biggest conflict of mankind, had built the largest and most fearsome Attack Force in the World. You cannot compensate/counter that with fanatism.

                Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian
                Remember Operation Ichi-go? It was a huge blitzkrieg operation by the Japanese against the Chinese Army/US 14th Air force in 1944. It involved 510,000 soldiers, 6,000 artillery pieces, 15,500 trucks, close to 1,000 tanks, around 700 planes, and 100,000 horses. According to General Stilwell, this offensive, in addition to overrunning many 14th Air Force bomber bases, annihilated four Chinese Armies, killed 300,000 soldiers, wounded over 100,000 more, and captured 80,000. The Allies lost 6,723 Artillery pieces, 190 planes, and thousands of motor vehicles, compared to about ~100,000 Japanese casualties. This was the last great Axis victory of WWII.
                Thats grapes compared to apples. Remember June 22nd, 1941? Barbarossa? The Germans captured over 3 million Soviet Troops. What happened exactly three years later on June 22nd, 1944?
                Imagine the IJA would have faced Soviet troops and equipment in Operation Ichi-go. You think the outcome would have been the same?

                Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian
                'Banzai charges' were not the IJA's primary infantry doctrine. In fact, gyokusai (shattering of the Jade) attacks are not referenced in Japan's infantry tactics manuals at all. They resulted when Japanese units, cornered and without possibility of escape, usually starving and out of ammunition as well, realized that they had effectively 'lost,' and saw no other alternative but an honorable death in battle, taking with them as many of the enemy as possible. They were less an attack, and more mass-suicide, ie, Japan's alternative to surrender.
                I know when and why the Japanese started their Banzai charges. I merely tried to point out, that fanatism wont help you if you're equipped with rifles, MGs, some small caliber AT-guns and Artillery, but your Enemy fields monster tanks, massive Artillery, dominates the Skies above you and stuff. The Japanese were done in 1945.
                One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
                  As I understand it the gyokusai attacks were based on the premise that the American will to fight could be shattered by determined mass attacks. This is what happened at the Ilyu (Teneru) River battle IIRC.
                  This was different from the traditional "banzai" attacks such as those encountered on Saipan, Tarawa, Attu, etc. IIRC, it was a foolhardy frontal assault (but not necessarily a banzai charge) against entrenched marine positions from across a river, lead by an overconfident officer who grossly underestimated his enemy. Other instances, such as Edson's Ridge, convey an image of aggressive close infantry assaults through unfavorable terrain by a force unsure of what it was facing. Time and again, the Japanese on Guadalcanal either underestimated/had little idea of their opposition, mostly due to a lack on intelligence/communication, leading to disasters such as the aforementioned actions. (Even then, on Edson's Ridge and around Henderson Field, the issue was sometimes in doubt.)
                  Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian
                    The US would never have permitted this to take place. It would have been a military/political catastrophe waiting to happen (see post #9).
                    I don't agree with post 9. It is my understanding that the US only opposed a Soviet occupation after Japan had surrendered. The US itself had supplied the Soviets with considerable amphib assets. The Soviets had been planning on an invasion and presumably would have carried it out if Japan was still fighting. Are you suggesting that the US would have militarily opposed the Soviets if they had launched their invasion?


                    Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian
                    I think you're being too dismissive of the IJA. They were not cavemen, they were a modern army! The Soviets themselves certainly didn't consider the Japanese as "weak." Not that the Japanese would have been able to drive the Soviets out of China, (they were also facing a massive offensive by the Chinese in the South), but they would have offered much stiffer opposition once the Soviets reached their experienced formations in Central China.
                    The Japanese had a difficult time against the Red Army in 1939. They were seriously outclassed by the veterans of the war against Germany. The German AGC was a 'modern army' in 1944 as well, and in fact better equipped than the Japanese. I think if you consider what happened in Manchuria in August '44, it would be pretty much the same where ever and whenever the Soviets attacked the Japanese.

                    Originally posted by BobTheBarbarian
                    Remember Operation Ichi-go? It was a huge blitzkrieg operation by the Japanese against the Chinese Army/US 14th Air force in 1944. It involved 510,000 soldiers, 6,000 artillery pieces, 15,500 trucks, close to 1,000 tanks, around 700 planes, and 100,000 horses. According to General Stilwell, this offensive, in addition to overrunning many 14th Air Force bomber bases, annihilated four Chinese Armies, killed 300,000 soldiers, wounded over 100,000 more, and captured 80,000. The Allies lost 6,723 Artillery pieces, 190 planes, and thousands of motor vehicles, compared to about ~100,000 Japanese casualties. This was the last great Axis victory of WWII.
                    The Nationalist Chinese army was worlds apart from the Red Army of 1945. Similarly the Japanese would have seen a very different result, offensively or defensively, against the Red Army in '45.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Another interesting thought which I'll expound on later is that the Soviet Union could find itself in a very poor position early in the cold war if the Japanese manage to hold out for another year. The falling out with the west is inevitable. But if the west still has reason to maintain a war footing. ...then stalin could find himself stretched thin trying to control Europe and fight in Asia while also maintaining his nation's ascendancy.

                      A continuous war with Japan would keep the west on a war footing and mean that there would be a likely more aggressive response to Soviet action in Europe. I would not be surprised to see the US arming german pows and sending them back to Germany as a west german army in 1946. The west has this option in 46. The soviets do not yet have control of the eastern European countries to a reliable degree. ....and therefore they must deploy their reliable army in Europe as well as send it to the east. Plus maintain it and the country entirely on their own resources.

                      Maintaining a Soviet China is also problematic in 46 as there is no red navy to speak of and the land routes between the two are crap. Otoh the sea routes to China are big and easily secured by the huge western fleets.
                      Tacitos, Satrap of Kyrene

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        MacArthur wanted the Soviets to invade in the north to distract at least some of the forces away from the southern front.
                        Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
                        Hyperwar, Whats New
                        World War II Resources
                        The best place in the world to "work".

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Half Pint John View Post
                          Why invade. Killing off the crops from the air and let them starve. Start forest fires to destroy fuel supplies of wood. The people of the Home Islands were not going anyplace and what forces outside the Home Islands had no way and no place to go .
                          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbicide

                          Good catch. The market garden vegetables would have been wiped out,and the deciduous trees would be defoliated, if not killed outright, making a burn much easier .

                          rice in 1945 -46 would not be affected by 24,d and MCPA.
                          The trout who swims against the current gets the most oxygen..

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
                            MacArthur wanted the Soviets to invade in the north to distract at least some of the forces away from the southern front.
                            In "American Caesar" pg 428, William Manchester describes MacArthur's support for a Soviet attack on Manchuria, not the Home Islands, as a way to prevent the Japanese from reinforcing the Mainland.

                            ...the Soviets "would have to be induced to come into Manchuria with sixty divisions if we were to conquer Japan."
                            pg 431:
                            He looked forward to Soviet entry in the Pacific war; by engaging a million Japanese and taking the sting out of their air force, he reckoned, Stalin would distract the enemy and save thousands of lives.
                            Manchuria was not the Home Islands, and MacArthur was not the Pentagon.
                            Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Well, he asked Marshall to make sure that they invaded Japan.
                              Hyperwar: World War II on the World Wide Web
                              Hyperwar, Whats New
                              World War II Resources
                              The best place in the world to "work".

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by OpanaPointer View Post
                                Well, he asked Marshall to make sure that they invaded Japan.
                                When? What reputable source says this?
                                Last edited by BobTheBarbarian; 07 Oct 20, 19:35.
                                Divine Mercy Sunday: 4/21/2020 (https://www.thedivinemercy.org/message) The Miracle of Lanciano: Jesus' Real Presence (https://web.archive.org/web/20060831...fcontents.html)

                                Comment

                                Latest Topics

                                Collapse

                                Working...
                                X